Winnipeg Population Growth Estimates

[Only The Lonely..]

In light of the recent announcement of Manitoba's population hitting 1.2 million. I thought it might be fun to look at what kind of future population growth Winnipeg can expect.


In 2007 the city commissioned the Conference Board of Canada to conduct just such a study.

[Only The Lonely..]

Any thoughts on the accuracy of these figures?

What I found interesting is that as the city's population nears the magic 750,000 mark interprovincial migration drops steadily.

Can anybody offer an explanation for this?

I for one am sure looking forward to 2013.

[Biff]

I'm not sure who to believe because the new Census Canada information just released has Manitoba currently enjoying a net 4,500 increase in pop vs the Conference Board of Canada projections showing a negative migration until 2030.

[ILYR]

Originally Posted by Biff

I'm not sure who to believe because the new Census Canada information just released has Manitoba currently enjoying a net 4,500 increase in pop vs the Conference Board of Canada projections showing a negative migration until 2030.

I think predicting interprovincial migration is very difficult. You can see from the conference board numbers they are all over the place. What they are most likely associated with is economic upturns and downturns, both in the province and outside. For example the recent boom in Alberta led to the rise in out-migration. The same can be said during the early 90's recession when everyone moved to BC. Last year people left Alberta and moved back to Manitoba and you can see a significant drop. The numbers show by the conference board are likely a projection base on recent economic conditions, which are positive for Manitoba and Winnipeg. Anyway these are just my thoughts and I make no claim as an expert on provincial migration. What I do know is this is a major problem for Winnipeg and Manitoba, in that we are consistently losing people to other provinces, specifically Ontario, BC, and Alberta (of course this can be said for all the other provinces to).

[Spocket]

Yeah, it's virtually impossible to make any prediction beyond the next year or maybe two.
We can look at trends in population growth (or decline as the case may be) but to draw any conclusions we have to know what factors are driving the trends. Given that no province exists in an economic or social vacuum , the factors that will determine population change are impossible to predict. For example, just look at Las Vegas. There is literally nothing there that couldn't exist anywhere else. Despite this, it's probably the fastest growing city in North America. 70 years ago would anybody have bet a dollar that Las Vegas would one day be known the world over, be rich beyond imagination, and rival cities such as Paris as a tourists destination ? Probably not.

[Biff]

^^^ so what you are saying is that Winnipeg has a very good chance of rivaling Paris as a tourist draw in the next century or so.

(...maybe not very, or even good)

[newflyer]

I think its difficult to predict population growth paterns far into the future. There are a great many variables at play.. many of which are not remotely predictible beyond a few years.

Many government departments and private organizations suffer from what is known as "recent bias". Where they take recent trends and project them out indefinatly. Of course this is not accurate. The economic and political environments are not static. The only thing which is predictible, is things will change.. and the ability of a city or region will change along with it.

[newflyer]

Abother thing which is worth noting is while Winnipeg is growing at a good rate .. the Winnipeg Capital Region is actually growing at a slightly faster rate.

The economic growth of the Capital Region is strong. I also think as the the Inland Port takes hold I would expect to see further infrastucture and capital investment in the capitcal region.

This will translate into strong growth for the region in the future.

[Greco Roman]

Here's to Winnipeg's CMA region reaching 1 million by 2035

[JayM]

Originally Posted by Greco Roman

Here's to Winnipeg's CMA region reaching 1 million by 2035

You know that might be a time when alot of the projects get done by

[DowntownWpg]

Originally Posted by newflyer

Abother thing which is worth noting is while Winnipeg is growing at a good rate .. the Winnipeg Capital Region is actually growing at a slightly faster rate.

The economic growth of the Capital Region is strong. I also think as the the Inland Port takes hold I would expect to see further infrastucture and capital investment in the capitcal region.

This will translate into strong growth for the region in the future.

I'm curious, what study or data does this come from? StatCan doing an analysis of Winnipeg's CMA?

I know that this post is from a month ago, but I just noticed it now and am wondering something...

Three questions, if anyone knows:

- Is the Capital Region a defined and agreed upon area? Is there a map illustrating the capital region? I've heard many different interpretations by people as to where it ends. Some think it includes Selkirk, Lockport, etc (which seems too far for me). I would limit it to the RMs that directly touch Winnipeg. Anyway, there is a variety of opinions out there.

- Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the Wpg Capital Region is, as a whole, growing at a slightly faster rate as compared to just the COW (City of Winnipeg, or "Winnipeg Proper")... that would mean that it's areas like East and West St. Paul, Headingly, etc, that are actually growing faster than the COW.

If so then let me say again, I look forward to the day (perhaps in two decades) when amalgamation is forced upon those leeches sucking blood from the COW. I think when the population density of the townships bordering the COW is at least equal to the COW's suburban areas, amalgamation would be appropriate. Of course, a PC government would never do this - the area of the pond where the leeches lurk is PC territory.

- I wonder, is this growth stat in terms of percentage increase by municipalities in the capital region, or total number of people estimated that will move to or be born within? (in other words, while the % increase in neighbouring RMs is greater than COW, in COW the "head count" is growing faster than the RMs - like how Steinbach is one of the fastest growing cities in MB in terms of % increase, but more actual people are moving to COW).

Originally Posted by newflyer

I think its difficult to predict population growth paterns far into the future. There are a great many variables at play.. many of which are not remotely predictible beyond a few years.

Many government departments and private organizations suffer from what is known as "recent bias". Where they take recent trends and project them out indefinatly. Of course this is not accurate. The economic and political environments are not static. The only thing which is predictible, is things will change.. and the ability of a city or region will change along with it.

Exactly! Great summary of the issues behind long-term population projections.

[Spocket]

^They'll probably never achieve very high density. In fact, as far as I know I'm pretty sure there is actually a rule in place that basically restricts the RMs to low density sprawl.

Newflyer is right though about the Capital region growing at a faster rate than the COW. Just google the Waverley West ND Lea study.

[DowntownWpg]

^^^
Thanks! I didn't doubt newflyer, I'm just always interested in reading such studies about population growth. I googled what you said, and came up with this:

http://www.apegm.mb.ca/pdnet/papers/wwest.pdf

Anyway, thanks for directing me.

I also wonder how long that rule restricting population growth will be in place. I wouldn't put it past some of those communities to begin a slippery slope ("we could upgrade our fire department if we allow this one condo to get built"). Wonder if it's provincially mandated, or if it was put in place by the RM's themselves, as a way of preserving what they unjustifiably believe is their elite utopia (that said, perhaps they'll be too nervous to allow the slippery slope to start).

I'm still quite curious as to what the capital region's boundaries are... if there is even consensus on this matter I'd be surprised.


Obama '08!

[newflyer]

Originally Posted by DowntownWpg

I'm curious, what study or data does this come from? StatCan doing an analysis of Winnipeg's CMA?

I know that this post is from a month ago, but I just noticed it now and am wondering something...

Three questions, if anyone knows:

- Is the Capital Region a defined and agreed upon area? Is there a map illustrating the capital region? I've heard many different interpretations by people as to where it ends. Some think it includes Selkirk, Lockport, etc (which seems too far for me). I would limit it to the RMs that directly touch Winnipeg. Anyway, there is a variety of opinions out there.

- Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the Wpg Capital Region is, as a whole, growing at a slightly faster rate as compared to just the COW (City of Winnipeg, or "Winnipeg Proper")... that would mean that it's areas like East and West St. Paul, Headingly, etc, that are actually growing faster than the COW.

If so then let me say again, I look forward to the day (perhaps in two decades) when amalgamation is forced upon those leeches sucking blood from the COW. I think when the population density of the townships bordering the COW is at least equal to the COW's suburban areas, amalgamation would be appropriate. Of course, a PC government would never do this - the area of the pond where the leeches lurk is PC territory.

- I wonder, is this growth stat in terms of percentage increase by municipalities in the capital region, or total number of people estimated that will move to or be born within? (in other words, while the % increase in neighbouring RMs is greater than COW, in COW the "head count" is growing faster than the RMs - like how Steinbach is one of the fastest growing cities in MB in terms of % increase, but more actual people are moving to COW).


Exactly! Great summary of the issues behind long-term population projections.

There are three stats which are often used to discribe Winnipeg's population:

1) Winnipeg Proper
2) Winnipeg Meto (CMA)
3) Winnipeg Capital Region

The nessesity of creating the Capital Region stat is because Selkirk is not considered a suburb of Winnipeg, and thus is not included in the Winnipeg Metro area. Selkirk has enough local industry that it acculy has its own metro area.

If you google "Winnipeg Capital Region" you will see the area it includes. The Province and the included municipalities in the capital region try to coordinate in order to syncronize development patterns, instead of a bunch of single municipalities doing there own thing. It is similar to what most large metro regions do, and creates efficiencies for all municipalities involved.

To suggest that Winnipeg will one day amalgamate with its surrounding area is not realistic. Winnipeg is growing in stature and the areas around it will also grow. Its no different than Greater Vancouver .. which includes a long list of municipalities which grew as a result of Vancouver's success. I strongly doubt Vancouver will take over Surrey and Richmond anytime in the future, nor do I even think Vancouver would want this added responsibility. With that said they do have a a joint regional body to coordinate efforts, such as transportation.

[newflyer]

Here is the provincial link, which shows and explains the Winnipeg Capital Region. It includes the RMs of St.Andrews, MacDonald, Cartier, Rockwood and the City of Selkirk, which the Winnipeg CMA does not.


http://www.communityprofiles.mb.ca/m.../winnipeg.html

[newflyer]

This is a page from the recent population and housing study.

The whole map is the Winnipeg Capital Region
Light Green: Winnipeg proper
Dark Green: Rest of Winnipeg CMA
Yellow: Capital region not included in CMA


Source: City of Winnipeg website

http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population_forecast.pdf

[JayM]

do fish get thirsty? lol

[Spocket]

^Weird. I just was at Chapters and ran across a book with that very title that got me thinking. Yeah...do fish get thirsty ?

So uh...so long as we're on that subject though...why are we on this subject ?

[hexrae]

See newflyers post and look immediately below the "Winnipeg CMA" image.

Does anyone have any immigration stats bookmarked, for Manitoba and Winnipeg? (I'll look and see what I can find).

[hexrae]

Answer to my own question:
Immigrate Manitoba Reports