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  #21  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2018, 1:39 PM
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I moved it to yuri's thread.
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Last edited by dimondpark; Sep 18, 2018 at 2:57 PM.
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  #22  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2018, 2:31 PM
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i moved it to yuri's thread
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Last edited by dimondpark; Sep 18, 2018 at 2:58 PM.
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  #23  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2018, 5:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Reverberation View Post
I wonder how much the Bay Area’s insane housing costs have contributed to the CSA expansion. Altamont Pass is jammed at 5:00am with people pushed out to more or less Stockton commuting to SV or the BART station in Pleasanton to catch the train the rest of the way in. I saw a good story on it where people were waking up at 3:30am to get home by 7:00pm.
By that logic we could add Bos-Wash and San Angeles together.
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  #24  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2018, 6:59 PM
muertecaza muertecaza is offline
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Delineations are annual. But, again, the only major changes come when four-year averages are taken of American Community Survey commuter data.
I'm interested to see the commuter data for Phoenix-Payson when it comes out. I've never known anyone that does that commute--it's a 1-1.5 hour drive through unpopulated mountains between the two cities. Of course, as was mentioned, Payson region probably has max 20,000 people, so it would only take 3000 to meet the 15% commuter number to show the economic ties between the regions.
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  #25  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2018, 9:24 PM
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This is further evidence of flawed modeling. Sibley County is not even remotely suburban or exurban. It is a county of small towns beyond Minneapolis' exurbs. It's inclusion is likely due to commuter connection to exurban fringe towns that are already mistakenly counted as "core" counties. It is mostly farm land. If an MSA includes an area like that then what exactly is it supposed to be a measure of? Certainly not a metro area. Owatanna's inclusion into the Twin Cities CSA is ridiculous. It is a small town an hour and a half away that is in no way part of metro Minneapolis/St Paul, it is more influenced by Austin and Albert Lea.
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  #26  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2018, 2:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chef View Post
This is further evidence of flawed modeling. Sibley County is not even remotely suburban or exurban. It is a county of small towns beyond Minneapolis' exurbs. It's inclusion is likely due to commuter connection to exurban fringe towns that are already mistakenly counted as "core" counties. It is mostly farm land. If an MSA includes an area like that then what exactly is it supposed to be a measure of? Certainly not a metro area. Owatanna's inclusion into the Twin Cities CSA is ridiculous. It is a small town an hour and a half away that is in no way part of metro Minneapolis/St Paul, it is more influenced by Austin and Albert Lea.
chicago's MSA has newton county, IN that sounds a lot like sibley county.

for various reasons i'm somewhat familiar with newton county.

newton county is >95% corn and pig farms. no exaggeration. it's 400 sq. miles with 14,000 people (35 ppsm density), which is straight-up rural by any measure.

there's a smattering of 5 small rural towns, the largest of which, kentland, is home to only 1,700 people. kentland is 80 miles as the crow flies from downtown chicago (a 2-hour drive according to google maps right now).

newton county, IN has no business being included in anything remotely related to the word "metropolitan", but for some asinine reason it's included in chicago's MSA.



it's another good example of how the census bureau's great county mash-up MSA/CSA game is fraught with all kinds of silliness.

i have always preferred the census bureau's urban area designation because it works at the MUCH finer-grained tract level.

it's not perfect either, but it's much better at reflecting the true size and extent of individual human settlements.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Sep 19, 2018 at 3:42 PM.
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  #27  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2018, 2:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reverberation View Post
I wonder how much the Bay Area’s insane housing costs have contributed to the CSA expansion. Altamont Pass is jammed at 5:00am with people pushed out to more or less Stockton commuting to SV or the BART station in Pleasanton to catch the train the rest of the way in. I saw a good story on it where people were waking up at 3:30am to get home by 7:00pm.
This has almost EVERYTHING to do with the housing costs in the Bay Area. Sacramento is, I believe, the only million+ metro in CA to have domestic growth and it's because people are leaving the Bay Area and LA for relatively cheaper Sacramento (it's still pretty affordable by West Coast/big city standards).

Also, in answer to the previous question about regional planning, Sacramento, Stockton, and Modesto were not meant to be a part of SF Metro at all. There was always some connection (roads, trains, etc). But, it's only since 2000 that things have really started becoming more connected (and has gone up and down with the economy). Sacramento already has commuter rail (Amtrak's Capital Corridor) to the Bay Area...with plans to extend it to the Sacramento suburb of Roseville...and Stockton already has it, too (ACE - Altamont Corridor Express). So, they are doing the best they can with a situation that is almost completely out of control.

PLUS, Sacramento (and Stockton to a much lesser extent) is it's own Metro area. The State Capital is there and they are surely nearing 2.5 million on their own. So, the planning in Sacramento is mostly to contend with the people MOVING to Sacramento from the rest of the state, and dealing with the congested roadways as a result of that quick inflow of population, as opposed to regional planning to figure out the major congestion that can happen between Sacramento and the Bay Area. Frankly, it's kind of a mess.
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  #28  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2018, 3:18 PM
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Originally Posted by spoonman View Post
By that logic we could add Bos-Wash and San Angeles together.
Fortunately for those areas, housing while pricey, isnt quite as unattainable for so many locals to a point where commuting 90+ miles each way is the only option they have.

My personal experience has been as follows: In the past 2 years Ive taken Lyft about 10 times per week and about 90% of the drivers I rode with lived in the central valley, most of the administrative staff in our office( Palo Alto) live out there too. My assistant rented in Fremont for years before buying a house in Tracy and she earns over $100K but Fremont's median is over a million. I notice a ton of the nannies, caregivers and home staff around here live out there too.

To a lesser but noticeable extent, I know a few people who live out-of-state but stay here during the work week. My niece works at Oculus. Last year the company gave everyone in her department $75,000 to help find housing. She and her husband bought a big, brand new house in Utah...she crashes on her sister's couch during the week and flies home on weekends. I tell her that's no way to maintain a family, but she wont give up her paycheck, which I understand, but still.
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  #29  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2018, 3:22 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
Fortunately for those areas, housing while pricey, isnt quite as unattainable for so many locals to a point where commuting 90+ miles each way is the only option they have.
Probably true. The NE Corridor, even though largely contiguous sprawl these days, doesn't require the same level of super-commuting, because transit links are better and there are always decent areas with semi-affordable prices in proximity.
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  #30  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2018, 7:57 AM
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NYC's msa fell back below 20 mill again
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  #31  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2018, 12:24 PM
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I don't understand why New York-Bridgeport, San Francisco-San Jose, Los Angeles-San Bernardino, Detroit-Ann Arbor, etc., are counted not only as separated MSAs but also as distinct urban areas.

In fact, I just found browsing on City Population that Cleveland and Lorain are distinct urban areas, splitted by a straight line as both sides are fully urbanized.

Why US Census doesn't correct that?
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  #32  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2018, 5:04 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I don't understand why New York-Bridgeport, San Francisco-San Jose, Los Angeles-San Bernardino, Detroit-Ann Arbor, etc., are counted not only as separated MSAs but also as distinct urban areas.

In fact, I just found browsing on City Population that Cleveland and Lorain are distinct urban areas, splitted by a straight line as both sides are fully urbanized.

Why US Census doesn't correct that?
Commuting patterns.
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  #33  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2018, 5:22 PM
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^^
If they are completely connected by urban sprawl, commute patterns should be dropped right? I don't think 25% of people living in Orange County commute to San Fernando Valley, for instance, and yet they are all part of Los Angeles MSA.

---------------------------------------

About those new definitions, when do you guys think Lancaster MSA will be capture by Philadelphia CSA? It would make it close to break the 8 million barrier.
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  #34  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2018, 5:31 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
^^
If they are completely connected by urban sprawl, commute patterns should be dropped right?
I agree.

My suburb of Atlanta, which is in the same MSA, is the same distance from downtown as Ann Arbor is from downtown Detroit. In fact, I'd say the entire drive on I-94 between Ann Arbor and Detroit is more "urban" than the entire drive on I-85 between my suburb and Atlanta.

Yet, one is a commuter town for Atlanta's airport, while the other has its own significant gravity of employment around a major public research university.
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  #35  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2018, 7:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
^^
If they are completely connected by urban sprawl, commute patterns should be dropped right? I don't think 25% of people living in Orange County commute to San Fernando Valley, for instance, and yet they are all part of Los Angeles MSA.
The San Fernando Valley is Los Angeles and I am pretty certain that a substantial amount of people commute daily between Orange and Los Angeles County and form Los Angeles to Orange County for work.
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  #36  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2018, 7:32 PM
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You didn't understand my point: what I'm saying is, when we are talking about a single urban area (and Los Angeles, OC and Inland Empire form a single one), commute rates should be irrelevant.

We don't need to know how many people commute from OC to San Fernando to know they are the same urban area, the same city. There is no reason whatsoever for Inland Empire to have a different treatment. Ditto for Fairfield County and New York, which are glued together since the 1950's or before.

Places like Silicon Valley and Inland Empire exists only as result of decades of urban growth of San Francisco and Los Angeles.
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  #37  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 8:41 AM
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I hear the Census Bureau is considering changing its criteria concerning the combination of urban areas (UAs and UCs), but that wouldn't take effect until the next Census in any case, and it'd only really affect a few major urban areas. This is currently their (very conservative) standard and rule on combining urban areas:

Quote:
Merge qualifying territory from separately defined 2010 Census urban cores that share territory contained within the boundaries of the same Census 2000 urban area. Merge only occurs if an area is at risk of losing urbanized area or urban status and is preventable by the merge.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/ref..._2010uadif.pdf
The wikipedia article or the list of U.S. urban areas has a list of potential "aggolmerations" at the bottom of the page.
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  #38  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
You didn't understand my point: what I'm saying is, when we are talking about a single urban area (and Los Angeles, OC and Inland Empire form a single one), commute rates should be irrelevant.

We don't need to know how many people commute from OC to San Fernando to know they are the same urban area, the same city. There is no reason whatsoever for Inland Empire to have a different treatment. Ditto for Fairfield County and New York, which are glued together since the 1950's or before.

Places like Silicon Valley and Inland Empire exists only as result of decades of urban growth of San Francisco and Los Angeles.
No, I get your point exactly. Commuting patterns is a flawed way to define MSAs/CSAs.
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  #39  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2018, 11:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
you didn't understand my point: What i'm saying is, when we are talking about a single urban area (and los angeles, oc and inland empire form a single one), commute rates should be irrelevant.

We don't need to know how many people commute from oc to san fernando to know they are the same urban area, the same city. There is no reason whatsoever for inland empire to have a different treatment. Ditto for fairfield county and new york, which are glued together since the 1950's or before.

Places like silicon valley and inland empire exists only as result of decades of urban growth of san francisco and los angeles.
msa =/= csa
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  #40  
Old Posted Oct 19, 2018, 4:21 PM
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I know this may seem to be an odd question but do any of you see New York, Philadelphia or any of the cities in the BosWash corridor becoming a super CSA?
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