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  #13001  
Old Posted Jul 15, 2017, 7:51 PM
kwoldtimer kwoldtimer is offline
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Originally Posted by kiwi View Post
Maybe the best thing he can do is not make a bad situation worse.

Trudeau is trying to do two things both the economy and the environment he has to pick one or the other.
I don't believe that to be true, but if it were true, one is reminded of the old adage about being careful what you wish for - you might not like what he chooses.
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  #13002  
Old Posted Jul 15, 2017, 8:00 PM
Hackslack Hackslack is online now
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
You said it - the fact that global demand for you guys' dead dinos went sharply down can't be blamed on anyone in Ottawa. Harper couldn't prevent it, Trudeau can't change it.
It's not demand that went sharply down, its that supply went sharply up. The world still craves oil now more than in boom times.

Trudeau can help change it by approving and seeing pipelines get built. That'll undoubtably help the situation in Ab.
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  #13003  
Old Posted Jul 15, 2017, 10:29 PM
VANRIDERFAN VANRIDERFAN is offline
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Originally Posted by rousseau View Post
It's happening. It's happening now. The postwar world order is now officially, irrevocably, undeniably over. And it had very little to do with the orange infant in the White House. The twentieth century didn't actually end on September 11th, 2001. In retrospect, the hopes of 1989 look very far away, even quaint. Which is sad to me, as I came of age during that admittedly naive time when we were supposed to be moving away from international or ideological struggles.

Future historians will undoubtedly mark the transition to the new Sinopolar* era at some point during the mid-2010s. Because of this:



The "post-Cold War era" turns out not to have been much of an era at all, and will end up as a minor footnote in history, perhaps a transition period, subsumed into the twentieth century. Which, if you want to count an announcement in the media as a way of marking a timepost for these things (and really, why not?), apparently ended on Wednesday.

The rumblings in the Arab world? The fear of Islamic terrorism? All a side show in the larger scheme of things. Which is not to pooh-pooh the fact that assholes blowing up concerts in Manchester and buses in Israel have been doing their best to wreak devastation on as many people as their puny means can muster. It just that none of that ever had the potential to be so wide-ranging or, if you will, apocalyptic.

People the world over are eventually going to be unable to not think about China in the same way that they haven't been able to not think about the United States. It will be interesting to watch and see when and if the former overtakes the latter.


*I honestly just came up with that myself, but a quick Google search shows the term here: https://www.cgdev.org/article/sinopo...iness-standard. I think we'll all be using it in short order.
You must remember the "Peace Dividend". I was at Basic Officer Training in Chilliwack BC when the Berlin Wall came down. We all laughed that they would be handing us EI applications instead of our commissioning scrolls. Funny thing is we had no idea how busy we would be, where we would go and the cost to ourselves over the next 28 years.
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  #13004  
Old Posted Jul 15, 2017, 11:51 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by Hackslack View Post
It's not demand that went sharply down, its that supply went sharply up. The world still craves oil now more than in boom times.

Trudeau can help change it by approving and seeing pipelines get built. That'll undoubtably help the situation in Ab.
I said global demand for your oil went down. Which it did. Sharply. Surely we can agree on the basic facts? I swear I'm not saying this to argue.
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  #13005  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 12:01 AM
Rollerstud98 Rollerstud98 is offline
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I said global demand for your oil went down. Which it did. Sharply. Surely we can agree on the basic facts? I swear I'm not saying this to argue.
Everything I've seen reported showed demand going up

Do you have stats to back up that demand went down?
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  #13006  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 12:22 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by Rollerstud98 View Post
Do you have stats to back up that demand went down?
Alberta oil price evolution for the last few years + basic laws of supply and demand is my "evidence" to back up what I just said.

If new sources of affordable oil come online faster than general demand for oil goes up, then demand for expensive, non-conventional oil goes down. I don't see how the contrary could possibly happen? Oil is a fungible commodity, it's all interchangeable.
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  #13007  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 12:24 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by Rollerstud98 View Post
Everything I've seen reported showed demand going up
Well then I'm glad to hear the good news and I'm happy for you guys that your main industry is doing better than before, demand for its product being on the rise (always great in any business).
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  #13008  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 12:33 AM
Rollerstud98 Rollerstud98 is offline
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General oil demand was outpaced by supply for a couple years resulting in the commodity price crash. Demand is supposedly starting to outpace supply due to OPEC and Russian cuts. There aren't vast tank farms being built up to hold all the supply that isn't being sold here. Oil production has continued to rise in the region other than during the shutdown due to the fires last year. Many large scale projects were just coming online or close to coming online when everything went for shit end of 2014 leading up to 2016. Exploration has been down, new well drilling is down, although new well drilling is up by several thousand wells this year compared to last.

Alberta bitumen has always sold at a discount, large part of that is due to being expensive to ship it therefore refiners want to pay less. With more pipelines built, shipping costs would drop and suppliers would be able to ask/receive a better per barrel price.

Your evidence is anecdotal, not fact based

Last edited by Rollerstud98; Jul 16, 2017 at 12:47 AM.
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  #13009  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 12:33 AM
Hackslack Hackslack is online now
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I said global demand for your oil went down. Which it did. Sharply. Surely we can agree on the basic facts? I swear I'm not saying this to argue.
You spread false truths. Global oil demand since the boom years of 2013/2014 has increased significantly. It's the OPEC huge supply increase to try to take back the market share and drive the US shale oil produces and oil sands producers out of the market whhich drove the oil prices down.

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

Trudeau approving and seeing pipelines get built helps with Canadian oil producers global market share, and make Canada more competitive.

Oil demand is increasing, and is forecasted to increase for sometime.
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  #13010  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 12:46 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by Hackslack View Post
You spread false truths. Global oil demand since the boom years of 2013/2014 has increased significantly. It's the OPEC huge supply increase to try to take back the market share and drive the US shale oil produces and oil sands producers out of the market whhich drove the oil prices down.
I mean, if you have to greatly slash your prices to move the same volume as previously, by definition you can't say that demand for your product specifically is the same as back when you could sell your entire volume every year at high prices.

... even though technically, you have as many, or even more, customers as before.

Anyway, I think you know what I mean. Just so we're clear, I am fully aware that demand for oil is still rising, i.e. hasn't peaked yet (I actually expect it to peak soon-ish, though I have no crystal ball).
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  #13011  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 2:04 AM
khabibulin khabibulin is offline
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I don't believe that to be true, but if it were true, one is reminded of the old adage about being careful what you wish for - you might not like what he chooses.
One policy I think Canada should consider is to ban, or impose huge tariffs on oil imported from the Middle East, South America and Africa. Why bring all those supertankers into our harbours when Canada could be self-sufficient regarding oil? I mean we do it for milk and cheese, why not oil?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cana...orts-1.1137804

Canada exports about two-thirds of its oil to the United States— while half of the oil used in Canada is imported from other countries.
Western Canada is self-sufficient, supplying its own oil before exporting the rest. But Eastern Canada relies on imported oil — despite the fact that some provinces are oil producers.
There are several offshore drilling operations in Newfoundland and Labrador, but none of the oil is actually used in Canada. The eastern provinces rely on an oil supply that's imported from Saudi Arabia, Africa and Venezuela.
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  #13012  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 3:01 AM
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Originally Posted by kiwi View Post
Calgary but a lot of the increased crime can be attributed to the bad economy.
Perhaps but crime is not always correlated to prosperity. Atlantic Canada is the least affluent part of the country and generally has the lowest crime rates.
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  #13013  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 3:12 AM
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Perhaps but crime is not always correlated to prosperity. Atlantic Canada is the least affluent part of the country and generally has the lowest crime rates.
There's nothing worth stealing here.......
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  #13014  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 2:11 PM
kwoldtimer kwoldtimer is offline
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Originally Posted by khabibulin View Post
One policy I think Canada should consider is to ban, or impose huge tariffs on oil imported from the Middle East, South America and Africa. Why bring all those supertankers into our harbours when Canada could be self-sufficient regarding oil? I mean we do it for milk and cheese, why not oil?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cana...orts-1.1137804

Canada exports about two-thirds of its oil to the United States— while half of the oil used in Canada is imported from other countries.
Western Canada is self-sufficient, supplying its own oil before exporting the rest. But Eastern Canada relies on imported oil — despite the fact that some provinces are oil producers.
There are several offshore drilling operations in Newfoundland and Labrador, but none of the oil is actually used in Canada. The eastern provinces rely on an oil supply that's imported from Saudi Arabia, Africa and Venezuela.
One could do something like that as part of a national policy of some sort, but it seems a rather antiquated approach. The lack of pipelines apart, is there much in the way of economic justification for it as long as Alberta oil prices are linked to those of the world market? I haven't followed the Energy East issue enough to know whether the economic justification comes from supplying domestic markets, or from export opportunities.
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  #13015  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2017, 10:50 PM
Hackslack Hackslack is online now
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I mean, if you have to greatly slash your prices to move the same volume as previously, by definition you can't say that demand for your product specifically is the same as back when you could sell your entire volume every year at high prices.

... even though technically, you have as many, or even more, customers as before.

Anyway, I think you know what I mean. Just so we're clear, I am fully aware that demand for oil is still rising, i.e. hasn't peaked yet (I actually expect it to peak soon-ish, though I have no crystal ball).
Simply, the market is oversupplied by those who have little to no environmental regulations, OPEC countries. Demand for oil is trending up from the boom years, it's just that, as I say, OPEC countries have watered down the market, driving prices lower. Simply put, record levels of global supply has outpaced record levels of global demand, and therefore it's not the demand that is dictating low oil prices, it's the supply, and a main reason for the oversupply is OPEC countries want to drive the higher cost producers (oil sands, US shale oil) out of the market.
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  #13016  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2017, 12:37 AM
geotag277 geotag277 is offline
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I would argue what we are seeing these days is really the natural state of the oil market. Saudi Arabia should be forced to sell it's oil for very close to what it costs to pull it out of the ground. The fact they can't balance their budgets without artificially inflated oil prices (which is what they are when OPEC colludes to control supply) is a consequence of the massive collusion, manipulation of the markets, and artificial price of oil.

The natural state of the oil market is pre-Standard Oil - many many many small players constantly going bankrupt and competing with each other and the price of oil accurately reflecting almost exactly the cost to extract it. In an ideal market, Alberta's oil sands would never have had the business case to pull it out of the ground in the first place (except maybe a handful of projects).
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  #13017  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2017, 2:50 AM
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Oil prices will eventually rise again and Alberta may see another boom, which each boom/bust commodity prices always do, each boom will be smaller than the last.

Oil will be with us for a very long time but each boom is one of diminishing returns. It is very much a needed commodity but it's need is and will continue to decline. This is much similar to coal. What was once the world's most important non-food commodity is still there but of continually declining relevance and the same thing will happen to oil. No great collapse but just a continual slow decline into obscurity where it's demand will go from one of national import to more niche oriented.
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  #13018  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2017, 6:59 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
You said it - the fact that global demand for you guys' dead dinos went sharply down can't be blamed on anyone in Ottawa. Harper couldn't prevent it, Trudeau can't change it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I said global demand for your oil went down. Which it did. Sharply. Surely we can agree on the basic facts? I swear I'm not saying this to argue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Alberta oil price evolution for the last few years + basic laws of supply and demand is my "evidence" to back up what I just said.

If new sources of affordable oil come online faster than general demand for oil goes up, then demand for expensive, non-conventional oil goes down. I don't see how the contrary could possibly happen? Oil is a fungible commodity, it's all interchangeable.
Demand has risen and continues to rise. Production rose faster which is why prices dropped.

https://labs.timogrossenbacher.ch/worldoil/
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  #13019  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2017, 2:15 PM
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...the U.S. president is no longer the leader of the free world. And Canada ... led by Justin Trudeau, seems to be gunning to take over that mantle.
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  #13020  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2017, 2:34 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Alberta oil price evolution for the last few years + basic laws of supply and demand is my "evidence" to back up what I just said.
As others have said, Canada's exports of heavy oil (WCS) has increased over the past 5 years by 80% (link). And while the world price for oil has dropped over that time, the differential between WTI and WCS has remained pretty much static.

So demand has increased and the price (relative) has remained the same.
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Oil is a fungible commodity, it's all interchangeable.
Totally untrue. Refineries are optimized for different feedstocks ranging from light to heavy oils with varying sweetness levels. Many of the US Gulf refineries were set up to process heavy oil from Venezuela. Since WCS is cheaper than Orinoco, that is where refineries like to source their feedstock from (hence the 80% increase in WCS exports to the US). You can't just replace your feedstock with a different grade material for no costs or in real time.

And don't forget refinery costs includes many variables including transportation costs. Regardless of how "cheap" it is to extract oil in the ME, you still have $10-15 per barrel in shipping costs to address vs an average of $2-3 per barrel of pipeline delivered oil.
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I said global demand for your oil went down. Which it did. Sharply. Surely we can agree on the basic facts? I swear I'm not saying this to argue.
This link shows that worldwide demand for oil has increased every year since 2006 and previous links show that exports of WCS have increased every year for the past 10 years at a stable price. As such it appears that your assertion is not correct.
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Last edited by shreddog; Jul 18, 2017 at 5:15 PM.
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