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  #421  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2017, 11:41 PM
innovativethinking innovativethinking is offline
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Originally Posted by soleri View Post
Why do people take this stuff personally? Do you think there's a conspiracy in government to deprive you of super-talls? Or that there's a secret cabal of NIMBYs frustrating you just because they can?

Why not accept that Portland is not the biggest or most dynamic city in the world? I'd much rather see good architecture with human-scaled street presence than some tower that looks like it belongs in Houston. Real-estate developers are not in the business of catering to the priapic fantasies of skyscraper fetishists.
Hmm maybe
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  #422  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 1:47 AM
58rhodes 58rhodes is online now
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from the aat website

Lloyd District Phase II is in its preliminary Design Review stages with the City of Portland and may not ultimately come to fruition.

Seems like they dont really know what they are going to do
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  #423  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 3:50 AM
innovativethinking innovativethinking is offline
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Originally Posted by 58rhodes View Post
from the aat website

Lloyd District Phase II is in its preliminary Design Review stages with the City of Portland and may not ultimately come to fruition.

Seems like they dont really know what they are going to do
It was too ambition from the start anyways
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  #424  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 4:42 AM
Tykendo Tykendo is offline
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Originally Posted by soleri View Post
Why do people take this stuff personally? Do you think there's a conspiracy in government to deprive you of super-talls? Or that there's a secret cabal of NIMBYs frustrating you just because they can?

Why not accept that Portland is not the biggest or most dynamic city in the world? I'd much rather see good architecture with human-scaled street presence than some tower that looks like it belongs in Houston. Real-estate developers are not in the business of catering to the priapic fantasies of skyscraper fetishists.
Maybe not, but Portland should strive to be more, and that includes architecture that occasionally detours from the norm. I'm not saying there needs to be a super tall, but a nice sleek 600 foot-700 footer that doesn't look like it came from the Stumpy Bland Architectural Firm would be nice.
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  #425  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 4:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Tykendo View Post
Maybe not, but Portland should strive to be more, and that includes architecture that occasionally detours from the norm. I'm not saying there needs to be a super tall, but a nice sleek 600 foot-700 footer that doesn't look like it came from the Stumpy Bland Architectural Firm would be nice.
That's still asking for too much for some people
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  #426  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 7:20 PM
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That's still asking for too much for some people
If you're going to spend your whole life complaining about what Portland isn't rather than enjoying what Portland is, wouldn't you be better off finding a city that is what you want?
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  #427  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 8:38 PM
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If you're going to spend your whole life complaining about what Portland isn't rather than enjoying what Portland is, wouldn't you be better off finding a city that is what you want?
No Portland is my home town it wouldnt feel the same

It just sucks because this Oregon square project was amazing I don't know why they chickened out
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  #428  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 8:46 PM
58rhodes 58rhodes is online now
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If you're going to spend your whole life complaining about what Portland isn't rather than enjoying what Portland is, wouldn't you be better off finding a city that is what you want?
What is it that Portland is--I mean compared to other places?

its a nice town to me --town
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  #429  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 11:14 PM
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Originally Posted by innovativethinking View Post
It just sucks because this Oregon square project was amazing I don't know why they chickened out
They didn't chicken out. They made a business decision.

AAT is not in the business of making us feel good about ourselves. They're hard-nosed and reality-based. The trim their sales when the leasing data tells them the market is softer than they believed. I wish the market here were deeper than it is but it apparently isn't. The great thing about Portland is that it's a high-quality city and will continue to attract newcomers. If it gets a few more high-rise apartment buildings, great. Otherwise, enjoy Portland for what it is.
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  #430  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2017, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by innovativethinking View Post
No Portland is my home town it wouldnt feel the same

It just sucks because this Oregon square project was amazing I don't know why they chickened out
Just because you are born and grow up in a place doesn't mean you have to stay there if you are unhappy with the city. I grew up in Virginia, but the best thing I did for myself was move away to a place I am much happier in.

I also think it is good for people to move away from their hometowns in order to get a better perspective on life and where you are from.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 58rhodes View Post
What is it that Portland is--I mean compared to other places?

its a nice town to me --town
We became a city a while ago, Portland is the largest place in Oregon and has the development and big city problems that other large cities have. We are no longer that large town place, that status went away years ago. Now we have to think and act like a big city.
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  #431  
Old Posted Jun 14, 2017, 1:56 PM
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From the DJC

Changing development schemes
By: Chuck Slothower


Wade Lange is a vice president and regional manager with American Assets Trust, which is considering changing one of the four buildings at its planned Oregon Square development from multifamily to office. (Sam Tenney/DJC)
The developer of Oregon Square, the four-block mixed-use development in the Lloyd District, is weighing a major change that illustrates how developers consider the best use for their properties.
American Assets Trust last month quietly proposed changing schemes in Oregon Square’s second phase in a design advice request submitted to the city of Portland. Block 103 would become a speculative office building, instead of one with apartments.
Wade Lange, vice president and regional manager at AAT, said office use is just one option the developer is considering.
“We have no direction yet,” he said. “We’re just looking at options.”
The project description submitted to the Bureau of Development Services isn’t binding. It is meant to give the developer and city staff a framework to discuss an upcoming project.
Yet the indication that AAT is considering a change to offices just months after the Design Commission issued approval bolsters an evident trend among developers toward offices and away from multifamily.
It’s not uncommon for developers to change schemes during the development process, but doing so can be costly.
“It’s a big lift,” said Chris Nelson, co-founder of Portland-based developer Capstone Partners. “To make that change, it’s a pretty big change. You’re going to completely rethink how that property is going to be used and utilized.”
Changing the proposed use of a building in development can easily set a project back a year for redesign and a return to the Design Commission for re-approval, Nelson said. Project teams that change schemes also must go back for different financing because the cost and revenue structures change.
Oregon Square was approved by the Design Commission on Oct. 6, 2016. It was the second trip through design review for Oregon Square, this time with a phased approach and more apartments. The development was first approved by the Design Commission in November 2015.
As approved last year, the building on Block 103 was to be a 30-floor mixed-use building with 347 apartments over ground-floor retail space.
The new proposal would do away with the apartments, replacing them with office space, and adding below-grade parking for prospective office tenants.
Lange met with architects from GBD Architects on Monday to discuss the options for Oregon Square’s second phase. Lange said no decisions have been made, and AAT will take a long view toward the likely market dynamics.
“We’re really looking down the road because we’re quite a ways from putting a shovel in the dirt,” he said. “We just want to examine all the different options and arrive at the highest and best use from an investment standpoint.”
The San Diego-based company acquired more than 16 acres in the Lloyd District in 2011. The four-block development is seen as a keystone property for the district.
AAT was earning an average $24.95 per leased square foot on its Lloyd District office properties, according to an April securities filing. The 581,670 square feet was 75.8 percent leased as of March 31.
Lange said the possible switch to office space is not driven by softening in the luxury apartment market.
“No, it really is just kind of keeping all of our options open as we start working through the details,” he said.
AAT’s Lloyd District apartments were performing well as of March 31, when the company most recently reported public investor data. Hassalo on Eighth’s apartments have largely filled up after opening for leasing last year. The Velomor building’s 177 units were 92.7 percent leased at average monthly base rents of $1,638. The Aster Tower’s 337 units were 91.4 percent leased at $1,626 average rents. And the Elwood building’s 143 units were 94.4 percent leased at $1,497 average rents.
There was no change in scheme for Hassalo on Eighth, which was AAT’s first development in Portland and was completed in 2015.
“It was always going to be residential,” Lange said. “It was what the market needed; it was what Lloyd needed.”
Nelson said it makes sense for AAT to explore office uses for future phases, particularly in the Lloyd District, where an office submarket is already established.
“To switch some portion of the business plan to office seems like the natural thing to do,” he said. “It’s an established area for office and if you see the supply-demand fundamentals changing, it makes sense to make a shift depending on the property and the market.”
The pace of submissions for new multifamily proposals has slowed dramatically since the city of Portland adopted an inclusionary zoning program that went into effect Feb. 1. Oregon Square is not subject to those regulations because it went through the entitlement process before then.
Making multifamily projects profitable has become challenging, Nelson said.
“The economics of ground-up multifamily right now are really difficult,” he said. “They were before the inclusionary zoning regulations, and they were before the relatively new construction excise tax. The economics are really challenging.
“It’s not a rent-growth market anymore – there’s more choice,” he added.
Developers constantly attempt to forecast the likely market for when they develop a given product. In both the office and multifamily sectors, significant new inventory is expected to come to market this year and in 2018.
Office developments by their nature depend on fewer tenants than multifamily ones, making it imperative to score tenants who will take significant space.
“The speculative nature of office has a higher risk,” Nelson said.
Developers in general are trending away from designs that are tied to specific uses. That’s part of the reason for the renewed popularity of historic warehouse structures, which can be used for residential, office, retail or even hospitality purposes, said Noel Johnson, principal at Portland developer Cairn Pacific.
“A good building’s a good building,” he said.
Johnson said Portland’s design review process should be agnostic to how a building is used. More employers are offering the “comforts of home” at work, blurring the tidy definitions of residential and office. Additional trips through the design review process because of a change in use add costs with little benefit, Johnson said.
“It’s an interesting illustration of how our land use and development codes are broken,” he said. “Why is design review concerned with use?”
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  #432  
Old Posted Jun 14, 2017, 7:36 PM
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  #433  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2017, 7:21 PM
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Drawings [16 MB] for the Phase 2 alternative.
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  #434  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2017, 7:46 PM
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Looking through the drawings I see that while Scheme 1 is office only, in Schemes 2 and 3 they are looking at keeping a residential program (with as many as 420 units!). I assume that if they resubmit this for design review they would be subject to the current code, including inclusionary zoning.
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  #435  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2017, 9:40 PM
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Yawn...it's come a long way since the original proposal (and obviously not in a good way).
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  #436  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2017, 11:34 PM
innovativethinking innovativethinking is offline
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Yawn...it's come a long way since the original proposal (and obviously not in a good way).
Tell me about it. All the sudden they got scared in a booming economy/market

Odd
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  #437  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2017, 3:37 AM
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Tell me about it. All the sudden they got scared in a booming economy/market

Odd
Nationally, apartment rental rates are declining and occupancy rates are starting to roll over. Other commercial real estate metrics are deteriorating too. I have not seen much data for Portland, but one report I did see said rental rate growth has been declining and recently touched zero. Not a drastic slowdown yet, but AAT and its lenders have to think about what the market will be in 3 years, not today.

One scenario is that 2017 is the peak of this commercial real estate cycle in Portland. May not ultimately prove correct, but certainly is a realistic possibility.
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  #438  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2017, 5:35 AM
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Nationally, apartment rental rates are declining and occupancy rates are starting to roll over. Other commercial real estate metrics are deteriorating too. I have not seen much data for Portland, but one report I did see said rental rate growth has been declining and recently touched zero. Not a drastic slowdown yet, but AAT and its lenders have to think about what the market will be in 3 years, not today.

One scenario is that 2017 is the peak of this commercial real estate cycle in Portland. May not ultimately prove correct, but certainly is a realistic possibility.
I do think Portland might have hit its peak with residential units marked up as much as possible. There is still a demand for residential units in Portland, but not so much in the $2500+ range. So it will be interesting to see what happens with all the units coming online in the next few years when it becomes harder and harder to fill units at the current rates.
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  #439  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2017, 12:03 AM
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  #440  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2017, 8:56 PM
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Mentioned at the recent Design Commission hearing: GBD are about to go into Construction Documents for Phase I. Knowing that, I would guess that they could submit for building later this year.
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