Alberta Politics II

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Mikemike

Those people are certainly there, and some of the "Bozo Eruptions" were actually regressive/hateful. Others were simply impolitic. And then there are socially conservative positions that can be rationally defended, rationally debated... All three may inflame the leftist twitterati who were never going to vote conservative ever, but if they could condemn #1, explain and apologize for #2 and actually engage #3 they could actually get some respect from centrists.

Social policy is a deflection from the biggest issue facing Alberta, which is massively inefficient social services. The Province has some of the most over staffed and over compensated public services in the world and little in terms of tangible benefit. Jason Kenney will likely seek payroll reductions so the public sector unions will attempt to weaponize social policy.

[Mikemike]

We probably do have an over-staffed/paid public sector to some degree, but they already are taking wage cuts in real terms. There's room for a bit more but no nearly enough to make up for the actual biggest issue, which is large deficits resulting from overreliance on oil & gas revenues.

What we actually need is ~$5B+ in additional tax revenue, either HST or a return to more progressive income tax rates.

[240glt]

Social policy is a deflection from the biggest issue facing Alberta, which is massively inefficient social services

It's a distraction, yes, but one that the UCP has brought upon themselves. There is a contingent out there that feels as though social issues are the major issues.

The Province has some of the most over staffed and over compensated public services in the world and little in terms of tangible benefit

This is simply not true. But you can thank the PC's for whatever you perceive as over staffing and compensation

Jason Kenney will likely seek payroll reductions so the public sector unions will attempt to weaponize social policy

This is likely true.

[PPAR]

Originally Posted by Mikemike

We probably do have an over-staffed/paid public sector to some degree, but they already are taking wage cuts in real terms. There's room for a bit more but no nearly enough to make up for the actual biggest issue, which is large deficits resulting from overreliance on oil & gas revenues.

What we actually need is ~$5B+ in additional tax revenue, either HST or a return to more progressive income tax rates.

I would welcome a grownup election in Alberta where the central issue was an HST vs drastic cuts to services. We have spent the last 50 years in this province pretending we are fiscally conservative while frittering away a kingdom of oil revenues.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by PPAR

I would welcome a grownup election in Alberta where the central issue was an HST vs drastic cuts to services. We have spent the last 50 years in this province pretending we are fiscally conservative while frittering away a kingdom of oil revenues.

It would take a PST of 12% top of the 5% GST to overcome AB's current borrowing requirements.

Do you think BC or ON have deficient services? AB could almost balance its budget by cutting spending to BC levels and would enjoy a surplus with drastic cuts to match ON levels.

[Mikemike]

I'd rather see the 5% GST become a 10% HST for a $4B increase in revenue, future carbon tax increases dedicated to general revenue(besides the refunded amount) for another $2b.

Then at least we're looking at reductions in service costs (~10% vs. ~20%) that could actually be possible to achieve without either massive service cuts or significant labour conflicts.

[PPAR]

Originally Posted by Doug

It would take a PST of 12% top of the 5% GST to overcome AB's current borrowing requirements.

Do you think BC or ON have deficient services? AB could almost balance its budget by cutting spending to BC levels and would enjoy a surplus with drastic cuts to match ON levels.

Lets look at this with some actual data:

Alberta GDP 2018 $302.8B
Alberta Gov't Spend 2018 $56.2B
Alberta Gov't Spend as % GDP 18.6%

BC GDP 2018 $240.8B
BC Gov't Spend 2018 $53.6B
BC Gov't Spend as % of GDP 22.3%

Seems to me to match BC government spending levels we would need to increase spending in Alberta.

Given that tax revenues are obviously directly related to the size of an economy, your line of reasoning is not particularly valid.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by PPAR

Lets look at this with some actual data:

Alberta GDP 2018 $302.8B
Alberta Gov't Spend 2018 $56.2B
Alberta Gov't Spend as % GDP 18.6%

BC GDP 2018 $240.8B
BC Gov't Spend 2018 $53.6B
BC Gov't Spend as % of GDP 22.3%

Seems to me to match BC government spending levels we would need to increase spending in Alberta.

Given that tax revenues are obviously directly related to the size of an economy, your line of reasoning is not particularly valid.

Spending per capita is the relevant measure. Do healthcare care and education cost more for someone who is more productive? Spending as a percentage of GDP is a measure of ability to fund and not funding requirement.

[PPAR]

Not really. Should India spend the same per capita as Canada? Why not?

[Doug]

Originally Posted by PPAR

Not really. Should India spend the same per capita as Canada? Why not?

India cannot spend te same as Canada so the question of should is moot? Should AB spend as little as BC or ON?

[PPAR]

Originally Posted by Doug

India cannot spend te same as Canada so the question of should is moot? Should AB spend as little as BC or ON?

So how should India decide how much to spend then? It is intellectually lazy just to state “they can’t afford it”. They do have some resources, but how much should be taxed away by government? Shouldn’t that amount be determined by ability to pay? I think society has a right to improved services as it becomes more prosperous, but individuals have a right to retain assets. The balance is what is always a question. This is best framed in terms of total wealth and total government spending, not some arbitrary value based on what happens next door.

[jawagord]

Not even a poor showing by Rachel’s canonfodder candidates as UCP wins taking 70 and 80 percent of the vote.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/polit...-to-government

[240glt]

No surprise there. The United Regressive Party was expected to win those seats handily. Oilsands & redneck ridings

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by 240glt

No surprise there. The United Regressive Party was expected to win those seats handily. Oilsands & redneck ridings

I agree, didn't expect anything different.

[lubicon]

Both held previously by Wild Rose members so this vote was status quo for the legislature. I agree, this was expected and is hardly a surprise.

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by lubicon

Both held previously by Wild Rose members so this vote was status quo for the legislature. I agree, this was expected and is hardly a surprise.

I guess I will point out the obvious in voting percentage then, you would think the combined UCP would get a lower percentage of the vote than before with some disgruntled PC's bleeding off to the ND's, instead the bleed came from the ND's. If the UCP can hold both the PC and WR vote in other riding the ND's will be wiped out just about everyvhere.

Alberta general election, 2015:

Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Wildrose Brian Jean 2,950 43.85 +3.70
ND Ariana Mancini 2,071 30.79 +22.86
PC Don Scott 1,502 22.33 −26.62

Wildrose Don MacIntyre 7,829 42.68 -3.54
PC Kerry Towle 5,136 28.00 -12.06
ND Patricia Norman 4,244 23.14 +18.47

Alberta provincial by-election, July 12, 2018

United Conservative Laila Goodridge 2,635 65.89 -0.29
New Democratic Jane Stroud 1,181 29.53 -1.25

United Conservative Devin Dreeshen 8,033 81.76 +11.08
New Democratic Nicole Mooney 907 9.23 -13.90

[Doug]

Originally Posted by lubicon

Both held previously by Wild Rose members so this vote was status quo for the legislature. I agree, this was expected and is hardly a surprise.

A by-election in Calgary would have been more telling. The UCP is poised to win big. Sad truth is that beyond Kenny, the roster of candidates is rather poor (still nowhere near as bad as the random NDP candidates that won). The UCP government is bound to be unpopular as it will make the tough spending decisions that the NDP deferred. The UCP will have to at least freeze wages and hiring. I doubt even Kenney is brave enough to roll back wages.

[the.tru.albertan]

Originally Posted by 240glt

No surprise there. The United Regressive Party was expected to win those seats handily. Oilsands & redneck ridings

Lol... anywhere outside of Edmonton/Calgary city limits is always described as redneck by the Urbaners.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by the.tru.albertan

Lol... anywhere outside of Edmonton/Calgary city limits is always described as redneck by the Urbaners.

Anything outside Edmonton is redneck according to the public sector.

[240glt]

^ I’m not convinced that people in urban areas of Alberta are all that different than rural folks in this province.

Most Edmontonians seem folksy and simple and the city is the biggest small town you’ve ever seen. Calgary may be more sophisticated but it’s still not very progressive

We’ll take our fat cat provincial government pension and relocate to BC at the first opportunity