PHILADELPHIA-CAMDEN-WILMINGTON-ATLANTIC CITY-READING | Metro Development Thread

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Redddog

This is negative and misleading. The entire reason they stayed in Conshy is because all the current big wigs all live on the Mail Line. It has nothing to do with Philly in general. Same thing happened to me. All the jerks I used to work for lived out there. When our Ritt Square lease was up they made some weak effort to "find a place" in the city. Everyone of the C-suites lived out on the mainline. Everyone else lived in the city.

Guess where the new office ended up?

Conshy. They lost 3-4 people (me included) because of that commute.

I'm not disagreeing with you but this article is about Boomi moving from Berwyn to Conshohocken. Not to Conshohocken from Center City.

No doubt executives make these decisions based on where they live. That's one of many reasons why more and more housing in Center City is good. Periodically, we're gonna be the beneficiary of one of those selfish decisions the more people who live here.

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I'm not disagreeing with you but this article is about Boomi moving from Berwyn to Conshohocken. Not to Conshohocken from Center City.

No doubt executives make these decisions based on where they live. That's one of many reasons why more and more housing in Center City is good. Periodically, we're gonna be the beneficiary of one of those selfish decisions the more people who live here.

Ya. I feel like it is so incredibly short-sighted. If your goal is to attract young talent (which it should be), moving out to the burbs will severely limit your ability to recruit.

It's basic math. And let's not forget the city tax. Until they address that meaningfully, it will always be a "con" to overcome. It seems so elementary and yet so far away.

[PHLtoNYC]

For the data nerds, prelim 2023 population data is out. Fun to review, but take this with a grain of salt.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...cal-areas.html
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philad...-20240314.html

The Philadelphia metro posted small growth (mostly in Montgo, Bucks, Chesco), but looks like the city declined by 16,000 residents from 2022 to 2023, which I find hard to believe...

Atlanta passed both Philly & DC metros in population, that was bound to happen.

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by PHLtoNYC

For the data nerds, prelim 2023 population data is out. Fun to review, but take this with a grain of salt.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...cal-areas.html
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philad...-20240314.html

The Philadelphia metro posted small growth (mostly in Montgo, Bucks, Chesco), but looks like the city declined by 16,000 residents from 2022 to 2023, which I find hard to believe...

Atlanta passed both Philly & DC metros in population, that was bound to happen.

Me too. But we did better than NY, Chicago and LA. So there's that. I bet with the WFH essentially ending, we're gonna see those numbers rebound.

[3rd&Brown]

The narrative in this article is so interesting. It assumes that all this movement is people leaving Philly to live in the burbs because they don't have to commute. That can be true, but it also assumes they're not being replaced. Thousands of people are moving to Philadelphia (city) as a more accessible and affordable version of their past lives in NYC/DC/LA etc. i.e. it assumes those who leave are not being replaced.

The other reason why it falls a bit flat IMO is because there is almost no inventory and very little new construction in the suburbs. If nothing is for sale, where are these people moving? I can count on one hand the number of new housing developments in all of western Delaware County. Franklin Station, which is the biggest, has something like 4 units left out of 300+ homes. There's a sizeable new development in Edgmont called Ventry. It also has only 3 unsold homes. The massive Toll project in Newtown Square (Licester) finished years ago at this point. Everything else is tiny by comparison (i.e. 10-20 homes). There's a new "neighborhood" in Garnet Valley near my parent's house called Garnet Pointe that has something like 14 lots from $1+MM. They sold out in months, even in this interest rate environment. The latter is typical of what's being built right now.

[DeltaNerd]

Originally Posted by PHLtoNYC

For the data nerds, prelim 2023 population data is out. Fun to review, but take this with a grain of salt.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...cal-areas.html
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philad...-20240314.html

The Philadelphia metro posted small growth (mostly in Montgo, Bucks, Chesco), but looks like the city declined by 16,000 residents from 2022 to 2023, which I find hard to believe...

Atlanta passed both Philly & DC metros in population, that was bound to happen.

People are pointing out the poorest neighborhoods are mostly contributing to the population lost. Not sure how true that is. It's a shame because you walk through those poor neighborhoods and realize most of them have good bones for development. We just need more police and commercial zoning to build out those neighborhoods.

[mcgrath618]

Paying attention to anything except the actual 10 year Census releases is dumb. The estimates have literally never been right about any city above 1M.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by DeltaNerd

People are pointing out the poorest neighborhoods are mostly contributing to the population lost. Not sure how true that is. It's a shame because you walk through those poor neighborhoods and realize most of them have good bones for development. We just need more police and commercial zoning to build out those neighborhoods.

This could be true. Upwardly mobile blacks continue to leave the city. I do think economic conditions are improving for the typical person in this city and I could imagine, especially with the spate of school violence in the past couple of years, if you're a working class black family in Lower North Philadelphia who finally has enough income to buy something, you're probably not doing it in your neighborhood given the anxiety around the safety of your kids. At the same time, I don't want to hear about gentrification when 3 years later a bunch of yuppies roll through and start to renovate houses because all you did your entire life was aspire to leave.

[DeltaNerd]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

This could be true. Upwardly mobile blacks continue to leave the city. I do think economic conditions are improving for the typical person in this city and I could imagine, especially with the spate of school violence in the past couple of years, if you're a working class black family in Lower North Philadelphia who finally has enough income to buy something, you're probably not doing it in your neighborhood given the anxiety around the safety of your kids. At the same time, I don't want to hear about gentrification when 3 years later a bunch of yuppies roll through and start to renovate houses because all you did your entire life was aspire to leave.

It's a shame we can't densify the whole metro area without people yelling gentrification and nimbys

SE PA economy isn't the greatest IMO. Not everyone has a Life Sciences degree, not everyone is going into Tech. We need more jobs but sadly I don't think manufacturing is coming back. The Bellweather district is a perfect place for that. We have an airport and major shipping port next door. Ideally Budd trains should come back, but I'm just dreaming at this point.

I think Philly metro area has a variety of jobs, just not enough of them. Our top three Industries is (Education and Health services), Trade, transportation, utilities), (Professional and Business Service).

Link shows the Industry trend from the Philadelphia airport stats
https://www.phl.org/drupalbin/media/...%20%282%29.pdf

[PhilliesPhan]

Originally Posted by PHLtoNYC

For the data nerds, prelim 2023 population data is out. Fun to review, but take this with a grain of salt.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...cal-areas.html
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philad...-20240314.html

The Philadelphia metro posted small growth (mostly in Montgo, Bucks, Chesco), but looks like the city declined by 16,000 residents from 2022 to 2023, which I find hard to believe...

Atlanta passed both Philly & DC metros in population, that was bound to happen.

Disclaimer: I think that Census estimates are BS.

When I dug into the data, I observed that the Philadelphia, PA Metro Division lost about 16,000 residents. I could be mistaken, but doesn't that division include both Philadelphia and Delaware Counties? If this is the case, then there is always the possibility that Delco is the driver behind the losses instead of the city. The city could (and is, according to my lived experience as a city resident) be doing just fine at the moment. Regardless, a loss of 16,000 people over an area and population size that includes Philly and Delco isn't the worst thing in the world.

EDIT: Nevermind. I just saw that Delco "gained" an estimated 847 people while the city "lost" 16,294 people. We'll see what the real numbers are come the 2030 Census.

[Urbanthusiat]

I do not believe for a second that the city lost 16k residents in the last year. ACS estimates are always garbage and the census usually shows that they were totally off. Every other data point says the city is growing, except for ACS. I mean I know this is just anecdotal evidence but it seems like there is growth in huge parts of the city.

[summersm343]

Yeah it’s so wildly inaccurate it’s funny. Don’t believe the yearly estimates for a second.

[EastSideHBG]

Developers file $150 million lawsuit against New Hanover Township alleging racial bias in Town Center delays

5-year-old probe of racism in police department cited in lawsuit.
https://www.timesherald.com/2024/03/...center-delays/

[UrbanRevival]

This seems like very positive news, particularly following the population estimates just released for the city. Hopefully a more real-time/reliable indicator:

Philadelphia’s Center City Leads Region in New Renter Demand

Strong Rebound in Demand for Apartment Units Amid Downtown Population Growth

[Cannot repost text; preview of article in link]

https://www.costar.com/article/16112...-renter-demand

[EastSideHBG]

The five counties making up the Philadelphia suburbs have not only some of the most expensive home prices in Pennsylvania, but in most of the country.

The median home price in Chester, Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery counties was more than double the state’s median home value of $191,550, according to late 2023 data from the National Association of Realtors.

The NAR uses the Census Bureau's American Community Survey of median housing prices for 3,112 counties and county equivalents across the U.S. Home values reflect the overall worth of all homes in a given area rather than solely home sales data, according to the association.

Here’s a breakdown of the 10 counties with the highest median home prices in Pennsylvania:

Chester County: $475,230

Bucks County: $447,000

Montgomery County: $431,940

Centre County: $332,260

Delaware County: $330,620

Northampton County: $317,300

Lancaster County: $312,230

Lehigh County: $311,880

Butler County: $302,930

Cumberland County: $281,820

https://www.yahoo.com/news/homes-phi...085636340.html

[PHLtoNYC]

Originally Posted by EastSideHBG

The five counties making up the Philadelphia suburbs have not only some of the most expensive home prices in Pennsylvania, but in most of the country.

The median home price in Chester, Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery counties was more than double the state’s median home value of $191,550, according to late 2023 data from the National Association of Realtors.

The NAR uses the Census Bureau's American Community Survey of median housing prices for 3,112 counties and county equivalents across the U.S. Home values reflect the overall worth of all homes in a given area rather than solely home sales data, according to the association.

Here’s a breakdown of the 10 counties with the highest median home prices in Pennsylvania:

Chester County: $475,230

Bucks County: $447,000

Montgomery County: $431,940

Centre County: $332,260

Delaware County: $330,620

Northampton County: $317,300

Lancaster County: $312,230

Lehigh County: $311,880

Butler County: $302,930

Cumberland County: $281,820

https://www.yahoo.com/news/homes-phi...085636340.html

Cool data, love this stuff, but I'm not shocked that the PA burbs so high. All 4 counties contain some of the best suburbs in the nation, and until recently were still relatively affordable compared to similar burbs outside of Boston, NYC, DC.
Nowadays homes listed under $1M are usually under contract within a few days/weeks.

Chester County also surpassed $500k median sale price since this data was measured.

I'm also curious what the difference would be for Delco if Chester (city/town) were removed. I imagine numbers would be similar to Chester/Bucks/Montco.

[UrbanRevival]

Not directly development-related, but undeniably great news for continued hospitality/retail sector recovery and visitor exposure.

International Visitation to Philadelphia Expected to Recover to Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2024

By Mark Hostutler
Published: March 28, 2024

The Philadelphia Convention and Visitors Bureau hosted a Global Tourism Update last week at the Barnes Foundation to highlight sales and promotional activities and present key data on international visitation to Philadelphia.

Tourism Economics, the leading global provider of market forecasts and international travel data, reported that visitation from all international markets is expected to recover to 2019 levels in 2024. Room nights from all international markets are expected to exceed 2019 levels in 2024.

...

All top overseas markets — inclusive of the U.K., China, South Korea, Germany, France, and India — are expected to recover at the same time or prior to recovery for the U.S. In other words, Philadelphia is ahead of the national recovery trend.
...

All international markets are expected to drive just under 1.3 million overnight visits in 2024 — 13.9 percent higher than 2023. Room nights generated from these visits are expected to be just under 3.5 million, which is 20.4 percent more than in the prior year. Spending is expected to increase 37.9 percent from the prior year to just under $800 million.

...

https://montco.today/2024/03/interna...-philadelphia/

[PHLtoNYC]

^ Great news, and on the tourism note, Wrestlemania will be Philadelphia next weekend, huge crowds expected.

[DeltaNerd]

Great to see the tourism numbers are recovering well. I'm also glad Philly was able to capture a large event such has Wrestlemania. Hopefully in the coming years we Philly can continue to host big events. Obviously World Cup and MLB all-star games are going to be great.
Maybe more March madness games in the future. Maybe another NFL draft one day.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by PHLtoNYC

Cool data, love this stuff, but I'm not shocked that the PA burbs so high. All 4 counties contain some of the best suburbs in the nation, and until recently were still relatively affordable compared to similar burbs outside of Boston, NYC, DC.
Nowadays homes listed under $1M are usually under contract within a few days/weeks.

Chester County also surpassed $500k median sale price since this data was measured.

I'm also curious what the difference would be for Delco if Chester (city/town) were removed. I imagine numbers would be similar to Chester/Bucks/Montco.

I'm not sure the prices in Chester are negatively impacting the county as much as we assume. I'm shocked by how much things are selling for in Chester and Upland (in the Chester School District).

Flips in Toby Farms (Upland Borough, Chester SD) are selling in the mid-200s. I don't think I've ever seen a house in Toby Farms sell for more than 100K until 2 years ago. Houses in the nice pockets of Landsdowne are fetching close to 500K these days. Yes, at some level it seems absurd, but I'm a firm believer that Delaware County is situated to be the premiere suburban county in the coming decades. It's squarely in the middle of the explosive job growth in West and South Philly, Wilmington (FinTech) and the usual suspects in King of Prussia. And it still has the best transit connectivity of any suburban county.

The house next to my parents in Delaware County...which for the entirety of my life was very much a place where people either bought their starter homes if they were white collar or moved up to if they had a high skill trade, was just bought by a second year associate at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati (the Silicon Valley law firm with expanding offices in Wilmington). 2nd year salary (per publically available sources) = base of $215K. Number of times in my life I've seen this profile of person buying a home in my parent's neighborhood? Zero. Until the past two years.

The profile of our local economy is in the middle of a transformational change. The trickle down of this change is pushing eastward into Chester, Upland, and other parts of southeastern Delco. Chester might become a place where you buy your starter home in a couple years. Until now it's just been a place you bypassed altogether.