Downtown Ottawa Revitalization Task Force

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Business execs can say a lot of things. But look at what is happening on the ground.

https://www.curbed.com/2022/06/hybri...mote-work.html

Also, I personally know a few engineering outfits that are absolutely scaling back their real estate footprint. Some tech companies had standardized remote work long before Covid, including hot bunking cubicles and flexible workspaces, etc. The rest of the world had to catch-up to where they were post Covid. And that will obviously be an adjustment. Some places will be ahead of the curve and some behind.

The idea that we're 100% going back is laughable. If you know anybody in HR, you can get them to explain why to you. Ask them how recruiting for 100% in office is going. Could be a good way to downsize the public service though. Just insist on zero WFH. Not sure how that would help downtown Ottawa though.

I would be quite surprised if private sector work from home survives the current/upcoming recession. Legit WFH roles will be outsourced to lower cost jurisdictions. As the recession “fixes” the labour shortage employers will be less afraid to demand their workers work from the office most days.

Public sector is harder to predict (most public servants do not have measurable deliverables), but I suspect the political level will eventually tire of things not getting done. I suspect the Opposition will also get more critical of the policy.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

On topic, counting on the feds to generate foot traffic in the core is a policy failure. The city should know better.

It is an office building district where the Feds are the main employer. If the federal government wants to switch to a virtual capital city model then much of it will need to be demolished. A few older buildings (built in an era where window proximity was important) can be converted to residential.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I would be quite surprised if private sector work from home survives the current/upcoming recession. Legit WFH roles will be outsourced to lower cost jurisdictions. As the recession “fixes” the labour shortage employers will be less afraid to demand their workers work from the office most days.

These are opposing tensions. Anybody who wants to outsource or remote to a cheaper jurisdiction isn't going to be the type to also insist they come to the office. And for a lot of companies, they are going to find it cheaper to take productivity hits and hire remote. Why pay Bay Area wages to someone you forced to move there, when they are happy to live in Oklahoma and take a lower pay packet that still makes them highly competitive.

Originally Posted by acottawa

Public sector is harder to predict (most public servants do not have measurable deliverables), but I suspect the political level will eventually tire of things not getting done. I suspect the Opposition will also get more critical of the policy.

The PS has struggled because they were probably a decade behind industry on remote work capabilities. That gap will lessen in due course. But also, I don't see what stops future governments from using remote work to move PS jobs out of Ottawa itself. Far better than returning the PS to the office is bringing those jobs to their ridings....

Originally Posted by acottawa

It is an office building district where the Feds are the main employer. If the federal government wants to switch to a virtual capital city model then much of it will need to be demolished. A few older buildings (built in an era where window proximity was important) can be converted to residential.

It's an opportunity to reimagine downtown. And the city should focus on that instead of begging to get PS workers back at 50% capacity.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

These are opposing tensions. Anybody who wants to outsource or remote to a cheaper jurisdiction isn't going to be the type to also insist they come to the office. And for a lot of companies, they are going to find it cheaper to take productivity hits and hire remote. Why pay Bay Area wages to someone you forced to move there, when they are happy to live in Oklahoma and take a lower pay packet that still makes them highly competitive.




The PS has struggled because they were probably a decade behind industry on remote work capabilities. That gap will lessen in due course. But also, I don't see what stops future governments from using remote work to move PS jobs out of Ottawa itself. Far better than returning the PS to the office is bringing those jobs to their ridings....



It's an opportunity to reimagine downtown. And the city should focus on that instead of begging to get PS workers back at 50% capacity.

Yes, I think that was my point. For jobs that can be legit done WFH there is no need for jobs (or wages) to be tied to expensive cities. So the unions and employees pushing for indefinite work from home shooting themselves in the foot.

For those that aren’t legit WFH (productivity, etc. are down) there will be pressure to put employees back in the office.

A “downtown” without significant employment isn’t really a downtown.

[Truenorth00]

To illustrate where this is already going, the military itself is now testing out remote work to improve retention in some circumstances. Previously some members were forced to go unaccompanied or to release. Now they can work remote for certain positions. This improves retention. And a lot of lower ranking Ottawa tech staff positions can be remoted to the bases or WFH. This is useful for members who find the cost of living to be too high in Ottawa, a well known issue that is increasingly being considered a security threat.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yes, I think that was my point. For jobs that can be legit done WFH there is no need for jobs (or wages) to be tied to expensive cities. So the unions and employees pushing for indefinite work from home shooting themselves in the foot.

For those that aren’t legit WFH (productivity, etc. are down) there will be pressure to put employees back in the office.

My point here was that a new balance is coming. There's either going to be some component of WFH or simply many of these jobs shipped out of Ottawa. Might as well start planning for that.

Originally Posted by acottawa

A “downtown” without significant employment isn’t really a downtown.

There will still be plenty of employment downtown. It just may not be as much of the PS as there is now.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

46% of the workforce is still working from home?? Good grief! I don't know how proper business relationships are formed by zoom.

The last time I was downtown a week ago, the market and other parts of downtown were pretty dead in the middle of the day, and the trains were mostly empty at rush hour.

As it said in the article, downtown Ottawa could quickly become Detroit.

Everything that is happening will quickly kill off business downtown and building conversion will not solve this because this will take way too long.

We need solutions fast. Repeated downtown street closures whether short-term or long-term are not helping. That just says, stay away.

I think 46% is exclusively working from home. I know a few acquaintances who have posted on social media that they went into the office for the first time recently, or will be going 2 days a week starting in September etc.

I was in Portage yesterday and granted it was a Friday but I can't believe it is even 10% of capacity. a handful of cafes were open and I saw maybe 5 people in the public area.

The idea that it doesn't impact service is questionable when all the measurable parts of the public service are seeing service levels drop. But I don't think it is the public service's job to worry about downtown Ottawa.

Housing is pretty entrenched already and growing fast. Yes I know they would love the feds to donate a building to put some subsidized housing into the market but I really don't see how this rescues the area either.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

My point here was that a new balance is coming. There's either going to be some component of WFH or simply many of these jobs shipped out of Ottawa. Might as well start planning for that.



There will still be plenty of employment downtown. It just may not be as much of the PS as there is now.

Where are these new downtown jobs coming from? Diversifying is the mantra of every 1 industry town (or nearly so in our case). WFH or moving out of Ottawa are both a serious threat to our urban vibrancy.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Where are these new downtown jobs coming from? Diversifying is the mantra of every 1 industry town (or nearly so in our case). WFH or moving out of Ottawa are both a serious threat to our urban vibrancy.

As long as there are jobs in an office, companies will seek to place them in the most central location they can. I have zero doubts that any space freed up by the feds in the core will go to other industries.

A worse outcome for the core would be PS at 50% WFH while still retaining all that real estate in the core.

[lrt's friend]

The private sector in Ottawa has already decided to mostly locate in the suburbs. I cannot see this changing. The 'Shopify' example of a few years ago has proven that downtown is no longer the choice for high tech when high tech is also switching to WFH. This tells us that at least in the shorter term, downtown will remain a ghost town. Our downtown has been designed for PS commuting and is not suitable for the private service sector, where many cannot be tied to transit commuting constraints as designed in Ottawa.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I think 46% is exclusively working from home. I know a few acquaintances who have posted on social media that they went into the office for the first time recently, or will be going 2 days a week starting in September etc.

I was in Portage yesterday and granted it was a Friday but I can't believe it is even 10% of capacity. a handful of cafes were open and I saw maybe 5 people in the public area.

The idea that it doesn't impact service is questionable when all the measurable parts of the public service are seeing service levels drop. But I don't think it is the public service's job to worry about downtown Ottawa.

Housing is pretty entrenched already and growing fast. Yes I know they would love the feds to donate a building to put some subsidized housing into the market but I really don't see how this rescues the area either.



Where are these new downtown jobs coming from? Diversifying is the mantra of every 1 industry town (or nearly so in our case). WFH or moving out of Ottawa are both a serious threat to our urban vibrancy.

Is this really wise to create large pockets of low income housing anywhere in the city? I thought that current best practices encourages housing for wide income levels to avoid the ghetto effect.

[originalmuffins]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The PS may have issues, but the reality is that the world of work has changed and whatever balance is found isn't likely to be 100% in the office anymore. It's not just the PS, I don't know a single office worker where WFH is lower than 40%. And going forward, I know of several companies that are actually downsizing their real estate portfolio. I expect the PS will also get there eventually when they figure out Office 2.0.

Relying on the Public Service to keep downtown vibrant is dumb. The PS doesn't exist to make downtown Ottawa vibrant. And indeed, that fixation is partly why Ottawa has struggled with making downtown vibrant.

Exactly, this is what the gaping whole of our downtown has become. It's why our downtown would "die" after 6pm everyday. It's why Ottawa for a long time and still is at times called "boring". The downtown isn't designed to be a downtown with eat work play in mind, it was: "office space for workers" then call it a day. If anything, this task force needs to innovate and create reasons to come downtown instead of being forced back into an office.

And I highly disagree with this threads abundance of forcing workers back into the office to revitalize our downtown. Many teams and many offices have worked just as efficiently or more efficiently remotely. Just because some haven't, doesn't mean that's the fault of the whole system. We need to not live in the past, and this narrative of forcing people back into a physical office to fix our downtown problem isn't the reason we are in this mess, it's because the downtown isn't properly designed with mixed use. Do you hear about these problems from other cities that are bigger or the same size like it is with Ottawa? Not so much.

It's backwards and archaic to think workers need to be forced back into the office to create a false image of "working". That bullshit time argument is just saying one type is preferred. How is bullshit time at the water cooler better than making a coffee at home? Because one has the fallacy of being in the office? Allowing remote work to stay or having a hybrid model isn't the problem, it's not having reasons to go downtown and having a interconnected city that has us here. Business travel and creating business rationales for in person meetings can still happen under a hybrid or remote work model. We had a lack of effective public transportation and most in this forum push for mixed use with densification throughout our city. Lots with the wrong mentality, and the city won't be able to grow properly if we can't adapt to a future where employees aren't tied to a physical office full time. Completion of Stage 3, Via Rail's HFR, LeBreton, densification and district efforts, as well as revitalization efforts across downtown will allow the city to get to where it needs to be, not "but what about PS?! Are they really working?!".

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

The private sector in Ottawa has already decided to mostly locate in the suburbs. I cannot see this changing.

The private sector was priced out of the core, forced to compete with the federal government for office space. Also, a good chunk of Ottawa's tech sector is hardware companies or defence industrial companies who need the space. That mix is changing over time and as they feds cut back, downtown rates drop attracting new tenants.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

The 'Shopify' example of a few years ago has proven that downtown is no longer the choice for high tech when high tech is also switching to WFH.

Shopify still have space downtown (234 Laurier). They just don't need a building anymore that houses a thousand employees. And that building itself is moving on to other clients, even some coworking space, which is fine for generating foot traffic. I expect a lot of downtown offices, including some of the Public Service to eventually become co-working and swing spaces like this.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

This tells us that at least in the shorter term, downtown will remain a ghost town. Our downtown has been designed for PS commuting and is not suitable for the private service sector, where many cannot be tied to transit commuting constraints as designed in Ottawa.

There's undoubtedly going to be pain in the short term. It's kinda deserved. The city should never have let the feds turn downturn into a PS office ghetto. Now we are paying the price. It'll work out eventually.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

As long as there are jobs in an office, companies will seek to place them in the most central location they can. I have zero doubts that any space freed up by the feds in the core will go to other industries.

A worse outcome for the core would be PS at 50% WFH while still retaining all that real estate in the core.

I really doubt there is a huge demand for central Ottawa office space that would quickly be snapped up if Feds leave.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I really doubt there is a huge demand for central Ottawa office space that would quickly be snapped up if Feds leave.

Quickly? No. Eventually? Yes.

This is a function of the feds having an outsized influence on downtown commercial real estate.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Quickly? No. Eventually? Yes.

This is a function of the feds having an outsized influence on downtown commercial real estate.

It is a function of Ottawa being a capital city without a well-developed private sector. If the Feds leave it is hard to see who would be interested in taking their place. A significant portion of the “private” office space downtown is also federal-related (lobbyists, consultants, professional services, embassies). Much of this will also clear out if the federal office footprint dwindles.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The private sector was priced out of the core, forced to compete with the federal government for office space. Also, a good chunk of Ottawa's tech sector is hardware companies or defence industrial companies who need the space. That mix is changing over time and as they feds cut back, downtown rates drop attracting new tenants.

Shopify still have space downtown (234 Laurier). They just don't need a building anymore that houses a thousand employees. And that building itself is moving on to other clients, even some coworking space, which is fine for generating foot traffic. I expect a lot of downtown offices, including some of the Public Service to eventually become co-working and swing spaces like this.

There's undoubtedly going to be pain in the short term. It's kinda deserved. The city should never have let the feds turn downturn into a PS office ghetto. Now we are paying the price. It'll work out eventually.

You’re talking as if downtown Ottawa had some vibrant private sector that was driven out by the Feds. I don’t think there is a lot of evidence of this. You might get the odd startup picking up cheap office space (although if you are correct and the private sector wants to WFH indefinitely then I am not sure why these startups would want a lot of office space).

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

This comment was made in a newspaper story about the upcoming municipal election.

This can apply to any business.

And does.

I think (and hope) greater work-life balance and flexibility is here to stay. But more and more organizations (and the people within them) are also going to find that a lot of things, many of them intangible, need in-person contact.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

The private sector in Ottawa has already decided to mostly locate in the suburbs. I cannot see this changing.

I could, if we decided to stop subsidizing suburban office parks.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

You’re talking as if downtown Ottawa had some vibrant private sector that was driven out by the Feds.

Didn't mean to imply that. Just saying if you need a lot of space and need it cheap, downtown hasn't really been an option as long as the feds were willing to pay a lot for space. As feds change their posture, it will free to space for other businesses to reconsider downtown. Hardware tech and defence industrial businesses won't leave Kanata and Bell's Corners. But the software and business process oriented businesses do tend to prefer the core. This isn't just an Ottawa trend either. A lot of the tech giants build their offices in downtown areas all over the world.

That said, it's going to take time to reach a new commercial mix in the core, and some of space can and should be freed up for housing. Having more residents there will improve vibrancy.

Originally Posted by acottawa

I don’t think there is a lot of evidence of this. You might get the odd startup picking up cheap office space (although if you are correct and the private sector wants to WFH indefinitely then I am not sure why these startups would want a lot of office space).

Not suggesting they will need "a lot of office space". But like Shopify did, they will need at least some. And whatever they have is likely to be in the core. Partly because it's easier to get to. And partly because these tech companies keep saying their talent prefers urban areas and is more likely to live in urban areas.

[DarthVader_1961]

As a federal employee, we g=have been told that work from home is here to stay in some form.

The buildings I used to work out of in Bells Connors are being modified to function as temporary offices on an as needed basis. If you want to come to one of these buildings for a day, you take a cube for that day.

Some federal employees will return to offices on a full time basis if the work they do is of a sensitive nature.

In truth, the feds are drooling over how much money they will save on rents

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Not suggesting they will need "a lot of office space". But like Shopify did, they will need at least some. And whatever they have is likely to be in the core. Partly because it's easier to get to. And partly because these tech companies keep saying their talent prefers urban areas and is more likely to live in urban areas.

But if their talent is remote then it doesn’t matter much where their skeleton HQ is (and there is probably little reason for it to be in Ottawa at all).

I hope you’re wrong, because if you’re right then Ottawa is going to hollow out quickly in a digital nomad world.