The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The company seem to be going all-out for whatever the final name for the Model 2 gets called. It's never a good idea to take anything Musk says as accurate, but if the leaks about production processes and CATL battery technology developments are half true, it'll be very different from anything built up to now. It appears that initial manufacturing will be in Texas, followed by Mexico and Germany, and there will be production in Shanghai as well. The next factory to be added is supposedly in India, and that's also for the new model. That move has been signalled for many months, but it looks like the lower import duty for imported vehicles that was announced last month (if the company importing has domestic production) made the difference.

Do you think this theory from Troy Teslike could be plausible, given yesterday's Reuters leaks and now the robotaxi announcement?





https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/stat...63285250576661

[casper]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Do you think this theory from Troy Teslike could be plausible, given yesterday's Reuters leaks and now the robotaxi announcement?

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/stat...63285250576661

Well if they are running into problems getting subsidies to build battery plants in the US, maybe they should be talking to Canada. I get the impression the Canadian government likes battery plants.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Do you think this theory from Troy Teslike could be plausible, given yesterday's Reuters leaks and now the robotaxi announcement?

Your guess is as good as mine! (Maybe better). To quote me, "It's never a good idea to take anything Musk says as accurate", but he was quick to say "Reuters is lying". They also have a history of odd reporting on Tesla. Maybe last Thursday week it wasn true that Musk was going to cancel the cheaper car and go all in on the robotaxi, and by Saturday the ketamine had kicked in and he'd changed his mind again.

They still need batteries for the robotaxi, so the idea that they can't source them for the 'Model 2', but could for production for the robotaxi seems odd. And there's a ready market for a cheaper Tesla all over the world, although the longer they leave it the greater the alternate competition get established. The robotaxi seems to be likely to take much longer to get universal buy-in, and will no doubt face a series of unexpected problems. (Or expected ones, that prove to be a serious problem). It could be The Boring Company 2.0. I guess we'll (maybe) know more after August 8 when the unveiling is supposed to take place.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

Well if they are running into problems getting subsidies to build battery plants in the US, maybe they should be talking to Canada. I get the impression the Canadian government likes battery plants.

IRA does not allow subsidies to Chinese sourced materials or components, regardless of where assembly occurs. It's not the fact that they are building in Mexico. It's the fact that CATL is their battery partner. CATL would have the same problem in Canada as they do in Mexico.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Do you think this theory from Troy Teslike could be plausible, given yesterday's Reuters leaks and now the robotaxi announcement?
...
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/stat...63285250576661

Happy to be proven wrong but I think Musk is full of it and had to make a kneejerk announcement to save the stock price. I fully expect the autonomous car reveal to be something like the Tesla Solar reveal.

Maybe if it flops, he'll recommit to building the Model 2. I don't get the $25k target. I think a hot hatch Tesla would actually sell quite well at $US30k. Might not get Tesla the profit they want. But it would sell.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

IRA does not allow subsidies to Chinese sourced materials or components, regardless of where assembly occurs. It's not the fact that they are building in Mexico. It's the fact that CATL is their battery partner. CATL would have the same problem in Canada as they do in Mexico.

I read today that Trump would increase tariffs on goods from China to 60%! It’s hard to imagine him allowing a loophole for Mexico-based production of Chinese goods.

[urbandreamer]

My guess is the robotaxi has replaced the compact CUV as the entry level model, which will probably be available to lease in fleet format only. Like CyberTruck, it'll be announced as a wild concept but won't be ready until 2029, buying Tesla time to figure out Level 4. (Backroom IndiaBots manning the cameras?)

[WarrenC12]

Why wouldn't the "robotaxi" and the Model 2 essentially be the same thing? That's what I don't get. A driver model and a driverless model.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

My guess is the robotaxi has replaced the compact CUV as the entry level model, which will probably be available to lease in fleet format only. Like CyberTruck, it'll be announced as a wild concept but won't be ready until 2029, buying Tesla time to figure out Level 4. (Backroom IndiaBots manning the cameras?)

It’s all fun and games until someone dies in the flaming wreck of a self-driving robotaxi. The outcry would be huge even though you’re more likely to die with a human taxi driver behind the wheel.

[ssiguy]

Tesla/Musk are engaging in what was known as the "Blockbuster Maneuver" that was deployed in the 80s & 90s with the video rental system. Blockbuster was notorious for moving into a market and cut it's prices for it's movie rentals forcing current local video stores to close due to an inability to compete with it's low prices and then once the competition was gone would jack up their prices and people had no choice but to pay them.

Contrary to popular belief, the term blockbuster was not invented by Hollywood but rather by the war departments of the Allies in WW2. They would drop VERY powerful bombs on German cities that were partly composed of incendiaries that were strong enough to flatten an entire city block. They "destroyed" the competition and then "made a killing".

This is exactly what Musk is doing with EVs. He knows that the other manufacturers cannot compete with his ever declining prices hoping to take them out of the market lest they go broke. When he manages this he will quickly raise the prices and consumers will have little option but to pay them. Anyone who thinks this is not the end game, I suggest professional help.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Tesla/Musk are engaging in what was known as the "Blockbuster Maneuver"

...

Anyone who thinks this is not the end game, I suggest professional help.

Tesla had 16% of the global battery electric vehicle market in Q4 2023. BYD had 18%. Tesla might dominate a few markets, but by no means all of them, and as more (and cheaper) EVs are released by more manufacturers worldwide, they're just working at keeping their market share.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Tesla/Musk are engaging in what was known as the "Blockbuster Maneuver" that was deployed in the 80s & 90s with the video rental system. Blockbuster was notorious for moving into a market and cut it's prices for it's movie rentals forcing current local video stores to close due to an inability to compete with it's low prices and then once the competition was gone would jack up their prices and people had no choice but to pay them.

Contrary to popular belief, the term blockbuster was not invented by Hollywood but rather by the war departments of the Allies in WW2. They would drop VERY powerful bombs on German cities that were partly composed of incendiaries that were strong enough to flatten an entire city block. They "destroyed" the competition and then "made a killing".

This is exactly what Musk is doing with EVs. He knows that the other manufacturers cannot compete with his ever declining prices hoping to take them out of the market lest they go broke. When he manages this he will quickly raise the prices and consumers will have little option but to pay them. Anyone who thinks this is not the end game, I suggest professional help.

Yes maybe TSLA will end up as Apple but there are a lot of car manufactures so he won't be putting them out of business dropping his prices. They might delay their EV rollout but it's not clear if the market ever becomes EV only they couldn't shift. Especially with huge US battery subsidies now available.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Why wouldn't the "robotaxi" and the Model 2 essentially be the same thing? That's what I don't get. A driver model and a driverless model.

Optimization mostly.

[rousseau]

Battery swapping stations in China. Seems like the obvious thing to do, but due to my limited imagination for tech this never occurred to me before.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...aign=topunroll

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Battery swapping stations in China. Seems like the obvious thing to do, but due to my limited imagination for tech this never occurred to me before.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...aign=topunroll

This is difficult in developed world markets. Largely bedroom the ownership model of batteries seems to be problematic.

[Nouvellecosse]

I once saw a proposal for battery trailers that people could use for road trips. Basically when someone wants extra range they would attach a small trailer with a bunch of batteries connected to the car's power system and when the battery is drained it could be dropped off at an en-route service station to be charged while they'd pick up a freshly charged one. It would allow people to avoid the additional weight and expense of battery capacity they'd only be using occasionally while forgoing the battery degradation of rapid charging. Plus it would allow greater range than even a car with a really large internal batter pack. There would be a slight aerodynamic penalty for having an external component, but not much.

[urbandreamer]

Swappable batteries could work well at say Canadian Tire, gas stations with garages, oil change/tire shops & maybe dealerships. (Walmart?) Especially if they targeted urban and suburban smaller cars. Eg, I'd buy a Smart Fortwo-sized EV with 100-150km range if the batteries could be swapped in 3-5 minutes, much like my 1980s Sony Walkman or portable vacuum. $100/month perhaps. So I'd own the car not the batteries. With this tech, I could justify spending $15k on an EV.

Oh and it turns out this product already exists!
https://ample.com/
And Stellantis (I hate this corporate name, just call it Chrysler Fiat Peugeot) is launching city cars soon with this tech.

Re: Tesla's S3XY cars & CyberTruck, their CyberBot will probably be a 2 seater.

[ssiguy]

Swapping your batteries can void your warranty.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Swappable batteries could work well at say Canadian Tire, gas stations with garages, oil change/tire shops & maybe dealerships. (Walmart?) Especially if they targeted urban and suburban smaller cars. Eg, I'd buy a Smart Fortwo-sized EV with 100-150km range if the batteries could be swapped in 3-5 minutes, much like my 1980s Sony Walkman or portable vacuum. $100/month perhaps. So I'd own the car not the batteries. With this tech, I could justify spending $15k on an EV.

Oh and it turns out this product already exists!
https://ample.com/
And Stellantis (I hate this corporate name, just call it Chrysler Fiat Peugeot) is launching city cars soon with this tech.

That Ample system looks very clunky and slow. If a battery change could take 10 minutes, there's not going to be much advantage over the faster charging times that are already being achieved with CATL batteries.

Nio are already much further developed with battery swap technology in China, and now in Europe (video here, of a station in Sweden). They have 2,100 charging stations, so they're not a start-up with no track record. They also have solid state batteries in production, which are much safer than past battery technology. (They also have a long range model that achieved over 1,000km on a single charge).

As they will be kept out of the US market, you probably won't see any in Canada, and Stellantis haven't said they'll put the swap technology into cars for sale - just into rental cars in Europe (a bit like Car2Go was here, when Daimler ran that with Smart cars for a few years).

One battery swap system that interests me is the Australian Janus Electric product. They convert heavy duty trucks to battery electric, with swappable batteries, designed for long-haul trucking across long distances. If we had a similar setup on our major east-west truck route(s) it would have a huge impact on long-haul truck freight (and much cheaper than diesel too). Swapping takes 4 minutes - much faster than filling up with diesel. (Fully Charged video here). With a charging station in the centre of a forestry area, it could also help de-carbonize logging operations. Janus trucks are also not a theoretical concept - they're already supplying truck conversions to haulage, cement and logging companies.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Swapping your batteries can void your warranty.

Not if that is how the car is designed and the manufacturers are part of the program.