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  #401  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 3:03 AM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaskScraper View Post
Here's a Stats Canada video from the last census explaining how we'll probably reach 40 million by 2031 and with a higher proportion of the population going to be living in the West, particularly with Alberta and BC having above national average growth.
Nice post. It's good to see such strong population growth on the Prairies but it's likely still not enough to counter Toronto because it's growing off such a large base. The Toronto CMA is bigger than all the CMAs on the Prairies (Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Lethbridge) put together.

5,928,040 vs. 4,141,494

It's good for Canada to have its biggest city prospering but it's a negative for Canada to have Toronto so dominant. We'd be much better off having lots of big city options and alternatives to Toronto in every region of the country. Even Vancouver is pint sized next to Toronto. Being a highly de-centralized federation like the US or Germany is preferable to what we have now.
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Last edited by isaidso; Aug 22, 2018 at 4:33 PM.
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  #402  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 3:07 AM
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^^I'm not sure reasoning for any group of CMAs of part of country having to counter Toronto or visa versa

Quote:
Originally Posted by craner View Post
what is the time frame for that cma graph ?
Just last year? Since 2007? Other?
2016/2017

thanks for mentioning, I added it to my main post

Quote:
originally posted by SaskScraper

Here's a Stats Canada video from the last census explaining how we'll probably reach 40 million by 2031 and with a higher proportion of the population going to be living in the West, particularly with Alberta and BC having above national average growth.

Video Link


Alberta's population even with slower economic times this last decade has still maintained one of the fastest population growth rates in the country, and with the value of Oil rebounding in 2018 and in the coming years, Alberta's population growth will be sure to trend even higher.





Five of Canada's top ten fastest growing Census Metro Areas are in The Prairies (essentially all the CMAs in The Prairies),


2016/2017

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...g-a001-eng.htm

Saskatoon and Regina are Canada's current fastest growing CMAs and if Lethbridge and Red Deer were considered CMAs already, It would be Seven of the Top Ten fastest growing CMAs are in The Prairies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ions_in_Canada

.
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  #403  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 3:14 AM
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Re: isaidso,

Meh, I believe that having one dominant city with international clout is in our best interests. To use a military term, concentration of force, so to speak. Just look at how having competing cities of equal size has done to NB, an economic basketcase that has cost Canada's other provinces $45 billion in transfer payments to sustain itself, despite having less than a million people. Thankfully, Canada is heading in that direction. May Toronto's dominance increase each year in perpetuity! (and may it one day become the new national capital, probably not in my lifetime though ).
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  #404  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 4:42 AM
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Originally Posted by mistercorporate View Post
Just look at how having competing cities of equal size has done to NB, an economic basketcase that has cost Canada's other provinces $45 billion in transfer payments to sustain itself, despite having less than a million people.
This seems like a weak argument since Alberta is at the other extreme end of the spectrum equalization-wise yet also has two cities of similar size. Whether or not a province gets equalization has a lot more to do with the natural resource lottery than anything else. Of course, this does not prevent people from the random winner provinces from feeling pride in something they did not create.
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  #405  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 5:31 AM
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The very centralization of power and money in Ontario that apparently is "good for the rest of the country" has itself been very damaging to NB's economy over the course of Canada's history. Honestly, almost every province could claim the same and in each case this would largely be true.

I think it would be entirely possible for Toronto to be a viable Global City with "clout" even if Canada had several other global cities with "clout". If Toronto's (and therefore Canada's?) success depends on no other cities in Canada even approaching it in overall importance, then what does that say about Toronto? Or Canada, for that matter?
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  #406  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 5:38 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
This seems like a weak argument since Alberta is at the other extreme end of the spectrum equalization-wise yet also has two cities of similar size.
His argument also forecasts Germany to be an economic basket case, which it definitely isn't.
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  #407  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 5:43 AM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
His argument also forecasts Germany to be an economic basket case, which it definitely isn't.
Germany isn't a basket case because the structure of the EU's economy and currency dynamics ensures it dominates much of Europe at the expense of countries that depend on tourism more than manufacturing like Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc.
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  #408  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 12:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal View Post
Calgary is very well placed to grab Okotoks first.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...-votes-decide/

1st - Calgary : 91%
2nd - Edmonton : 90%
3rd - Montréal : 84%
4th - Toronto : 83%
5th - Vancouver - 79%
There's definitely nothing to brag about here... My greatest worry is that the Queen's U article cited doesn't even include the sprawl occuring outside the statistical limits of the CMAs, which is often less controlled and even less dense.

In Montreal for example there are many towns growing fast along the Highway 15 corridor, in the north, between St-Jérôme and Ste-Adèle (Ste-Sophie, Prévost, Ste-Anne-des-Lacs, St-Sauveur, Morin Heights, Piedmont, St-Hippolyte, Ste-Adèle, St-Adolphe-d'Howard). All of them have commuting patterns increasingly directed towards Montreal (25 to 45%) and St-Jérôme (20 to 40%), and they are amongst the worst cases of sprawl in the country. If you combine the commuting rates, they're statistically suburbs of the CMA. C'est tentaculaire, it's part of the Montreal growth dynamic, and it's not taken into account. I wouldn't be surprised that Montreal would score way over the reported 84%, if all the sprawl generated by the city was taken into account.

Screen captures of typical developments, north of Montreal :
Sainte-Adèle :


Saint-Hippolyte


Sainte-Sophie


Saint-Sauveur & Morin Heights
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  #409  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 2:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador just released it's new population projections today from now to 2025.

In 2025 the low scenario for the St. John's CMA is 208,951, the medium scenario is 217,010 and the high scenario is 223,805.

http://www.economics.gov.nl.ca/pop-projections.asp
It's interesting to see how accurate (or inaccurate) this old estimate was. The 2017 Stats Can estimate for the St. John's CMA put the population at a little over 219,000, so it's conceivable that by 2025 we will have blown well past the high scenario.

Interesting to see that the 10-year population change has St. John's as the 6th fastest growing CMA in the country, and the fastest growing CMA east of Saskatchewan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal View Post
2036 Projected according to the reference scenario
Toronto (GTA) : 8.368M
Montréal : 5.356M
Vancouver : 3.301M
Calgary : 2.438M
Edmonton : 2.022M
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...n-1_02-eng.htm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
That table showing population projections for 2036 is way off.

They predict a Moncton CMA population of 140,000 in 2036. In fact, the 2016 census put our population at 144,810.

If Moncton continues to grow as it is, in 20 years time (2036) our population should be at least 185,000.
St. John's projection is actually lower than the current population, however Stats Can could be getting cheeky and predicting a huge population drop in the city when all the old folk start dropping like flies (it's possible I guess)
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  #410  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 3:01 PM
Drybrain Drybrain is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post

St. John's projection is actually lower than the current population, however Stats Can could be getting cheeky and predicting a huge population drop in the city when all the old folk start dropping like flies (it's possible I guess)
Its kind of baffling. All of the Atlantic cities have already either exceeded or will very soon exceed the projections StatsCan did only last year.

St. John’s is 12,000 people ahead of 2031 already, Moncton is also 12,000 ahead, and even Saint John, which is a perennial slow/no-growth city, is 7,000 ahead. Only Halifax (oddly, the fastest growing city in the region now) isn’t already ahead of 2031 targets, but if the next three years are anything like the last three, we’ll top it in that time.

I’m curious how these figures are arrived at.
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  #411  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 3:07 PM
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Originally Posted by LeftCoaster View Post
Ya but it's just a matter of time before Metro Montreal includes Okotoks.
I was stunned by how 'suburbany' Montreal was when I first moved there. This is quite surprising for a city that's so well known - and prides it's self - for its urban lifestyle. Montreal is actually more Laval and Riviere des Prairies than le Plateau, Saint Henri or Parc Extension. I think that the vast majority of Canadians (including us Quebecois) are just reluctant urbanites.
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  #412  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 3:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal View Post
Calgary is very well placed to grab Okotoks first.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...-votes-decide/

1st - Calgary : 91%
2nd - Edmonton : 90%
3rd - Montréal : 84%
4th - Toronto : 83%
5th - Vancouver - 79%

I've seen the report this article references before, and IIRC they had a pretty loose definition of "suburb" that was based more on commuting stats than density or built form (or a confluence of all 3).

While they do at least make some distinction between different types of suburban development - from older, transit-oriented urban neighbourhoods to semi-rural exurbs - the problem with the data as presented here in this Globe article, is that they do not. Stuff like this: https://goo.gl/maps/KaTNAWAKLN32, and this: https://goo.gl/maps/vrWs3S94s872, are treated as one and the same.

Likewise, no distinction is being made between "suburban growth" in the form of infill development vs greenfield sprawl. Most of the growth in Toronto and Vancouver (and I imagine elsewhere) for instance, is in the form of multi-family infill - the majority of it is just happening in the suburbs.
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  #413  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 4:37 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Originally Posted by mistercorporate View Post
^^
Re: isaidso,

Meh, I believe that having one dominant city with international clout is in our best interests. To use a military term, concentration of force, so to speak.
You're assuming having many big powerful influential cities means the biggest is less powerful and less influential internationally. That's not a given. I'd rather have a slew of global cities with international clout than just one. Having all your eggs in one basket called Toronto isn't the smartest long term strategy either. If Toronto faltered they'd be nothing else to take up the slack. They'd be no other cities where the unemployed could go seeking work. There'd be no domestic big cities to visit. No potential for NBA or MLB elsewhere in the country. One could go on and on.

Not everyone wants to leave their region and move to Toronto. Concentrating everything in Toronto would hollow out the country. It already does to some degree. The country would eventually splinter with separatist movements sprouting up from coast to coast. The UK model is not one I'd want any country to emulate. There's not much beyond London. They're a far less interesting country only having one city of international consequence. It's London, or London, or London. No thanks.
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Last edited by isaidso; Aug 22, 2018 at 5:21 PM.
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  #414  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 6:37 PM
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One thing I have never understood is why the NWT is always so slow growing. It`s population has been basically stagnant for the last 20 years while Yukon and Nunavut have soared. soon NWT will be the smallest of the Territories.


I can understand the Yukon being a draw due to it`s wild frontier mystic, having the mountains and beauty, and being socially progressive but why NWT over Nunavut? Both have huge Native populations with high birthrates but Yellowknife has a far more benighn climate than Iqaluit and has many more services and character. I don`t get it.
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  #415  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
One thing I have never understood is why the NWT is always so slow growing. It`s population has been basically stagnant for the last 20 years while Yukon and Nunavut have soared. soon NWT will be the smallest of the Territories.


I can understand the Yukon being a draw due to it`s wild frontier mystic, having the mountains and beauty, and being socially progressive but why NWT over Nunavut? Both have huge Native populations with high birthrates but Yellowknife has a far more benighn climate than Iqaluit and has many more services and character. I don`t get it.
I think Yukon is milder climate-wise (Whitehorse has roughly the same winter lows / highs as Winnipeg).
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  #416  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 11:00 PM
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Montréal has the most american type of sprawl in all of Canada. The urban core is about 3.6M, but then you have about 1M people living around the core, with farmland between each exurbs. very low density but growing steadily, now the distance between the farthest suburbs is more than 100 km apart. I think the REM is gonna make things worse, but so be it, at least for people living close to the core, they're gonna enjoy the new system.
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  #417  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 11:36 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
One thing I have never understood is why the NWT is always so slow growing. It`s population has been basically stagnant for the last 20 years while Yukon and Nunavut have soared. soon NWT will be the smallest of the Territories.


I can understand the Yukon being a draw due to it`s wild frontier mystic, having the mountains and beauty, and being socially progressive but why NWT over Nunavut? Both have huge Native populations with high birthrates but Yellowknife has a far more benighn climate than Iqaluit and has many more services and character. I don`t get it.
I've wondered the same thing. You'd expect all 3 to have extremely high population growth.
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  #418  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2018, 11:43 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Originally Posted by Hali87 View Post
The very centralization of power and money in Ontario that apparently is "good for the rest of the country" has itself been very damaging to NB's economy over the course of Canada's history. Honestly, almost every province could claim the same and in each case this would largely be true.

I think it would be entirely possible for Toronto to be a viable Global City with "clout" even if Canada had several other global cities with "clout". If Toronto's (and therefore Canada's?) success depends on no other cities in Canada even approaching it in overall importance, then what does that say about Toronto? Or Canada, for that matter?
Agree with all of this. Canada should aim higher than to only produce one influential global city. I'd consider it a failure if we didn't manage more than 1.

Canada needs Toronto to keep booming but to have a slew of other cities growing even faster. Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, Halifax, Winnipeg, Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa, Saskatoon, etc. all need to grow faster because they've got a lot of catching up to do.
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  #419  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2018, 2:35 AM
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Of all the Territories you would expect the Yukon to be the slowest growing due to having a much smaller Native population than either the NWT or Nunavut.

As far as Yellowknife and Iqaluit {which is were much of the growth it taking place} are concerned, Yellowknife has a much milder and sunnier climate with far less snow. It has far more character and much more in terms of urban emenities. The NWT also has an effective highway system including a connection to Edmonton and Nunuvat has no rural roads at all.
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  #420  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2018, 5:58 AM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
I've wondered the same thing. You'd expect all 3 (territories) to have extremely high population growth.
Why would you expect high population growth in the territories ? (just curious).
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