Quote:
Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker
As long as the federal Conservative Party doesn't win, I'm fine with the result.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, it depends on who is running. MP Nick Whalen in St. John's East is definitely vulnerable. He rode the red wave to barely defeat the NDP incumbent Jack Harris, 46.7% to 45.3%. In the previous three elections, Harris won with 70-75% of the vote. There is certainly no red wave this time, so if Harris runs, I expect he will win.
St. John's South-Mount Pearl has flipped between the Liberals and NDP for the last several elections. MP Seamus O'Regan is popular, much moreso than the separatist NDP incumbent he defeated ever was. So that one is probably safe.
Pre-Harper, both of these ridings (and their predecessors) were reliably blue. The current Conservative Party won't change that, but some future iteration certainly could. Fiscal conservatism and social liberalism or libertarianism is definitely what these ridings prefer.
For the rest, they will never go NDP. Ever. Under any circumstances. They could go Conservative if the local candidate is beloved enough, but that isn't likely.
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If I were to take a stab at the results for NL next election, I'd guess that Seamus O'Reagan will hold SJS-MP for the Liberals, and that St. John's North could flip back to the NDP with a strong candidate (heck, Jack Harris could win it back if he ran again). I think the days of a Conservative Party held St. John's are over, especially considering the large student population and how a rise in left-wing activism has come forth in the past ten years. I would bet that St. John's will primarily be an NDP stronghold in the future.
As for the rest of the province, safe bet to assume Liberal. Labrador could always go astray if a Conservative politician promised them the world. One interesting riding to watch would be Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. It's a new district only held by the extremely popular Judy Foote and her successor, but the districts that have preceeded it have flirted close to Conservative victory in recent times past. In 2006 Random-Burin-St. George's voted 40% for the CPC versus 45% for the incumbent Liberal, and Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls accounted for 40% CPC votes in both 2004 and 2006 elections. If anything is going to surprise flip, it'll be there, and a slight litmus test for the health of the CPC party in the province. West coast and south coast ridings are a sure lock for the Liberals, even if Hitler ran the Liberal party.