CHICAGO: ORD & MDW discussion

[trvlr70]

[QUOTE=Kngkyle;7231662]Yep, next summer we'll have 3 flights on 3 different carriers to both Beijing and Shanghai, plus 2 more daily flights to Hong Kong. Capacity from Chicago to China is almost as much as to England.

Fares are definitely competitive though, suggesting they're struggling to fill all the capacity. Last week I saw United had some round trips to Beijing for as low as $603 all-in. If it wasn't for the low fuel prices they'd all probably be losing their shirt on these routes. (and they might be anyway)[/QU

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

China Eastern today (11NOV15) opened reservation for planned new US service, where it plans 3 weekly Shanghai Pu Dong – Chicago flights. First flight is scheduled on 18MAR16, using Boeing 777-300ER aircraft.

--

Another new international carrier and more service to China.

A source of mine said it will be daily shortly after launch, and year-around not seasonal service.

Coincidentally, March 16th is also the day Icelandair begins service from Reykjavik.

[Kngkyle]

2015 is looking to be a blockbuster year for ORD growth.

Through November, O'Hare has already passed the FY 2014 pax total by nearly a million. If December has the same growth rate, the final tally will reach 77 million, the highest number in well over 15 years. The growth has been accelerating in the past 3 months especially. It looks like ORD will re-pass LHR and LAX at the very least, perhaps DXB. Atlanta is definitely beyond reach and will end at over 100 million, Beijing probably not far behind.

All the while aircraft movements are actually down 0.44%, meaning all of this growth is coming from the use of larger planes, not more flights.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

2015 is looking to be a blockbuster year for ORD growth.

Through November, O'Hare has already passed the FY 2014 pax total by nearly a million. If December has the same growth rate, the final tally will reach 77 million, the highest number in well over 15 years. The growth has been accelerating in the past 3 months especially. It looks like ORD will re-pass LHR and LAX at the very least, perhaps DXB. Atlanta is definitely beyond reach and will end at over 100 million, Beijing probably not far behind.

All the while aircraft movements are actually down 0.44%, meaning all of this growth is coming from the use of larger planes, not more flights.

Hear any news on the new gates??

All the aircraft movement drops can be attributed mostly to the Regional pilot shortage and drop in flights. Republic, one that was really affected flies the bigger regional jets. Chicago needs to focus on catching up to ATL more and less on it's growth numbers. Everybody is growing!! I have noticed ORD-LHR have dropped passenger count alot this year..

[kbud]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

Hear any news on the new gates??

I have noticed ORD-LHR have dropped passenger count alot this year..

It's pretty amazing. There was a prediction that BA and AA would have shuttle type service when their JV went through several years ago. BA has been flying double daily to LHR from ORD for over a decade now with no growth in seat count or frequency. AA flew nonstop on this route 5 times a day with a 777 about 5 years ago in the summer. This summer they'll only have three nonstops and not one 77W planned. In fact one of the frequencies will be with a 763. UA still flies their 763s on this route. I understand this allows them to offer First class, but these planes are so dated. I'd love to see BA start a 3rd nonstop, maybe be the launch carrier for the A380 to ORD or 77Ws for AA, but I doubt it.

I guess the Middle Eastern carriers have gobbled up all the growth across the pond...

[trvlr70]

^^^^^
Years ago, Chicago was one of just a hand full of cities with nonstops to LHR, but today, there are many more options. Travelers don't need to connect via ORD to London and beyond as much.

[kbud]

I'd agree with that for 25 years ago, but for the last 5 years I'm not sure. I can't remember a new airline route pair to LHR from the US other than Austin in this time period. I feel that they haven't attempted to grow on this route versus others growing between ORD and Europe and the Middle East (Turkish, Austrian, SAS, Swiss, Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, Aer Lingus have grown in this time period out of ORD). I understand the lack of growth for Air France, KLM and Virgin because of alliances. But AA/BA on the LHR to ORD route and AA across Europe is disappointing.

[k1052]

Article in Crains this morning about city plan to build out 9C/27C, more taxiways, and a deicing pad. Extension of 9R/27L shelved for the foreseeable future. Reportedly United is on board and American's assent is expected.

More details about other projects at the airport are to be forthcoming once this agreement in place. Hopefully that means adding gates sooner rather than later.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by k1052

Article in Crains this morning about city plan to build out 9C/27C, more taxiways, and a deicing pad. Extension of 9R/27L shelved for the foreseeable future. Reportedly United is on board and American's assent is expected.

More details about other projects at the airport are to be forthcoming once this agreement in place. Hopefully that means adding gates sooner rather than later.

I think the fight is going to be about who get the most new gates. To bad the FAA made the mistake of making the inside runway the departure runway. Departures take delays waiting to take off(and now deice if they build another deice pad next to it). Arrivals either go to the gate or to the pad waiting area and leave the runway area. Having departures close to the terminal makes it so that lines of aircraft block inbounds from crossing over to get to the terminal, and now they will also have deice lines blocking inbounds from getting to the terminal. Really bad planning.

[k1052]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

I think the fight is going to be about who get the most new gates.

Well UA and AA still maintain there is no gate shortage. I suspect their tune is going to change since they both actually do have gate shortages now that they rebanked (which is compounded by bad weather) and their leases are coming up. They'll have to play ball with the city unless they want to start loosing gates to the smaller airlines and LCCs flying a bunch of cheap seats that are just itching for more market access.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by k1052

Well UA and AA still maintain there is no gate shortage. I suspect their tune is going to change since they both actually do have gate shortages now that they rebanked (which is compounded by bad weather) and their leases are coming up. They'll have to play ball with the city unless they want to start loosing gates to the smaller airlines and LCCs flying a bunch of cheap seats that are just itching for more market access.

True, but UA already has more gates than AA. If I were the city I would not get to cocky. This is the last city with 2 major airline hubs at one airport. What happened to ATL and DFW could happen here.

[k1052]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

True, but UA already has more gates than AA. If I were the city I would not get to cocky. This is the last city with 2 major airline hubs at one airport. What happened to ATL and DFW could happen here.

I don't think they're going to swing for the fences on a 70-80 gate full western terminal build but I think 20ish new gates is a distinct possibility with the bulk going to UA/AA and a few bones thrown to the upstarts.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by k1052

I don't think they're going to swing for the fences on a 70-80 gate full western terminal build but I think 20ish new gates is a distinct possibility with the bulk going to UA/AA and a few bones thrown to the upstarts.

Someone said 12-16, with a conversion down by the end of T5 by 2018. I think on this thread.........

[rlw777]

Anyone else notice that the map from the Crain's article included a western terminal?

[k1052]

That map has been around for a good while.

[kbud]

Yeah, that design is over a decade old now. But I still like that original plan to add T4 (AA & One World) and T6 (Delta). But I can't imagine UA accepting this if it doesn't also include bulldozing T2 for them and Star Alliance. I think the western terminal is overkill if you don't do T4 and T6 first.

[N830MH]

Originally Posted by kbud

Yeah, that design is over a decade old now. But I still like that original plan to add T4 (AA & One World) and T6 (Delta). But I can't imagine UA accepting this if it doesn't also include bulldozing T2 for them and Star Alliance. I think the western terminal is overkill if you don't do T4 and T6 first.

Are they going to build new Western Terminal? Is that only for UA & Star Alliance partners, as well.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

2015 is looking to be a blockbuster year for ORD growth.

Through November, O'Hare has already passed the FY 2014 pax total by nearly a million. If December has the same growth rate, the final tally will reach 77 million, the highest number in well over 15 years. The growth has been accelerating in the past 3 months especially. It looks like ORD will re-pass LHR and LAX at the very least, perhaps DXB. Atlanta is definitely beyond reach and will end at over 100 million, Beijing probably not far behind.

All the while aircraft movements are actually down 0.44%, meaning all of this growth is coming from the use of larger planes, not more flights.

What explains this surge after decades losing ground? Is this strong growth likely to be kept in the next years?

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

What explains this surge after decades losing ground? Is this strong growth likely to be kept in the next years?

Upgauging of equipment mostly. 50 seat RJs being swapped for 70 seat RJs, 70 RJs being swapped for 737s, etc. The number of actual flights has been pretty flat.

The growth from that should continue for another year at least and I don't see any reversal in sight with gas prices so low and the (US) airlines printing money. Frontier is also continuing to grow at ORD, announcing flights to 7 new cities just last week - Portland, Seattle, St. Augustine, Kansas City, Nashville, Charlotte, and Minneapolis. They are still peanuts compared to UA and AA though.

On the international front, there are a few additions/changes this year:

China Eastern 777-300ER daily to Shanghai starting in April, bringing ORD to 3 daily flights to Shanghai.
Icelandair is starting 4x weekly service to Reykjavik also in April.
Korean Air to Seoul is swapping out the 777-300ER for the 747-8i on their daily flight.
Finnair to Oslo will operate 5x weekly this year, up from 3x weekly last year with A330-300 equipment.

Lufthansa has canceled seasonal service to Dusseldorf for 2016.

And a couple minor changes to Canada/Mexico.

[kbud]

Originally Posted by N830MH

Are they going to build new Western Terminal? Is that only for UA & Star Alliance partners, as well.

The plan for the western terminal is relatively old. There is nothing concrete about that being built. Even when the plan was revealed it was never revealed who would occupy it.

ORD T5 is heavily restricted and is hampering int'l growth with more gates and larger gates, and desired service by the new carriers that want dedicated lounges.

So is T1. UA can only park the new 787s in 777 capable gates. Where as the 767s can park in between concourse C and B. It'll be interesting to see how United handles this, keep the 767 around for 40 years? I hope not as those planes are so crappy now.