Winnipeg Population Growth Estimates

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by ILYR

Iceland's total population is 320,000 people. I very much doubt that immigration from Iceland will have a hugh effect on Manitoba's population. Even with their economy in big trouble right now there will not be a mass exodus. Perhaps 1 or 2 %, which would mean 6400 people. And of that, only a percentage would come to Manitoba. So realistically Manitoba may gain a 1000 or so people from Iceland ... which are entirely welcome.

I'm not so sure about that. Manitoba has the largest ethnic Icelandic population in the world, and the Manitoba Government seems to be encouraging Icelandic immigration. I don't think we should expect a massive influx of Icelanders, but 5,000 people or more Icelandic immigrants in Winnipeg and the Interlake, over a ten year period, is not unrealistic.

[Jets4Life]

Trip Could Spark Huge Influx of Icelanders
Trip could spark huge influx of Icelanders

By: Mia Rabson
Winnipeg Free Press
13/03/2009 1:00 AM

OTTAWA -- Manitoba Immigration Minister Nancy Allan is back from a whirlwind working visit to Iceland and several hundred Icelanders might not be far behind her. Allan spent several days in the capital of Reykjavik last week putting the final touches on a special immigration initiative to connect unemployed Icelanders with jobs in Manitoba.

The program was conceived after a significant number of inquiries were made via the Icelandic embassy and consulate in Ottawa and Winnipeg, and directly to businesses and officials in Gimli, the unofficial Icelandic capital of Canada. Over 30,000 people of Icelandic descent now live in Manitoba, the largest population of Icelanders outside of Iceland itself.

Allan said there was so much interest generated by her visit, the Canadian embassy was overwhelmed. "They already added extra staff to handle the inquiries," she said. The embassy is hosting a seminar for interested applicants today which will be broadcast live on the Internet via the website sjonvarp.khi. It is at 9 a.m. Winnipeg time, 3 p.m. Iceland time.

Between 200 and 300 people are expected at the seminar. Allan said there will be a much better understanding of how many people are truly interested after it takes place. Iceland's department of labour will help screen the applicants, who, if approved, will be admitted to Canada as temporary foreign workers. If they choose to stay in Manitoba, they can eventually apply for permanent immigration status through the Manitoba provincial nominee program.

Allan said she was charmed by both the city architecture and the landscape in Iceland but said it's clear the country is going through a rough patch. Unemployment has soared, banks are failing and the government itself was forced to declare bankruptcy in October. Economists predict the Icelandic economy will shrink by 10 per cent this year and unemployment will top 10 per cent. In the fall, Iceland's jobless rate was below two per cent.

It's led to vast social and political instability, including widespread protests that saw thousands of Icelanders descend on the national parliament buildings, resulting in clashes with police and the resignation of the president. Allan said the parliament buildings -- the oldest in the world -- still bear scars from the protests, with broken windows and boarded-up doorways. There are vacant storefronts and idle construction cranes all over Reykjavik.

Construction is one of the industries Manitoba is targeting, along with information technology and finance, said Allan. Manitoba Conservative Leader Hugh McFadyen praised the initiative, saying it will help grow the Manitoba population for the long term. "This can be nothing but good news," said McFadyen.

Allan has received some criticism for going after foreign workers when Canadians are being laid off all over the place. She said there is no specific program to connect unemployed workers from other provinces with Manitoba, but noted they do not need to go through an immigration process.

"We encourage people from outside of Manitoba, if they want to come here, to come," she said.

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca

source: http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.or...position=92:90


---------------------------------

This is a Free Press article dating back to March. It's interesting enough in itself, but I will try to locate any more recent articles about this initiative.

[Boreal]

That was a while ago. There has recently been a number of holdups for migrating Icelanders resulting in very, very few newcomers from that part of the world.

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by Boreal

That was a while ago. There has recently been a number of holdups for migrating Icelanders resulting in very, very few newcomers from that part of the world.

What kind of holdups?

[Biff]

Not specifically Winnipeg but we all know where about 80% of these people end up. So in rough numbers Winnipeg grew last year by approx 13,000+ people.


Manitoba News Release
............................................................
March 25, 2010

MANITOBA'S POPULATION GROWTH IN 2009 BEST IN NEARLY 40 YEARS: BJORNSON
- - -
Statistics Canada says Fourth-quarter Growth is Third Best in Country

Manitoba has achieved its best population growth rate in nearly 40 years, Entrepreneurship, Training and Trade Minister Peter Bjornson announced today.

"People from around the globe are clearly learning that Manitoba is a great place to live, work and raise a family," Bjornson said.

According to Statistics Canada, Manitoba's population reached 1,229,000 people in 2009, an increase of 16,400 people over the previous year.

Bjornson said Manitoba's population increase last year of 1.36 per cent last year is the best since 1971 and builds on a decade-long trend of positive population growth.

In the past 10 years, Manitoba has grown by nearly 90,000 people. That is roughly equivalent to the populations of Brandon, Thompson, Dauphin, and Portage la Prairie combined and more than double the population increase over the previous decade.

In addition, Manitoba's fourth-quarter growth rate of 0.23 per cent was the third-best provincial growth rate in the country and better than the national average of 0.17 per cent.

Much of the population increase has been driven by immigration from other countries, due in a large part to the success of Manitoba's Provincial Nominee Program, the minister said.

"Our Provincial Nominee Program is ensuring that people from around the world can bring their skills to our great province and make it even better," said Bjornson.

[RTD]

It would be nice to see a breakdown of each city and town's population growth/decrease to see ultimately which areas of the province are "booming" and which are "busting".

[dennis]

^That will happen in the 2011 census. Although I believe Alberta does their own provincial census more frequently.

[RTD]

Originally Posted by dennis

^That will happen in the 2011 census.

Are you referring to another federal census? If so, then we won't likely know that information until something like 2014. There is just way too much lag time between when censuses are taken and when the are released. Manitoba should have it's own provincial census like Alberta does.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by RTD

Manitoba should have it's own provincial census like Alberta does.

The government itself has an idea of how many people live where based on the documents that they issue. Other than that, I don't see the need to spend money on such a thing, other than curiosity.

[dennis]

I think the counts are done this year, and the results are usually released the following year.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re.../index-eng.cfm

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by RTD

Are you referring to another federal census? If so, then we won't likely know that information until something like 2014. There is just way too much lag time between when censuses are taken and when the are released. Manitoba should have it's own provincial census like Alberta does.

Alberta does not initiate any kind of provincial census. That said, a number of municipalities, generally the larger urban centres, have yearly censuses. They really can't be used for proper comparisons due to diverging methodologies and the lack of counting in rural areas and small towns.

[mike474]

Originally Posted by dennis

I think the counts are done this year, and the results are usually released the following year.

I don't think that is correct unless they've changed something. If I recall correctly the 2006 census was in May and the info (or at least the community profiles online) was available about a year later. I might be wrong though.

[Biff]

.....again if you do basic math on the figure below that the Province will grow by 220,000 people by the year 2020 - approx 70% go to the greater Winnipeg area = 154,000. So by 2020 if you figure the Winnipeg area already has 750,000 + 150,000 = 900,000 in ten years.

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Preschoolers to help boost population
Manitoba to be home to 1.4M folks by 2020

By: Larry Kusch

30/03/2010 1:00 AM | Comments: 0

MANITOBA is projected to have 1.4 million people by 2020 -- 220,000 more than in 2009 -- due in part to a surprisingly large increase in preschool children.

Last year, Manitoba enjoyed its highest rate of population growth -- 1.4 per cent or 16,400 people -- since at least 1971.

But the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, in a report to be released today, predicts even higher growth in 2010 and expects sustained high population growth, averaging 1.6 per cent, over the next 11 years.

Immigration will continue to play a lead role in Manitoba's increasing population in the years ahead, the bureau predicts.

Last year, Manitoba had a net gain of nearly 12,000 people from other countries, while its 15,839 births were the highest since 1995. High immigration, a fairly high fertility rate and relatively low net losses to other provinces are expected to spur growth well into the next decade, said Wilf Falk, chief of the statistics bureau.

The one thing that might slow down this growth is a shortage of housing, he said. When Manitoba was losing 3,000 to 8,000 people a year to other provinces, immigrants were essentially filling the vacated homes. But now that the province is only expected to lose about 1,500 a year to other provinces, there will be more demand for housing.

"What comes first? Do we build the housing and then the people come or do we build the housing after the people come?" Falk said Monday. "If we don't have the housing built, that may retard our ability to bring in these individuals."

Population projections are valuable to government in setting policies regarding health, education, labour participation, services to seniors, and a host of other issues.

Businesses use such figures to determine whether there will be shortages of workers and what products might be hot down the road.

The 82-page study looks as far ahead as 2041, when Manitoba is projected to have nearly two million people.

However, it's difficult to make accurate predictions that far into the future -- more reliable is looking ahead one decade to 2020.

Provincial officials believe the number of preschoolers (age 4 and under) will rise nearly 28 per cent between now and 2020. The only faster-growing group will be those 65 and over.

Even there, Falk said, the news is encouraging.

While the number of seniors will grow by 34.4 per cent in the next 11 years, the largest growth will be within those aged 65 to 74, while the percentage of those 75 to 84 years old will drop and the proportion 85 and over will remain constant.

"There have been stories that they're healthier, on average, than the previous seniors," Falk said, of the so-called "young seniors."

"So if that is true, then maybe their attachment to the health-care system may be less than their predecessors."

Given that the percentage of older seniors will drop or stay the same, he added, "then maybe some of these predictions of doom and gloom may not be as bad for Manitoba."

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca

What to expect, people

Here is a sneak peek at what Manitoba will look like on the province's 150th birthday in 2020:

Population is expected to be about 1.44 million, an increase of 221,000 since 2009.

Manitobans should be younger on average than today. The median age will be 37.5 years, down from 37.8 years in 2009.

The preschool population, aged 0 to 4, is projected to increase by 21,000, or 27.8 per cent, from 2009 to 2020.

The school-age population will rise 15.6 per cent or by nearly 33,000. However, within this group, those in Grade 10 to 12 will only increase by about 3,800 people or 3.6 per cent from 2009.

Those aged 18 to 24 should also see one of the lowest increases over the 11-year period -- 0.5 per cent a year -- or a total growth of only 6,000 people.

The potential labour force, aged 15 to 64, is expected to grow by 13.4 per cent compared with 2009.

The number of people 65 and over is expected to increase by some 58,000 individuals -- or 34.4 per cent -- from 2009.

There will be more older males than in the past as male life expectancy rises. In 2020, the ratio of 70-plus females to 70-plus males will be about 1.25 to one, compared with 1.38 to one in 2009.

-- Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition March 30, 2010 A4

[JayM]

2011 City Estimate
City of Winnipeg - 689,200
Winnipeg CMA -759,100
source

[Boreal]

That 759,000 or so rough guess for 2011 is fairly conservative. We were at 742,000 or so in 2009, with excellent numbers for 09/10 in-migration, that would suggest that we are already at ~750,000+ (if I'm interpreting this properly), suggesting that growth trends would have to peter off substantially for us to not hit ~760,000+ for 2011. Not to mention that estimate is to July 1st 2011. We aren't even at July 1st 2010, and already over 750,000 I believe (correct?). I would imagine ~765,000+ is roughly to be expected by July 1st 2011. Essentially, that table shows Winnipeg's population (CMA) only increasing by 7,000 people a year, which is roughly what, ~40% or less of all migrants coming to Manitoba based on recent migration numbers. That seems obscure. Even an estimate of 60% of all migrants coming to Manitoba, ending up in Winnipeg could be considered a low ball figure.

[bomberguy]

Anyone know Steinbachs population?

[JayM]

Manitoba Cities & CMA/CA Population Estimates for 2011

*Numbers subject to housing and rentals & local economy.
image source by me, numbers by 2006 census

[ILYR]

Just a quick graph to emphasize the increased growth starting around 2000. Note how stagnant it was prior to that. So Winnipeg and Manitoba have had some good sustained growth for 10 years now and should continue over the next few years.

[Biff]

It would be nice to see Brandon upwards of 100,000. I know, it has a long way to go though.

[North of 49]

That I would like to see too. another city with critical mass....Close enough for a day drive but far enough to make it worthwhile....

wonder by the end of 2011 Manitoba will have accomplished 20000 immigrants arriving in one year, or is that wishful thinking.

hopefully there are plenty of well paying jobs to help out.