Amazon HQ2 thread - Page 61

mhays · #**1201** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 6:49 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

'Do hospitals make people age?' How did you arrive to that?

Those already existing places would not do more business if they're already at capacity. The wait times to receive service would just grow longer and the staff would become overworked while the quality of care decreases. You can only squeeze so many doctors in the ER.

Hospitals at capacity require additional hospitals and staff to service the growing demand for those services.

New hospitals generally don't wait for everyone else to hit capacity.

Also capacity is a big gray area. Many things can be done, from extra opening hours for hospital functions to non-hospital organizations expanding their services.

Even if the result is more services sold, you're talking about a very incremental addition -- a fraction of the volume of work at the new hospital. You don't get to count the whole thing as net added activity.

And those additional services come from the same regional buying power...they're (mostly) not new money. If someone is finally dealing with that mole on their nose, they're not spending that money elsewhere.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1202** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 7:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Yes, Illinois has a spending problem, but we're not alone! NY, KS, SC, NV, CT, MA, HI, KY, RI, AK, TX, CO, WA, PA, NJ, and MN are all good company

https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/comp...ding_2018bH0an

It does make me wonder how these states you mention can afford to offer the generous incentives that Amazon desire, without breaking the bank.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1203** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 7:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CIA

Agreed! Some cities will be victims of their own success. I would add NYC and Boston to the list of cities with growing pains.

The only reason why I don't rank Chicago higher is due to their long-term fiscal health of the city and State. Fiscal health is one of the main rating factors and was implied how important it is throughout the RFQ.

This is one of the reasons why people consider Dallas and Atlanta frontrunners, despite being in red states.

Besides the cities/states being very business-friendly, they're amongst the most fiscally well-run cities/states in the country.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1204** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 7:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CIA

10 Shortlist predictions

Philly
Newark
NYC (although they will not be ultimately selected)
Boston
DC
Atlanta
Austin
DFW
Denver
Chicago

A few longshot predictions

San Diego, Des Moines, Houston, Louisiana, Alberta, Tampa-St. Pete, and Montreal

I'm going to disagree somewhat with your list:

My List

1. Atlanta
2. Dallas
3. Philadelphia
4. Chicago
5. Washington D.C.
6. Boston
7. Denver

Dark Horses

Nashville, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Newark

Atlanta3000 · #**1205** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 7:20 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

It does make me wonder how these states you mention can afford to offer the generous incentives that Amazon desire, without breaking the bank.

S-17, generally the incentive package most states are offering are not direct payment to Amazon. They are giving up future tax revenue from Amazon.

Concerning the Healthcare/Hospital multiplier, surely you have to discount the number considering 21% of the Federal budget annually is allocated for this expense. Not to mention what States, companies and individuals pay towards healthcare yearly. I would think $100K high-tech job has a significantly higher multiplier than a $100K healthcare job.

Pedestrian · #**1206** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 7:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays

And those additional services come from the same regional buying power...they're (mostly) not new money. If someone is finally dealing with that mole on their nose, they're not spending that money elsewhere.

Dealing with a mole on the nose in a hospital is a very uneconomic place to deal with it. One problem for the economics of modern hospitals is the rise of "surgicenters" and similar places for minor (and sometimes not so minor) procedures.

Quote:

. . . procedures performed in the ASC (Ambulatory Surgical center) cost Medicare just 53% of the amount paid to HOPDs (Hospital Outpatient Department). For example, Medicare pays hospitals $1,745 for performing an outpatient cataract surgery while paying ASCs only $976 for performing the same surgery . . . .

Private insurance companies tend to save similarly . . . . A review of commercial medical-claims data found that U.S. heath care costs are reduced by more than $38 billion per year due to the availability of ASCs as an alternative, high quality setting for outpatient procedures. More than $5 billion of that cost accrues directly to patients through lower deductible and coinsurance payments.

http://www.ascassociation.org/advanc...enascsandhopds

In general, one way to take the pressure off hospitals is to do a lot more in other places. Besides ACAs there are urgent care centers, (post hospital care) rehabilitation centers and so on.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1207** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 7:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Amazon will likely have a massive impact, yeah. TBH that's why I can't see it going to Dallas, Austin, Atlanta...those places are already having growing pains. Still standing by Chicago & Philadelphia as the two best options.

The problem with Chicago & Philadelphia is the relatively expensive cost of real estate and also the fact that COL will likely skyrocket much faster than in the other cities you list. It's a trade off and will depend on what Amazon's really looking for.

If there's any big city that can absorb Amazon's effects without:

-Further strain being placed on its infrastructure

-COL and the cost of real estate getting out of hand

It's Detroit.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1208** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 7:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

S-17, generally the incentive package most states are offering are not direct payment to Amazon. They are giving up future tax revenue from Amazon.

I get that. But looking at it another way, that's also less money they'll have to pay future debts with. See the situation with the former Rams Stadium in St. Louis as just one of many examples.

Yes, I understand that they're banking on the spinoff investment and growth from Amazon to make up for the generous incentives. But it's still a huge gamble if you don't have a cushion to fall back on. What if Amazon is suddenly broken up by a Sanders administration FTC due to Antitrust violations?

BrownTown · #**1209** Posted **Nov 19, 2017, 7:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

Look at it this way: If Amazon goes to Chicago, it'll be a big boost to Illinois' fiscal health.

Will it though? Studies have shown that greater than 50% of the time the return on incentives for big businesses is negative. So statistically speaking it's more likely to hurt their situation than help it.

jtown,man · #**1210** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 12:33 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Will it though? Studies have shown that greater than 50% of the time the return on incentives for big businesses is negative. So statistically speaking it's more likely to hurt their situation than help it.

How on earth could this 'hurt' Illinois or Chicago fiscally?

iheartthed · #**1211** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 12:55 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Amazon will likely have a massive impact, yeah. TBH that's why I can't see it going to Dallas, Austin, Atlanta...those places are already having growing pains. Still standing by Chicago & Philadelphia as the two best options.

If it's a big Sun Belt city then I would envision Dallas over Atlanta. I just don't see what competitive advantage Atlanta has to overcome its already maxed out road network.

I'll make my short list based on regions:

Canada - Toronto
The Megalopolis - Boston or Philly
Rust Belt - Pittsburgh or Detroit
Sun Belt - Charlotte or Dallas

IMO, it's most likely that HQ2 goes to Canada or the Rust Belt.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1212** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 1:34 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If it's a big Sun Belt city then I would envision Dallas over Atlanta. I just don't see what competitive advantage Atlanta has to overcome its already maxed out road network.

Midtown and Downtown Atlanta (which are the areas that Amazon's younger talent would more than likely choose to live) are very well served by transit, and the city has better airport access via. transit than Dallas (which is what Amazon listed as a preference).

Besides, if Amazon wants to pair their PST HQ with an EST HQ, that automatically eliminates Dallas in favor of Atlanta.

maru2501 · #**1213** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 1:37 AM**

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/am...-side-chicago/

Amazon visits one of the major chicago sites

skyscraperpage17 · #**1214** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 2:11 AM**

Meh. Amazon has probably visited sites in a ton of cities. At face value, it doesn't mean a whole lot.

chicubs111 · #**1215** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 2:14 AM**

^^^^ How can you not consider Chicago the top front runner for the rust belt cities????... The reality is Chicago has produced the best development options for Amazon... The proposals itself should be what is considered the dividing factor when comparing to other cities and outside of the one Philadelphia site Schukel yards i believe its called? there is no other cities produces the same quality proposals like Chicago has

the urban politician · #**1216** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 2:47 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Midtown and Downtown Atlanta (which are the areas that Amazon's younger talent would more than likely choose to live) are very well served by transit, and the city has better airport access via. transit than Dallas (which is what Amazon listed as a preference).

Besides, if Amazon wants to pair their PST HQ with an EST HQ, that automatically eliminates Dallas in favor of Atlanta.

They aren't "talent". They are employees

You Millennials need to get over yourselves. Hate to break it to you, but 99% of you are very average, have no unusual skills, and will probably be middle of the road all of your lives. The previous generations already realize this, actually.

The ATX · #**1217** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 2:53 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by maru2501

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/am...-side-chicago/

Amazon visits one of the major chicago sites

I'd say this puts Chicago on the Dec. 1st short list.

Shawn · #**1218** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 2:54 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician

They aren't "talent". They are employees

You Millennials need to get over yourselves. Hate to break it to you, but 99% of you are very average, have no unusual skills, and will probably be middle of the road all of your lives. The previous generations already realize this, actually.

Man, that word really bothers you, huh?

Hate to tell you this, but know who popularized and normalized "talent"?

Boomer and X'er HR heads, placement firm managers, and Indeed.com. All the Xennial / Millennial management I work with just say "staff" or if we are feeling especially not over ourselves, "team member".

iheartthed · #**1219** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 3:13 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Midtown and Downtown Atlanta (which are the areas that Amazon's younger talent would more than likely choose to live) are very well served by transit, and the city has better airport access via. transit than Dallas (which is what Amazon listed as a preference).

Besides, if Amazon wants to pair their PST HQ with an EST HQ, that automatically eliminates Dallas in favor of Atlanta.

The RFP says nothing about having a train link to the airport. The RFP does, however, ask for information about congestion rankings during peak commuting times.

C. · #**1220** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 3:39 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by The ATX

I'd say this puts Chicago on the Dec. 1st short list.

Yeah...