Predict the result of the 2019 federal election

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by vid

Italians. I've found that the older and rounder they are, the larger and golder the cross.

I don’t think anyone cares about someone wearing a gold chain with a cross on it. Even then, none are actually big to the point of being noticeable in the way that a turban is.

Some people will be bothered by a turban on the PM but maybe that’s unfounded and they should think through it. Would his decision-making be adversely affected? No, so there’s no problem.

[vid]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

I don’t think anyone cares about someone wearing a gold chain with a cross on it. Even then, none are actually big to the point of being noticeable in the way that a turban is.

You don't have Italians in Vancouver do you? You know that landlord from Aqua Teen Hunger Force? I've met him. He drives a Cadillac and yes, he says "eyyy".

[Cage]

My predictions for 2019 federal election:

1. Singh loses the bid for Burnaby South.
2. Alberta NDP lose government to UCP.
3. Notley resigns as Alberta NDP Leader
4. Linda Duncan (NDP-MP for Edmonton Strathcona) immediately retires.
5. Notley immediately runs runs in the swiftly called by-election, wins seat.
6. Economy takes a few blows from Trump turfing NAFTA in favour of separate bilaterals between USA-Mexico and USA-Canada.
7. Trudeau has to decide between Autopact or Supply Management.
8. Carbon Tax plan gets shredded as AB-ON-SK-NB join forces to oppose the federal carbon tax, forcing Trudeau to back off.
9. Significant numbers of liberal MPs retire.
10. Liberals delay calling an election until Spring 2020, cite tough NAFTA and international trade talks.
11. Rachel Notley challenges for the Federal NDP leadership and wins.
12. In a tight race, Conservatives win with the slightest majority. NDP picks up seats with Notley at the helm (QB, ON, and BC). Liberal lose big in ON, slight loss in QB and prairies, moderate losses in BC.

The ballot box questions will be:
- Quebec: Supply management and Autopact 3.0
- Ontario: Autopact and poor international trade. Carbon tax
- Prairies: Carbon tax, economy, federalization of transmountain,
- BC: Federalization of Transmountain, but for opposite reasons as prairies.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Cage

My predictions for 2019 federal election:

1. Singh loses the bid for Burnaby South.
2. Alberta NDP lose government to UCP.
3. Notley resigns as Alberta NDP Leader
4. Linda Duncan (NDP-MP for Edmonton Strathcona) immediately retires.
5. Notley immediately runs runs in the swiftly called by-election, wins seat.
6. Economy takes a few blows from Trump turfing NAFTA in favour of separate bilaterals between USA-Mexico and USA-Canada.
7. Trudeau has to decide between Autopact or Supply Management.
8. Carbon Tax plan gets shredded as AB-ON-SK-NB join forces to oppose the federal carbon tax, forcing Trudeau to back off.
9. Significant numbers of liberal MPs retire.
10. Liberals delay calling an election until Spring 2020, cite tough NAFTA and international trade talks.
11. Rachel Notley challenges for the Federal NDP leadership and wins.
12. In a tight race, Conservatives win with the slightest majority. NDP picks up seats with Notley at the helm (QB, ON, and BC). Liberal lose big in ON, slight loss in QB and prairies, moderate losses in BC.

The ballot box questions will be:
- Quebec: Supply management and Autopact 3.0
- Ontario: Autopact and poor international trade. Carbon tax
- Prairies: Carbon tax, economy, federalization of transmountain,
- BC: Federalization of Transmountain, but for opposite reasons as prairies.

I think you mean NAFTA (the Auto Pact died years ago) vs supply management. I have no doubt that any NAFTA agreement will chip away at supply management by increasing U.S. quotas, but I'll be surprised if it is entirely done away with.

Notley as NDP leader is an interesting concept. She's been terrific as Alberta's Premier.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Notley as NDP leader is an interesting concept. She's been terrific as Alberta's Premier.

She certainly would be a far greater threat to JT than Singh is.

Prediction:
- Notley led NDP - Conservative majority (due to left wing vote splitting)
- Singh led NDP - Liberal minority (due to NDP collapse)

[Cage]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I think you mean NAFTA (the Auto Pact died years ago) vs supply management. I have no doubt that any NAFTA agreement will chip away at supply management by increasing U.S. quotas, but I'll be surprised if it is entirely done away with.

Notley as NDP leader is an interesting concept. She's been terrific as Alberta's Premier.

I cut out a lot of history in the name of shortening the story.

The auto section of NAFTA is sourced from the autopact that existed well before the 1989 FTA. The auto provisions were not really touched or adjusted between the Canada-USA section, Mexico had to sign onto the old autopact.

Agreed on Notley as federal NDP leader, changes the whole country's political landscape.

As an O&G accountant (both production and field services) while I don't agree on Notley has been a terrific Premier for Alberta, maybe "good" level. I think the difference is that Notley has been better since Jason Kenney has merged the PC and Wildrose and become UCP premier. Competition tends to bring out the best in outcomes.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

She certainly would be a far greater threat to JT than Singh is.

Prediction:
- Notley led NDP - Conservative majority (due to left wing vote splitting)
- Singh led NDP - Liberal minority (due to NDP collapse)

Notley could never lead the federal NDP. There are too many anti-pipeline types.

I think predictions of Singh's imminent demise are a little premature. The NDP gets no media attention between elections and often (although not necessarily) picks up support during the campaign.

[ssiguy]

I think the Liberals are quietly hoping that Singh wins in Burnaby. It will put any questions of his leadership to rest until after the next election.

The stars really are lining up for a solid Liberal majority. An incompetent NDP leader, Bernier splitting the Eastern Conservative vote, and Ford's PC election victory in Ontario and Ontarians have a flawless record of voting nationally the exact opposite party that is governing at Queen's Park.


This is the stuff Liberals have wet dreams over. They couldn't have planned it better if they tried and must be wondering what they did to so please the Gods.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

.....Ford's PC election victory in Ontario and Ontarians have a flawless record of voting nationally the exact opposite party that is governing at Queen's Park.

For the record, 2003 was the last election where Ontario elected both a Federal and Provincial Liberal government. McGuinty was elected in October 2003 and Martin was elected June 2004. In 2004, Martin won 75 seats in ON after McGuinty won a majority.

Perhaps you can square the circle for me on this point about Ontarians wanting a provincial government that is opposite to federal government? I dont understand why Ontarians would want low taxes and less government in June 2018 only to reverse their decision for October 2019 simply because they want separate representation from the Cons and Libs.

[TorontoDrew]

Liberal minority. After a year or 2 under DoFo in Ontario any gains the PC party may have made will be lost in this province. Expect to see most ridings outside of the 905 to go red or orange.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Notley could never lead the federal NDP. There are too many anti-pipeline types.

I think predictions of Singh's imminent demise are a little premature. The NDP gets no media attention between elections and often (although not necessarily) picks up support during the campaign.

If anybody thinks the Federal Party that brought forth the Leap Manifesto would choose Notley as leader, they're nuts.

I suspect the federal Liberals have looked at where the dairy farmers live and will write off supply management if those were Tory or Bloc ridings anyway.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think predictions of Singh's imminent demise are a little premature. The NDP gets no media attention between elections and often (although not necessarily) picks up support during the campaign.

I think Singh will have a hard time building on the NDP's current support, but there's a fair bit of left-wing dissatisfaction with Trudeau amongst Social Democrat-types and Electoral Reformists which could prevent the NDP from deflating too far.

If the NDP were smart, they'd position themselves as a more substantive left-wing alternative to the Liberals (less virtue signalling, more policy), but Singh seems content to act as a Trudeau-lite instead. On the other hand, this could bode well for the Greens who've traditionally captured a lot of the protest votes, or perhaps people will just stay home on election day. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see record low voter turnout this time around though.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by Cage

For the record, 2003 was the last election where Ontario elected both a Federal and Provincial Liberal government. McGuinty was elected in October 2003 and Martin was elected June 2004. In 2004, Martin won 75 seats in ON after McGuinty won a majority.

Not true. Ontario voted for Trudeau in 2015 after electing Wynne in '14.

Perhaps you can square the circle for me on this point about Ontarians wanting a provincial government that is opposite to federal government? I dont understand why Ontarians would want low taxes and less government in June 2018 only to reverse their decision for October 2019 simply because they want separate representation from the Cons and Libs.

The argument has always been that having federal and provincial governments of different stripes keeps each in check. That does not explain the election of D'ohFo and brethren, which remains utterly perplexing to anyone with two brain cells to rub together. (Wynne's Liberals were not perfect, and made a couple of boneheaded decisions (Hydro One, foremost among them), but did not deserve their obliteration; nor did Wynne, who seems like a genuinely nice person, ever deserve her basement-level personal popularity)

[ssiguy]

There has always been some overlap causing QP & Ottawa to have the same party governing if nothing else just by the simple fact that they have different voting years. Ontarians almost never have the same parties elected in the same time frame. Remember too that if Ford was walking into Nirvana then it might cause problems for the federal Liberals but such is far from being the case. His tax cuts and simoultaneous pledge to balance the books is going to mean MASSIVE cuts to essential services and the inevitable backlash and plunging public support that it will garner and all of this will help Trudeau immensly.


To make things even better for Trudeau {as if he needed even more help} is that a potential worsening of the economy and public federal finances can, somewhat legitimately, be blamed on Trump. Trudeau can state that the precarious economy is due to the trade-war with the US that Trump started and the Tories will have little in the way of a response because the narrative has some validity and the last thing the Tories want to be seen as is defending Trump's policies. All this added to the fact that standing up to the Americans and especially such a bizarre administration in Washington as we currently have always plays well in Canadian politics.


The Liberals couldn't dream up this scenario and yet it has all come to pass and they didn't have to do a damn thing.

[acottawa]

I am not sure the Liberal chicken counting is a wise move.

1. Their poll numbers are not great. Summer polling has been in the 32-38 range. They appear to be headed for a minority.

2. It is unclear whether Bernier will have any impact. This isn't like when Bouchard took a big chunk of the Québec caucus with him. He is a one man party.

3. The policy of talking about immigration all the time has been a failure. Public support for immigration has dropped significantly under the Liberals.

4. In general campaigns are bad for the governing party. They lose the bully pulpit, lose access to the public service and the media starts to give equal time to all of the parties.

5. There are big risks over the next year: an overheated stock market, Crazy McCrazy Face, potential teething problems with pot and the potential for some high-profile border jumping. Even if voters don't fully blame Trudeau, cluster****s rarely help the governing party.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I am not sure the Liberal chicken counting is a wise move.

1. Their poll numbers are not great. Summer polling has been in the 32-38 range. They appear to be headed for a minority.

2. It is unclear whether Bernier will have any impact. This isn't like when Bouchard took a big chunk of the Québec caucus with him. He is a one man party.

3. The policy of talking about immigration all the time has been a failure. Public support for immigration has dropped significantly under the Liberals.

4. In general campaigns are bad for the governing party. They lose the bully pulpit, lose access to the public service and the media starts to give equal time to all of the parties.

5. There are big risks over the next year: an overheated stock market, Crazy McCrazy Face, potential teething problems with pot and the potential for some high-profile border jumping. Even if voters don't fully blame Trudeau, cluster****s rarely help the governing party.

Polls now are irrelevant, election is 14 months away anything can happen.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Polls now are irrelevant, election is 14 months away anything can happen.

I would think anyone who is clicking on the thread for "predict the result of the 2019 federal election" would be aware of that.

[vid]

I predict that the weather in October 2019 will be 7°C and partly cloudy.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by vid

You don't have Italians in Vancouver do you? You know that landlord from Aqua Teen Hunger Force? I've met him. He drives a Cadillac and yes, he says "eyyy".

There a large Italian community in Vancouver (ever been to Commercial Drive or East Van?) and I grew up in the same city you live in.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I suspect the federal Liberals have looked at where the dairy farmers live and will write off supply management if those were Tory or Bloc ridings anyway.

An underlying truth is that most Canadians think dairy prices are ridiculously high in Canada, no matter their political leanings.