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  #18981  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Very true. Quebec as always is a wild card. If the Tories can recruit a number of good candidates, they could end up with quite a few (non Montreal) ridings.

Also, this next election will not be a clean sweep for the Liberals in the Maritimes. Add in Tory gains in suburban and rural southwestern Ontario, and Trudeau could easily lose the election.
Conservatives won in a Québec by-election yesterday.
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  #18982  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Very true. Quebec as always is a wild card. If the Tories can recruit a number of good candidates, they could end up with quite a few (non Montreal) ridings.

Also, this next election will not be a clean sweep for the Liberals in the Maritimes. Add in Tory gains in suburban and rural southwestern Ontario, and Trudeau could easily lose the election.
Or his majority anyway...
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  #18983  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 4:20 PM
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For whatever it's worth, the Federal Liberals just lost a very Québécois riding to the Tories tonight in a byelection. They had won it in a somewhat tight four-way race in 2015 - a "bellwether" riding of the entire province at that time. And it used to be a safe Bloc riding back in the day - bellwether again. This time the Bloc and NDP were both nearly wiped out.
One thing I find fascinating is that the Liberal support in that byelection is relatively unchanged from 2015. Rather, the Conservative gain appears to be them benefitting from a complete collapse of the BQ and NDP vote. This is somewhat counterintuitive; you'd think the Liberals would benefit from a collapse of the NDP vote, but Quebec is a whole different playbook than Anglo-Canada.

It seems to be whoever gets the star candidate wins, looking at both of the Quebec by-elections we've seen this term.
     
     
  #18984  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 4:22 PM
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Ontario is a bit more of a wild card than typical going in to 2019. What happens with Ontario's provincial politics between now and then will make a huge difference. If Ford's term as Premier doesn't go well (which is pretty much a given, though he may surprise us!), it could take the wind out of the sails of any Conservative upswing. That may actually be the biggest variable determining the outcome at this point, actually.
     
     
  #18985  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 4:57 PM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
Besides the Ford win in Ontario will probably help Trudeau in Ontario at the next election as Ontario has a flawless record of never having the same party in power at Queen`s Park and Ottawa at the same time.
? Seems to me that recent history shows the opposite: electing Wynne then Trudeau, then electing Ford then Scheer, is what would be the logical sequence.

"flawless record"? More like just a trend.
     
     
  #18986  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 5:02 PM
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This is somewhat counterintuitive; you'd think the Liberals would benefit from a collapse of the NDP vote
It's perfectly intuitive when you recall that "the NDP vote in Quebec" was mostly the traditional Bloc vote that just fell in love with Jack Layton (and could respect our ex-minister Tom Mulcair to a degree). There's no real "NDP vote in Quebec" out there - business as usual for the federal NDP is that it does not exist in this province. We may be getting back to that.

This BQ-Layton vote is quite a bit more likely to go to parties like the CAQ, ADQ or federal Tories (or even QS) than it is to go to a super-federalist red party like the PLC or Couillard's version of the PLQ.
     
     
  #18987  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 10:36 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
It's perfectly intuitive when you recall that "the NDP vote in Quebec" was mostly the traditional Bloc vote that just fell in love with Jack Layton (and could respect our ex-minister Tom Mulcair to a degree). There's no real "NDP vote in Quebec" out there - business as usual for the federal NDP is that it does not exist in this province. We may be getting back to that.

This BQ-Layton vote is quite a bit more likely to go to parties like the CAQ, ADQ or federal Tories (or even QS) than it is to go to a super-federalist red party like the PLC or Couillard's version of the PLQ.
It will be interesting to see if the BQ and NDP collapse is complete and province wide do the Tories gain similar support levels to the CAQ outside the Greater Montreal area and the Liberals support is mainly isolated to the Greater Montreal area and Gatineau/ Western edge of the province?
     
     
  #18988  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
It's perfectly intuitive when you recall that "the NDP vote in Quebec" was mostly the traditional Bloc vote that just fell in love with Jack Layton (and could respect our ex-minister Tom Mulcair to a degree). There's no real "NDP vote in Quebec" out there - business as usual for the federal NDP is that it does not exist in this province. We may be getting back to that.

This BQ-Layton vote is quite a bit more likely to go to parties like the CAQ, ADQ or federal Tories (or even QS) than it is to go to a super-federalist red party like the PLC or Couillard's version of the PLQ.
Somewhat ironic that the vaunted "socially liberal" element that supposedly makes QC distinct has no problem flip flopping from Left wing party to Right.
     
     
  #18989  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 11:12 PM
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Somewhat ironic that the vaunted "socially liberal" element that supposedly makes QC distinct has no problem flip flopping from Left wing party to Right.
Unlike in the west, the left/right wing divide isn't so carved in stone between the Liberals/NDP and the Conservatives here in the east (at least in terms of social policy and certain economic policies like supply management).
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  #18990  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 11:32 PM
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Somewhat ironic that the vaunted "socially liberal" element that supposedly makes QC distinct has no problem flip flopping from Left wing party to Right.
It's only one riding and it's only a by-election. We'll talk again if most of the province flips to the Scheer-Cons. So far the only time the province flipped to the Tories was for Brian Mulroney who was a native in addition to being perceived as a red tory (rightly or wrongly).
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  #18991  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 11:40 PM
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It's only one riding and it's only a by-election. We'll talk again if most of the province flips to the Scheer-Cons. So far the only time the province flipped to the Tories was for Brian Mulroney who was a native in addition to being perceived as a red tory (rightly or wrongly).
The entire province flipped to the NDP when it became obvious that they were offering the most at the time, and then the province flipped Liberal when it became obvious that they were offering the most at the time.

There's less of a left/right split in Quebec and more of a focus on whatever party is going to benefit them the most on that particular day. In 2019 it very well could be the Conservatives or it could still just be the Liberals.
     
     
  #18992  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 11:55 PM
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Originally Posted by JHikka View Post
The entire province flipped to the NDP when it became obvious that they were offering the most at the time, and then the province flipped Liberal when it became obvious that they were offering the most at the time.

There's less of a left/right split in Quebec and more of a focus on whatever party is going to benefit them the most on that particular day. In 2019 it very well could be the Conservatives or it could still just be the Liberals.
I do get a sense in Quebec that there might be more of a deepening divide between Montreal and the rest of Quebec voters and values. Same seems to becoming starker with Toronto/Ontario and Vancouver/BC voters as well. The things that might be massively popular with urban downtown voters and young hipsters and campus profs and students at the universities might be repudiated and very unpopular in the burbs, with blue collar folks, and rural areas with families and older voters.
     
     
  #18993  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2018, 11:59 PM
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After the government accepted 33 of the Senate's amendments on the cannabis act and rejected 13 of them (including the one that would have allowed provinces to ban home growing), today the Senate backed down and voted to pass the 33-amendment version into law.

So it's done. The Cannabis Act will be getting Royal Assent within days.
     
     
  #18994  
Old Posted Jun 20, 2018, 12:19 AM
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I imagine they didn't get into this much leading up to legalization because they didn't want to muddy the waters, but now we need to start pushing for amnesty and pardons. Anyone currently serving a sentence or who has a criminal record as a result of non-violent cannabis charges needs to be free yesterday. Criminalizing a drug that is almost certainly safer than the alcohol and tobacco we allow has had a devastating impact on non-violent cannabis users and you can be sure a disproportionate number of them belong to minority groups. After the Nazi concentration camps were liberated, most of the people imprisoned there for being LGBT remained incarcerated and served out the rest of their sentences. We know now how immoral that was, so let's not make the same mistake with all of the people currently in our justice system as a result of cannabis.
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  #18995  
Old Posted Jun 20, 2018, 1:08 AM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
After the government accepted 33 of the Senate's amendments on the cannabis act and rejected 13 of them (including the one that would have allowed provinces to ban home growing), today the Senate backed down and voted to pass the 33-amendment version into law.

So it's done. The Cannabis Act will be getting Royal Assent within days.
I've forgotten the rules - if the Commons reject the Senate's proposed amendment to legislation and sends the Bill back to the Senate, is the Senate able to hold out for its amendment, at least in theory, or is it limited to withholding its approval of the unamended legislation, again in theory?
     
     
  #18996  
Old Posted Jun 20, 2018, 1:10 AM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
I imagine they didn't get into this much leading up to legalization because they didn't want to muddy the waters, but now we need to start pushing for amnesty and pardons. Anyone currently serving a sentence or who has a criminal record as a result of non-violent cannabis charges needs to be free yesterday. Criminalizing a drug that is almost certainly safer than the alcohol and tobacco we allow has had a devastating impact on non-violent cannabis users and you can be sure a disproportionate number of them belong to minority groups. After the Nazi concentration camps were liberated, most of the people imprisoned there for being LGBT remained incarcerated and served out the rest of their sentences. We know now how immoral that was, so let's not make the same mistake with all of the people currently in our justice system as a result of cannabis.
Will pardons make any practical difference?
     
     
  #18997  
Old Posted Jun 20, 2018, 1:17 AM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Somewhat ironic that the vaunted "socially liberal" element that supposedly makes QC distinct has no problem flip flopping from Left wing party to Right.
That's because Quebec doesn't take federal elections very seriously.

If you look at provincial parties, there is no equivalent of the federal Tories here. There are four political parties, none of which can be said to be socially conservative. There's no room for such a party here, except in elections that don't really matter.
     
     
  #18998  
Old Posted Jun 20, 2018, 1:19 AM
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It's only one riding and it's only a by-election. We'll talk again if most of the province flips to the Scheer-Cons.
If it happens, which it could, it would be for the flimsiest possible reasons, not because Scheer's platform (or Layton's platform in 2011) resonated with the Québécois.

Seems strange to people who take politics seriously, but it makes sense when you know the context.
     
     
  #18999  
Old Posted Jun 20, 2018, 2:26 AM
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Will pardons make any practical difference?
Yes, because it makes things like getting jobs or crossing international borders easier.
     
     
  #19000  
Old Posted Jun 20, 2018, 2:35 AM
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I wouldn`t put too much faith in these polls right after the Liberals got nearly wiped off the map in Ontario. Besides the Ford win in Ontario will probably help Trudeau in Ontario at the next election as Ontario has a flawless record of never having the same party in power at Queen`s Park and Ottawa at the same time.
I agree there is a high chance people in Ontario are mixing up the federal and provincial party's since the provincial election is still fresh in many people's minds or they are projecting their feelings of the provincial party onto the federal one.

On the flip side though Angus Reid released a poll recently as well showing almost the opposite with the Liberals 4 points ahead and Justin Trudeau also getting a major boost in approval due to the Trump tariff fight.

Liberal 36, Conservative 32, NDP 16, BQ 4, Green 9

Nanos had somewhat similar results with their 4 part weekly tracking polls (though the Greens are lower and NDP a bit higher):

Liberal 37, Conservative 33, NDP 20, BQ 4, Green 5
     
     
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