How a ‘reverse Great Migration’ is reshaping U.S. cities

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

I think people who say it’s a good thing are just boosters desperately trying to make a silver lining out of something negative.

Agreed.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by Kenmore

nothing gets white chicagoans more giddy than reverse migration talk

Yes, nothing makes me more giddy than seeing racial and income segregation that has persisted for nearly a century slowly breaking up. You might be trying to frame it as "look at these racists so happy the blacks are all leaving", but in reality you like the status quo and I don't. If you haven't noticed, many of the migrants aren't even leaving the area, they are just moving to places that are less fucked up than there they live now. Do you really think I'm racist for being glad working class black families are getting out of Englewood and into the South suburbs? It literally makes no difference to me whether they live in either of those places, I don't spend a lot of time in the suburbs and I don't typically hang out in Englewood.Do you think I'm racist for rooting for these same families to move to places like Des Moines Iowa or Green Bay Wisconsin, places I spend nearly as much time as Chicago? Places my wife and I and our entire families are from?

Or maybe it's legitimately a matter of the status quo is the absolute worst possible outcome and ANYTHING is better than that? Maybe I know how great places like Green Bay or Appleton or Des Moines or the Quad Cities are. Maybe I know from decades of experience living in these places, even working a decent paying factory job in these places, that people who aren't given a chance at all here in Chicago will have way more opportunity there?

I'm starting to think that you relish watching the crime and breaking of families and poverty on our South and West sides. Perhaps you are afraid that if that well of human suffering dries up your own twisted political adgenda will suffer because you will no longer be able to point to it as evidence that you are right? I'm not sure why you have such a fetish for the ghettoization of whole communities of people rather than cheering for them to take matters into their own hands and improve their lot in life. It's like you want them to continue to suffer so you can say "look how racist America is, look how there is no social mobility" so you can win debates on the internet. You can't stand the notion that it might be possible for a formerly impoverished family to move to Ames Iowa where the unemployment rate is 1.5% and they are virtually guraunteed gainful employment.

Seriously, what's your problem? Why do you love entrenched poverty and segregation so much?

[eschaton]

Really, I think there are two distinct things happening here.

1. The movement of black Americans out of core cities into first ring suburbs (and smaller cities in the same general region) skews more lower income. I say this because middle-class blacks have had the means to move to the suburbs since the last vestiges of informal housing segregation eased in the 1980s. The movement now is in part a response to gentrification (or at least rising housing costs), partly a result of the continual erosion of historically black neighborhoods (both structurally and socially) and in part because many of the first-ring suburbs and smaller cities have cheap housing and relative lack of demand, meaning lots of available affordable units.

2. In contrast, the movement of black people outside of their region of origin -the real "reverse Great Migration" back to the South - is mostly more educated, affluent black people. Basically a mix of college-educated young professionals starting out their career, and black retirees with some money looking to move to warmer climes for much the same reason white retirees do.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Really, I think there are two distinct things happening here.

1. The movement of black Americans out of core cities into first ring suburbs (and smaller cities in the same general region) skews more lower income. I say this because middle-class blacks have had the means to move to the suburbs since the last vestiges of informal housing segregation eased in the 1980s. The movement now is in part a response to gentrification (or at least rising housing costs), partly a result of the continual erosion of historically black neighborhoods (both structurally and socially) and in part because many of the first-ring suburbs and smaller cities have cheap housing and relative lack of demand, meaning lots of available affordable units.

2. In contrast, the movement of black people outside of their region of origin -the real "reverse Great Migration" back to the South - is mostly more educated, affluent black people. Basically a mix of college-educated young professionals starting out their career, and black retirees with some money looking to move to warmer climes for much the same reason white retirees do.

The second is a good point... I wonder how many people are "retiring" (and in that case, the reason the demographics skew black is that white people likely to retire to Florida are likely already in the burbs).

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright

Yes, nothing makes me more giddy than seeing racial and income segregation that has persisted for nearly a century slowly breaking up. You might be trying to frame it as "look at these racists so happy the blacks are all leaving", but in reality you like the status quo and I don't. If you haven't noticed, many of the migrants aren't even leaving the area, they are just moving to places that are less fucked up than there they live now. Do you really think I'm racist for being glad working class black families are getting out of Englewood and into the South suburbs? It literally makes no difference to me whether they live in either of those places, I don't spend a lot of time in the suburbs and I don't typically hang out in Englewood.Do you think I'm racist for rooting for these same families to move to places like Des Moines Iowa or Green Bay Wisconsin, places I spend nearly as much time as Chicago? Places my wife and I and our entire families are from?

Or maybe it's legitimately a matter of the status quo is the absolute worst possible outcome and ANYTHING is better than that? Maybe I know how great places like Green Bay or Appleton or Des Moines or the Quad Cities are. Maybe I know from decades of experience living in these places, even working a decent paying factory job in these places, that people who aren't given a chance at all here in Chicago will have way more opportunity there?

I'm starting to think that you relish watching the crime and breaking of families and poverty on our South and West sides. Perhaps you are afraid that if that well of human suffering dries up your own twisted political adgenda will suffer because you will no longer be able to point to it as evidence that you are right? I'm not sure why you have such a fetish for the ghettoization of whole communities of people rather than cheering for them to take matters into their own hands and improve their lot in life. It's like you want them to continue to suffer so you can say "look how racist America is, look how there is no social mobility" so you can win debates on the internet. You can't stand the notion that it might be possible for a formerly impoverished family to move to Ames Iowa where the unemployment rate is 1.5% and they are virtually guraunteed gainful employment.

Seriously, what's your problem? Why do you love entrenched poverty and segregation so much?

Ignore Kenmore. His posts are all snarky one-liners and reveal the chip on his shoulder.

He seriously needs to get out of Chicago to move to whatever lie of a paradise he is yearning for.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

The second is a good point... I wonder how many people are "retiring" (and in that case, the reason the demographics skew black is that white people likely to retire to Florida are likely already in the burbs).

It's anecdotal, but my experience is black retirees move all over the South, not just Florida. In large part this is because they often move back to where relatives are. Keep in mind that the tail end of the Great Migration was during the 1960s, meaning there are lots of black Baby Boomers who grew up in the northern cities but were born in the South - or at least have first cousins and the like down there. Hence they can move back and tap into existing social networks for the help they will need as they get older.

North Carolina in particular is a very popular destination for black retirees. In large part this seems to be because a lot of black people born in North Carolina moved to NYC. NYC developed a uniquely strong middle-class black community during the mid-late 20th century (in large part due to unionized public-sector jobs, which were not impacted by deindustrialization), but as with white retirees, there's little reason for them to stick around and deal with the high COL once they retire.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

North Carolina in particular is a very popular destination for black retirees. In large part this seems to be because a lot of black people born in North Carolina moved to NYC. NYC developed a uniquely strong middle-class black community during the mid-late 20th century (in large part due to unionized public-sector jobs, which were not impacted by deindustrialization), but as with white retirees, there's little reason for them to stick around and deal with the high COL once they retire.

Yes. NC is an enormous destination for NYC-area African Americans. NYC African Americans are generally descended from states to the immediate South (GA, SC, NC, VA) so are prone to retire in those states.

Also, African Americans moving out of NYC are much less likely than other racial categories to stay in the metro or region. But non-African American descended blacks (probably the majority of NYC blacks at this point) who leave do tend to stay in the region (which is why regional suburban black enclaves tend to lean increasingly West Indian).

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yes. NC is an enormous destination for NYC-area African Americans. NYC African Americans are generally descended from states to the immediate South (GA, SC, NC, VA) so are prone to retire in those states.

During the Great Migration, typically migration patterns followed the rail connections. Hence the Northeast Corridor gained most blacks from the Atlantic south, whereas Chicago pulled from Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, etc. I have also heard this is part of the reason why the Great Migration had a relatively small impact on Pittsburgh. You couldn't take a passenger train from the south straight to Pittsburgh - it had to stop somewhere else first - hence blacks moving north were more likely to stop in Philly or somewhere in Ohio rather than continuing on.

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, African Americans moving out of NYC are much less likely than other racial categories to stay in the metro or region. But non-African American descended blacks (probably the majority of NYC blacks at this point) who leave do tend to stay in the region (which is why regional suburban black enclaves tend to lean increasingly West Indian).

I know that SE Florida has a big West Indian community as well these days. Is there much cross migration between the communities?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I know that SE Florida has a big West Indian community as well these days. Is there much cross migration between the communities?

I think so. Anecdotal, but it seems a fair amount of NYC West Indians are retiring to S. Florida, while a number of younger NYC West Indians grew up in S. Florida and moved to NYC after college. I would also guess some West Indian families priced out of NYC move to S. Florida.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by article

Experts from the Urban Institute predict that by 2030, Chicago’s African-American population will shrink to 665,000 from a post-war high of roughly 1.2 million.

putting aside all of the racism hand-wringing in this thread, this glaring piece of info from the article is quite alarming to me.

chicago is on-track for a nearly 50% decline in its black population from its post-war high. it is THE story of chicago demographics over the past 3 decades.

mexican immigration was able to offset those loses early on, but with that well drying up, the continued loss of blacks to the burbs and beyond is becoming an ever more serious problem for chicago.

does anyone have stats for the % decline of black populations from post-war highs in other US cities? i'm curious to see where chicago stands against its peers in terms of the severity of its black-flight problem.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

putting aside all of the racism hand-wringing in this thread, this glaring piece of info from the article is quite alarming to me.

chicago is on-track for a nearly 50% decline in its black population from its post-war high. it is THE story of chicago demographics over the past 3 decades.

mexican immigration was able to offset those loses early on, but with that well drying up, the continued loss of blacks to the burbs and beyond is becoming an ever more serious problem for chicago.

does anyone have stats for the % decline of black populations from post-war highs in other US cities? i'm curious to see where chicago stands against its peers in terms of the severity of its black-flight problem.

I am 31 years old and this is the first time I've seen those words together..."black-flight." Our cities are ever changing and I think this is a new trend. Cities like Atlanta and Washington DC also show this trend.

I don't think it will be as extreme as white-flight but this is most certainly a trend and calls into question a lot of things.

Are they mostly feeing crime?
Are they becoming more middle class?
Are the inner burbs becoming cheaper as they age therefore becoming more viable for lower-income people?
Is this a good thing or bad thing for black Americans? We know this isn't good for our cities, as any population loss is usually a negative.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

I am 31 years old and this is the first time I've seen those words together..."black-flight."

well, "black flight" has been talked about as a thing in chicago since at least census 2010 revealed a loss of ~180,000 black chicagoans between 2000 and 2010.

i don't know exactly when the term entered the national lexicon of urban demographic trends, but it's certainly not a brand new term.

Originally Posted by jtown,man

I don't think it will be as extreme as white-flight

probably not nationally, but in some places like chicago, where we're already looking at a potential 50% decrease in the black population, black flight certainly could become a demographic trend on a similar level.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Really, I think there are two distinct things happening here.

1. The movement of black Americans out of core cities into first ring suburbs (and smaller cities in the same general region) skews more lower income. I say this because middle-class blacks have had the means to move to the suburbs since the last vestiges of informal housing segregation eased in the 1980s. The movement now is in part a response to gentrification (or at least rising housing costs), partly a result of the continual erosion of historically black neighborhoods (both structurally and socially) and in part because many of the first-ring suburbs and smaller cities have cheap housing and relative lack of demand, meaning lots of available affordable units.

There have always been plenty of black families that could have afforded to live in the suburbs, but were frozen out due to racist policies.

I think there are a ton of black families that were lured out of the middle class inner-city areas in Chicago (this is also what happened in Detroit) to new exurban developments from the late 90s through the housing market collapse. I know that this was the driver of the 2000-2010 population losses in Detroit and from what I've read there is a similar pattern in Chicago.

[bobdreamz]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

I am 31 years old and this is the first time I've seen those words together..."black-flight." Our cities are ever changing and I think this is a new trend. Cities like Atlanta and Washington DC also show this trend.

I don't think it will be as extreme as white-flight but this is most certainly a trend and calls into question a lot of things.

Are they mostly feeing crime?
Are they becoming more middle class?
Are the inner burbs becoming cheaper as they age therefore becoming more viable for lower-income people?
Is this a good thing or bad thing for black Americans? We know this isn't good for our cities, as any population loss is usually a negative.

https://americandream112.files.wordp...amer-dream.jpg

Believe it or not blacks and other minorities want the same thing that is portrayed on the left side also.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think there are a ton of black families that were lured out of the middle class inner-city areas in Chicago (this is also what happened in Detroit) to new exurban developments from the late 90s through the housing market collapse. I know that this was the driver of the 2000-2010 population losses in Detroit and from what I've read there is a similar pattern in Chicago.

it's not just new exurban develoments, there's also a good deal of inner and middle ring suburbia in chicagoland that is now becoming increasingly more black as well. from all of the articles i've read on the subject, there's no single reason the experts point to for chicago's black flight. better housing, escaping gang violence, better job prospects, etc. all factor into the equation.

it's a strange time to be a chicagoan. the whole "tale of two cities" thing seems to be getting ever more entrenched. this past weekend, while hundreds of thousands of (mostly white) millennials were frolicking and dancing the weekend away at lollapalooza in grant park, nearly 75 (mostly black) people were shot (12 fatally) in the south and west side ghettos. #twochicagos

if i were the head of a household in austin or englewood or lawndale and had the means to get my family out of there and into the burbs, i'd very likely do just that.

[Chisouthside]

Chicago has been more chill this summer from what I gather and the violence spike this past weekend definitely seems like an anomaly when you consider the downward trend of murders from 2016. Is it possible that perhaps the sudden influx of customers and revenue from lollapalooza to the west side drug markets might've destabilized some already weak arrangements?

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

Chicago has been more chill this summer from what I gather and the violence spike this past weekend definitely seems like an anomaly when you consider the downward trend of murders from 2016. Is it possible that perhaps the sudden influx of customers and revenue from lollapalooza to the west side drug markets might've destabilized some already weak arrangements?

That's an interesting point. To bad the dealers don't post revenue reports.. .

[cannedairspray]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

That's different though. Kenmore's post was meant to say that Chicagoans were glad *black people* were moving out. It mentions nothing of low-income people. Which if we are being honest, who doesn't want more high-income and less low-income people in their cities? Wanting more low-income people literally means you want a bankrupt city.

Seriously, no one wants poor people around, for obvious reasons.

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

That's an interesting point. To bad the dealers don't post revenue reports.. .

True we would need to talk to some of the people involved. But I dont think Chicago becoming one of the main/ if not the main port of entry for black tar heroin in the US is contributing to the surge in violence from 2014 onward. The would also explain the surge in addicts in the past few years in the loop area panhandling.