Quote:
Originally Posted by electricron
A little math is in order,
365 / 7 =52.1428571, or if you like 52 x 7 = 364.
So most years, there's just one extra day over 52 weeks in a year, on leap years it's two extra days. At the worse possible arrangement for most years, the new year starts on Saturday or Sunday you'll get one additional weekend day, and on leap years a new year starting on a Friday or Saturday you'll get two additional weekend days. Forget about Holidays, as you get the same number every year, even those celebrated by an individual date that fall on a weekend you will still get a working day off.
So on a typical year, at most one more weekend day in a year - or one less work day off, and if you include the two possible more weekend days for a leap year, two days out of 260 (52 x 5 = 260) is still less than 1%.
Here's the math;
1 / 260 = 0.00384615 x 100 = 0.384615%
2 / 260 = 0.00769231 x 100 = 0.769231%
So any ridership loses or gains over this can't be attributed to more or less weekend dates in a year. It's impossible as the calander exists today.
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This is wrong. There's a consensus that the small national drop in ridership occurred because of holidays and weekends. It happens every couple of years, when there are extra holidays and weekends, like last year.
First, holidays are highly variable. Obviously a weekday holiday has very different ridership figures. Christmas on a Wed. produces very different ridership profiles than Christmas on a Sun.
Second, not all holidays are legal holidays. You need to include all informally recognized holidays, like Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve, Black Friday and the like.
Third, weekends aren't created equal. Saturdays are very different from Sundays. There was an additional Sunday last year, and it makes a difference.
Fourth the timing of major holidays influences the weekly ridership. If Christmas is mid-week, then that week is going to have more affected dates, because people work/travel according to the timing.
What is your supposition for why transit agencies around the U.S. (and Canada, for that matter) have variable annual ridership patterns based on the distribution of weekends and holidays? Just incredible coincidence?