Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen
the Carolinas are the least likely to densify meaningfully.
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No city in the Carolinas will ever look like Seattle or DC in the density department, but I expect places like Charlotte and Raleigh, and possibly Durham and Winston-Salem, to reach what most anyone other than an SSP urban purist would consider a happy medium. Charlotte has the very best chance because it has already seen a marked increase in density along its existing light rail line, and there is no reason to think it can't expect the same along its upcoming line(s). Uptown (downtown) is filling in nicely, and as the luster of exurban living continues to wear off, the existing density will perpetuate itself -- within reason. Charlotte also has, sad to say, the benefit of having little historic architecture to get in the way of it, and no compunctions whatsoever about erasing what its got to make way for shiny new contemporary-bland condo blocks.
From what I know of Raleigh, it's in the same situation, except it makes more of an effort to preserve its past. In particular, Raleigh has the benefit of and draw of being the capital to initiate and perpetuate increases in density. It has critical mass, in other words, that's lacking in other North Carolina cities. There is no physical reason for any North Carolina city, with the exceptions of Fayetteville and Wilmington, to be where they are and therefore now no real reason to densify and certainly no barrier to continued sprawl other than sheer economics and demographic trends. Charlotte and Raleigh, due to Charlotte's size and Raleigh's status, have the critical mass to buck the trend. Durham and Winston-Salem are next in line for the potential to see marked increases in density, as both have well-preserved historic stock that already demonstrates urban density and both have major draws -- both are already hubs of education and medicine and both are building up their resources in both areas.
Greensboro, Fayetteville, and High Point are probably least likely to see any real increases in density. Greensboro has some potential, as a hub of education, but with nothing like Charlotte's transit lines to initiate it, it is a massive sprawling mess and is likely to remain such. Then High Point... High Point's raison d'etre of furniture and furniture sales is in jeopardy and it doesn't have enough else to carry it. Fayetteville is too conservative for density, has nothing that even remotely approaches critical mass, and is regarded around the state as your basic pit that no one lives in by choice.
And as for the city's smaller cities, Wilmington and Asheville, that already demonstrate high-quality urbanity? I don't know about Wilmington, but I do know that the push back to the city is already affecting Asheville in spite of our platinum-quality NIMBY-American community. At present there are seven hotels, an apartment building, a condo building, and an office building planned or under construction in our smallish downtown area alone, two rapidly-redeveloping neglected corners of downtown that will surely generate new construction once all the old buildings are rehabbed, and seven condo buildings or apartment complexes under construction in already-developed areas elsewhere in the city beyond downtown. Plus, the push into town is so great that land previously considered unusable due to our terrain is being developed. Infill is happening in pretty much every neighborhood inside the city limits. However, we're small (though growing), and our density is not likely to impress anyone however fast it's occurring or well done it is.