The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[lio45]

Originally Posted by milomilo

... then solving climate change is remarkably easy.

Easy in a dictatorship, not in a democracy

In the real world, it would be more like
Step 1) Make plans to introduce a non-irrelevant carbon tax
Step 2) Introduce it
Step 3) Watch industry and the free market naturally take the path of cost efficiency
Step 4) Save the planet

(step 1.5 - get voted out)

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by lio45

In the real world, it would be more like
Step 1) Make plans to introduce a non-irrelevant carbon tax

LOL "non-irrelevant" . So you just agreed it is, LOL. Breathing is also "non-irrelevant", educating the stupid on the purpose of the Carbon Tax around the globe is also "non-irrelevant".

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by Eau Claire

Maybe you should explain. What do you think this has to do with climate change?

Syracuse, N.Y. – For the second time in three years, water levels in Lake Ontario are so high above the long-term average they threaten to swamp shoreline homes.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in Sodus Point this week, said the high water is part of the “new reality” of a warmer, wetter world.

“We have to plan that these changes in climate will continue,” Cuomo said. “We have to accept that flooding and increased water flow are the new reality. Let’s start building for that new reality.”

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by lio45

Easy in a dictatorship, not in a democracy

In the real world, it would be more like
Step 1) Make plans to introduce a non-irrelevant carbon tax
Step 2) Introduce it
Step 3) Watch industry and the free market naturally take the path of cost efficiency
Step 4) Save the planet

(step 1.5 - get voted out)

I don't disagree, but if we can't even bring ourselves to do the cheapest form of mitigation, I don't see any point doing the more expensive, more authoritarian climate change policies. We'll just make ourselves poorer for little benefit to the environment.

This shouldn't be difficult, we already have more intrusive, less efficient, objectively worse taxes than a carbon price. It's basically just a hybrid of a fuel tax and sales tax. But it's been politicized, and the fault of that is almost entirely on one side of the political spectrum. The side that should support it, if they actually believed in the ideology they pretend to support.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Syracuse, N.Y. – For the second time in three years, water levels in Lake Ontario are so high above the long-term average they threaten to swamp shoreline homes.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in Sodus Point this week, said the high water is part of the “new reality” of a warmer, wetter world.

“We have to plan that these changes in climate will continue,” Cuomo said. “We have to accept that flooding and increased water flow are the new reality. Let’s start building for that new reality.”

What happened to:

Why the Lakes are slowly getting less Great

The largest part of the drop in the lakes' water levels is attributed to climate change: shorter winters and dry, hot summers meant more water evaporating from the lakes than was going back in through precipitation.

from August 25, 2012

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...rticle4499074/

Climate has its own natural variation and cycles regardless of humanity's influence.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Um, how is it the wrong thread? Please explain? It has everything to do with climate change.


Lake Ontario reaches highest level in recorded history, leaving Toronto Islands bracing for more flooding

High winds on Thursday afternoon could lead to waves and water breaches, officials warn
CBC News · Posted: May 30, 2019 1:43 PM ET

Water levels on Lake Ontario have reached the highest point in recorded history, putting the Toronto Islands at risk of significant flooding.

Current levels have reached 76.03 metres above sea level, topping the previous record of 75.93 metres which was set in 2017 when the islands were inundated with water.

Toronto Islands face 'distressing time' as lake levels on rise, high winds in store
Ferry service to Hanlan's Point has been suspended and the area around Gibraltar Point has been closed off as a result. Worse, strong winds are expected on Thursday afternoon, something that could lead to "significant wave action," local Coun. Joe Cressy warned.

"This is a difficult time for local residents, who are also working tirelessly to protect the Islands. We are all grateful for volunteer assistance from visitors and the public," Cressy said in a tweet.


full article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...vels-1.5155962

Can the Long Lake and Obagi diversions be Dailed back or the Chicago diversion increased to compensate? Unsure if any of those would make a material difference.

[CanSpice]

https://twitter.com/CBCRaffy/status/1134189335446740992

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has cancelled an afternoon media availability on the carbon tax repeal act. Instead, he'll "receive an internal, real-time briefing" on Alberta's wildfires.

The irony is almost as thick as the smoke blanketing Edmonton.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Doug

Can the Long Lake and Obagi diversions be Dailed back or the Chicago diversion increased to compensate? Unsure if any of those would make a material difference.

Or people could stop building in the floodplain. The housing on the Toronto Islands was supposedly to be removed decades ago.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lio45

On the other hand, it's perfectly plausible that Ontario would get wetter in the winter (I believe that's what all (or at least most) models are forecasting) due to climate change.

Climate change, implies change.

Wetter, implies higher lake levels.

We just had two "you'll see that maybe once in a century at most" years out of three consecutive years. How likely is that, statistically? It's much more likely that the old normals have slightly changed now.

https://waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/pdf/NetworkMeans2018.pdf

There were several peaks in a row in the 70s, and in the 50s, and 20s.

The biggest problem is that in the relatively dry years at the end of the 20th century people converted a whole bunch of seasonal cottages that were designedly to flood periodically into suburban houses that were highly vulnerable to flooding.

[CityTech]

Lake Ontario's flooding is largely caused by knock on effects of the Ottawa River being way over capacity: this requires holding back the flow of the St. Lawrence, which in turn causes Lake Ontario to fill.

[Eau Claire]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Syracuse, N.Y. – For the second time in three years, water levels in Lake Ontario are so high above the long-term average they threaten to swamp shoreline homes.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in Sodus Point this week, said the high water is part of the “new reality” of a warmer, wetter world.

“We have to plan that these changes in climate will continue,” Cuomo said. “We have to accept that flooding and increased water flow are the new reality. Let’s start building for that new reality.”

It looks to me like you may be a victim of the fear industry. Here are a few tips to help allay your fears. First of all anything from the CBC should be viewed with great suspicion. Today’s CBC is not your grandparents’ CBC. They are one of the worst for fake news these days, but all the major outlets seem to be essentially in the fear industry now. It’s no longer, “if it bleeds it leads”. It’s, “fear drives clicks, facts be damned.”

Second, weather tends to go in cycles that last longer than a year. You’ll get a number of years close together that are wetter than normal, or a number of years that are dryer, so the fact that there were two flood years close together is not unusual. There is some theory on this but I’ll let you look that up on your own. As an example, however, Calgary had a big flood in 2013, but it had two bigger floods in the late 1800s. So two big ones close together, but still almost 20 years apart, and then nothing very close that size for over 100 years, and then another big one in 2013. And this is not an unusual pattern.

Third, don’t place too much weight on recorded history, especially in these parts, because it’s not very long. Geological history tells a much longer story, and I’m sure the CBC knows that, which is why they tried to scare you with the “worst in recorded history!” bit an avoided geological history. Look at the picture you posted. The land at the edge of the water looks very flat and very much like a floodplain. And if it is, and it almost certainly is, that tells you that there has been water there about a metre higher than it is now, and probably a number of times. But by ignoring the geological history that’s right there in the photo, and talking about the “worst in recorded history!”, or whatever it was they said, they scared you, and now you’re running around the internet posting links to their article. Fear drives clicks.

[Chadillaccc]

So, Eau Claire... are you a denier of anthropogenic climate change? I'm legit just asking, not accusing. Just because it sort of seems like that, without you having outright said it.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by acottawa

https://waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/pdf/NetworkMeans2018.pdf

There were several peaks in a row in the 70s, and in the 50s, and 20s.

The biggest problem is that in the relatively dry years at the end of the 20th century people converted a whole bunch of seasonal cottages that were designedly to flood periodically into suburban houses that were highly vulnerable to flooding.

Oh, I'm totally with you on that (that the main problem by far is the fact that greedy governments have let people build in high-tax waterfront locations).

It just seems plausible that climate change, for anyone who doesn't deny it, may cause various metrics to change, average yearly lake level among them. The role of climate change as a nonzero component of the exact caliber of the flooding/wildfires of the past couple years is probable. Though again, just to be sure: the #1 factor in floodings is that we let people build in floodplains, and the #1 factor in the current intensity forest fires is our poor management (we've been suppressing smaller fires for a century now, allowing unnatural fuel buildup). But things can have many contributing factors, not always only one.

[Eau Claire]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

So, Eau Claire... are you a denier of anthropogenic climate change? I'm legit just asking, not accusing. Just because it sort of seems like that, without you having outright said it.

Not sure where you'd get that idea from. Why would I be talking about all this carbon capture technology if I was?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Eau Claire

Not sure where you'd get that idea from.

Your posts...

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lio45

Oh, I'm totally with you on that (that the main problem by far is the fact that greedy governments have let people build in high-tax waterfront locations).

It just seems plausible that climate change, for anyone who doesn't deny it, may cause various metrics to change, average yearly lake level among them. The role of climate change as a nonzero component of the exact caliber of the flooding/wildfires of the past couple years is probable. Though again, just to be sure: the #1 factor in floodings is that we let people build in floodplains, and the #1 factor in the current intensity forest fires is our poor management (we've been suppressing smaller fires for a century now, allowing unnatural fuel buildup). But things can have many contributing factors, not always only one.

It is certainly plausible, but I have yet to see a scientific explanation that this year’s combination of factors (unusually cold winter, unusually high snowfall, unusually wet spring) is related to climate change. Maybe it is, but it is ridiculous to state that every instance of bad weather is because of climate change.

Weather ≠ Climate

[rbt]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Lake Ontario's flooding is largely caused by knock on effects of the Ottawa River being way over capacity: this requires holding back the flow of the St. Lawrence, which in turn causes Lake Ontario to fill.

It's related, but not that directly.

All great lakes are well above seasonal norm and Superior is also a record high. It's just been a year of heavy precipitation for the region.

http://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/Forecas...GLWL-Graph.pdf

Lake Ontario being abnormally high doesn't get backed up to the other lakes; Niagara falls is a bit of a jump for that to happen.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Eau Claire

It looks to me like you may be a victim of the fear industry. Here are a few tips to help allay your fears. First of all anything from the CBC should be viewed with great suspicion. Today’s CBC is not your grandparents’ CBC. They are one of the worst for fake news these days, but all the major outlets seem to be essentially in the fear industry now. It’s no longer, “if it bleeds it leads”. It’s, “fear drives clicks, facts be damned.” ....

I think you are confusing a journalistic sense of social responsibility with fake news. That's not really something you should be easily confused about, and it puts you in the same camp as those you criticize. CBC is criticized for being left leaning, but Canada is left leaning, so it reflects our values fairly accurately. Our right wing parties are mostly more progressive than the American left.

[Eau Claire]

Originally Posted by Architype

I think you are confusing a journalistic sense of social responsibility with fake news. That's not really something you should be easily confused about, and it puts you in the same camp as those you criticize. CBC is criticized for being left leaning, but Canada is left leaning, so it reflects our values fairly accurately. Our right wing parties are mostly more progressive than the American left.

I just checked the link TorontoDrew posted and in fact the CBC did not show that picture and did not claim that the flooding was due to climate change. That was Drew doing that, so my comments on the CBC don’t apply to this article, but they do apply to other articles the CBC has done. So with that clarification, no, I’m talking about intentionally false and misleading information, intended to manipulate and probably intended to drive clicks. Yes, the CBC is criticized for being left leaning, but that is either a misinterpretation of misrepresentation of their problem. The problem is really about either incompetence or corruption. But instead of going off on this tangent now let’s wait until another such CBC article comes up, as it undoubtedly will. In this case it’s all on Drew.

[Eau Claire]

Here’s the other link I mentioned above. This is a talk from about a year ago about a vertically integrated carbon capture project. It’s 20 minutes but it’s well worth watching. It shows the emerging carbon market and ecosystem that is starting to evolve around captured CO2. Note that three of the four companies are Canadian, one from Burnaby, one from Calgary, and one from Dartmouth.
https://vimeo.com/265268606