Under the Radar: Darkhorse small cities that could one day be very big

[TownGuy]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I haven't participated much in this thread...

I've noticed that the places that grow rapidly are usually served by a freeway. Anything along the outskirts (both inside and outside) of the GTA has the potential for rapid growth.

I did not realize that Clarington now has a population of over 92,000 (it contains Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle)

I can see places in extreme SW Ontario such as Amherstburg and Leamington becoming popular with retirees and growing rapidly due to climate, cheaper housing prices and not having to leave the province for Ontarians.

Port Hope and Cobourg are just outside the traditional GTA so they may become popular just for that reason and they are both along the 401.

Anywhere between Hwys 401 and 404 has the potential for rapid growth and especially if the Bradford bypass is built.

Yeah Clarington is going to explode in a big way. Already served by the 401 obviously and the 407 is currently being extended through the northern part of the area. Also GO has proposed multiple stations be built in Clarington.

In the case of Cobourg/Port Hope I think we're just right in the sweet spot to avoid becoming complete sprawlvilles. Close enough for steady sustained growth but far enough for it to not get out of hand. A lot of that depends on job creation in the eastern GTA because that is where commute is most feasible. Interestingly enough there are quite a few people who commute to downtown Toronto using VIA but I can't see that becoming a huge thing because of the costs associated. The trip is about an hour.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Hali87

I'm assuming that when places like Moncton (and Truro) refer to themselves as a hub, they mean in the geographic/transportation sense. Their histories and locations within the regional transportation networks support this. It's also safe to assume they didn't check dictionary.com when defining themselves as such.

To me it's implicit that when Moncton uses the term it's intending to suggest that its geographic centrality positions it as Maritime hub in a more literal way. Which of course they're free to do if they feel such a strategy is effective, just as I'm free to look askance at it. But I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

[Dougler306]

Not sure why regina is not considered in this poll. City has grown tremendously over the last few years and is still going strong. I would say regina and saskatoon will be the next medium size cities to jump into the larger 500k cities in the next 4-5 decades, saskatoon being the first to make the leap

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

To me it's implicit that when Moncton uses the term it's intending to suggest that its geographic centrality positions it as Maritime hub in a more literal way. Which of course they're free to do if they feel such a strategy is effective, just as I'm free to look askance at it. But I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

I don't know why you fail to see the value of a central location for the economic health of a community, at least for certain sectors of the economy such as transportation, distribution, retailing and commerce? This seems self evident.

Of course there are other sectors of the economy where a central location is less relevant (governmental, institutional, educational and military).

This sort of economic dichotomy in fact basically defines the essential differences between Halifax and Moncton.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by Dougler306

Not sure why regina is not considered in this poll. City has grown tremendously over the last few years and is still going strong. I would say regina and saskatoon will be the next medium size cities to jump into the larger 500k cities in the next 4-5 decades, saskatoon being the first to make the leap

I'd assume that Regina is already just too big to have been considered for this poll. If you look at the options, they're all smaller than Regina.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I don't know why you fail to see the value of a central location for the economic health of a community, at least for certain sectors of the economy such as transportation, distribution retailing and commerce? This seems self evident.

You can directly measure any aspect of the economy that benefits from the geographic location. You can say "Moncton is the regional leader in X, Y, or Z sector" and show the numbers to back it up, and show how costs, connectivity etc. are more competitive without even mentioning the reasons behind it. The issue is that people sometimes get it backwards and imply that certain things (like geography) provide an economic advantage without actually showing the outcomes that result from it. As you said, they treat the existence of economic benefits as being self evident rather than presenting evidence of economic benefits and offering the geographic location as an explanation.

[MolsonExport]

For Moncton to grow substantially, I suspect that the Maritimes as a whole would have to start growing substantially.

Kelowna...could be the next big thing. But my understanding is that much of the land is protected from urban development, and this puts a major constraint on industrial and residential potential. Perhaps things have changed since I lived in Kelowna area in the early 90s.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

For Moncton to grow substantially, I suspect that the Maritimes as a whole would have to start growing substantially.

Yes and no. Much of Moncton's recent growth has been despite NB's stagnation. There's been a pretty big trend between Southern NB growing and Northern NB declining and they're nearly mutually exclusive - that is to say, Moncton isn't growing because people from the North are moving there, it's growing for a multitude of different reasons. One could make the argument that the Halifax-Moncton-Fredericton corridor (which includes PEI by proxy) is the only area of growth in Atlantic Canada.

When looking at NB's numbers it's easy to see that the overall population has stagnated, but if you split it up a bit more the trends become pretty obvious:

1991:
Northern NB: 237,184
Southern NB: 486,716

2001:
Northern NB: 226,663
Southern NB: 502,835

2011:
Northern NB: 212,084
Southern NB: 539,087

2016:
Northern NB: 205,709
Southern NB: 541,397

The trend of the North emptying out will almost certainly increase over the next twenty years. Of that Southern NB growth Moncton represents roughly 60%.

[Loco101]

Just to maybe make it more interesting:

Which darkhorse smaller city will grow the most due to:

-employment opportunities

-immigration

-Indigenous population growth

-retirees moving to it

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Yes and no. Much of Moncton's recent growth has been despite NB's stagnation. There's been a pretty big trend between Southern NB growing and Northern NB declining and they're nearly mutually exclusive - that is to say, Moncton isn't growing because people from the North are moving there, it's growing for a multitude of different reasons. One could make the argument that the Halifax-Moncton-Fredericton corridor (which includes PEI by proxy) is the only area of growth in Atlantic Canada.

When looking at NB's numbers it's easy to see that the overall population has stagnated, but if you split it up a bit more the trends become pretty obvious:

1991:
Northern NB: 237,184
Southern NB: 486,716

2001:
Northern NB: 226,663
Southern NB: 502,835

2011:
Northern NB: 212,084
Southern NB: 539,087

2016:
Northern NB: 205,709
Southern NB: 541,397

The trend of the North emptying out will almost certainly increase over the next twenty years. Of that Southern NB growth Moncton represents roughly 60%.

Thanks for these statistics. These really show what is happening within a province. NB is rather like the obverse of Italy: the latter has a long stagnant/declining South and a relatively robust north.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Thanks for these statistics. These really show what is happening within a province. NB is rather like the obverse of Italy: the latter has a long stagnant/declining South and a relatively robust north.

Definitely similar. Northern NB (and rural NB in general) is the poster child for declining NB but there's been significant growth in the south, in particular in suburban Moncton and Fredericton. All three of the major cities are seeing good urban growth in their cores and a tightening of services to go along with it. It's a shame the province has to be split three ways on the urban centre front but at least they're all more-or-less progressing in a positive direction. This would be much more obvious if NB had a single major centre (like NS) as opposed to the three-headed monster its stuck with.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by JHikka

One could make the argument that the Halifax-Moncton-Fredericton corridor (which includes PEI by proxy) is the only area of growth in Atlantic Canada.

Achem...

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Achem...

Sorry; how's St. John's been since the price of oil dropped?

[SignalHillHiker]

Still growing. The exodus from rural NL ends up here before it heads West - and often maintains a place here while up away on the mainland. So we still have about another 250,000 to go before we shrink.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Sorry; how's St. John's been since the price of oil dropped?

City itself is still growing, but it isn't as explosive as it was before the price of oil dropped. We still have the advantage of being the only city in the province being worth moving to, so we get a lot of inner-provincial movement from rural areas. I suppose Halifax and Moncton may be similar in that regard. If oil rebounds to a profitable price for our offshore industry (about 80-90 bucks per barrel) then we may very well reach our 2008-2014 boom times again.

[DizzyEdge]

Airdrie's growth is ridiculous. If current 5 year average growth continued, in 10 years it would surpass Red Deer and Lethbridge

[Rollerstud98]

Only grew at 4.98% from April 2016 to April 2017. Has likely surpassed Medicine Hat and Grande Prairie this year. I think will take slightly more than 10 years but will catch and pass Red Deer and Lethbridge to become the 3rd largest city in the province pretty quick. Municipal census puts Airdrie at 64,922.

[DizzyEdge]

What's interesting about Airdrie of course is it doesn't *really* have a downtown. As late as the 1950s it was about about 3x6 blocks in size (the entire municipality, not the downtown) with a population 1000 people or less. Then in the 70s? or 80s it exploded, and rather than the tiny mainstreet of barely a block gradually expanding, instead they just built a shopping mall next door. Very curious to see if it gains proper downtown as it approaches 100,000 people.


my creation


"Downtown"

https://www.google.ca/maps/@51.29268...7i13312!8i6656

[dmuzika]

I've always thought Kamloops had the potential to be a bigger city; it seems to have more room to grow than Kelowna and has better highway and rail connections, which could better serve industrial and commercial growth. Whether it will actually happen is another story. Maybe a Spokane of the north?

[dmuzika]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

What's interesting about Airdrie of course is it doesn't *really* have a downtown. As late as the 1950s it was about about 3x6 blocks in size (the entire municipality, not the downtown) with a population 1000 people or less. Then in the 70s? or 80s it exploded, and rather than the tiny mainstreet of barely a block gradually expanding, instead they just built a shopping mall next door. Very curious to see if it gains proper downtown as it approaches 100,000 people.


my creation


"Downtown"

https://www.google.ca/maps/@51.29268...7i13312!8i6656

I think Airdrie's downtown will always be a small town centre. Surrey is only just getting a "downtown" and its around 500K.