Which US cities will see the most growth in the 20s?

[The North One]

I can't believe is gonna be "the 20's" in about six months.

Who knows what will happen next decade.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by The North One

I can't believe is gonna be "the 20's" in about six months.

Who knows what will happen next decade.

Very true. Anything can happen.

[Buckeye Native 001]

If the cities that comprise the Valley of the Sun figure out a way to work together and stop fighting each other constantly and the state legislature becomes a shade more purple, Phoenix could turn out okay, but I'm not entirely optimistic that will happen.

I reckon that at some point, Sal DiCiccio will be Arizona's governor.

[BG918]

The 20’s, at least at first, will be shaped by a Recession. How major and how long is anyone’s guess. Most seem to think it will be more like the recessions in the early 90’s and 00’s but again no one really knows (or maybe they do). That will dictate growth patterns for the rest of the decade.

A good bet is that cities with diverse economies now will continue to grow. I do think growth in the more expensive cities will slow and there will be a continued rise in secondary cities across the country. Trends like rural areas decreasing in population will continue. The biggest wild cards are what will happen with immigration and what types of major events could affect future growth such as a major West Coast earthquake, a major Gulf or Atlantic hurricane and/or terrorist attack.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by Denvergotback

Well it is a list of my own personal opinions about who I think would be the kings of growth. That doesn’t mean they can’t be growing power houses still. I wasn’t counting on someone actually expecting me to name every powerhouse city right now.

I honestly think hurricanes and weather could play a huge outcome for Houston and Orlando, I mean, a lot can be considered also for the 10 year span

Hurricanes would be a large reason for Orlando's growth. People move to Florida in droves and Orlando is the least hurricane prone of the major Florida metros to move to. On the other hand, the last I saw it was fighting with San Antonio for the lowest wages in the U.S.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Hurricanes would be a large reason for Orlando's growth. People move to Florida in droves and Orlando is the least hurricane prone of the major Florida metros to move to. On the other hand, the last I saw it was fighting with San Antonio for the lowest wages in the U.S.

True. Parts of coastal Florida have a lower hurricane risk than Long Island, NY and Southern New England. And on top of that, Orlando being an inland city, the impacts of a storm are lessened.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

Here is my prediction, trying to be objective:

3. Trade will still be impacted by things set in motion by the Trump administration, and so manufacturing will slow down.

I pretty much agree besides this portion. Trade and manufacturing on the Macro level have very little to actually do with Trump.

Global trade in terms of how we understand it now is going under a massive change. Reshoaring is an effect of market forces and Chinese political issues that are pushing manufacturing either back to the USA itself or Mexico and SE Asia.

I dont see manufacturing slowing down in fact its been growing in the USA for years, and will continue to in conjunction with cheap labor in Mexico which is still and will continue to be the largest trading relationship in the history of the world.

Manufacturing might be more automated and thus not have as many people specifically working in that industry, but manufacturing wont be stopping. And global trade will shift to be far more Hemispheric for the USA going forward outside of Japan and SE Asia and maybe Britain. (Australia and NZ too but they are small enough that its pretty inconsequential)

[llamaorama]

I based my theory(really just a guess, this is not something I have an educational background in or even keep up with that much) on two things:

1. Trade between America and the rest of the world, or trade between America and China isn't the only dynamic. Instead its trade between Europe and India or between Southeast Asia and China, etc. The US isn't assured to the birthplace of the next great technologies or host the world's most powerful companies going forward in the future. Those things will instead exist elsewhere and we'll be desperately grabbing for a piece of it while it flows around us.The less open the policies of our government are, the more those things will just bypass us. Therefore, the trend of re-shoring is really just multinationals building some plants for locally consumed goods, and that doesn't like as big of an opportunity.

2. The other part of it is that other countries are becoming more advanced. We can't compete making cheap stuff using cheap labor, but we can compete with sophisticated high value exports. Except there other countries getting better at that.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

True. Parts of coastal Florida have a lower hurricane risk than Long Island, NY and Southern New England. And on top of that, Orlando being an inland city, the impacts of a storm are lessened.

I'm a sucker for maps, and I have to say, that is one damn interesting map. If you live on a part of the coast that juts out into the ocean, you're in trouble. If you live on a part that's tucked in, you're nice and safe (relatively). It's especially true on the east coast where hurricanes tend to make a turn towards the northeast.

The coast of Georgia is relatively safe, tucked in there, hiding behind Florida, which literally sticks out like a sore thumb and gets regularly assaulted.

Cape Hatteras is just asking for it sticking its nose out there.

The coasts of New Hampshire and Maine let Cape Cod take their beatings.

[JAYNYC]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

`

^ This map + a relatively stable, diversified economy, being centrally located with a top 5 major international airport and being in a low-tax state is why the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex will most likely separate itself from the pack and become the next American megacity. The metro area already essentially extends north to Oklahoma today.

[chris08876]

Has not impeded the greater Miami metro area one iota, with growth being very strong.

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by Denvergotback

Well it is a list of my own personal opinions about who I think would be the kings of growth. That doesn’t mean they can’t be growing power houses still. I wasn’t counting on someone actually expecting me to name every powerhouse city right now.

I honestly think hurricanes and weather could play a huge outcome for Houston and Orlando, I mean, a lot can be considered also for the 10 year span

We were just hit hard by a major hurricane. The coastal areas may suffer immensely but Houston will be fine. High level growth, however, will probably shift away from the coast to the northern outer peripherals of the area. Maybe The Woodlands will become an actual anchor city one day instead of an overgrown suburb. (Also reminds me that Baytown is considered an anchor, which is like considering West Covina an anchor of LA or Orange an anchor of New York).

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

Here is my prediction, trying to be objective:

1. There will be a recession at some point in the 20's
2. The tech industry will slow down a little as the industry grows mature and saturated and the dubiously overvalued companies get a reality check.
3. Trade will still be impacted by things set in motion by the Trump administration, and so manufacturing will slow down.
4. The number of immigrants will decrease, legal and illegal. Also Hispanics will be demographically older and have fewer kids.
5. The rest of the world led by the EU and China will start to take action against the fossil fuel and petrochemical industry due to climate change, while at the same time drilling technology will be even more sophisticated than it is now and keep supply high. Translation: oil industry won't boom again anytime soon.

Because of those things, I would expect:

1. The West Coast cities will all slow down a lot and SF and LA will actively lose population. The cost of living will accelerate negative domestic migration and there will be fewer immigrants moving there. At the same time the tech industry won't be as white-hot as it is now.

2. Smaller southern cities like Huntsville, Greenville, Charleston, Chattanooga, Montgomery, etc that had an advanced manufacturing renaissance will slow down due to trade issues and foreign competition coming back into play. Our major trading partners are signing deals with Asia without us and places where we'd export goods are going to get them from other places.

3. The Sunbelt will slow down in terms of absolute population change due to fewer immigrants. Places that are heavily service oriented like Orlando and Las Vegas will slow down. If there is a recession they'll get clobbered.

4. Houston will continue to grow quickly but oil won't make it go bonkers like it did around 2010 or so. It will continue to diversify. If there is a major hurricane again it have a few bad years but I don't see the growth stopping any time soon.

The cities that are growing rapidly next decade will look basically the same as now, I expect the leaders would then be:

Dallas
Phoenix
Charlotte
SLC
Nashville
Denver
Houston

San Francisco is too popular to slow down. It won't slow down until it is completely saturated in occupants. If only there was no such thing as earthquakes, San Francisco would really grow. LA has a ton of available land and is decentralized, so people will move out there regardless of whether they see the blue streets signs or not (one way to know for sure you're in LA).

[uaarkson]

Wild card: Detroit smokes every other city on percentage gains

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by Docere

Jacksonville.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

San Francisco is too popular to slow down.

Thats not how anything works my man.

[ThePhun1]

Okay then:

"...anytime soon."

That better?

[twister244]

Here in Denver, I could see things growing within the city limits at a slower pace over the next decade just because it's become pretty expensive to own/rent. Of course, if some crazy new industry pops up here like marijuana did in 2014, then maybe it will speed the growth back up. I definitely see the front range in general though continuing to grow at a fast clip over the next decade. Denver is expensive, but you can still find reasonable real estate elsewhere along the Front Range if you still want that western mountain lifestyle.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

Okay then:

"...anytime soon."

That better?

The Bay Area had a massive economic downturn during the last tech bust, with population loss and sky-high unemployment. San Jose had the worst performing economy of any MSA in the U.S. The same will happen when there's a crash.

But the region will probably recover quickly, once again, and there will be another boom, rinse, repeat.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

Okay then:

"...anytime soon."

That better?

yes!

However the future always throws curve balls and can always result in massive changes in populations and economics.

For all we know some magical new substance will be discovered under Elko NV turning it into a massive energy producing boom-town by 2035. You just dont know.

At one time some people expected Buffalo to be the biggest city in the world. in 1945 Singapore was an exotic outpost for the British empire, now look at it.