Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[Franco401]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

I believe the beginning of the end of New Brunswick started when we lost out on energy east pipeline. The province and my home city of SJ are dying and the feds and provincial gvts don't care. It started with McKenna the bastard had it in for SJ and when St Lawrence opened that drew the dagger.

Nova Scotia won't take us and we would be dirt poorer in USA. Only option might be believe it or not join Quebec when they separate

I really can't figure out what you're getting at here. The misfortunes of NB begin in the 19th Century, not with McKenna. Does "St. Lawrence" refer to the St. Lawrence Seaway? That happened in the 60s, McKenna was elected in 1987.

I understand that NB has had economic hardship for long enough that people complain about everything and blame everybody, but this is just incoherent.

[Ire Narissis]

Originally Posted by Delusio Cogno

Creating New Brunswick was like slicing off northern Manitoba and calling it a province. With poor climate, poor soils, and not much resources but fish and trees the opportunities aren't great to support a large population. However a small population could be quite well off, if resources were fairly shared with workers.

I think a lot could be done by focusing on industries that don't rely on the resources we lack. IT, for instance, and manufacturing - though the latter is a tricky one with most of that being outsourced overseas these days. And the province could be doing a lot more to establish itself as a shipping hub; the work being done at the Port of Saint John is a step in the right direction there. Of course our proximity to Halifax does raise some competitive hurdles considering how much better-equipped its port is at this point...

[Taeolas]

Cash-strapped PCs selling party headquarters in Fredericton

The party is looking to unload the property as it gears up for an election campaign in which it will be allowed to spend up to $1.1 million, money the party doesn't have at the moment.

Tory documents filed with Elections New Brunswick show the party had just $20,260 in cash on hand as of June 30, 2017.

That compares to the $2,018,278 that the governing Liberals had at the same time, almost 100 times more than the PCs.

Liberal filings also indicate their party had no debt.

The PCs, meanwhile, owed $346,626 midway through 2017, including $233,060 from a 2013 loan that relied on the Regent Street office as collateral.

So you can own the HQ for around half a million dollars.

Still, it is on Regent street, and downtown. Getting in and out of the driveway can be a PITA. And who knows how much work it will need inside? Make sure you get a building inspection done.

[ivegotaname]

sorry I was sick and not mentally healthy at the time and it affected my post. I will respond when I am doing better

[ivegotaname]

I don't even know why they're multiple parties in New Brunswick? nobody bloody votes

[Taeolas]

Well, it's that time again. The New Brunswick election is September 24, and the campaigns officially start today, though most have been active for a few days/weeks already.

The link above is an article CBC made with helpful links for voting (when/where/how) and where to get information on the election and on the parties.

[MonctonRad]

I'm predicting Brian Gallant will squeak out another victory, but it will be very close.

Is there any possibility (like in Freddy) that David Coon could get a seat mate for the Green Party? It would be interesting if they held the balance of power.........

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Is there any possibility (like in Freddy) that David Coon could get a seat mate for the Green Party? It would be interesting if they held the balance of power.........

Seems unlikely. The Greens did well in Kent (due to fracking) and Tantramar (due to Mount Allison) in 2014, but I don't think they have enough raw appeal in any other riding to win one. In the craziest scenario the Greens maybe pick up Saint John Harbour if it splits evenly four ways, otherwise I think Coon is on his own again. He's likely done enough to keep his seat.

A more likely scenario is Coon and Austin both getting in, thereby holding the balance of power themselves if combined.

For me eyes are going to be on:

• Moncton Centre to see how much Collins splits the Liberal vote.
• Saint Croix to see if Thompson can win that seat for the PCs.
• Saint John Harbour because it's always a toss-up.
• Fredericton-Grand Lake to see if Austin can get PANB a seat.
• Tracadie-Sheila to see if PCs can win it back.
• Campbellton-Dalhousie & Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele to see how much those Liberal incumbents carried those ridings.

[MonctonRad]

I think there is a very strong likelihood that Chris Collins will win Moncton Centre as an independent.

He has a lot of public support and public sympathy, and there is a perception out there that he was a victim of a coup organized by Gallant and his supporters to free up the riding for Robert McKee to run in his stead.

[JHikka]

It would be very surprising if Collins could win it on his own as an independent. Usually core party votes stay with the party and other parties are not affected. I imagine it goes PC from the splitting between Liberal/Collins, but I could be wrong.

[ivegotaname]

would you all be supportive if new brunswick was to cease to be a province and become one entity with nova scotia? or the other way join state of maine?

[Ire Narissis]

I'm not sure I could see any kind of merger/amalgamation going well considering the unique nature of bilingualism that we have in NB. Though Maine does have its Francophone areas i.e. Madawaska, it's also part of the U.S. and I don't think many Maritimers would voluntarily consent to give up their healthcare and be led by an obstreperous Cheeto, or risk falling under similar leadership again in the future.

[gehrhardt]

Originally Posted by Ire Narissis

I'm not sure I could see any kind of merger/amalgamation going well considering the unique nature of bilingualism that we have in NB. Though Maine does have its Francophone areas i.e. Madawaska, it's also part of the U.S. and I don't think many Maritimers would voluntarily consent to give up their healthcare and be led by an obstreperous Cheeto, or risk falling under similar leadership again in the future.

I agree.

I can't see the other provinces agreeing to official bilingualism, and getting rid of it would be a non-starter in NB.

As for joining the US... This would have VERY little support, especially in the current political climate.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

would you all be supportive if new brunswick was to cease to be a province and become one entity with nova scotia? or the other way join state of maine?

Maybe Nova Scotia should join NB ! Just kidding. I have toyed with both ideas and cant see it ever happening.

A PEI NB amalgamation seems to have potential as PEI is ever becoming more accommodating to it's french population. The fact that NB is the primary route on or off the island also would increase the probability of an NB/pei union over a NS/PEI amalgamation.

This scenario is extremely unlikely but I believe is more grounded in reality. If anything in the future I see more provinces in Canada's future, not fewer.

[JHikka]

Seems like we discuss this topic every once in a while. None of these provinces are going to be merging any time soon.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

I've always thought that N.B., N.S. and P.E.I. should maybe someday merge as a whole maritime province. "Atlantica" anyone? As maritimers we have the highest taxes in the country and not even 2 million people are paying for 3 governments. Maybe we should just be paying for one. I always thought too about the bilingual issue. Perhaps we could just make a bilingual "zone" (old N.B.). And of course ahehm Moncton would be the capital.

[MonctonRad]

The final CBC poll tracker has been released. Here are the results:

LIB - 36.7% (29 seats)
PCP - 29.7% (18 seats)
PAP - 13.0% (1 seat)
GRN - 12.6% (1 seat)
NDP - 7.3% (0 seats)

I think this projection is pretty valid.

- Until recently, NBers have been pretty generous giving an incumbent party a second chance.

- Brian Gallant has been quite profligate in his election promises and NBers have always loved being bribed by their politicians.

- Blaine Higgs has concentrated nearly entirely on Gallant's fiscal track record, and while that is appropriate and valid (since Gallant is a spendthrift), Higgs has not provided a really convincing alternate vision for the province, is not a good campaigner, seems old and stodgy, and his lack of French is a serous impediment.

- Kris Austen may be leading a small third party with a questionable agenda, but he personally is young, articulate and comes across as a genuine and personable individual who can be quite reasonable to deal with. I would not be surprised if he actually wins several seats, but it is more likely that he will win only his own (this time around).

- David Coon ran a relatively uninspired campaign (IMHO) but GRN policies are quite popular with a certain constituency, and I'm personally convinced that they will end up with two seats in the new legislature (not one). Coon will keep his own in Fredericton and I think they will also pick up Memramcook/Tantramar. Sackville is a university town and leftist politics has always had a fair bit of sway locally. In addition, every other party running in this constituency has picked a francophone candidate. The GRN candidate is the only anglophone. Again, there is a lot of local sensitivity here ever since a good part of Memramcook was added to Tantramar after the recent boundary changes. Both anglophones and francophones are unhappy. I think some Sackvillians will vote GRN "just because".

- Jennifer McKenzie for the NDP is uninspiring, and the party has the impediment of having a low profile and no seats in the current legislature. NB is not fertile ground for a left wing party like the NDP. At least the GRN's, while progressive, are not overtly hostile to private enterprise. The GRNs are increasingly going to supplant the NDP in the public consciousness.

My own personal prediction:

LIB - 26 seats
PCP - 20 seats
GRN - 2 seats
PAP - 1 seat

Kris Austen will win his own seat based on his personal popularity. The GRN will win Sackville in addition to their existing seat in Freddy. The LIB will remain strong in greater Moncton and francophone NB. The PCP will hold forth in Saint John and the river valley.

The main wild card that I can see is whether or not Chris Collins can win Moncton East as an independent. It is possible, but I think it is more likely that he will split the LIB vote, allowing for a PCP win.

[C_Boy]

Agreed, I would say your prediction is pretty spot on.

[David_99]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

- Blaine Higgs has concentrated nearly entirely on Gallant's fiscal track record, and while that is appropriate and valid (since Gallant is a spendthrift), Higgs has not provided a really convincing alternate vision for the province...

I have some older co-workers that are convinced that fracking the hell out of the Province is a good thing and all we need to turn things around, create jobs and pay back the debt. A "no brainer", they say.........

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by David_99

I have some older co-workers that are convinced that fracking the hell out of the Province is a good thing and all we need to turn things around, create jobs and pay back the debt. A "no brainer", they say.........

Well, I'm not in favour of a province wide ban on fracking, but at the same time I acknowledge that fracking is not a panacea.

The current prices for natural gas are pretty low, and there really wouldn't be too much in the way of royalty revenues available for the government. That being said, there are jobs to be had and I believe fracking should be allowed in areas of the province where it is popular, like in the Sussex region.

The way around this is to create legislation where the decision to frack or not is decided at a local or municipal level. If Kings County wants fracking but Kent County doesn't, then so be it. This decision can be made by local referenda.