Canadian Airport Thread II

[hollywoodcory]

Starting today, 4Y boosts YYC to 12x weekly. I can't remember the last time a non-North American carrier operated more than daily service to YYC?

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Starting today, 4Y boosts YYC to 12x weekly. I can't remember the last time a non-North American carrier operated more than daily service to YYC?

Probably never happened before. Too bad it's at the expense of AC exiting YYC-FRA.

In other news, GTAA finally published their full year 2023 numbers.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...878884597.html

44.8 million passengers, up 25.8%

Still well below their 2019 peak of 50.5 million passengers.

Some interesting tidbits in the annual report.

https://cdn.torontopearson.com/-/med...C15B13B24C5DBC

There were 53.1 million seats available in/out of Pearson in 2023, meaning average load factor was 84.4% throughout the year.

Also, 76.9% of passengers were O&D, 23.1% connecting.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Probably never happened before. Too bad it's at the expense of AC exiting YYC-FRA.

In other news, GTAA finally published their full year 2023 numbers.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...878884597.html

44.8 million passengers, up 25.8%

Still well below their 2019 peak of 50.5 million passengers.

Some interesting tidbits in the annual report.

https://cdn.torontopearson.com/-/med...C15B13B24C5DBC

There were 53.1 million seats available in/out of Pearson in 2023, meaning average load factor was 84.4% throughout the year.

Also, 76.9% of passengers were O&D, 23.1% connecting.

My first thought about YYZ’s stats is domestically how much of an impact has cuts in the Eastern triangle had on overall numbers? I think it’s pretty significant with WS down +90%, AC down a good 20% or more, offset by PD’s up to 8 daily E95 departures added mid-Q1. That’s got to be at least a million fewer seats than in 2019 and it’s trending to be even lower in 2024 as WS were still 4x daily to both YOW & YUL in Q1 of 2023 and AC drop back down to 10x this summer to YOW on weekdays, while last I checked YUL is 16x. AC to both YUL & YOW were 18x on weekdays and about 16x on weekends in 2019.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

My first thought about YYZ’s stats is domestically how much of an impact has cuts in the Eastern triangle had on overall numbers? I think it’s pretty significant with WS down +90%, AC down a good 20% or more, offset by PD’s up to 8 daily E95 departures added mid-Q1. That’s got to be at least a million fewer seats than in 2019 and it’s trending to be even lower in 2024 as WS were still 4x daily to both YOW & YUL in Q1 of 2023 and AC drop back down to 10x this summer to YOW on weekdays, while last I checked YUL is 16x. AC to both YUL & YOW were 18x on weekdays and about 16x on weekends in 2019.

Even something big like NYC which is a massive business market was down seats.
Business travel is still down, and frequencies are still below pre covid.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

Even something big like NYC which is a massive business market was down seats.
Business travel is still down, and frequencies are still below pre covid.

Some of that pre-Covid day tripper traffic will never return, which environmentally isn’t a bad thing.

[manny_santos]

Flair seems to have quietly added some YVR-YXU flights for during this summer, basically from June-September.

There hasn’t been anything in the news about it but I discovered it by accident on Google Flights over the weekend.

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

Flair seems to have quietly added some YVR-YXU flights for during this summer, basically from June-September.

There hasn’t been anything in the news about it but I discovered it by accident on Google Flights over the weekend.

It’s always been bookable, but it seems like they quietly increased YYC-YXU to 5x weekly from 3x.

[msmariner]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Starting today, 4Y boosts YYC to 12x weekly. I can't remember the last time a non-North American carrier operated more than daily service to YYC?

The only thing comparable would be when AC had double daily to LHR

[whatnext]

Pilots at WS Encore will be in legal strike position April 17:

WestJet Encore pilots vote for strike mandate, adding to airline's turbulence
The Canadian Press

WestJet Encore pilots could go on strike as soon as April 17 after they approved a strike mandate Tuesday.

Aviators at WestJet’s regional carrier voted 97 per cent in favour of strike authorization after contract talks around pay and career progression came to a "near standstill," the Air Line Pilots Association said.

The 355 pilots it represents can walk off the tarmac 72 hours after union leadership files a strike notice. The potential job action or lockout can only take place after a 21-day cooling-off period that started when federal conciliation between the two sides wrapped up last week....

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/westjet-...ence-1.2054293

[Dominion301]

AC launch YVR-SIN today: https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...896156089.html

[thenoflyzone]

New YUL plans for 2028 and beyond. (if the video link doesn't work, use the web link below.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5d4Sb7a8lAM

• Video Link

The airside plan for an new satellite building seems to only be step 1. More details should follow. New jetties I assume are in the works, same as in the last plan from 2018.

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

New YUL plans for 2028 and beyond. (if the video link doesn't work, use the web link below.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5d4Sb7a8lAM

• Video Link

The airside plan for an new satellite building seems to only be step 1. More details should follow. New jetties I assume are in the works, same as in the last plan from 2018.

To make a Youtube video work make sure it looks like this:
• Video Link

[thenoflyzone]

I tried different shit. Didn't work. So i gave up and just added the web link.

[Nicko999]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

New YUL plans for 2028 and beyond. (if the video link doesn't work, use the web link below.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5d4Sb7a8lAM

• Video Link

The airside plan for an new satellite building seems to only be step 1. More details should follow. New jetties I assume are in the works, same as in the last plan from 2018.

Won't make the airport less of a shitshow to access during summertime. I have absolutely no plan to travel from YUL during the summer months. I will drive to Burlington (VT) and fly from there if necessary. I've already done that a couple of times.

What would fix the problem is a functioning terminal at YMX. I have been repeating this since before the pandemic and if ADM was any competent, they would have start work on it.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Nicko999

Won't make the airport less of a shitshow to access during summertime. I have absolutely no plan to travel from YUL during the summer months. I will drive to Burlington (VT) and fly from there if necessary. I've already done that a couple of times.

They will triple the airport drop-off capacity. That's as close a definition of "lessening the shitshow to access the airport". (More renderings in the link below. That's a lot of car lanes, which is what YUL needs.)

https://www.yulexpress.com/en/2024/0...connected-yul/

Plus, Burlington doesn't offer you non stop access to 157 destinations (87 of which are international). So flying out of YUL does have it's benefits !

Originally Posted by Nicko999

What would fix the problem is a functioning terminal at YMX. I have been repeating this since before the pandemic and if ADM was any competent, they would have start work on it.

That's not gonna happen. They will develop every square inch of YUL until they can't do anything else. Only then will they consider building something at YMX.

[craner]

Would Mirabel not make more sense ?
(Just askin‘).

[big T]

YMX is not happening. We're even getting light rail to the airport now (by 2027 per the good people in charge, so let's call it "before 2030"), so YUL it is for the next 4 decades, for better or worse.

YUL has 2 runways and terminals can be re-arranged somewhat. It will be way more expensive and painful than a clean sheet design (in YMX, presumably -- essentially a brownfield currently), and we'll be flying in and out of a permanent construction zone till the 2060s at least. We need to accept this and move on.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by big T

YMX is not happening. We're even getting light rail to the airport now (by 2027 per the good people in charge, so let's call it "before 2030"), so YUL it is for the next 4 decades, for better or worse.

YUL has 2 runways and terminals can be re-arranged somewhat. It will be way more expensive and painful than a clean sheet design (in YMX, presumably -- essentially a brownfield currently), and we'll be flying in and out of a permanent construction zone till the 2060s at least. We need to accept this and move on.

Building up YMX (public transit, a new terminal, new de-icing facility, new parking facilities, etc) will be way more expensive than anything they do at YUL.

If they had chosen YMX as their go to international airport back in the 90s, different story. They didn't. So they're stuck with YUL for the foreseeable future.

Yes, YUL will be a construction site for the better part of the next 20 years. It's the price to pay for choosing the wrong airport, and thinking small until now.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Building up YMX (public transit, a new terminal, new de-icing facility, new parking facilities, etc) will be way more expensive than anything they do at YUL.

If they had chosen YMX as their go to international airport back in the 90s, different story. They didn't. So they're stuck with YUL for the foreseeable future.

Yes, YUL will be a construction site for the better part of the next 20 years. It's the price to pay for choosing the wrong airport, and thinking small until now.

I imagine in 5-10 years after Hubert is built there will be a lobbying effort to open it to some international flights. Short range stuff, New York, Boston, DC, Detroit, some Caribbean and Florida.

[big T]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Building up YMX (public transit, a new terminal, new de-icing facility, new parking facilities, etc) will be way more expensive than anything they do at YUL.

If they had chosen YMX as their go to international airport back in the 90s, different story. They didn't. So they're stuck with YUL for the foreseeable future.

Yes, YUL will be a construction site for the better part of the next 20 years. It's the price to pay for choosing the wrong airport, and thinking small until now.

YUL is bursting at the seams at 20 million ppy. The proposed upgrades would make it comfortable up to say 25, and we'll be back to bursting at the seams at 30.

Meanwhile, sunk costs (including REM) all but guarantee YUL will remain the primary Mtl airport until at least 2060, if not longer. By then, we'll be way over 30 mil. So YUL will need to further transform to accommodate another, say, 20 mil additional passengers, which will require enormous investment beyond this current proposal.

Assuming the end goal is to have an airport capable of accommodating 40-50 mil passengers in 2060, I absolutely believe it would be cheaper to get working on a clean sheet design in YMX today, yes. Pension funds, among which Canadian funds are world class leaders, love these types of large infra projects. You could do a PPP, and enlist consortiums with significant and recent experience building similar clean-sheet airports elsewhere in the world. Doing so without the constraints of ongoing use of existing facilities would dramatically reduce complexity and cost, to the point that the main challenge (cost and complexity wise) would be bringing transit to YMX -- more so than the airport itself. And, look at us, we now have a template for that too, with the existing St Jerome line that could be REM'd.

The political choice to let the next guy in charge worry about this is understandable, but not to our benefit.