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  #2641  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 3:07 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Some potential NDP pickups (vote in 2014):

Kiiwetinoog (new riding) 65.5%
Mushkegowuk-James Bay (new riding) 60.3%
Sudbury 42.2%
Davenport 40.2%
Humber River-Black Creek 39.2%
Beaches-East York 39%
York South-Weston 37.3%
Sarnia-Lambton 35.8%
Chatham-Kent-Leamington 32.7%
Brampton North 31.3%
London North Centre 30%
Thunder Bay-Superior North 29.5%
Kingston and the Islands 29.4%
Brampton Centre (new riding) 29.1%
Durham 28.4%
Thunder Bay-Atikokan 28.1%
Brantford-Brant 27.4%
Kitchener Centre 26.8%
Spadina-Fort York 26.7%
Brampton West 26.1%
Scarborough North 26.1%
Sault Ste. Marie 25.5%
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas 24.9%
Mississauga-Malton 24.4%
University-Rosedale (new riding) 24.3%
Scarborough-Rouge Park (new riding) 23.9%
Scarborough Southwest 23.6%
Brampton South (new riding) 21.9%
Cambridge 21.7%
Scarborough Centre 20.6%
Ottawa Centre 20.5%

Last edited by Docere; May 18, 2018 at 3:33 PM.
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  #2642  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 3:43 PM
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^ Did you recalculate for redistribution? I have yet to see anyone release detailed redistributed results like we had for the last federal election.
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  #2643  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 3:51 PM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
^ Did you recalculate for redistribution? I have yet to see anyone release detailed redistributed results like we had for the last federal election.
No, but somebody else did:

http://electionprediction.org/2018_on/index.php
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  #2644  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 4:15 PM
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From the above list, just three are currently held by the PCs (Sarnia, Chatham and Sault Ste. Marie).
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  #2645  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 6:45 PM
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I'm in almost complete agreement with this opinion piece. It's written in the past tense because, let's face it, the Tories are going to win.

Quote:
Kathleen Wynne was the premier we didn’t deserve

The partisan fog during the election campaign was thick enough to obscure even the plainest facts regarding Wynne’s Ontario. The province boomed under her government, enjoying record high employment, record low unemployment and sharply rising wages — especially for the lowest paid workers. Under Wynne, the province emerged as one of North America’s top magnets for foreign investment, just behind California, with Google leading the parade. The good times rolled on.

And Kathleen Wynne took the blame, her popularity plummeting as the economy soared. Suffice it to say that current public opinion in Ontario will seem just as mysterious in the future as it does today.

She failed because she was too ambitious, she failed because she never resorted to easy deceptions. She failed because she’s a woman, and because she’s gay. She failed because she's Ontarian, at the mercy of Ontarians, and we’re as ugly as anyone.

The future will judge, and what it will say is that we didn’t deserve her.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...t-deserve.html
We're getting swept up in the worldwide populist alt-right tide, just like anywhere else. That's what's depressing about this election. I've always felt a quiet and rather smug sense of superiority about Ontario when it came to our sociopolitical situation, but if Rob Ford cracked that admittedly thin veneer, his brother's ascent has destroyed it.

My only quibble with this piece would be that any anti-gay, anti-woman animus working against Wynne seems fairly muted and probably impossible to ascertain to any quantifiable degree.
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  #2646  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 7:13 PM
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I think homophobic and sexist attitudes have strengthened the resolve of those who already despised her to begin with, but I doubt it really had an impact on lowering her approval rating.

I'm one of those people who is bewildered by her massive unpopularity. I think she's done a good job overall and the economy is doing great.
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  #2647  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 7:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Now that's some interesting stuff.

When accounting for redistribution, there's some interesting facts:
-Patrick Brown's seat went Liberal in 2014.
-Randy Hillier got only 39% of the vote last time in the borders of the redistricted seat he's running in now
-The new Northwestern seat, Kiiwetinoong, only had 5000 votes cast in total in 2014! And those votes were heavily NDP (no surprise).

Ottawa's western and southern suburbs stand out for their huge discrepancy between the 2014 provincial and 2015 federal elections; the Liberals did WAY better in the latter than in the former:
Nepean: 36% for Ontario Liberals in 2014; 52% for Federal Liberals in 2015
Kanata-Carleton: 33% for Ontario Liberals in 2014; 51% for Federal Liberals in 2015
Carleton: 28% for Ontario Liberals in 2014; 44% for Federal Liberals in 2015

In the rest of Ottawa, the 2014 and 2015 results are more in alignment.
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  #2648  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 7:42 PM
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Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South are likely to be Liberal holdouts, just like they were in the 2011 federal election. Ottawa West-Nepean could flip PC however - even though that seat doesn't seem very "Fordian." Ottawa Centre could certainly go NDP - obviously there's a large number of progressive voters that switch between the Liberals and NDP, like in the Toronto ridings of Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale.
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  #2649  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 7:47 PM
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So the NDP is likely to have some representation in Eastern Ontario. In addition to Ottawa Centre, Kingston is very much a possibility. I can see them pulling 10 points off the Liberals and taking the riding. The PCs are too weak to slip up the middle there, I think. OTOH I can also see it being a random Liberal holdout, since the federal Liberals held it in 2011.
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  #2650  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 8:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
The path to an NDP majority in 2018 is challenging, but basically involves:
-A near-sweep of the inner city of Toronto (basically everything other than St. Paul's)
-Some seats in Scarborough and North York but the NDP don't have to dominate here
-Winning most of the seats in Peel Region and holding onto their seats in Hamilton and Niagara (if they do that, they don't have to break into York or Durham which are very challenging regions for them)
-A near-complete sweep of the urban seats of the southwest, along with at least one rural or mixed urban-rural seat (Sarnia-Lambton is the best bet)
-A sweep of the North
-At least 3 seats in the East (Ottawa Centre, Kingston, and either Peterborough or Belleville)

If the election signs are any indication, that one certainly seems possible at the moment, at least. My riding of Davenport will almost surely be flipped to the NDP.
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  #2651  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 9:14 PM
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Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
If the election signs are any indication, that one certainly seems possible at the moment, at least. My riding of Davenport will almost surely be flipped to the NDP.
Davenport is pretty low hanging fruit for the NDP. There are three inner Toronto ridings with a solid NDP vote of about 40% or so (Parkdale High-Park, Davenport and Danforth). Others like Spadina-Fort York and Beaches-East York have a larger share of the electorate that swings between the Liberals and the NDP.
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  #2652  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 9:19 PM
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Thanks Docere for posting that list. I'm pretty sure that all of those ridings are now in play for the NDP.
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  #2653  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 9:23 PM
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New Innovative Research Poll:
https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-con...g-Wave-2-1.pdf

PC - 35%

NDP - 31%

Lib - 27%

Who would be the best Premier:

Horwath - 26%

Ford - 24%

Undecided - 21%

Wynne - 16%
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  #2654  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 9:31 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Liberals trying to save the furniture:

http://warrenkinsella.com/2018/05/op...the-furniture/
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  #2655  
Old Posted May 19, 2018, 2:08 AM
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Originally Posted by rousseau View Post
Under Wynne, the province emerged as one of North America’s top magnets for foreign investment, just behind California, with Google leading the parade. The good times rolled on.
While I'm mostly in agreement with the author, this part is really disingenuous for a reason that should be obvious - when you look at "North America's top magnets for foreign investment", you have to realize 90% of North America is a single country, so the remaining 10% has a huge edge when you're sticking to foreign investment as your metric (most of which almost certainly comes from... the aforementioned 90%). Especially that triangle sandwiched between New York State and the Midwest, for proximity/connection reasons. It's a totally unfair metric, either deliberately designed to make Ontario look disproportionally good, or else the author missed it - in both cases that's not flattering for him.
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  #2656  
Old Posted May 19, 2018, 2:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
So the NDP is likely to have some representation in Eastern Ontario. In addition to Ottawa Centre, Kingston is very much a possibility. I can see them pulling 10 points off the Liberals and taking the riding. The PCs are too weak to slip up the middle there, I think. OTOH I can also see it being a random Liberal holdout, since the federal Liberals held it in 2011.
My brother lives in Ottawa Centre and I was talking to him about the race there. Apparently Joel Harden, the NDP candidate there, is a very hard-left candidate (the sort that would have been part of the Socialist Caucus or The Waffle back in the day), that has generated some controversy with his statements and actions and that is harming his campaign somewhat. He expressed support for Nora Loreto's controversial racial comments about the Humboldt tragedy and in the past he reportedly made a comment at a pro-Palestinian rally suggesting that he's opposed to Israel's right to exist. I wouldn't be surprised if in the coming days either the PCs or Liberals dig this up and use it to smear the NDP in the mainstream media.

What's even more problematic, potentially, is if the NDP form a government, there's a high chance that Ottawa Centre will be the only NDP seat in the entire Ottawa region, meaning that for regional representation reasons Horwath will be more or less forced to give Harden a cabinet portfolio, which could create a serious PR liability for a Horwath government.
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  #2657  
Old Posted May 19, 2018, 2:54 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
My brother lives in Ottawa Centre and I was talking to him about the race there. Apparently Joel Harden, the NDP candidate there, is a very hard-left candidate (the sort that would have been part of the Socialist Caucus or The Waffle back in the day), that has generated some controversy with his statements and actions and that is harming his campaign somewhat. He expressed support for Nora Loreto's controversial racial comments about the Humboldt tragedy and in the past he reportedly made a comment at a pro-Palestinian rally suggesting that he's opposed to Israel's right to exist. I wouldn't be surprised if in the coming days either the PCs or Liberals dig this up and use it to smear the NDP in the mainstream media.

What's even more problematic, potentially, is if the NDP form a government, there's a high chance that Ottawa Centre will be the only NDP seat in the entire Ottawa region, meaning that for regional representation reasons Horwath will be more or less forced to give Harden a cabinet portfolio, which could create a serious PR liability for a Horwath government.
If he's that far out of the mainstream, they wouldn't put him in Cabinet. The NDP is a pretty cautious social demcoratic party seeking more mainstream acceptance.
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  #2658  
Old Posted May 19, 2018, 3:02 AM
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I just noticed the forum ad choosing software is showing me no less than two out of three ads for Vegas-based Wynn Resorts, which I find an amusing fail on the part of this content-analyzing bot. The fact we're discussing Kathleen Wynne does not make us more likely to go to Vegas and stay at the Wynn.

Goes to show the limitations of bots... no human, even a very dumb one, would ever make that mistake.
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  #2659  
Old Posted May 19, 2018, 3:31 AM
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It could be because of the Jets facing the Knights right now, though. There are quite a few Canadians at the hotels in Vegas to attend those games right now, and the Jets are the home team for most of Ontario's landmass.
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  #2660  
Old Posted May 19, 2018, 3:38 AM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
I think homophobic and sexist attitudes have strengthened the resolve of those who already despised her to begin with, but I doubt it really had an impact on lowering her approval rating.

I'm one of those people who is bewildered by her massive unpopularity. I think she's done a good job overall and the economy is doing great.
The economy doesn't matter. What really matters are her government's identity politics and compelled speech laws. That's just a bridge too far for most Ontarians. The Liberals need a more centrist leader instead of a far-left SJW type, someone who governs for average Ontarians instead special interest groups. Otherwise, they will just have centrists plugging their nose, swallowing hard and voting for some bloody awful PC candidate instead.
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