Multiculturalism in Canada

[lio45]

P.S. While at it, would you consider doing us on SSP a favor by detonating your van of TNT at that building instead of any other location? Two birds with one stone

[Acajack]

Lio, the RCMP and CSIS will be knocking on your door in 5-4-3-2-...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Lio, the RCMP and CSIS will be knocking on your door in 5-4-3-2-...

Haha, I figured someone would quickly point this out, but I'm hoping that in their arsenal of state-of-the-art equipment, they also possess a few sarcasm detectors

(It's been a few minutes already, and there's still no SWAT team outside here, I just checked!)

[mistercorporate]

voluptuous and gravity-defying knockers?? Where do I sign up!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Md7OvU5JIcI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc20Y8CERng

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

voluptuous and gravity-defying knockers?? Where do I sign up!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Md7OvU5JIcI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc20Y8CERng

I knew you'd out yourself as human and imperfect like the rest of us eventually.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Some 5% of the entire population of Poland is now living in the UK as a result of freedom of movement within the EU.

That would be an exaggeration... as of 2015, 831,000 Polish-born people live in the UK. The total population of Poland is 38 million. So it's only about 2%.

Furthermore, migration from Poland is slowly considerably as their economy increasingly catches up to the west. Poland's GDP per capita (along with that of other post-communist success stories like the Czech Republic and Slovenia) is now closing in on US$30,000 and will likely overtake that of Italy and Spain within a few years. In fact, a lot of projections indicate that Poland could actually overtake France to become Europe's third largest economy within 20 years.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

That would be an exaggeration... as of 2015, 831,000 Polish-born people live in the UK. The total population of Poland is 38 million. So it's only about 2%.

Furthermore, migration from Poland is slowly considerably as their economy increasingly catches up to the west. Poland's GDP per capita (along with that of other post-communist success stories like the Czech Republic and Slovenia) is now closing in on US$30,000 and will likely overtake that of Italy and Spain within a few years. In fact, a lot of projections indicate that Poland could actually overtake France to become Europe's third largest economy within 20 years.

I'd heard 2 million. 2% is still a lot when you think about it.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

In fact, a lot of projections indicate that Poland could actually overtake France to become Europe's third largest economy within 20 years.

Is there some special reason why Poland would be better off than France in the future? This seems counter-intuitive. France has a larger population and arguably has the better territory (by a large margin) as well.

France GDP growth has been anemic recently, but if you go back more than a few years the trend is more in line with many other developed countries. Poland is growing relatively quickly because it is catching up. As it catches up, I would expect the growth to slow. And if France did fall behind I would expect its growth to increase too unless there were some specific structural reason for the difference.

There are a lot of predictions that are really just linear projections of what's happening right now. The predictions often neglect the constraints on growth or the reasons why one country is doing better than another. If one country is growing simply because it is a low-cost alternative to another, it's never going to end up in the lead.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by someone123

Is there some special reason why Poland would be better off than France in the future? This seems counter-intuitive. France has a larger population and arguably has the better territory (by a large margin) as well.

France GDP growth has been anemic recently, but if you go back more than a few years the trend is more in line with many other developed countries. Poland is growing relatively quickly because it is catching up. As it catches up, I would expect the growth to slow. And if France did fall behind I would expect its growth to increase too unless there were some specific structural reason for the difference.

There are a lot of predictions that are really just linear projections of what's happening right now. The predictions often neglect the constraints on growth or the reasons why one country is doing better than another. If one country is growing simply because it is a low-cost alternative to another, it's never going to end up in the lead.

This is some really murky territory, but from what I've read, France has a lot of pretty serious problems at the moment that could lead to a Japan-like period of extended stagnation for decades to come, allowing for Poland--whose population is not that much smaller--to possibly overtake them.

Poland's impressive GDP growth in the past quarter century (their GDP has grown by at least 3% per year every year since 1992) is definitely catchup though, but there's the question of it will "catch up" to say the level of France or Italy before it plateaus, or if will catch up to the level of Britain or Germany. If it's the latter, Poland's economy will likely be bigger than France's when that happens.

The four "Visegrad Group" countries (the post-communist parts of Central Europe: Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia) have had astonishing GDP growth since the fall of communism and their catch-up has mostly been a "full steam ahead" narrative with few bumps on the road... I sometimes wonder how that dynamic might change politics there. I wouldn't be surprised if the growth of populist right wing movements is very limited there. A big part of the appeal of these movements is nostalgia for the idea of the "good old days" and frustration at plateauing growth rates.. both of which don't exist over there, what with high GDP growth rates and the "old days" being the era of communist dictatorships.

[Acajack]

Poland's population is not anywhere near France's. France has almost 30 million more people: 66M vs. 38M.

Also, France grows by almost 250,000 people a year, whereas Poland tends to lose 30-40,000.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Poland's population is not anywhere near France's. France has almost 30 million more people: 66M vs. 38M.

Also, France grows by almost 250,000 people a year, whereas Poland tends to lose 30-40,000.

Most of what I've read suggests that gap would reverse itself with changing economic fortunes in the "Poland overtaking France" scenario. I agree that it's rather far fetched, but it does show how places like Poland aren't really the "poor men of Europe" like they used to be.

[mistercorporate]

Yeah, Poland is not overtaking France economically or demographically in our lifetimes. That's just silly. 60+ years from now, however, anything's possible. Much of Poland's economic growth is due to massive transfer payments from countries like France to get it up to the standards of other wealthier EU states, to which it is rapidly progressing.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Most of what I've read suggests that gap would reverse itself with changing economic fortunes in the "Poland overtaking France" scenario. I agree that it's rather far fetched, but it does show how places like Poland aren't really the "poor men of Europe" like they used to be.

For France it's a huge stretch - too huge. I do like Poland's prospects, though. And it's true that Spain and Italy are likely within its reach.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

In fact, a lot of projections indicate that Poland could actually overtake France to become Europe's third largest economy within 20 years.

Out of curiosity, how do you figure "third"? Who would be second in that scenario if not France? I could justify either second or fourth (second after Germany and before France, if EU; fourth after Germany, Russia, Britain, and before France, if "Europe").

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by lio45

Out of curiosity, how do you figure "third"? Who would be second in that scenario if not France? I could justify either second or fourth (second after Germany and before France, if EU; fourth after Germany, Russia, Britain, and before France, if "Europe").

"Third" as in:
1) Germany
2) UK
3) France

Using the sociopolitical definition of "Europe" that (geographically incorrectly) excludes Russia. It also works for current EU boundaries, bearing in mind that Brexit hasn't happened yet.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

It also works for current EU boundaries, bearing in mind that Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Yes, but it will have happened by the time Poland passes France.

In fact, I think my compound growth projections have Milton passing Toronto before Poland passes France, but I'd have to double-check.

[BretttheRiderFan]

I'm waiting for the Summer Olympics of 2056 in Okotoks.

[Acajack]

I love it when people I have no connection to do an "Acajack"...

Over the weekend, I heard an interview with the organizers of the black film festivals in Montreal and Toronto. They are also holding one for the first time in Halifax I think.

Anyway, during the interview the situation of the black communities in Canada was discussed, and one person said that in Toronto the black community's cultural situation was "better" than in Montreal as they were more culturally dynamic (as black people anyway) and more cohesively organized amongst themselves.

Another thing that was mentioned was the contrast in the crowds that usually attended the black film festivals in either city.

In Toronto, the audiences are very predominantly black, apparently.

Whereas in Montreal, the organizers said the audiences were 60-70% white.

The explanation that was given was that there are way more black people in Toronto. While it is no doubt true that there are more black people in sheer numbers in Toronto, in percentage terms it's about the same and Montreal may even be higher (9.1% vs. 8.5%).

In any event, it's not really true that Toronto is way more black as a city than Montreal is. They're pretty comparable.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The four "Visegrad Group" countries (the post-communist parts of Central Europe: Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia) have had astonishing GDP growth since the fall of communism and their catch-up has mostly been a "full steam ahead" narrative with few bumps on the road... I sometimes wonder how that dynamic might change politics there. I wouldn't be surprised if the growth of populist right wing movements is very limited there. A big part of the appeal of these movements is nostalgia for the idea of the "good old days" and frustration at plateauing growth rates.. both of which don't exist over there, what with high GDP growth rates and the "old days" being the era of communist dictatorships.

I'm not sure about the other countries you mentioned, but Poland has some pretty firmly entrenched and very significant right wing populist factions. The Law and Justice Party is a major driving force in Polish politics... it's a pretty culturally conservative place.

Poland's economy has certainly grown since the fall of the Iron Curtain, but it's still not that prosperous of a place... there has been a huge exodus over the years of young people to other European countries. It's a bit like Ireland decades ago when it seemed like everyone was leaving.

[ue]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

"Third" as in:
1) Germany
2) UK
3) France

Using the sociopolitical definition of "Europe" that (geographically incorrectly) excludes Russia. It also works for current EU boundaries, bearing in mind that Brexit hasn't happened yet.

I don't know if Russia being excluded is "geographically incorrect", when Europe is in reality quite constructed as far as continents go. Using more natural definitions, it's not really a continent, but more a subcontinent of Eurasia. It's not like Africa or Australia, where it's obvious where the continent starts and ends, and that won't ever change (prior to continents merging millions of years from now).

Sociopolitically, it seems Russia (and to a lesser extent places like Belarus and Ukraine) are kind of ambiguous as to whether they're "really" European. I grew up thinking of Russia (west of the Urals) as European, but some strongly associate it with the "East" (and not just Eastern Europe). Nowadays, I'm kind of indifferent, and haven't heard very strong arguments for it to be considered more Asian than European, but my point is that it isn't safe to just assume that it is incorrect to not label Russia as European.