I'll refresh your memory, Mrjauk. You should really go into politics, as selective memory sadly sems to rank high on the list of qualifications. You could also have taken the time to read the first few pages of the thread link in my first comment. It was all right there.
Here’s what I said in Feb 2009:
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Originally Posted by johnjimbc
I project modest declines this year - 15% to 20% - and a more balance market next year (meaning not necessarily any notable increases to value but no further declines either). I believe the housing market will revive as the global economy begins to recover - note the word I used is "revive," not "boom."
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And here’s what you said:
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Originally Posted by mrjauk
As for exact projections, it's hard to tell, but I predict that real prices, by the end of 2010 (given seasonal fluctuations in real estate prices, July is often the peak for the year) will be down 50% from the peak of April 2008. If I'm wrong, I'll send $100 dollars to your favourite charity.
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In an earlier discussion prior to the ones pointed out in my linked thread, I recall you had indicated at least a 50% collapse from the peak, possibly as high as 70%. But when push came to shove, you scaled-back your position to the 50% collapse quoted above.
Now I suspect you’re still rooting for economic disaster for the Vancouver area, which explains your apparent dismay that financial policies were adjusted last year to respond to the global economic situation. It must have hurt you profoundly when interest rates fell. How dare pesky regulators step in to respond to financial instability threatening the local, provincial, federal, and even global economies. I’ll keep your total laissez-faire philosophy assumptions in mind when reading your future predictions.
Your zealotry also explains why my rather lukewarm assessment of the current market is greeted with derision.
I mean, really, referencing a cover of Time magazine depicting a cartoon figure squeezing his house with the headline “Home $weet Home: Why we’re going gaga over real estate.” That’s how you equate my assessment last year of a 15% to 20% fall in prices last year followed by a recovery that would merely parallel the worldwide economic recovery? That’s how you receive my current statement that housing prices had recovered FASTER than I thought they would and my expectation that sales will be relatively FLAT for the remainder of the year? In your looking-glass world, those statements relegate someone as a snake oil salesman preaching the glories of an eternal real estate boom? You must go apoplectic when you meet a true advocate for the philosophy that real estate is the path to wealth.
For the record, I have always believed real estate purchases should essentially be viewed as
one option for people to consider as a place to live . . . and then only if the finances work for the individual or family in question. Anything beyond that is purely speculative, in my mind, be it a tiny vacation cabin or a true investment purchase. I also recognize that people can lose money on their primary homes, though I also see that those losses would be somewhat offset by the amount they would have spent on alternative housing, which is why a home purchase should be included when considering options.
Moreover, I don’t actually like seeing boom and bust periods in real estate. I feel it destabilizes communities. But I’m also a realist, who recognizes some markets are more expensive than others. I have a pretty strong suspicion it’s been that way for a long time, in a variety of societies going back to prehistoric eras. Vancouver is a desirable place to live, and to visit.
You use selective facts as a blunt object to bludgeon any opinion that deviates from your own. You actually seem rather angry about the subject. I can pretty much say that you and a couple of other posters here are the reason I don’t usually have the time or energy to take part in these real estate discussions. The few times I’ve actually offered my opinion, you appear, ready to pounce. It gets old fast.
This little exchange is no different, so I’ll end now with the same words I closed with back in February 2009:
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Originally Posted by johnjimbc
Until then, you can continue to produce diatribes. But I'm done. We've already had this discussion once before. It's as tiresome this time as it was last time.
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Have fun everyone. I need to get back to work.
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Of course I'm kidding, but I would love to see a politician who runs on that platform.
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