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Originally Posted by logan5
Drawing from information that is currently available, it is likely that a driverless taxi or an Uber like service will be cost competitive with public transit, albeit in a car pooling service (similar to Lyft Shuttle). Translink may even deploy a fleet of its own vehicles.
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People always seem to miss this, but the same autonomous technology can be applied to transit vehicles. In fact, it's easier because the routes are fixed and can be extensively mapped, making it easier on the self-driving logic. What that means is that drivers can be eliminated from buses too, and since the labour is the biggest cost factor it means that transit will also be cheaper. So it's a bit short-sighted to say that Uber will be cost-competitive with transit, especially since the capital and operating costs of 40 to 100 vehicles are never going to be able to match those of a single large bus.
Quote:
Originally Posted by logan5
If people can commute to work in a car, even if the ride is shared, they will.
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Carpooling has never made any significant inroads to mode share, and I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that autonomous vehicles are going to change that. The majority of people who disdain transit seem to want direct point-to-point transportation that they don't have to share with the common folk.
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Originally Posted by logan5
So back to my original point, those LRT tracks will be torn up in 15 years to make way for autonomous vehicles of some type.
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With the tracks are in place it's far, far more likely that the manually-driven trainsets will be replaced with autonomous ones.