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Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture
there may be less people buying cars, but with 1,000,000, (1 million), new people, and lets assume only 10% get cars, that is still an extra 100,000 cars more then there are today. and more then 10% of people get a car.
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Assuming everybody else continues to buy cars at the same rate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture
cars are huge assets, they cost a lot to buy and maintain. but when going all electric, the maintenance costs are almost non-existent. this makes them more affordable, as mentioned in the post you quoted but ignored that part. the costs of buying cars are also going down. as more cars become all electric, the technology will get cheaper and the costs to buy will be lower. so this means less capital outlay, almost no maintenance costs, and no fuel costs.
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Are you living in a world with free electricity? We have some of the cheapest electricity in North America (and expensive gas). But as the demand shifts from fuel to electricity, new sources like Site C have much higher costs to produce power. Governments will also need to replace the tax base generated by fuel taxes. Other energy sources will likely absorb at least some of that taxation.
But all of that aside, anything that makes cars cheaper for individuals to own, makes them cheaper for sharing organizations. The major manufacturers all recognize this. Ford, GM, and of course Daimler-Benz are all investing heavily in car sharing and technologies like Uber. Why? Because this is their future customer base.
We're talking about utilization of an expensive asset. If you can increase that from 3% to only 9%, that's tripling the value. It's easy to see car sharing cars (in particular autonomous ones) having 50% or greater utilization.
Quote:
Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture
now with self-driving cars, you talk about being able to order a car. now what if people would rather do that then take transit? you can't assume the people abandoning cars are the ones who will be going to this "ordering cars" method. you have to account for there being at least the same, if not MORE cars because more people would rather the convenience of ordering a car compared to transit. everyone assumes "well duh car drivers will give up cars!" well that's a bad assumption to make because odds are you will get SOME giving them up, just like SOME will give up transit.
now, if everyone has the same mentality of you, well then a lot of cars will be needed due to commuting patterns. i guess you could assume more people working from home due to internet connectivity, but remember, Vancouver is very much a service industry which requires someone to commute to a location to work. this network of "ordering cars" will need to be pretty big.
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I think you need to spend some time working on grammar and sentence structure if you want your ideas to be communicated successfully.
What I think you are talking about is commuting times of day when there is a potential for high usage of shared vehicles towards specific destinations, leading to congestion.
I think we are talking far into the future here, but consider a scenario where there is very little private car ownership. We can probably get rid of street parking entirely, people can share rides to work in the same car (for a discount of course), and others will simply take these cars to the closest skytrain or WCE station. The reason many people drive downtown today is because they don't live close to a train station, don't want to take a bus, and there's no park and ride reasonably close to them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture
and if you didn't just read word-for-word and were able to pick up on context, you would realize when i said "fad," i was being consistent with the post i was quoting. you would have realized that "fad" in this case meant that summer is only around for 3 or 4 months a year. so only 1/4 or 1/3 of the entire year. NOT the majority of the year. the city of Vancouver's own bike data also proves this. biking in this city is very much seasonal.
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Hey, it's not my fault if you're using the wrong word, that's on you.
The City's traffic data shows massive double digit increases in cycling every year, and flat to declining car usage. If you take that data seriously, why wouldn't you increase cycling capacity and infrastructure?