Queen's Park Politics

[waterloowarrior]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

The truth among Ontario's debt: Nowhere else on the planet does a sub-national entity have as much debt as Ontario. Even per capita, it is one of the highest.

Ontario is one of the developed world's largest subnational entities in one of the most decentralized countries in the world. Provinces in Canada have higher spending because they have powers and programs usually administered by national governments. Ontario's budget is $130 billion for 14 million people. North-Rhine-Westphalia has a $90 billion budget for 18 million people. Florida has 19 million with a budget of $77 billion.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by waterloowarrior

Ontario is one of the developed world's largest subnational entities in one of the most decentralized countries in the world. Provinces in Canada have higher spending because they have powers and programs usually administered by national governments. Ontario's budget is $130 billion for 14 million people. North-Rhine-Westphalia has a $90 billion budget for 18 million people. Florida has 19 million with a budget of $77 billion.

^ YES. All those idiots who go on about Ontario having more debt than California completely ignore the fact that it's not anywhere near apples-to-apples as US states have far less fiscal responsibilities than Canadian provinces. In Canada the provinces collectively spend much more than the federal government does. Also, California's credit position is way worse than Ontario's despite having less debt per GDP, because in the US it's much harder to raise taxes due to ballot-measure limits on taxes and stuff, so creditors have less confidence in the ability of the government to meet necessary amounts of revenue. Whereas Ontario theoretically can never default, as if its faced with a looming payment that it can't make, it can always just jack up taxes in the lead up to that date, as there's no restriction on taxation growth in Canada.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Ontario has more debt than Quebec, and Quebec is on pace to balance the budget in the next 2-3 years. Ontario is in an enormous structural deficit with no end in sight.

Right now Ontario's deficit is higher than every other government - federal and provincial - in Canada, COMBINED. If interest rates increase substantially - and they might, especially if the rest of Canada is very strong - the debt issue becomes the biggest crisis in provincial history.

More debt than Quebec is a useless indicator as Ontario has a much larger economy and a much larger population. A millionaire with $100k of debt is nowhere as bad as a middle class person with $100k of debt. The real apples to apples comparison is debt per capita & debt per GDP, of which Quebec is still way worse than Ontario. Ontario would have to retain the current deficit for 7 years to top Quebec, which isn't going to happen under the Liberal watch, as Wynne's plans are all the kind of things that require a huge increase to operating budget now but very little in the future years, meaning deficit has nowhere to go but down, it's just a matter of how long balance will take (at the very worst, it will take 7 years to balance).

Now Hudak's plans will likely drive us into an even bigger hole with no hope of balance until 2025 at the very earliest as his massive cuts agenda would cause a huge economic drop which would severely erode the tax base--plus he plans massive tax cuts that would do the same! It's been calculated that Hudak's platform would actually drive unemployment up to 11% in 2016. (Whereas currently it's at about 7%).

It's been proven time and time again, that the neoliberal trickle-down and austerity bulls**t DO NOT grow the economy. They create 'fake growth'--where the wealthiest 1%-2% get richer but everyone else stagnates or drops.

[eternallyme]

I am NOT advocating for tax cuts right now. Those will not help either.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

2 might not yield any revenue gain. The province makes a fortune off the LCBO right now (I think it's something like $2B a year). But it should definitely be looked at to see if it will.

Another potential big money saver is abolishing the Catholic school system, but that, like raising the PST, is a political non-starter.

I'm thinking something along the Québec model: hard liquor (like la SAQ, or in Ontario's case, LCBO) would stay under provincial jurisdiction.

It's the right to sell beer that I would put up for sale.

Of course, the Beer Store is privately owned (just found out about this) by Molson (49%), Labatt (49%) and Sleeman (2%), so I'm no longer quite sure how it could be done.

[vid]

Just make it legal for beer to be sold in corner stores. Case closed. We trust them with cigarettes, why is beer so much worse?

[Innsertnamehere]

while the revenue from the LCBO is too great to give up, dropping the beer store and allowing corner stores and groceries to sell the same items (beer) would be ideal. Its just not that high of a priority for me personally.

[vid]

I don't even drink beer, I just hate the idea of corporate monopolies over anything.

[Kitchissippi]

After watching the documentary "Inequality For All", I've come to believe that Ontario has caught this American disease. Corporate profits are at an all time high, yet governments are reluctant to raise corporate taxes because money ends up fleeing to jurisdictions with lower taxation if they do. There is huge wealth in Ontario (probably more than ever before), but it's benefitting less people. Yet we're starting to buy into the tea party-esque sentiment that social programs and over taxation are the source of our ills while corporations that have reaped the benefits of operating within a stable, healthy and educated society aren't giving enough back.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

I am NOT advocating for tax cuts right now. Those will not help either.

I have to ask, if you're not advocating for a tax cut, are you voting for Tim Hudak? Or are you a Green this year? I can't put my finger on your leanings this election.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by Blitz

Pretty much. To answer your earlier question about feelings toward Wynne, I don't know if anyone actually likes Wynne...but she'll be getting a lot of votes because of the stop-Hudak movements. Cutting 100,000 public service jobs is just stupid, it'll badly impact the southwest while it's likely very few of these "million" jobs that Hudak plans on attracting will set up in this part of the province.

I think when I ask most people that's a similar meme. People know the Liberals are imperfect, but when given the options it becomes a first choice.

I suppose Wynne really hasn't put a new face on the party for most people, she'll have to earn that respect by governing differently. People may be willing to give her a majority government to give her the chance.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

I have to ask, if you're not advocating for a tax cut, are you voting for Tim Hudak? Or are you a Green this year? I can't put my finger on your leanings this election.

I tend to be libertarian/conservative. But I don't support Tim Hudak right now. Right now I think the deficit and jobs are the most critical thing, and tax cuts are not the answer until the budget is balanced (they would be good but not when running up debt). I'm leaning towards spoiling.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

I think when I ask most people that's a similar meme. People know the Liberals are imperfect, but when given the options it becomes a first choice.

I suppose Wynne really hasn't put a new face on the party for most people, she'll have to earn that respect by governing differently. People may be willing to give her a majority government to give her the chance.

The other two parties have tried their damnest to keep her tied to McGuinty, and largely succeded. McGuinty resigned too early, had he resigned later after the gas plants had blown over it may have been easier.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

I tend to be libertarian/conservative. But I don't support Tim Hudak right now. Right now I think the deficit and jobs are the most critical thing, and tax cuts are not the answer until the budget is balanced (they would be good but not when running up debt). I'm leaning towards spoiling.

Spoiling as in voting Green? I've always been curious where conservatives go to vote when they don't vote conservative in the post-progressive era where conservative parties don't have many progressives.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

I think when I ask most people that's a similar meme. People know the Liberals are imperfect, but when given the options it becomes a first choice.

I suppose Wynne really hasn't put a new face on the party for most people, she'll have to earn that respect by governing differently. People may be willing to give her a majority government to give her the chance.

The other two parties have tried their damnest to keep her tied to McGuinty, and largely succeeded. McGuinty resigned too early, had he resigned later after the gas plants had blown over it may have been easier, the way it occurred most of the revelations about the whole situation have happened under Wynnes Premiership.

[eternallyme]

If there is another Liberal minority (most likely IMO), I wonder how the budget would change? Since one party would still have to support it, probably the NDP thanks to their urban caucus if they have enough seats (their GTA membership wanted the budget passed badly, their rural and Northern membership, plus some of the blue-collar Southwestern cities, wanted it defeated due to the Liberal scandals). It will be worth seeing...I can't see the PC's, unless they are decimated, helping out the Liberals.

[Dr Nevergold]

^If the PC's are decimated, then its a Liberal majority.

IMO now is the time for Ontario to show Hudak the door to retirement from politics. He's fought the fight he's wanted to fight, now is his time to go home and work in the private sector he pretends to love so much.

[eternallyme]

My thinking right now:

OLP 46 - PCPO 40 - ONDP 21

Seat changes:

OLP -> PCPO
Brant
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Kitchener Centre
Ottawa-Orleans

OLP -> ONDP
London North Centre
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Windsor West

PCPO -> OLP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Halton
Thornhill

PCPO -> ONDP
(none)

ONDP -> OLP
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Trinity-Spadina

ONDP -> PCPO
Essex
Niagara Falls

[Innsertnamehere]

I don't see London North Centre going NDP, that is a seat for a key Liberal cabinet member. Bramalea will also stay NDP from my thinking. Agreed on Trinity Spadina however.

Etobicoke Lakeshore will likely go Liberal again.

In general I don't see a whole lot of movement from seats, I expect it to stay around even if we are looking at a similar seat count as before, with a couple of swaps going around.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

My thinking right now:

OLP 46 - PCPO 40 - ONDP 21

Seat changes:

OLP -> PCPO
Brant
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Kitchener Centre
Ottawa-Orleans

OLP -> ONDP
London North Centre
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Windsor West

PCPO -> OLP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Halton
Thornhill

PCPO -> ONDP
(none)

ONDP -> OLP
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Trinity-Spadina

ONDP -> PCPO
Essex
Niagara Falls

I live in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell now (I also grew up here) and I personally think it will stay Liberal by an increased margin. They love incumbents here. Also it's a very PS heavy riding, both federal & provincial. Austerity is about the least popular thing you can promise to GPR-ers. Plus, keep in mind that Franco-Ontarians, while they've largely gotten over their fear of the federal Conservatives, are still very chilly towards the Ontario PCs. The attempted Montfort closure is still fresh in people's minds.

Ottawa-Orleans will likely remain Liberal if Hudak continues to insist on no funding for Ottawa LRT expansion. The Liberal promise to extend the LRT to Place D'Orleans will help them greatly if the PCs refuse to reciprocate that promise. Unlike in West Ottawa where the public is not that concerned about LRT (seeing it as a nice to have but not really important), the people in Orleans want it desperately.