Predict the result of the 2019 federal election

[Franco401]

Jog my memory: are the Liberals promising electoral reform again?

[Architype]

With the Trudeau government making all these political and PR blunders, we may end up with the Conservatoids again, or some strange balance of power situation, not good IMO.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Bloc: Probably the biggest gainer proportionally. Will sweep former NDP territory
NDP: Probably biggest net loser, also in Quebec.

Remains far from certain what'll happen with all the ridings the NDP is going to lose.

The Bloc has almost disbanded at this point. Half the MPs have left and are forming a new federal party. That's going to lead to even further vote splitting, unless they patch things up (and it's increasingly likely we're past that point).

The recent Chicoutimi by-election is an interesting barometer: traditionally a Bloc riding like most of the province, it was won (narrowly) by the Trudeau Liberals in 2015, then it flipped to the Conservatives in 2018. It's very possible many people here will think we've seen more than enough of JT by now, and vote for something else.

It's Scheer's election to lose. Too bad he's so bland, any good leader would easily send JT to the job of Leader of the Opposition. But instead of that, it's a toss-up, and that's Scheer's fault.

[MonctonRad]

In Atlantic Canada, the Tories have nowhere to go but up.

PEI and NL will remain Liberal fiefdoms where a trained monkey could be easily elected (as long as they were running for the Liberals). The Tories however will make some gains in rural southern and western NB, and possibly in northern mainland NS. The NDP could sneak a seat in its bastion of Halifax.

Prediction - LIB 27, CON 4, NDP 1

Quebec is truly a dogs breakfast and any prediction would be no better than a flip of the coin. There is no question however that the age of Jack is well and truly over and that Jagmeet's turban will ensure that the NDP will be entirely wiped out.

Prediction - LIB 50, CON 18, BLQ 10

What happens in Ontario depends entirely on what Doug and Justin do over the course of the next year. The election will be won or lost in Ontario. I suspect the Tories may do better than the last time.

Prediction - CON 63, LIB 50, NDP 8

The Tories will recover most of the losses to the Liberals from the last election on the Prairies. It will be a near sweep except for a few urban ridings especially in Edmonton and Winnipeg.

Prediction - CON 55, LIB 5, NDP 2

BC will have an interesting distribution of seats. The Tories will of course hold most of the province outside the lower mainland and Vancouver Island. The Liberals and the NDP will split the rest, possibly with a couple of Green seats on Vancouver Island.

Prediction - LIB 16, CON 12, NDP 12, GRN 2

The territories are difficult to predict. I'll give one seat each to the Tories, Liberals and NDP.

Total:

CON 153
LIB 149
NDP 24
BLQ 10
GRN 2

Despite a technical Tory win, the Liberals and rump NDP will quickly form a coalition government. Singh will quickly resign.

[vid]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Despite a technical Tory win, the Liberals and rump NDP will quickly form a coalition government. Singh will quickly resign.

The leader of the party will resign after signing an agreement to share government?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by vid

The leader of the party will resign after signing an agreement to share government?

Let me rephrase. It won't be a formal coalition (which is usually suicide for the junior partner). The NDP will merely agree to support Liberal legislation as long as they agree with it (which means that the Liberals will run legislation by the NDP for their approval before tabling it). Since the coalition will be informal, Jagmeet won't be in cabinet. Since he will have just led the party to their worst defeat in decades, he will be forced to step down.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by vid

The leader of the party will resign after signing an agreement to share government?

We're talking about a party where the second best result in party history gets you booted out for "performing poorly", so, yeah, it's basically guaranteed he gets shown the door after the election, whatever happens.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

In Atlantic Canada, the Tories have nowhere to go but up.

PEI and NL will remain Liberal fiefdoms where a trained monkey could be easily elected (as long as they were running for the Liberals). The Tories however will make some gains in rural southern and western NB, and possibly in northern mainland NS. The NDP could sneak a seat in its bastion of Halifax.

Prediction - LIB 27, CON 4, NDP 1

Quebec is truly a dogs breakfast and any prediction would be no better than a flip of the coin. There is no question however that the age of Jack is well and truly over and that Jagmeet's turban will ensure that the NDP will be entirely wiped out.

Prediction - LIB 50, CON 18, BLQ 10

What happens in Ontario depends entirely on what Doug and Justin do over the course of the next year. The election will be won or lost in Ontario. I suspect the Tories may do better than the last time.

Prediction - CON 63, LIB 50, NDP 8

The Tories will recover most of the losses to the Liberals from the last election on the Prairies. It will be a near sweep except for a few urban ridings especially in Edmonton and Winnipeg.

Prediction - CON 55, LIB 5, NDP 2

BC will have an interesting distribution of seats. The Tories will of course hold most of the province outside the lower mainland and Vancouver Island. The Liberals and the NDP will split the rest, possibly with a couple of Green seats on Vancouver Island.

Prediction - LIB 16, CON 12, NDP 12, GRN 2

The territories are difficult to predict. I'll give one seat each to the Tories, Liberals and NDP.

Total:

CON 153
LIB 149
NDP 24
BLQ 10
GRN 2

Despite a technical Tory win, the Liberals and rump NDP will quickly form a coalition government. Singh will quickly resign.

Extremely unlikely. The NDP would support the Libs on a case by case basis and there'd likely be another election in 2021 (giving the new NDP leader a year of so under her belt).

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

In Atlantic Canada, the Tories have nowhere to go but up.

PEI and NL will remain Liberal fiefdoms where a trained monkey could be easily elected (as long as they were running for the Liberals). The Tories however will make some gains in rural southern and western NB, and possibly in northern mainland NS. The NDP could sneak a seat in its bastion of Halifax.

Prediction - LIB 27, CON 4, NDP 1

Quebec is truly a dogs breakfast and any prediction would be no better than a flip of the coin. There is no question however that the age of Jack is well and truly over and that Jagmeet's turban will ensure that the NDP will be entirely wiped out.

Prediction - LIB 50, CON 18, BLQ 10

What happens in Ontario depends entirely on what Doug and Justin do over the course of the next year. The election will be won or lost in Ontario. I suspect the Tories may do better than the last time.

Prediction - CON 63, LIB 50, NDP 8

The Tories will recover most of the losses to the Liberals from the last election on the Prairies. It will be a near sweep except for a few urban ridings especially in Edmonton and Winnipeg.

Prediction - CON 55, LIB 5, NDP 2

BC will have an interesting distribution of seats. The Tories will of course hold most of the province outside the lower mainland and Vancouver Island. The Liberals and the NDP will split the rest, possibly with a couple of Green seats on Vancouver Island.

Prediction - LIB 16, CON 12, NDP 12, GRN 2

The territories are difficult to predict. I'll give one seat each to the Tories, Liberals and NDP.

Total:

CON 153
LIB 149
NDP 24
BLQ 10
GRN 2

Despite a technical Tory win, the Liberals and rump NDP will quickly form a coalition government. Singh will quickly resign.

And this situation is why Trudeau would finally fulfill his promise for electoral reform

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Extremely unlikely. The NDP would support the Libs on a case by case basis and there'd likely be another election in 2021 (giving the new NDP leader a year of so under her belt).

That's actually what I meant to say. It will not be a formal coalition. The Liberals will try to pass legislation that the NDP find palatable but at some point, likely about two years into the mandate, the NDP (under a new leader) will defeat the Liberals and the government will fall.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by csbvan

And this situation is why Trudeau would finally fulfill his promise for electoral reform

Things would be no different with proportional representation. It would still be a Liberal minority government dependent on NDP support.

The only difference with PR would be that Canada would have perpetual Liberal minorities for time immemorial. The grand Liberal plan for complete hegemony would be complete.

[travis3000]

Liberal majority

25 seats in Atlantic Canada
60 seats in Quebec
70 seats in Ontario
5 seats in Manitoba/Territories
15 seats in BC
0 seats in ALB/SAS

TOTAL: 175

Conservatives will hold official opposition with an increase in seats overall.... 5 seats in Atlantic Canada, 10 seats in Quebec, 45 seats in Ontario, a total sweep in AB and SASK with 45 seats, 10 seats in Manitoba, and 20 seats in BC for a grand total of 135. A good performance, but no government.

NDP will be wiped from the map. Greens may win one in BC.

Remember this post.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Things would be no different with proportional representation. It would still be a Liberal minority government dependent on NDP support.

The only difference with PR would be that Canada would have perpetual Liberal minorities for time immemorial. The grand Liberal plan for complete hegemony would be complete.

I meant that the NDP would force the matter, I expect that they're support would be contingent on it.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Things would be no different with proportional representation. It would still be a Liberal minority government dependent on NDP support.

The only difference with PR would be that Canada would have perpetual Liberal minorities for time immemorial. The grand Liberal plan for complete hegemony would be complete.

Wait, I thought it was ranked ballots that would allegedly ensure Liberal governments for evermore.

[vid]

Ranked ballots were the ones that ensured Liberal government in perpetuity, because they're the centre party relative to the Conservatives and NDP, so they end up as the second choice to both (as well as, often, the Green Party), so all the races where the top candidate is non-liberal and has less than 50% would likely be overtaken by a Liberal by the third round almost every time. Conservatives only really capture 40% of the country so they'll be shut out of the process entirely in much of the country.

Proportional representation governments will always be led by Liberals or Conservatives, and it will depend on the smaller parties supporting them to determine which party ends up government, though I think if we had that, that over time we might see Conservative/Liberal coalitions to prevent NDP/Green control of the balance of power. NDP and Greens support this policy because it gives them more power than PR or FPTP.

[vid]

The Conservatives campaigned on proportional representation back in the mid-2000s, but abandoned it shortly after they won. The Liberals campaigned on "reform" but openly preferred preferential ballot, and gave up after their open houses showed the public preferred proportional representation.

I'd like to see something like Ontario's MMP system, with local ridings electing members based on preferential ballot or STV and regional seats determined by proportional representation. It failed here because the government made it illegal for the organization promoting it to participate in the referendum (thus no one knew what MMP was and voted against it out of ignorance), but there was also a lot of people who were "concerned" about the election of list members.

But consider the nomination of the people who represent us now: they're literally done by paid membership in backrooms. There's no real primary system here like there is in the US.

And that's another option we could go with: a two stage election. If a candidate doesn't win 50%+ of the vote, then the top two face off in a run off election a few weeks later. It would actually be quite interesting to see how the two thirds or so of ridings that end up in runoffs react to the make-up of the elected seats. It's hard to predict which kind of government this would elect because so many of those seats would be Conservative/Liberal races in Ontario which could go either way.

[scryer]

Whoever wants to win has to start pushing a specific international relations agenda as well as an agenda revolving around the economy. No brainer, right?

I think that the next election could swing a lot of ways as I am predicting that it will attract a lot of 'new' (read: millennial) voters this time around. That's just my feeling though.

[Spocket]

I would ideally want the Conservatives or the Liberals to win but I can't stand Trudeau. I still can't believe people voted for that schmuck and his "peoplekind" nonsense. Slight edge to the Liberals as they tend to be very good at running the country economically. I'm guessing we'll see a result that suggest people agree with me "More Liberal, less Trudeau".

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Black Star

For the sake of all that is holy.....No more of that bumbling stumbling babbling thing they call our PM. And that band of incompetent ideological liberal left wing kooks.

As usual, a thoughtful and nuanced contribution to the debate, thanks so much.

[Vixx]

I think it'll either be a Liberal or Conservative minority, too many variables at play between now and election time.

Quebec and Ontario (especially Quebec) will be really interesting, as usual. The NDP will likely be obliterated in Quebec and they'll become a fringe party after 2019.

Not really sure about the Lower Mainland, there's going to be some hotly contested seats there for sure.