Queen's Park Politics

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The NDP did pretty well in the Scarborough by election--a very respectable 3rd with 27% of the vote.

The NDP have a lot of potential. They could, in theory, win the 2018 election by ditching the more radical activists and focusing on a combination of the working class base and moderate progressives who would normally support the Liberals but are disillusioned with their regime fatigue.

Agreed (although they remain very weak in the east and in the middle-class parts of the GTA) since they could combine potentially strong support in the north, southwest (particularly urban, but even rural to some extent) and the working-class GTA.

But they would be given the wrath of the radical Leap Manifesto types (which concentrate in places like downtown Toronto) and would have to win over some PC supporters as well (particularly in the southwest where they tend to be generally conservative - particularly on social issues - but more protectionist) to get a different kind of coalition. The southwest is, for the most part, a dead zone for the Liberals (even Trudeau only managed 2 seats west of Kitchener).

If Brown struggles with social conservatives, maybe the NDP can open up an opportunity in the southwest especially on trade and economic policies. They would have to make enormous sacrifices for that, though, and the base would surely repent such (for example, green energy is highly popular among the NDP base in big cities, but highly unpopular among working class voters down there).

[1overcosc]

Called it... Wynne announces removal of provincial portion of HST from hydro bills. And pretty quickly too... taking effect in three and a half months despite having to go through the legislature and the regulatory system first.

The cost of this in lost tax revenue is estimated at $1 billion. The government says they can still present a balanced budget this spring in spite of that, and given how soon that is, I doubt they're lying.

What this means is that through some combination of the ongoing positive effects of low dollar/low oil and ongoing spending restraint, the government was actually headed towards posting a surplus of at least $1 billion this spring.. and decided to throw that at hydro consumers. Very much an indication of where the Liberals electoral priorities are right now.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Called it... Wynne announces removal of provincial portion of HST from hydro bills. And pretty quickly too... taking effect in three and a half months despite having to go through the legislature and the regulatory system first.

The cost of this in lost tax revenue is estimated at $1 billion. The government says they can still present a balanced budget this spring in spite of that, and given how soon that is, I doubt they're lying.

What this means is that through some combination of the ongoing positive effects of low dollar/low oil and ongoing spending restraint, the government was actually headed towards posting a surplus of at least $1 billion this spring.. and decided to throw that at hydro consumers. Very much an indication of where the Liberals electoral priorities are right now.

Removing the provincial portion of the HST on Hydro is a strategy to implement one of the major planks in the NDP platform. The weird thing is that the ON NDP issued a press release yesterday calling on the Liberals to removed the HST on hydro! Um, it's been announced! Here is the press release and its link: http://www.ontariondp.ca/throne_spee..._good_jobs_ndp


Throne speech does not go far enough to lower hydro costs, improve healthcare and support good jobs: NDP
September 12, 2016

Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said that the throne speech must commit to actions that will make a real difference in people’s lives when it comes to hydro costs, healthcare, and jobs. It’s now clear that the Liberal plan does not go far enough to in any of these key areas.

“We’re at a tipping point in this province. In today’s throne speech New Democrats hoped to see big changes so that the next generation will have more opportunity and a better future.” said Horwath. “Today’s throne speech could have done so much more to give immediate relief to families, to improve the quality of work in this province, to stop the sell-off of Hydro One, and to make sure everyone has health care they can count on. After listening to the Throne Speech, I can tell you New Democrats will keep working for the real action that people need to see.”

HST was added to Ontario residential electricity bills by the Liberals in 2010. Prior to that there was no provincial sales tax on electricity. Today’s speech from the throne indicated the government will introduce a rebate for Hydro instead of removing HST. There was no mention of how long this rebate would remain in place.

“For six years, New Democrats have been calling on the Liberals to take the HST off hydro as just the first step to lower hydro bills. Instead we see a bit of welcome relief, but nobody in Ontario knows how long it will last. Let’s make it easy. My message to the Premier is this: just take the HST off hydro, once and for all. Just get rid of it,” continued Horwath. “By refusing to stop the sell-off of Hydro One, the Liberals have shown that they still aren’t listening. Premier Wynne is still not interested in taking action to control the long-term rise in electricity costs.”

The NDP Leader said that the first step to improving healthcare in Ontario is for the Liberals to stop the cuts in our hospitals and to get wait times and overcrowding under control.

[1overcosc]

Wow. The NDP are completely out to lunch.

The HST removal is being enshrined in legislation and there is no end date for it.

Horwath is using a combination of obsessing over technical distinctions and pure fabrications with that release.. I'm extremely disappointed.

The PC reaction wasn't much better. They've been advocating for exactly this for years and they should be happy that Wynne is doing it. Even Hudak was able to "give credit where credit is due" (his words) to things that Wynne/McGuinty did that he liked.

[eternallyme]

I think all parties are out to lunch here. The focus needs to be on the root cause (the extreme price of distribution and the criminal nature of Hydro One and their bureaucrats) and not tinkering around the edges.

[1overcosc]

^ Alas, that is much harder to address!

Once Hydro One completes its transition to 60% private ownership, hopefully we'll see change in that area.

IIRC, the best approach to Hydro One would have been to abolish it entirely. The local distribution networks should have been sold off to local utilities, while the high voltage grid should have had its ownership transferred to the Ontario Energy Board who would then contract out its operation to the private sector in a P3.

The price of the electricity commodity itself is now under control. The rates for new green energy projects have gone down a lot--most of this year's new wind and solar contracts actually buy power for less than what consumers pay, meaning these new projects will actually reduce prices, not increase them, and the nuclear refurbs have had their schedules drawn out more to save a lot of construction costs. For this reason, the commodity portion of bills probably won't change much in the next decade.. the real focus needs to be on the transmission network now.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

^ Alas, that is much harder to address!

Once Hydro One completes its transition to 60% private ownership, hopefully we'll see change in that area.

IIRC, the best approach to Hydro One would have been to abolish it entirely. The local distribution networks should have been sold off to local utilities, while the high voltage grid should have had its ownership transferred to the Ontario Energy Board who would then contract out its operation to the private sector in a P3.

The price of the electricity commodity itself is now under control. The rates for new green energy projects have gone down a lot--most of this year's new wind and solar contracts actually buy power for less than what consumers pay, meaning these new projects will actually reduce prices, not increase them, and the nuclear refurbs have had their schedules drawn out more to save a lot of construction costs. For this reason, the commodity portion of bills probably won't change much in the next decade.. the real focus needs to be on the transmission network now.

That's how I see it too. Municipalities should get the first crack (for example, Hydro Ottawa needs to cover its entire boundaries plus any other municipalities that may want to contract to them) and the remainder could be sold to smaller companies.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

That's how I see it too. Municipalities should get the first crack (for example, Hydro Ottawa needs to cover its entire boundaries plus any other municipalities that may want to contract to them) and the remainder could be sold to smaller companies.

What I can't believe is how much of Kingston is still serviced by Hydro One. Anything that wasn't part of the pre-1998 city.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

What I can't believe is how much of Kingston is still serviced by Hydro One. Anything that wasn't part of the pre-1998 city.

Yep. As of the 2011 census, a slight majority of Kingston's urban population is now served by Hydro One. It's the same deal with the natural gas network, too.

Kingston is one of the very few places in Ontario (I believe Kitchener is the only other one) where the natural gas network is municipally owned, instead of being owned by either Enbridge or Union... but the municipally owned gas grid only covers the pre-1998 city, while the suburbs are all part of Union Gas.

Kingston did this really smart thing with its utilities.. it merged them all. The municipal electric utility and the municipal gas provider were amalgamated with the city's water and sewer departments to create a single entity called Utilities Kingston. If you live in the pre-1998 City of Kingston, all of your utilities--water, sewer, gas, hydro--all appear on one bill, with one payment to be made. It's extremely convenient, and it saves a huge amount of admin dollars.

Our gas rates in particular are really low here. I think people in the Utilities Kingston gas grid pay something like 15% less for gas than the rest of Ontario.

[eternallyme]

Now this is interesting. If the Liberals dump Wynne, they would likely win a majority, while they face oblivion with her as Liberal leader. Clearly it is time for Wynne to resign as leader. At the status quo, the PC's lead by 15, but with a new OLP pleader, the Liberals lead by 4.

I'd be curious to see what polls are like with a new PC leader as well.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2956187/on...election-poll/

[1overcosc]

I'm not surprised by the Liberals being in a relatively distant second but I am quite surprised that a new leader would put them ahead. I would have thought, that by this point, the Liberals poor reputation among most of the province would be unfixable by anything other than at least a term out of office.

Mainstreet has a very good track record (I was very much looking forward to them releasing a poll; for months now it's just been Forum and their record is shoddy at best), so I'm willing to believe it.

That said, "Who would you vote for if the Liberals had a different leader" is an odd question to ask. Without knowing what kind of leader the Liberals would pick, how would one know how to answer it?

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I'm not surprised by the Liberals being in a relatively distant second but I am quite surprised that a new leader would put them ahead. I would have thought, that by this point, the Liberals poor reputation among most of the province would be unfixable by anything other than at least a term out of office.

It does help that the opposition has poor ratings as well. The problem is who would be the Liberal leader that can get them out? Most likely he or she would have to come from outside caucus, and I'm not sure if there is a federal MP that wants to jump over a year into a majority mandate there. Maybe someone in municipal politics? (Most municipal politicians at least in the GTA are Liberals)

[1overcosc]

One of the main reasons why there hasn't really been any pressure on Wynne to resign is because much of the base of the party likes her a lot, even though the rest of the province doesn't. (Stephen Harper ran for re-election instead of resigning for similar reasons even though resignation would probably have been the best choice for his party).

If her resigning is going to happen, it would have to her deciding to take one for the team. Given her age (she'll be 65 by the election) she could easily just use it as an excuse to retire.

[eternallyme]

Right now, I think the stars are lining up for Premier Andrea Horwath in 2018. The Liberals are deeply unpopular with Wynne, while the PC's are watching their base disintegrate over internal warfare. The NDP might be able to gain support from both camps.

Their keys:

1) Steer clear of any Leap Manifesto activists. There are a lot more seats elsewhere than just in downtown Toronto.

2) Talk in language like Bernie Sanders did in, say, Michigan or Wisconsin, where he upset Clinton in primaries. That will bring the working class onside with tactics that hate both the corporate powers and the government powers.

3) Attack both the other parties as untrustworthy and tie them together.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Now this is interesting. If the Liberals dump Wynne, they would likely win a majority, while they face oblivion with her as Liberal leader. Clearly it is time for Wynne to resign as leader. At the status quo, the PC's lead by 15, but with a new OLP pleader, the Liberals lead by 4.

I'd be curious to see what polls are like with a new PC leader as well.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2956187/on...election-poll/

I still feel that most voters would consider voting Liberal even with Wynne as party leader. The PCs still have no clear platform and nobody knows where they along with their leader Patrick Brown stand on pretty much anything. They will need to come out with a document like the "Common Sense Revolution" that their party released over a year before the 1995 election. They are pussyfooting too much today. The PCs seem to afraid to stand for anything. The anti-sex-ed and "government get off my land" types are really hurting the party too.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Right now, I think the stars are lining up for Premier Andrea Horwath in 2018. The Liberals are deeply unpopular with Wynne, while the PC's are watching their base disintegrate over internal warfare. The NDP might be able to gain support from both camps.

Their keys:

1) Steer clear of any Leap Manifesto activists. There are a lot more seats elsewhere than just in downtown Toronto.

2) Talk in language like Bernie Sanders did in, say, Michigan or Wisconsin, where he upset Clinton in primaries. That will bring the working class onside with tactics that hate both the corporate powers and the government powers.

3) Attack both the other parties as untrustworthy and tie them together.

Agreed. The NDP have a path to victory if they try.

Another factor in the NDP's favour is that a moderated PC Party will provoke a lot less anti-PC fears among progressives, meaning there will far less pressure on NDP supporters to strategically vote Liberal.

If the NDP manage to bump up their rural support base a bit at PC expense they can leap past the Liberals to second place in the polls; at that point, progressives will see the NDP as the best bet for replacing Wynne, which could then vault them forward to first place.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Right now, I think the stars are lining up for Premier Andrea Horwath in 2018. The Liberals are deeply unpopular with Wynne, while the PC's are watching their base disintegrate over internal warfare. The NDP might be able to gain support from both camps.

Their keys:

1) Steer clear of any Leap Manifesto activists. There are a lot more seats elsewhere than just in downtown Toronto.

2) Talk in language like Bernie Sanders did in, say, Michigan or Wisconsin, where he upset Clinton in primaries. That will bring the working class onside with tactics that hate both the corporate powers and the government powers.

3) Attack both the other parties as untrustworthy and tie them together.

If the unpopularity of the Wynne Liberals continues and remains throughout the next election campaign then I'd say the NDP could win (probably a minority) if the PCs keep acting the way they are now.


If Andrea Horwath steps down as leader then I'm pretty sure the next one would be Jagmeet Singh. Horwath was strong in the 2011 election but really faded in 2014 in my opinion. But doesn't mean she can't do well again.

[eternallyme]

Any NDP winning route, however, has to contend with their own base as well. They really have two bases nowadays - the traditional union blue collar base (which they need) and the Leap Manifesto types (which would make them unelectable everywhere else).

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Any NDP winning route, however, has to contend with their own base as well. They really have two bases nowadays - the traditional union blue collar base (which they need) and the Leap Manifesto types (which would make them unelectable everywhere else).

The union base has a lot more influence (in terms of financial supports and memberships) in the NDP than the hardline socialists. Furthermore, in theory, with the new fundraising reforms coming up, parties should be less reliant on their bases in 2018 than they were in the past.

[eternallyme]

Two by-elections have been called for November 17, in Ottawa-Vanier and Niagara West-Glanbrook. I would consider both of them to be must hold for the incumbent party.

Also Wynne's approval rating now is a pathetic 14%. If she loses Vanier (or even wins narrowly), I think she really has to resign as leader. No excuse to lose in one of the safest seats for your party.