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  #21  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 10:13 PM
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Perhaps, but she's too young and untested.
We should remember what happened to the last guy we (and I include myself in that 'We') said that about
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  #22  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 10:19 PM
eternallyme eternallyme is offline
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The NDP lost just over 1 million votes between 2011 and 2015, or about one-quarter of the 2015 voters. That was the biggest loss for any party - the Conservatives only lost about 220,000 (almost all in Atlantic Canada and the Vancouver area), and the Liberals gained over four million, about three-quarters of it came from the couches in 2011.
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  #23  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 10:29 PM
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One area of concern for the NDP should have to be the fact they are out to lunch among visible minority voters. They do even worse than the Conservatives (who themselves do very poorly with them - the Liberals dominate among them). How to turn that around without losing their activist base?
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  #24  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 11:04 PM
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One area of concern for the NDP should have to be the fact they are out to lunch among visible minority voters. They do even worse than the Conservatives (who themselves do very poorly with them - the Liberals dominate among them). How to turn that around without losing their activist base?
I did not know that. I would have thought they'd have appeal among South Asians, among others. Is it for lack of outreach or is it their progressive social positions? Or something else?
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  #25  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 11:19 PM
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I did not know that. I would have thought they'd have appeal among South Asians, among others. Is it for lack of outreach or is it their progressive social positions? Or something else?
Many Asians are social conservatives.

Harper used to pander to them in some suburban Toronto tidings.
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  #26  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 11:31 PM
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If the NDP is to survive, they will have to move to the left somewhat. The centre is occupied by the Liberals, and going up against them is a losing proposition for the NDP.

The key for the NDP is how they brand themselves. If they try to brand themselves as socialists, or democratic socialists, they are doomed. To survive, they will have to find a way to brand themselves as a social democratic party, and eject any members that use the "socialist" moniker. They seem to be heading in that direction, as they've removed the word socialist from their party's constitution.

While most people don't understand the distinction between social democracy and democratic socialism and use them interchangeably, the two are very different. Social democracy simply aims to "tame" the capitalist/market system, not replace it, by reducing inequality, enhancing the welfare state, and through support of a mixed economy. Democratic socialism aims to replace capitalism all together. One is simply a bit naive, the other is positively destructive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_socialism

The Scandinavian countries are social democracies, they do not follow democratic socialism. Whenever politicians like Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn brand themselves as democratic socialists it makes me cringe. Their political views, categorize them as social democrats. Democratic socialism is just traditional socialism with a ribbon attached to it. Trying to eliminate the stigma attached to democratic socialism is a dangerous proposition. It deserves every part of its bad reputation. Social Democracy on the other hand, is a much more tame philosophy, and for most, opposition to it simply comes down to ideological views on the role of government, and how generous the welfare system should be.

TL/DR: If the NDP stays in the centre, it will slowly die off as the Liberals continue to eat away at the party's support. If the NDP shifts modestly to the left and chooses to brand itself as a social democratic party, they will achieve reasonable success as a left-wing party that supports social programs and the welfare state, though they will be unlikely to achieve more than minority government status. If they shift too far to the left and adopt a democratic socialist ideology, they will never form the official opposition, let alone the government, and will simply be politically irrelevant mouthpiece for the loony left.
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  #27  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I did not know that. I would have thought they'd have appeal among South Asians, among others. Is it for lack of outreach or is it their progressive social positions? Or something else?
South Asian heavy Surrey ridings in the Lower Mainland often go NDP, this election the Liberals took them.
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  #28  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 11:44 PM
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Harsh treatment for Mulcair, who was the best Parliamentarian the NDP had in a long time. I guess they're still deluding themselves that it was anything other than Layton's charisma aligning perfectly in time with one of the numerous turns of the fickle Quebec electorate that vaulted them into official opposition status.

Considering how long they stuck with duds like Alexa McDonough and what was the other woman(?) it's pretty shameful treatment. His support must have always been shallow.
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  #29  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2016, 11:59 PM
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Harsh treatment for Mulcair, who was the best Parliamentarian the NDP had in a long time. I guess they're still deluding themselves that it was anything other than Layton's charisma aligning perfectly in time with one of the numerous turns of the fickle Quebec electorate that vaulted them into official opposition status.

Considering how long they stuck with duds like Alexa McDonough and what was the other woman(?) it's pretty shameful treatment. His support must have always been shallow.
I think the pur laine true believers amongst the dippers viewed Mulcair with considerable suspicion. They didn't like the shift to the centre and viewed him as a nothing more than a Liberal in sheep's clothing, a traitor not to be trusted.

The true believers think it is much more important to be true to your socialist principles rather to actually be in a position of gaining power.
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  #30  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 1:25 AM
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I fully agree. They lost by going quasi-centrist.
I disagree. Going quasi-centrist actually enabled them to have a pretty high result by their historical standards -- by going quasi-centrist they achieved last October their second best result of all time, in fact (44 MPs). The center is where the votes are, not the far left.
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  #31  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 1:26 AM
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I prefer my Tories to be just slightly to the right of the Liberals. Conservative enough to have a pro business agenda and a lower tax regime, but centrist enough to serve as a reasonable alternative to the majority of the electorate once the Liberals slip up and display their typical arrogance and corruption.
This is very very well said. It's also the opposite of the modus operandi of the Liberal Party: pander to the left in order to get elected, but preserve enough wiggle room to move to the right to build consensus with the business community and other interests. And, when they get too cozy with those interests and their government reaches its expiration date, the Tories have the responsibility to have positioned themselves as a centrist alternative. So a Red Tory is called for this time, though maybe not quite like a Joe Clark since a "hard turn to the left" (as if that's possible) would frighten some about the prospects of an upstart Western alternative.

On the NDP leadership: I agree with others that electing a "socialist" would be a mistake. Stephen Lewis spoke at the convention about "socialism." Does anyone know how successful the Lewis premiership in Ontario was? Exactly... Good for him to become opposition leader, but the other two parties have a knack for adopting NDP policy (and actually, you know, implementing it) and leaving the NDP with positions relatively unacceptable to mainstream voters.

If the federal NDP elects another centrist, they might have a shot at official opposition again (in a decade) and the ability to really influence government. If they go hard left, they'll win 15 or so seats for the next x elections, and their main question will be whether they get official party status.
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  #32  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 1:48 AM
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We should remember what happened to the last guy we (and I include myself in that 'We') said that about
True, but I should have emphasized too young. She's 33.
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  #33  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 1:49 AM
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I think it would be a wrenching change for the Conservatives to position themselves as a centrist party, for a variety of reasons but especially because of Reform, Harper and the widespread anti-tax mood. Even if a "Progressive Conservative" were to become leader, I think they would need to tread very carefully in trying to shift the party's centre of gravity. If someone were to openly campaign on it, I believe they would lose the coming leadership contest.
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  #34  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 1:51 AM
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In some ways it's unfortunate. Regardless of what you thought of him personally or politically, he was one of the best Official Opposition leaders the country has had in decades. He did a superb job of holding Harper to account.

The loss of the election and his personal demise on the other hand was completely self- inflicted. His switch to the middle during the campaign with his stupid "balanced budget" was seen by everyone as a lie and a deceit by a leader and party trying anything to gain power.

I think the real issue now is not who will replace Mulcair but rather if this could be the beginning of the end for the NDP whether they morph into something new or decide to create a new alliance with the Greens potentially. After 70 years in federal politics the NDP has to start looking at itself and realizing that they may never win and election and it's time to try something entirely new.
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  #35  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 2:17 AM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I disagree. Going quasi-centrist actually enabled them to have a pretty high result by their historical standards -- by going quasi-centrist they achieved last October their second best result of all time, in fact (44 MPs). The center is where the votes are, not the far left.
Second best result of all time is a bit of misnomer, first of all. There are more seats in the House than there were before. So a result like Broadbent's 43 seats in a 280-something seat House is a far more impressive result than Mulcair's. The 44 seats isn't a particularly great result for the NDP, but also not a particularly terrible result. However, any election strategy that takes you from unprecedented highs in the previous election to a historically middle of the road result is not a great strategy.

And yes, there are a lot of votes in the centre, centre-left in Canada. But the Liberals own that space. By 2020 the Liberals will have governed for some 80+ years between 1900 and that point. If the NDP decides to unhinge from its grassroots base and instead attempt to defeat one of the most prominent political parties in the Western Democratic world by occupying the same space on the political spectrum as them, I don't think that will be an effective strategy for ever being relevant. In fact, the party would no longer have any reason to exist. Moving back to the left is about the only way the NDP will remain relevant, and given the excitement being stirred up among younger generations in Britain and the US for further left politicians, it probably would be a better strategy for future growth.
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  #36  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 4:26 AM
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Two matters that I was watching this weekend vis-a-vis the fed NDP convention:

1. Would the NDP delegates actually endorse the Leap Manifesto?

2. Would Mulcair retain, at a minimum, 70% delegate support in order to remain?

The Leap Manifesto is what interested me. Basically a radical, hard-left enviro turn for the party. It's components:

— Shift swiftly away from fossil fuels so that Canada gets 100 per cent of its electricity from renewable resources within 20 years and is entirely weaned off fossil fuels by 2050.

— No new infrastructure projects aimed at increasing extraction of non-renewable resources, including pipelines.

— “Energy democracy,” in which energy sources are collectively controlled by communities instead of “profit-gouging” private companies.

— An end to all trade deals “that interfere with our attempts to rebuild local economies, regulate corporations and stop damaging extractive projects.”

— Expand low-carbon sectors of the economy, such as caregiving, teaching, social work, the arts and public-interest media.

And what is that "energy democracy" thingy about? Nationalizing all oil and gas companies?

In any event, the fed NDP resolution began with this preamble:

"The NDP recognizes and supports the Leap Manifesto as a high-level statement of principles that speaks to the aspirations, history, and values of the party." [details to be determined]

And it passed by a 60% to 40% margin. Basically the fed NDP has thrown the BC, AB, and SK provincial NDP wings under the bus with that move. BC alone has $10s of billions in proposed nat gas pipelines proposed to the NW coast, along with proposed LNG terminals, and NE BC nat gas basin expansion.

Was watching the Leap Manifesto being debated on CPAC this morning and noticed one delegate from BC - Joe Barrett, son of former BC NDP premier Dave Barrett (1972 - 1975), basically pleading with delegates not to approve the Leap Manifesto motion.

Kady O'Malley of the Ottawa Citizen tweeted out same:

Quote:
A BC delegate -- Dave Barrett's son! -- warns the motion will mean they 'get burnt,' and "get the opposite of what we want.' #NDP2016

The message this resolution will send to BC, he says, is that the NDP is "against everything under all circumstances." #NDP2016
Barrett obviously understands the negative political ramifications for the NDP here in BC and others have also corroborated same.

In AB, they are now calling for the provincial NDP gov't to split from the fed NDP.

And I certainly concur with this evenings headline from Michael Den Tandt:

Quote:
With its Jack Layton-esque centrism in tatters, radical Leap Manifesto will doom the NDP
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-co...-will-doom-ndp

As for Mulcair, he attempted to pull a Tony Blair, during the election campaign, believing that the Liberal carcass was ready to be absorbed. BTW, his were not natural NDP positions.

And I was blown away when Mulcair only achieved 48% support at the convention - the lowest support of any leader of any political party (federal/provincial) in Canadian history. Shows just how astute his political instincts are. He should have stepped down on election night.

Only two successors jump out:

1. Nathan Cullen - who about a month back made it quite clear to Global's Tom Clark that he is not interested in the job;

2. Megan Leslie - lost her Halifax seat and has also made it clear that she is staying away from politics for another 10 years;

Albeit sometimes persuasion can change minds. Looking at the rest of the potential roster - basically 2nd and 3rd stringers.

And they will all now have the Leap Manifesto baggage to carry forward.
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  #37  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 4:41 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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Originally Posted by *Stardust* View Post
Maybe the 10-15% of the electorate that are pure socialist should start a new party of their own. (Perhaps a Canadian Labour Party?)

The New Democrats should keep aiming for the direction that Jack Layton started.
They missed their once in a generation chance to displace the Liberals as the main party of the center-left, as they did in 1988 with Ed Broadbent.

Jack had the ideal political conditions for a breakthrough: he was a highly seasoned and charismatic leader, there was a political vacuum in Quebec and the Liberals had a dreadful leader in Ignatieff.

Now Justin Trudeau's Liberals own that vote. And Trudeau is governing as a left-Liberal and has done nothing to alienate progressive voters to a significant degree. As long as they stay there - the differences between the two remain small and more voters would leak to the Liberals.

They're better off trying to be a "party of conscience" at this point. I don't think they'd do any better if they stuck with Mulcair and remained an imitation centrist liberal party.
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  #38  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 4:48 AM
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The best place for the NDP IMO is to be the "Bernie Sanders party" or something like Ed Broadbent-style social democracy.

They have a long road to renewal and it's delusional to think they can dislodge the Liberals and form a government anytime soon.

Last edited by Docere; Apr 11, 2016 at 5:03 AM.
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  #39  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 5:50 AM
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Maybe the 10-15% of the electorate that are pure socialist should start a new party of their own. (Perhaps a Canadian Labour Party?)
That is an enormous exaggeration. True socialists (i.e. old school, traditional, socialize the means of production socialists, i.e. Marxism/Leninism/etc) maybe make up 1% of the electorate. They are a fringe group, and have been at least since the 50's. I have met plenty of self-described "socialists", and once they bothered explaining their positions, only one had views that actually fit the term. The term is misused more often than not. The socialist movement has all but died off in almost every western country, which isn't surprising considering how badly centrally planned socialist economies failed in Eastern Bloc countries.

The 10-15% you are thinking of would be better described as social democrats (social democracies are very different from socialist states). Seeing as the NDP is essentially a social democratic party, they have no reason to form their own party.
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  #40  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2016, 6:21 AM
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True, but I should have emphasized too young. She's 33.
Why is 33 too young?? Niki Ashton has been an MP for 8 years and has already been a candidate for leadership of the NDP. PMJT was first elected as an MP in the same election as she was!

I feel that Niki Ashton will likely be the next leader of the federal NDP. She is the only current MP who would be appealing across the country and who speaks both official languages. (she actually speaks a bunch of languages) Having a younger leader would give the party a new look and take away some of the hype that Trudeau gets. She also represents a rural riding (Churchill—Keewatinook Aski) of Northern Manitoba which has a majority indigenous population. The last three NDP leaders represented very urban ridings.
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