What is it like to come home to Canada?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by thewave46

New York and San Francisco of the 1970s were not nice cities, but they were creative spots for the young. New York and San Francisco of the 2020s are nicer, but the cost of getting in is so dear as to annihilate the creative energy of youth.

The New York and San Francisco of nowadays still have tons of cheap alternatives though; what's unusual about Canada is that housing basically *everywhere* is getting greatly inflated by the Scheme. The only places that are somewhat affordable are extremely rural -- in stark contrast to the situation south of the border.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So why don't they leave? I don't mean this is in a GenX vs Zoomer way but virtually everyone outside of the Native American population is here because life in their old country sucked for some reason so they left. Heck, even the "indigenous" population crossed the Bering Land Bridge because presumably life in East Asia at the time wasn't great.

I don't think that's out of the question at all. They most likely will.

They're still young, and probably have some optimism that things will get better. In a few years, once they're a bit older, and realize that things haven't bottomed out yet, we could potentially see a massive exodus of young Canadians looking for a brighter future somewhere else.

Bali and Portugal seem to be the main recipients of disenfranchised North Americans these days. I know six people from my Shanghai days that returned home, and then all bounced to Bali within a year.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I wonder if people will start leaving cities, some sort of Youth Flight.

There's recently been some evidence (at least in the US) that millennials are starting to skip the suburbs and move to exurbs if they have the ability (work flexibility) to do so. This is being driven by affordability and financial considerations. The oldest millennials are now in their early 40s. If they haven't started building equity, leaving a city might be the only way.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by giallo

I don't think that's out of the question at all. They most likely will.

I think it's a question of which comes first: backlash or exodus.

Also, it really depends on one's situation. It's hard to even save up enough to leave if you live in Vancouver. This is why it's usually the most talented who flee first. They have options. I'm always curious what will happen to consumer services and healthcare in the Lower Mainland in some years. Who wants to go through years of med school, take on half a million in debt and then live in a tiny condo?

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by giallo

They most likely will.

They're still young, and probably have some optimism that things will get better. Once they get a bit older, and realize that things haven't bottomed out yet, we could potentially see a massive exodus of young Canadians looking for a brighter future somewhere else.

Bali and Portugal seem to be the main recipients of disenfranchised North Americans these days. I know six people from my Shanghai days that returned home, and then bounced to Bali within a year.

I don't think we should discount this, but I also wonder: to where? The U.S. has always been a focus of Canadian brain drains, but it's dealing with many of the same cost-of-living pressures as Canada in its most desirable locations. (Though as pointed out it has far more bargain locales than Canada does.) There is a highly mobile class of young professionals who can choose from a menu of trendy digital nomad locales, but that demographic doesn't reflect the majority of younger Canadians. And many of those locations don't offer strong economic prospects intrinsically, and are mostly desirable due to being cheap.

I actually do think that we'll see more young Canadians continually dispersing to smaller Canadian communities before flocking to places like Lisbon in huge numbers--though I do think that will happen (and is happening) to a lesser degree.

I think there will have to come a real estate reckoning at some point, at which prices so outstrip incomes that a market correction is inevitable, and the game changes. Maybe it will be a dramatic correction or a gradual stagnation/price reversal, but it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which prices continue to inflate for another generation as they have since 2000.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I think there will have to come a real estate reckoning at some point, at which prices so outstrip incomes that a market correction is inevitable, and the game changes. Maybe it will be a dramatic correction or a gradual stagnation/price reversal, but it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which prices continue to inflate for another generation as they have since 2000.

I agree that prices just can't continue to diverge from local incomes as they've been doing for a while now, but I disagree with you on the realism of a long-term real estate stabilization at prices that are out of reach of locals. There are billions of suckers out there who aren't yet competing for a roof over their head in Canada, and with climate change we're apparently going to see even more migration pressure than we currently do.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by giallo

I don't think that's out of the question at all. They most likely will.

They're still young, and probably have some optimism that things will get better. In a few years, once they're a bit older, and realize that things haven't bottomed out yet, we could potentially see a massive exodus of young Canadians looking for a brighter future somewhere else.

Bali and Portugal seem to be the main recipients of disenfranchised North Americans these days. I know six people from my Shanghai days that returned home, and then all bounced to Bali within a year.

Portugal maybe but Bali? Seems like a great spot for a temporary expat remote work gig, but putting down roots there long-term?

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by lio45

I agree that prices just can't continue to diverge from local incomes as they've been doing for a while now, but I disagree with you on the realism of a long-term real estate stabilization at prices that are out of reach of locals. There are billions of suckers out there who aren't yet competing for a roof over their head in Canada, and with climate change we're apparently going to see even more migration pressure than we currently do.

Hmm, interesting point. Canada as a haven for wealthy people escaping more climate-vulnerable locations? I guess it's going to be an interesting few decades coming up, anyway.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

with climate change we're apparently going to see even more migration pressure than we currently do.

This is what scares the BeJesus out of me. The subcontinent is already insufferably hot, and this will only get worse with further global warming. With the Himalayas to the north, there is just no place for the heat to escape to, and the surrounding Indian Ocean provides for a lot of humidity. There will be some places in the subcontinent that will be unlivable. Add in the fact that Bangladesh is already a swamp, and could be largely submerged with even a metre of sea level rise, and you could see the human migration of hundreds of millions of people. A large portion of eastern China is also vulnerable to sea level rise.

People will be beating on the doors of Canada.

[Truenorth00]

Migration pressure isn't a real threat for Canada. We've got large oceans keeping us away from most of them. We may actually be able to be pickier with immigrants if the US is suffering more natural disasters.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

That's because they're both professional contrarians whose entire professional persona is about getting under people's skins, not providing reporting with any kind of analysis, depth or intelligence.

Technically they're commentators and not really journalists doing factual reporting. Their role is to comment and provoke discussion and thought on a range of issues. They're not that different from a bunch of others of various stripes. Think of Shree Pandakar in the Toronto Star, for example.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think it's a question of which comes first: backlash or exodus.

Also, it really depends on one's situation. It's hard to even save up enough to leave if you live in Vancouver. This is why it's usually the most talented who flee first. They have options. I'm always curious what will happen to consumer services and healthcare in the Lower Mainland in some years. Who wants to go through years of med school, take on half a million in debt and then live in a tiny condo?

Your broader point might stand but I think doctors are a lot better paid than you imagine. Vancouver is a very desirable place for higher earners still. While even specialist doctors might not be able to buy in West Van or Forest Hill anymore than can certainly buy in very nice neighbourhoods. And yeah $400k a year lets you live a king in Red Deer or Brandon but then you've got to live in Red Deer or Brandon.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Hmm, interesting point. Canada as a haven for wealthy people escaping more climate-vulnerable locations? I guess it's going to be an interesting few decades coming up, anyway.

Residential real estate in Canada is such a favored asset, taxation-wise, that it's been attracting international attention for a while now. This is a self-perpetuating phenomenon. Makes lot of sense for multimillionaires in China or India who want a safe investment to convert their capital into residential real estate in Vancouver or Toronto. The fact that it's safe from climate change is a separate factor; both of them combined make Canadian real estate a pretty attractive choice.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Portugal maybe but Bali? Seems like a great spot for a temporary expat remote work gig, but putting down roots there long-term?

I don't think anyone is thinking long term - they're just escaping the high cost of living in NA atm. You can still get a nice little bungalow with a pool for around $1000USD in Bali. Prices are rising rapidly though. Same as Lisbon.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This is what scares the BeJesus out of me. The subcontinent is already insufferably hot, and this will only get worse with further global warming. With the Himalayas to the north, there is just no place for the heat to escape to, and the surrounding Indian Ocean provides for a lot of humidity. There will be some places in the subcontinent that will be unlivable. Add in the fact that Bangladesh is already a swamp, and could be largely submerged with even a metre of sea level rise, and you could see the human migration of hundreds of millions of people. A large portion of eastern China is also vulnerable to sea level rise.

People will be beating on the doors of Canada.

The humidex in Rio the other day was around 63ºC (143ºF). São Paulo and Rio are currently having their hottest March in recorded history.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Migration pressure isn't a real threat for Canada. We've got large oceans keeping us away from most of them.

My point wasn't that they would invade us without our government's approval, my point was that there's a huge reservoir of Fresh New Suckers out there AND that climate change will make it even greater.

In other words, the Ponzi Scheme of Great Landed Gentry Enrichment might be less sustainable if it weren't for the lucky fact that climate change will increase migration pressure in a lot of the world.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I don't think we should discount this, but I also wonder: to where? The U.S. has always been a focus of Canadian brain drains, but it's dealing with many of the same cost-of-living pressures as Canada in its most desirable locations. (Though as pointed out it has far more bargain locales than Canada does.) There is a highly mobile class of young professionals who can choose from a menu of trendy digital nomad locales, but that demographic doesn't reflect the majority of younger Canadians. And many of those locations don't offer strong economic prospects intrinsically, and are mostly desirable due to being cheap.

I actually do think that we'll see more young Canadians continually dispersing to smaller Canadian communities before flocking to places like Lisbon in huge numbers--though I do think that will happen (and is happening) to a lesser degree.

I think there will have to come a real estate reckoning at some point, at which prices so outstrip incomes that a market correction is inevitable, and the game changes. Maybe it will be a dramatic correction or a gradual stagnation/price reversal, but it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which prices continue to inflate for another generation as they have since 2000.

The problem is that you can't count on market corrections doing anything making housing affordable. This isn't about asset trading, but about a lack of supply for the people requiring a place to live. Until there is a correction in supply or a correction in population, housing is going to be hard to come by.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This is what scares the BeJesus out of me. The subcontinent is already insufferably hot, and this will only get worse with further global warming. With the Himalayas to the north, there is just no place for the heat to escape to, and the surrounding Indian Ocean provides for a lot of humidity. There will be some places in the subcontinent that will be unlivable. Add in the fact that Bangladesh is already a swamp, and could be largely submerged with even a metre of sea level rise, and you could see the human migration of hundreds of millions of people. A large portion of eastern China is also vulnerable to sea level rise.

People will be beating on the doors of Canada.

Since you're aware of this, I assume you're currently working to convince your kids to load up on (relatively cheap for now) Moncton and Saint-John real estate while it's still time?

[niwell]

Originally Posted by giallo

I don't think anyone is thinking long term - they're just escaping the high cost of living in NA atm. You can still get a nice little bungalow with a pool for around $1000USD in Bali. Prices are rising rapidly though. Same as Lisbon.

I have a friend living in Bali for what was intended as a year. It's been going on 7 now, including COVID times when he decided to stay (not a great time there!). He mentioned the influx of expats post-COVID and as a result moved to a smaller village where things are much cheaper than increasingly obnoxious tourist spots. He's a freelance photographer/videographer and manages to live a decent lifestyle on that. Problem is he's pretty much priced out of coming home unless his recent film gets the funding he expected (his previous documentary received a ton of funding but that tap is drying up globally) - it's too expensive otherwise.

[Acajack]

Since (a) the inflow of people (aka "fresh new suckers" according to some) is unlikely to be reduced dramatically by any political party likely to form government between now and 2030, and (b) it's unclear if or when in the future the level of new housing construction can ever meet demand caused by the population increase...

It's a safe bet that properties will at an absolute minimum retain their current values, even as inflated as they seem to us.

My bet is that we are going to see a number of larger properties (like 4-5 bedroom SFHs) converted to lodging for multiple people not necessarily from the same family. Either with or without proper authorization. This is already happened in a place like Brampton to some degree, so I expect it will spread to my neighbourhood and yours eventually.

This will at least allow the equity of property owners to be maintained, though it remains to be seen what the effect will be on neighbourhoods and services.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by giallo

I don't think that's out of the question at all. They most likely will.

They're still young, and probably have some optimism that things will get better. In a few years, once they're a bit older, and realize that things haven't bottomed out yet, we could potentially see a massive exodus of young Canadians looking for a brighter future somewhere else.

Bali and Portugal seem to be the main recipients of disenfranchised North Americans these days. I know six people from my Shanghai days that returned home, and then all bounced to Bali within a year.

Yes, thanks for not taking it the wrong way. That's exactly what I meant. I guess one of the more stable South American countries might be another low cost option but as others have mentioned they have issues too.