HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForumSkyscraper Posters
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada

View Poll Results: Which of the following cities do you think could join the Big Canadian Cities Ranking
Barrie (ON) 10 7.30%
Kelowna (BC) 38 27.74%
Sudbury (ON) 2 1.46%
Kingston (ON) 9 6.57%
Saguenay (QC) 1 0.73%
Trois Rivieres (QC) 2 1.46%
Guelph (ON) 13 9.49%
Abbotsford-Mission (BC) 8 5.84%
Moncton (NB) 13 9.49%
Brantford (ON) 0 0%
Saint John (NB) 4 2.92%
Peterborough (ON) 1 0.73%
Thunder Bay (ON) 3 2.19%
Lethbridge (AB) 4 2.92%
Nanaimo (BC) 2 1.46%
Kamloops (BC) 1 0.73%
Belleville (ON) 1 0.73%
Chatham-Kent (ON) 1 0.73%
Fredericton (NB) 1 0.73%
Chilliwack (BC) 1 0.73%
Red Deer (AB) 12 8.76%
Cape Breton (NS) 0 0%
Sarnia (ON) 1 0.73%
Drummondville (QC) 2 1.46%
None of the Above (write in your candidate) 7 5.11%
Voters: 137. You may not vote on this poll

Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #41  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 3:53 AM
someone123's Avatar
someone123 someone123 is online now
hähnchenbrüstfiletstüc
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 18,237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
Is that what data shows, though? The fastest urban growth rates in the US are in places like Provo, Utah and Jacksonville, FlorIda and Raleigh, NC. New York and LA and Chicago are barely growing. In Europe, cities like Manchester and Brussels are the big gainers over your Londons and Berlins (not in raw numbers but by growth rate). Canada is really an outlier in that our big cities are also big growers, though even here, we see some smaller places outperforming.
Here are the estimated 2015-2016 growth rates by CMA, sorted from fastest to slowest. The first number is the percentage change year-over-year and the last one is the population in thousands.

If the biggest cities were growing fastest, we'd expect this order to be the same as the order from biggest to smallest city (i.e. Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver ...). But instead the top 5 spots are taken up by smaller Prairie cities.

3.17 Saskatoon (Sask.) 290.7
2.61 Regina (Sask.) 230.9
2.49 Calgary (Alta.) 1353.9
2.46 Edmonton (Alta.) 1282.2
2.16 Winnipeg (Man.) 770.5
1.96 Halifax (N.S.) 410.3
1.93 Toronto (Ont.) 5967.2
1.65 Vancouver (B.C.) 2444.3
1.63 Guelph (Ont.) 149.8
1.60 Ottawa-Gatineau (Ont.-Que.) 1303.1
1.59 Kelowna (B.C.) 188.0
1.49 St. John's (N.L.) 208.8
1.42 Moncton (N.B.) 144.6
1.41 Abbotsford-Mission (B.C.) 178.5
1.39 Oshawa (Ont.) 379.0
1.27 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (Ont.) 502.5
1.26 London (Ont.) 498.1
1.23 Barrie (Ont.) 198.1
1.20 Victoria (B.C.) 358.3
1.18 Kingston (Ont.) 167.0
1.16 Windsor (Ont.) 332.6
1.09 Montreal (Que.) 3980.8
1.08 Sherbrooke (Que.) 209.6
1.06 Hamilton (Ont.) 758.0
1.04 Brantford (Ont.) 141.9
0.74 Quebec (Que.) 790.5
0.73 St. Catharines-Niagara (Ont.) 405.2
0.64 Trois-Rivieres (Que.) 155.2
0.57 Peterborough (Ont.) 123.2
0.39 Saint John (N.B.) 127.8
0.0 Greater Sudbury (Ont.) 166.0
-0.18 Saguenay (Que.) 160.4
-0.24 Thunder Bay (Ont.) 125.2
__________________
flickr
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #42  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 4:41 AM
Loco101's Avatar
Loco101 Loco101 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Timmins, Northern Ontario
Posts: 1,815
Quote:
Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
To get a city that would outperform growth-wise over a long period of time, you'd need a few requirements:

1. Lots of cheap space. For all the trend of increasing density, most people still like the single detached home thing. The cities that have boomed in North America have had the space to sprawl out without barrier (most notably Phoenix, AZ).

2. A youthful demographic. Sort of a positive feedback loop of growth. Cities that are predominantly loaded towards an older demographic have more trouble luring those the young who are willing to try somewhere new. Who wants to move to a retirement village like Elliot Lake, ON?

3. Some sort of employment driver. Preferably one that reflects a well rounded economy that would attract people from all walks of life - not just a particular type of person (either blue or white collar).

By sheer numbers, I'd imagine places like Guelph and Barrie will continue to outperform due to proximity to the Greater Toronto Area. However, cost and space is becoming challenging there.

Places like Sudbury, Thunder Bay and smaller to mid-sized cities in the east will struggle as they are much older than the national average and have had less economic growth in the past few decades.

So, likely this place will be out west. I'm thinking somewhere like Red Deer or Grand Prairie.

But, my dark horse candidate would be Brandon, MB. Why? It has a relatively young population. It has space. Lots of it. Inexpensive space too. It's reasonably close to Winnipeg and Saskatchewan. Manitoba's economy tends to be the well rounded, slow and steady type of growth - not some boomtown based upon one volatile resource, with big swings up and down.
Thunder Bay and Sudbury don't have older populations. They are pretty average when compared to all of Ontario. It's the smaller places (towns) in Northern Ontario that have higher than average age. Even Timmins is pretty much average age-wise for the province. You can't forget the large Indigenous population which has a very young average age helps keep the number lower.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #43  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 5:11 AM
christmas christmas is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 354
Abbotsford is a no-brainer, but I voted for Kelowna. I can see Kingston and Guelph getting bigger as well.

The primary drive for Canadian population growth is immigration and so these cities with decent post-secondary institutions, access to large cities, and their easily accessible immigrant culture, will grow. Nature and culture is a plus too. Kelowna is already seeing quite a residential boom -- considering the size of the city.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #44  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 5:29 AM
Bobert Bobert is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 43
The problem I see with Kelowna, as mentioned previously, is Highway 97. Is there any plans for a bypass or a second major thoroughfare?

It seems as though every time I come through that area the traffic in and around the bridge is slow as molasses
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #45  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 5:36 AM
Pinion's Avatar
Pinion Pinion is offline
Lower Lonsdale YIMBY
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: City of North Vancouver
Posts: 4,562
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobert View Post
The problem I see with Kelowna, as mentioned previously, is Highway 97. Is there any plans for a bypass or a second major thoroughfare?

It seems as though every time I come through that area the traffic in and around the bridge is slow as molasses
Even if there was, it would probably be cancelled under the new NDP-Green leadership. And I say that as an NDP voter.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #46  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 5:42 AM
someone123's Avatar
someone123 someone123 is online now
hähnchenbrüstfiletstüc
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 18,237
This is only tangentially related but Kelowna actually has pretty bad winters. It gets even less sun than Vancouver in the winter months somehow and it is much colder. December averages little over one hour a day of sunshine with a mean of -2.6 and record lows below -30 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelowna#Climate). It is less damp but winter days that are +1 with overcast skies are not particularly appealing.

It looks like it should be a sunbelt city with people flocking there for the weather but that's only the case in the summer months, and most of Canada is pretty nice in the summer. I'm not sure Kelowna would turn into a Phoenix or Atlanta even if it had the land available.
__________________
flickr
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #47  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 5:45 AM
Laceoflight's Avatar
Laceoflight Laceoflight is offline
Montérégien
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Montréal, QC <> Paris, FR
Posts: 808
Quote:
Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
I imagine it will be Red Deer.

But...
Wow ! Let's buy a house in Shawinigan right now! Next to the sea. What a dream.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #48  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 7:11 AM
Jets4Life's Avatar
Jets4Life Jets4Life is offline
SJW Slayer
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: True North
Posts: 1,539
It's too bad we can only vote for one city. I think Kelowna has the best chance of being a true big city. Abbotsford is really just an extension of the greater Vancouver area.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #49  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 7:13 AM
Jets4Life's Avatar
Jets4Life Jets4Life is offline
SJW Slayer
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: True North
Posts: 1,539
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
This is only tangentially related but Kelowna actually has pretty bad winters. It gets even less sun than Vancouver in the winter months somehow and it is much colder. December averages little over one hour a day of sunshine with a mean of -2.6 and record lows below -30 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelowna#Climate). It is less damp but winter days that are +1 with overcast skies are not particularly appealing.
try living in Winnipeg for five years, and say that with a straight face..
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #50  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 12:42 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 431
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #51  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 2:58 PM
jigglysquishy's Avatar
jigglysquishy jigglysquishy is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Saskatchewan
Posts: 1,565
I'm gonna give a shout out to Halifax. Economy is becoming diversified, growth is strong, and it's increasingly becoming a target for immigration.

It's already a big centre, but I hope/expect it'll become one of the big metros in canada.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #52  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 3:16 PM
Xelebes's Avatar
Xelebes Xelebes is online now
Sawmill Billowtoker
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Rockin' in Edmonton
Posts: 12,398
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
Here are the estimated 2015-2016 growth rates by CMA, sorted from fastest to slowest. The first number is the percentage change year-over-year and the last one is the population in thousands.

If the biggest cities were growing fastest, we'd expect this order to be the same as the order from biggest to smallest city (i.e. Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver ...). But instead the top 5 spots are taken up by smaller Prairie cities.

3.17 Saskatoon (Sask.) 290.7
2.61 Regina (Sask.) 230.9
2.49 Calgary (Alta.) 1353.9
2.46 Edmonton (Alta.) 1282.2
2.16 Winnipeg (Man.) 770.5
1.96 Halifax (N.S.) 410.3
1.93 Toronto (Ont.) 5967.2
1.65 Vancouver (B.C.) 2444.3
1.63 Guelph (Ont.) 149.8
1.60 Ottawa-Gatineau (Ont.-Que.) 1303.1
1.59 Kelowna (B.C.) 188.0
1.49 St. John's (N.L.) 208.8
1.42 Moncton (N.B.) 144.6
1.41 Abbotsford-Mission (B.C.) 178.5
1.39 Oshawa (Ont.) 379.0
1.27 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (Ont.) 502.5
1.26 London (Ont.) 498.1
1.23 Barrie (Ont.) 198.1
1.20 Victoria (B.C.) 358.3
1.18 Kingston (Ont.) 167.0
1.16 Windsor (Ont.) 332.6
1.09 Montreal (Que.) 3980.8
1.08 Sherbrooke (Que.) 209.6
1.06 Hamilton (Ont.) 758.0
1.04 Brantford (Ont.) 141.9
0.74 Quebec (Que.) 790.5
0.73 St. Catharines-Niagara (Ont.) 405.2
0.64 Trois-Rivieres (Que.) 155.2
0.57 Peterborough (Ont.) 123.2
0.39 Saint John (N.B.) 127.8
0.0 Greater Sudbury (Ont.) 166.0
-0.18 Saguenay (Que.) 160.4
-0.24 Thunder Bay (Ont.) 125.2
Mean rate: 1.3085%
Assume current year ia sn anomaly and that the next 20 years, all cities will trend toward the nation mean.

The rankings become in 20 years:


1. Toronto 9.4 million
2. Montreal 4.9 million
3. Vancouver 3.6 million
4. Calgary 2.5 million
5. Edmonton 2.4 million
6. Ottawa 1.9 million
7. Winnipeg 1.3 million
8. Hamilton 1.0 million
9. Quebec City 0.9 million
10. Saskatoon 0.7 million
11. Halifax 0.7 million
12. KWC 0.7 million
13. London 0.7 million
14. Oshawa 0.6 million
15. Victoria 0.5 million

Just because I can. Not even saying that this is a good model.
__________________
The Colour Green

Last edited by Xelebes; Jul 5, 2017 at 3:43 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #53  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 4:59 PM
wave46 wave46 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 559
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
Thunder Bay and Sudbury don't have older populations. They are pretty average when compared to all of Ontario. It's the smaller places (towns) in Northern Ontario that have higher than average age. Even Timmins is pretty much average age-wise for the province. You can't forget the large Indigenous population which has a very young average age helps keep the number lower.
*looks at Statscan info*

Well, I'll be darned. I stand corrected.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #54  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 5:10 PM
TorontoDrew's Avatar
TorontoDrew TorontoDrew is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Riverside/Sunshine Coast
Posts: 3,661
It's possible Kelowna shouldn't be on this list now as it most likely hit 200,000 sometime earlier this year.
__________________
I'm insidious! LOL
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #55  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 5:57 PM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is offline
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 13,136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xelebes View Post
Mean rate: 1.3085%
Assume current year ia sn anomaly and that the next 20 years, all cities will trend toward the nation mean.

The rankings become in 20 years:


1. Toronto 9.4 million
2. Montreal 4.9 million
3. Vancouver 3.6 million
4. Calgary 2.5 million
5. Edmonton 2.4 million
6. Ottawa 1.9 million
7. Winnipeg 1.3 million
8. Hamilton 1.0 million
9. Quebec City 0.9 million
10. Saskatoon 0.7 million
11. Halifax 0.7 million
12. KWC 0.7 million
13. London 0.7 million
14. Oshawa 0.6 million
15. Victoria 0.5 million

Just because I can. Not even saying that this is a good model.
And Moncton will be 192,000 in 20 years time extrapolating this growth trend.....
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #56  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 6:35 PM
Xelebes's Avatar
Xelebes Xelebes is online now
Sawmill Billowtoker
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Rockin' in Edmonton
Posts: 12,398
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
And Moncton will be 192,000 in 20 years time extrapolating this growth trend.....
Pretty much. My calculation nets 188,000.
__________________
The Colour Green
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #57  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 6:42 PM
scryer scryer is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 518
I had to give my vote to Kelowna for pretty much all of the reasons that everyone else said.

However Kelowna needs to make a few tweaks before establishing itself as the "capital of the Interior":

1. It needs to increase its revenue and job opportunities. Off the top of my head, I will say that they could exponentially increase their tourism business if they advertised and aggressively marketed a bit more. More tourism will generate more hotel businesses, and then that will generate more people visiting (at least in the summer) spending money at local businesses. This is just off the top of my head though.

2. Kelowna needs to provide better housing options for those who are working. Right now Kelowna is known as one big retirement community. If the retirees are driving up the prices of single home dwellings then maybe its time to build more multi-home dwellings closer to the centre of the city? Be gentle on me because I don't know the solution, I just know a bit about the housing problem in Kelowna.

3. Kelowna needs to become a metro centre for the metro areas in the Okanagan. Kelowna has Vernon in the north (which is approximately 50km away) and West Kelowna (which is just across the bridge). If you wanted to, you could include Penticton which is approximately 62km south of Kelowna. To give you an idea; Vancouver to Surrey is ~46km and Vancouver to Abbotsford is ~71km. IMO, Kelowna should use the same municipal political system as Vancouver uses; being that there is one metro area with multiple mayors.

4. To piggy-back off of my third point, Kelowna needs to improve its transportation infrastructure to better connect each of those areas. Mostly I am talking about improving highways and roads. However improvements to public transportation should be considered however appropriate to the region.

If you were to combine the populations of Kelowna (194,882), West Kelowna (32,655), and Vernon (40,116) you would have a total metro population of 267,653. And if you wanted to include Penticton (33,761) you would have a total population of 301,414. This would be the size of a mid-sized city in Canada with a very spread out metro area.

Just my thoughts though...
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #58  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 6:43 PM
Horus's Avatar
Horus Horus is offline
I ask because I Gatineau
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Aylmer (by way of GTA)
Posts: 766
Some of the places mentioned do have limitations due to geographical (in its broadest sense) factors.

Guelph and KW, for instance, are limited by the supply of available land and also the supply of water. Both cities rely heavily on groundwater which is estimated to be approaching capacity. For land, they'd have to annex farmland from the neighbouring townships. The water solution is quite costly, putting in a pipeline from Lake Erie, something they do not seem too willing to want to do in the short term.

https://www.therecord.com/news-story...a-beyond-2051/

Last edited by Horus; Jul 5, 2017 at 6:55 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #59  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 11:06 PM
harls's Avatar
harls harls is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Aylmer, Québec
Posts: 16,347
I'm gonna go all in on Churchill.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #60  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2017, 11:19 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 431
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xelebes View Post
Mean rate: 1.3085%
Assume current year ia sn anomaly and that the next 20 years, all cities will trend toward the nation mean.

The rankings become in 20 years:


1. Toronto 9.4 million
2. Montreal 4.9 million
3. Vancouver 3.6 million
4. Calgary 2.5 million
5. Edmonton 2.4 million
6. Ottawa 1.9 million
7. Winnipeg 1.3 million
8. Hamilton 1.0 million
9. Quebec City 0.9 million
10. Saskatoon 0.7 million
11. Halifax 0.7 million
12. KWC 0.7 million
13. London 0.7 million
14. Oshawa 0.6 million
15. Victoria 0.5 million

Just because I can. Not even saying that this is a good model.
20 years might be a bit of a stretch for projections but I'm sure if you extrapolated the current growth rates, it might not be that far off for the 2021 census.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 10:00 PM.

     

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.