Calgary now Canada's fourth largest metropolitan area

[Surrealplaces]

I guess it's not a huge surprise, as most of us were expecting this to happen sometime this year or next. I thought I'd open a thread to discuss this.

These numbers are estimates using the same boundaries as the 2006 census, so no, the communities to the south still aren't included.
http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm

Some more info broken down
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t021-eng.htm

Here's a link to Statscan's commuting flow data

Link to explanation of delineation rules (forward commuting rules, etc..)

For interest sake, here is link to some info discussing the upcoming expansions of CMA boundaries, and it look like Calgary's communities to the south aren't planned to be added
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/92f0138.../hl-fs-eng.htm

[Doug]

How long until Edmonton moves into number 5 and Kitchener moves into 10th. I don't want to touch the Winnipeg, Quebec, Hamilton positioning as that is far less certain.

[Wooster]

Calgary's growth in all areas, natural increase, interprovincial and international migration is all still very strong despite the pretty severe recession the city experienced over this time. I suppose in relative terms, compared to where people were moving from, Calgary's economy was still more robust.

[Habanero]

Good news for Calgary. The recession isn't as bad as some think, and the numbers back that up.

Does anyone know how many people are in the areas to the south that aren't counted in the CMA? We're talking Okotoks and Heritage Point right?

[Coldrsx]

7-10 yrs for Edmonton to eclipse Ottawa IMO

i like the 7-9 battle

[Habanero]

^The 709 battle kind of reminds me of the western confernce in the NHL lol!

The big six metros

Toronto:
2009: 5,623.5 (+1.7%) A gain of 92,900 people.
2008: 5,530.6 (+1.8%) A gain of 98,000 people.
2007: 5,432.6

Montreal:
2009: 3,814.7 (+1.3%) A gain of 49,600 people.
2008: 3,765.1 (+1.2%) A gain of 43,700 people.
2007: 3,721.4

Vancouver
2009: 2,328.0 (+2.1%) A gain of 48,700 people.
2008: 2,279.3 (+2.15%) A gain of 48,000 people.
2007: 2,231.3

Calgary
2009: 1,230.2 (+3.22%) A gain of 38,400 people
2008: 1,191.8 (+3.03%) A gain of 35,000 people
2007: 1,156.8

Ottawa
2009: 1,220.7 (+1.61%) A gain of 19,400 people
2008: 1,201.3 (+1.58%) A gain of 18,200 people
2007: 1,183.1

Edmonton
2009: 1,155.5 (+2.49%) A gain of 28,100 people
2008: 1,127.3 (+2.33%) A gain of 25,700 people
2007: 1,101.6




The next clump of large cities

Quebec City:
2009: 746.3 (+1.1%) Gain of about 8,200 people
2008: 738.1 (+1.02%) Gain of about 7,500 people
2007: 730.6

Winnipeg:
2009: 742.4 (+1.45%) Gain of about 10,600 people
2008: 731.6 (+1.13%) Gain of about 8,300 people
2007: 723.3


Hamilton:
2009: 739.4 (+0.91%) Gain of about 6,700 people
2008: 732.7 (+0.97%) Gain of about 7,100 people
2007: 725.6

[Wooster]

Herald article on it. I swear Jason Markusoff gets his news from skyscraperpage. His articles always appear a day or two after something been's talked about on here.

Anyway, we're number 4! we're number 4!

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Calgary...116/story.html

[frinkprof]

^Not exclusively. Sometimes he gets his news from the comments section of his previous articles.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Habanero

Good news for Calgary. The recession isn't as bad as some think, and the numbers back that up.

Does anyone know how many people are in the areas to the south that aren't counted in the CMA? We're talking Okotoks and Heritage Point right?

The numbers for that area are kind of confusing. It appears to be around 70,000 in total. Census Division #6 is essentially Calgary's CMA + Foothills MD, and Mountain View County. http://www.albertafirst.com/profiles/cd/cd6.asp

In 2006
Census Division 6: 1,160.9
Calgary CMA: 1,079.3

That leaves 81, 600 people between Foothills MD and Mountain view county.

According to Statscan Mountain View County had 12,391 people, so that would leave Foothills MD (and the towns inside of it) with 69,200 people which seems about right.

According to Statscan
Okotoks 17,200
High River 10,700
Foothills MD 19,700

Which add up to 46,700. I'm guessing the other 23,000 must be made up of other communities like Black Diamond, etc..

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by Doug

It is interesting that Calgary is first or second per capita in every category except intraprovincial migration, where it is virtually last. That destroys the myth that it nothing more than a provincial center.

Not last, look at Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver - all negative. Calgary at least is slightly positive.

[Rusty van Reddick]

Originally Posted by Habanero

Good news for Calgary. The recession isn't as bad as some think, and the numbers back that up.

Recession affects interprovincial migration. The biggest component of our growth was INTERNATIONAL migration, which grows based on the existence of pre-existing ethnic communities. It is self-sustaining growth and doesn't go away when economic times are hard. This is why Toronto continues to grow despite its economic troubles.

I just chatted with a student from Sudan and asked him why he chose Calgary. He said it was because of friends and relatives here. Perfect case in point.

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Recession affects interprovincial migration. The biggest component of our growth was INTERNATIONAL migration, which grows based on the existence of pre-existing ethnic communities. It is self-sustaining growth and doesn't go away when economic times are hard. This is why Toronto continues to grow despite its economic troubles.

I just chatted with a student from Sudan and asked him why he chose Calgary. He said it was because of friends and relatives here. Perfect case in point.

Having read your many posts over the years on the matter, I can tell you're a big international immigration fan (and an immigrant to Canada yourself). Is it because are you selfishly wanting better international cuisine in Calgary??

[Surrealplaces]

Rusty, don't forget Calgary did quite well on interprovincial migration, it was intraprovincial migration where Calgary was sluggish. When it came to interprovincial migration, Calgary literally kicked ass on everyone else.

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Recession affects interprovincial migration. The biggest component of our growth was INTERNATIONAL migration, which grows based on the existence of pre-existing ethnic communities. It is self-sustaining growth and doesn't go away when economic times are hard. This is why Toronto continues to grow despite its economic troubles.

I just chatted with a student from Sudan and asked him why he chose Calgary. He said it was because of friends and relatives here. Perfect case in point.

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by Wooster

Having read your many posts over the years on the matter, I can tell you're a big international immigration fan (and an immigrant to Canada yourself). Is it because are you selfishly wanting better international cuisine in Calgary??

I'm a big fan of it because it's the only way we'll improve. Just imagine how strong the WRA would be if we didn't have some offsetting sanity from people from "not around here".

[Ramsayfarian]

Originally Posted by freeweed

I'm a big fan of it because it's the only way we'll improve. Just imagine how strong the WRA would be if we didn't have some offsetting sanity from people from "not around here".

War Relocation Authourity?

[Chinook Arch]

I see the population talk has moved over to here. It feels good to move up the ladder another notch

Anyone have any predictions for Calgary's population growth?

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Wooster

Not last, look at Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver - all negative. Calgary at least is slightly positive.

Toronto and Vanouver make sense as they suffer large outflows to surrounding CMA's (Barrie, Oshawa, Hamilton and Kitchener in the case of Toronto and Abbottsford in the case of Vancouver). Montreal is surprising.

I wonder how much of Calgary's poor numbers on the intraprovincial front is from people moving to places like Okotoks, High River and rural Mountain View that aren't in the CMA?

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

I see the population talk has moved over to here. It feels good to move up the ladder another notch

Anyone have any predictions for Calgary's population growth?

I think it will continue to slow, but at no where near the rate it will slow in other major Canadian cities. I wouldn't be surprised if half the CMA's on the list are in negative territory 10-15 years from now.

[ST1]

Originally Posted by Doug

I think it will continue to slow, but at no where near the rate it will slow in other major Canadian cities. I wouldn't be surprised if half the CMA's on the list are in negative territory 10-15 years from now.

Why do you expect them to slow or be in the negative? Aging population?

[Doug]

Originally Posted by ST1

Why do you expect them to slow or be in the negative? Aging population?

Aging population plus reduced immigration as more developed nations compete for immigrants and developing world economies improve to the point where opportunities at home are more attractive than those abroad.

Twenty years from now I suspect the US will be the only developed nation with any kind of substantial population growth as it has a signficantly higher birth rate.