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  #1  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2023, 2:25 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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Downtown/CBD employment

Trying to get some figures for Canadian cities. How many are employed downtown?

565,000 worked in downtown Toronto in 2022. That's about 14% of the workforce in Toronto-Hamilton-Oshawa.

https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/up...2-Bulletin.pdf
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  #2  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2023, 4:39 AM
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Calgary used to have downtown employment of 140,000 or so (I believe the Beltline was included in that number for "greater downtown").
I can't recall the source but IIRC it was roughly 120,000 in downtown, and 20,000 in the Beltline.

Currently however,

Downtown: 29-30% vacancy or roughly 13 million square feet of vacant office space

Beltline: 27% vacancy or roughly 2 million square feet of vacant office space

To put that in perspective downtown Edmonton has roughly 18.3 million square feet of total office space! (Downtown+Government area)

Source: Q3 2023 Colliers figures

My guesstimate for Calgary would be 100,000-105,000 today. Maybe you can find a current 2023 number more accurate than that.
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  #3  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2023, 4:10 PM
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There's also some secondary "centres" such as North York Centre which employs 34,000. The Toronto data I linked is for the city only. I'm trying to find figures for Mississauga City Centre.
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  #4  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2023, 4:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Wigs View Post
My guesstimate for Calgary would be 100,000-105,000 today. Maybe you can find a current 2023 number more accurate than that.
That would be a similar share to Toronto.
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  #5  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2023, 4:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Trying to get some figures for Canadian cities. How many are employed downtown?

565,000 worked in downtown Toronto in 2022. That's about 14% of the workforce in Toronto-Hamilton-Oshawa.

https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/up...2-Bulletin.pdf
This report is a bit old, using 2016 census figures as its latest source of employment, but it paints an insightful picture of where jobs were added or taken away between 2006 and 2016 in the GTA.

I think these trends continued into 2021, but basically downtown Toronto was really the only major employment centre that saw a significant increase in jobs - 86,000, to be exact, between 2006 and 2016.

The inner suburbs lost jobs, even as population and the total number of people employed obviously grew. Even if we don't have more recent data at our fingertips, you can see this indirectly through the value of commercial real estate in suburban office parks. An aging suburban office park, post-COVID/WFH, is almost worthless.

It's possible that the job losses in the suburbs reversed themselves, but my guess is that it's more low paying, blue collar employment in transportation and logistics, and those would go to new facilities on the edge of suburbia near highways, as opposed to higher paying white collar jobs in office parks in the inner suburbs.
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  #6  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2023, 6:09 PM
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The Toronto Employment Survey results Docere posted are likely the most accurate for the City of Toronto proper, though they do come with some limitations, and likely undercount total employment as it's based on visual inspection. That being said the benchmark year-over-year is good for trends.

Based on the latest the only Employment Centre that really grew was downtown. The inner-suburban Areas of Employment have mostly stabilized since pretty big losses started in the 90s. Between 2017-2022 they showed a 2% loss in employment, though actual manufacturing jobs are more or less equal to what they were in 2012. These areas have a bit more viability now due to location and cheap real estate to house non-traditional employment uses (wholesale retail, small-scale manufacturing, food processing, etc.). I suspect that some of the older employment areas in 905 suburbs are doing worse with the shift to big logistics facilities along highways - plus the property tax advantages they had in the early aughts aren't quite so pronounced now.
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  #7  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2023, 1:34 PM
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Pre-pandemic, I think Ottawa had 100k Downtown employees and 30 million square feet of office space. Nowadays, people (office workers) work downtown 2 to 3 days a week, and I'm sure some companies and Government Departments have gone 100% wfh.

Quite a few retailers and restaurants are only open Tuesday to Thursday as well now.
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  #8  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2023, 7:58 PM
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Relevant story out of Kelowna:

Mission Group postpones two Kelowna projects as market tightens
Projects shelved, staff members laid off after pre-leasing levels fall short
By Rob Gibson, Castanet | December 21, 2023, 11:00am

A decline in demand for office space in Kelowna has hit one of the largest real estate developers in the city.

Mission Group has shelved two future projects for the time being and let a handful of staff go. Rising costs and declining revenue are blamed for the postponement of two high-rise residential towers until conditions improve.

“Given the current market outlook impacting the entire development industry, Mission Group has decided to put two of our future projects on hold," said Mission Group CEO Jon Friesen in a statement to Castanet.

"These projects are downtown high-rise sites that have yet to move through the city approvals process and were originally planned to launch sometime in 2024. Market conditions have pushed that timeframe out."

The company did not specify which projects have been put on hold.

In a recent email to Mission Group staff, Friesen said pre-leasing levels at the Block office building have fallen short of original estimates.

In addition to shelving the two future projects, five staff members have been let go......


https://biv.com/article/2023/12/miss...arket-tightens
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  #9  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2023, 1:52 PM
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I'm really surprised we continue to see office projects go up in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. Has there been an unusual shift back to in-person work in those three cities?
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  #10  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2023, 2:40 PM
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I'm unaware of any office projects breaking ground in Toronto.

The projects under construction all started before the market burst and the current office market situation has little relevance to pre-leased office space. Tenants not landlords are on the line. The CIBC CEO has been very public demanding a return to in-person because CIBC is committed to a very large amount of space. nothing to do with synergy or productivity.

More people working downtown enhances the grandeur of the skyline. I'm still more of the opinion that dispersed employment is so much better than a high concentration in a small area with a metro wide catchment

Last edited by WhipperSnapper; Dec 22, 2023 at 2:51 PM.
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  #11  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2023, 3:33 PM
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Originally Posted by J.OT13 View Post
I'm really surprised we continue to see office projects go up in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. Has there been an unusual shift back to in-person work in those three cities?
There are no new office project in the pipeline in Montreal. And I doubt we will see one anytime soon.
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  #12  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2023, 3:48 PM
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Can't imagine any of the proposed office projects going through in Toronto anytime soon either. This should be an opportunity for employers to consolidate into newer spaces that are organized better than a full push for full return to office, but maybe that's wishful thinking. Can't see hybrid work going away for companies that want to attract talent.
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  #13  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2023, 4:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Martin Mtl View Post
There are no new office project in the pipeline in Montreal. And I doubt we will see one anytime soon.
So Tour de la Banque National is I guess the same kind of situation as what WhipperSnapper was describing in Toronto.
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  #14  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2023, 4:45 PM
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Originally Posted by J.OT13 View Post
So Tour de la Banque National is I guess the same kind of situation as what WhipperSnapper was describing in Toronto.
Here is an article about it for those who can read French. The boss says the Banque will be occupying the whole building.

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/20...-sera-pas-vide
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  #15  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2023, 4:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J.OT13 View Post
I'm really surprised we continue to see office projects go up in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. Has there been an unusual shift back to in-person work in those three cities?
Vancouver had extremely high prices and low vacancy about 5 years ago. A number of projects started that are in their final phases or recently complete. Nothing new on the horizon now though.
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  #16  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2023, 4:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
I'm still more of the opinion that dispersed employment is so much better than a high concentration in a small area with a metro wide catchment
There is the dispersal problem of needing N routes (anywhere to downtown) vs. N^2 (anywhere to anywhere). But you can also put a few nodes along rapid transit if you have that and then more people can live near work. There is also the 2 income couple problem. I assume this is bad in a metro like Dallas where, yes, there are millions of jobs, but they span 80 km or more.

In Halifax a number of commercial to residential conversions are happening, the "CBD" area (really just a part of downtown, the worst part for vibrancy) is going back to mixed use, and that's probably a lot better in the long run. Prior to the 1960's many people lived in mixed-use buildings there (3-6 floor buildings with tenements above or offices in some cases and shops below) but most were torn down in an attempt to impose single-use zoning. Employment there is somewhat concentrated downtown but really concentrated around the urban core (military base, shipyard, hospitals, universities) but the transit is mediocre and there's no single alignment that will cover the majority of these destinations.

1950's planners hated this:


Source
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  #17  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2023, 4:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Here is an article about it for those who can read French. The boss says the Banque will be occupying the whole building.

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/20...-sera-pas-vide
Not only will they occupy the whole building but they also rented the entire space in the office component of the Victoria sur le Parc building next door.
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  #18  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2023, 10:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
There is the dispersal problem of needing N routes (anywhere to downtown) vs. N^2 (anywhere to anywhere). But you can also put a few nodes along rapid transit if you have that and then more people can live near work. There is also the 2 income couple problem. I assume this is bad in a metro like Dallas where, yes, there are millions of jobs, but they span 80 km or more.

In Halifax a number of commercial to residential conversions are happening, the "CBD" area (really just a part of downtown, the worst part for vibrancy) is going back to mixed use, and that's probably a lot better in the long run. Prior to the 1960's many people lived in mixed-use buildings there (3-6 floor buildings with tenements above or offices in some cases and shops below) but most were torn down in an attempt to impose single-use zoning. Employment there is somewhat concentrated downtown but really concentrated around the urban core (military base, shipyard, hospitals, universities) but the transit is mediocre and there's no single alignment that will cover the majority of these destinations.

1950's planners hated this:


Source
No matter what, you need to invest in transit. Having everyone commute downtown maybe requires fewer routes however, they need to be the highest capacities which are the most expensive to build/maintain and they still require feeder routes.

You could probably get away with just the feeder routes for most situations with in a truly mixed use, mixed income urban area. Someone commuting daily across the city (anywhere to anywhere) would be their choice. The majority of people would live nearby their work.

The cities with the highest percentages of commuting cyclists are low rise to mid rise. People don't cram into 50 storey towers. Neither is the majority forced to pedal long distances through more privileged low and mid rise neighbourhoods to reach a commercial core. Their urban cores are as mixed use as they come.

Torontonians are aloof if they think a cycle track on Pharmacy Road is going to get much use.
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  #19  
Old Posted Dec 26, 2023, 2:25 PM
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Canadian Western Bank's HQ in Edmonton was planning on constructing a dedicated 16-storey office tower in the Ice District but recently the decision was made in October to instead move their offices to a to-be-renovated Manulife Place. I'm actually happy with this decision because constructing a new office tower would increase the already high vacancy rate and now a residential tower can be built as originally planned on the site in the Ice District. Reasons for not moving forward with the dedicated office tower were solely the market, which is what most othe major Canadian cities seem to be experiencing right now.
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  #20  
Old Posted Dec 26, 2023, 6:26 PM
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Jobs Downtown (2016 Census)

Toronto 503,575
Montreal 299,245
Vancouver 163,695
Calgary 137,030
Ottawa 124,865
Edmonton 92,735
Winnipeg 70,870
Quebec 54,405
Victoria 48,345
Halifax 48,295

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...021001-eng.htm
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