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[NYC4Life]

This is an exciting time to love NYC skyscrapers.

[NYguy]

Originally Posted by STERNyc

Not to be a downer but other than the WTC
none of the projects NYGUY posted are going to get underway for at least another decade.

I wouldn't go that far, though the handful of WTC towers should be enough at the moment. There are
other developments I left out because we don't really have renderings, even preliminary (the railyards, hotel penn, etc.).

As far as these proposals go:



1. The WPC - developers say they have about 18 months to sign the amount of leases needed (about a third)
to start construction. Likely the first of the "four corners" towers. I look to 2010 for a start.

2. Manhattan West - Brookfield won't start anything without signing a tenant, but they could do that
in a relatively short amount of time. With no major office space under construction in Midtown, it won't
take a decade for a major space crunch to make these towers very attractive.

3. Sherwood's massive office tower is just one of two options for that site (the other being hotel).
One of the so called "four corners" towers, any one tower could jumpstart the others. They will likely
wait to see what movement happens on the other towers before making a decision.

4. The fantastic Tower Verre was planned for a 2009 start, but we'll see how the approval process along with financing
affects this one. A decade? I wouldn't be surprised if it were pushed back a year or two, but not a decade.

5. The Girasole - like the WPC is planned to rise above the new 34th Street subway station. Work progresses
on that station (see the Girasole thread) but I'm hoping a delay will lead to a redesign of this one, also one of the
"four corners" towers.

6. Tower 2 - A 2013 to 2014 completion.

7. Tower 3 - Blasting continues on site. A 2013 to 2014 completion.

8. Freedom Tower - A 2013 completion.

____________________________

Not as bleak an outlook as you would think.

[NYguy]

The "four corners" of the Hudson Yards came about because it will be the new "intersection" of 34th Street and the new
Hudson Boulevard. You wouldn't know it because it's not the most glamourous part of the Hudson Yards redevelopment,
but the City has been quietly making progress on the new boulevard - another key to development there.
This intersection will also be the new terminus of the 7 Line, making these towers the closest to public transit.

A look at the Hudson Yards zoning around the planned boulevard, and intersection...

Site 705 A: World Product Centre
Site 705 B: no proposal
Site 706 A: The Girasole
Site 706 B: Sherwood Properties development

Sites and zoning for commercial development:

___

[STERNyc]

NYGUY its wishful thinking that any of these projects will go forward. The finance sector which is based in NYC and one of its strongest driving forces has all but collapsed. GS survived, Chase and Citicorp are in the gutter, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and AIG are shot. There's no longer hedge funds to lease premium space as they were 5 years ago. Times Square Plaza is almost finished and has zero tenants, tenants at the recently completed former Verizon Building on Bryant Park that signed on when times were good are rushing to back out of their leases. And we're no where near the bottom, the auto companies haven't collapsed yet, no one has purchased our most recent 700 billion debt yet, the sure to be awful holiday shopping numbers haven't been released yet, and about half the government subsidized modified mortgages that are still expected to default, haven't yet. That's the most important reason why other than the WTC none of these projects will go forward, then there's the financing issue. Lenders are in disarray, they're being crippled by foreclosure costs and the fact that the homes they own have a market value half the value of the mortgage, no one will buy their notes. Even if a developer came to a lender with a building pre-sold 100% they would be unable to finance it because they simply don't have the money for several hundred million dollar projects right now. And last but not least, many of these projects are in Hudson Yards, with MTAs doomsday budget and their mismanagement and subsequent dire straits I would not expect the 7 itself to be done anytime soon.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by STERNyc

NYGUY its wishful thinking that any of these projects will go forward.

There are currently over well 150 highrises U/C in NYC, and this has been the strongest year for building permits in NYC since the early 1960's.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

The finance sector which is based in NYC and one of its strongest driving forces has all but collapsed.

What are you talking about? The GLOBAL capital markets are temporarily frozen, which is a totally different issue. You claim this will affect things getting built 10 years from now, when nobody knows what the climate will be 10 weeks from now. Everyone (except for you apparently) knows that at some point, credit will again become available, and it will be at some point in 2009.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

GS survived, Chase and Citicorp are in the gutter, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and AIG are shot.

This is all wrong. Do you even know any of these firms and what they do?

Chase is easily the strongest bank in the world right now. Dimon is the world's #1 dealmaker. Citi has tons of cash. Morgan Stanley, GS are fine under the circumstances. AIG is saved. Lehman is Barclay's.

More important, the investor returns from financial services have absolutely nothing to to do with this project, which is MEDICAL OFFICE SPACE.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

There's no longer hedge funds to lease premium space as they were 5 years ago.

Actually, many hedge funds are doing quite fine and have benefitted from the crisis, though I don't know why that's relevant for MEDICAL OFFICE SPACE.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

Times Square Plaza is almost finished and has zero tenants

It's a spec building. That's the point. Spec buildings rarely have tenants until after they are completed.

You do know that Manhattan has the lowest commercial vacancy rate in the U.S., right? If your sage prediction is that no building can be built for 10 years in Manhattan, what's your prediction for the rest of the world? 100 years with nothing built?

Originally Posted by STERNyc

tenants at the recently completed former Verizon Building on Bryant Park that signed on when times were good are rushing to back out of their leases.

Yeah, because they paid $125 a foot, when the market is $85 a foot. Tough luck for the owners. Rents go up and they go down. So what?

Originally Posted by STERNyc

And we're no where near the bottom, the auto companies haven't collapsed yet,

Based on your embarassing lack of knowledge of financial markets, your prediction of the market botton is laughable, considering that even William Buffett wouldn't claim to predict the bottom.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

the auto companies haven't collapsed

They won't, and remind we when Detroit moved to New York?

Originally Posted by STERNyc

And last but not least, many of these projects are in Hudson Yards, with MTAs doomsday budget and their mismanagement and subsequent dire straits I would not expect the 7 itself to be done anytime soon.

The 7 train is 100% financed, and is NOT being built by the MTA. It's a city project. The MTA is a state agency.

Even sillier, you mention the MTA BUDGET which is totally different from the MTA CAPITAL PLAN.

Funds for MTA expansion projects like the Second Avenue Subway are 100% separate from funds for daily operations. The current issue with the MTA is a reliable additional funding source for daily operations, NOT the capital plan.

[STERNyc]

Pick up a newspaper. I'm willing to bet you have no business education and that your field of work isnt in the real estate industry, I'm also willing to bet that other than the WTC no other project over 1000 feet will go forward in NYC for atleast another decade.

[Antares41]

There just so much "uncertainty" and "lack of disclosure" by the financial sector, that I can't see how anyone can predict how building construction will proceed in NYC. Hell we don't even know what institutions are in trouble until after the fact.

That what makes broad generalizations inherently very risky.

For certain the "credit crunch" is going to result in some building not seeing one ounce of concrete or pound of steel. And, this situation is not resolving itself even with some portion of the 700 billion being dole to financial institution.

Each building has to be looked at on a "case by case" basis. Frankly, I am surprised that more building sites in Manhattan have not cease operations.

[STERNyc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There are currently over well 150 highrises U/C in NYC, and this has been the strongest year for building permits in NYC since the early 1960's.

You don't have a strong understanding of time. All of which started before the current crisis, construction is a several year process. That's what happens during a bubble. It's popped and since the crisis there has been zero construction on projects over 100 million. 50 West Street was about to start construction and had financing in place, now its impossible to find financing and it won't go forward. Extell's 10th avenue tower, Extell's 57th Street Tower, the Drake, and countless other holes around Manhattan that aren't and won't go forward for awhile.

Originally Posted by Crawford

What are you talking about? The GLOBAL capital markets are temporarily frozen, which is a totally different issue. You claim this will affect things getting built 10 years from now, when nobody knows what the climate will be 10 weeks from now. Everyone (except for you apparently) knows that at some point, credit will again become available, and it will be at some point in 2009.

If you read my post I said financing was secondary. Yes financing will open back up but it won't matter because nobody is going to be building in this economy. Financing will no longer be given for big projects without a large prior commitment, there will be a glut of office space and luxury condominiums and no demand and commitments for new ones for awhile. It'll be the late 1970's to early 1980's, and 1989-1999 all over again.

This is all wrong. Do you even know any of these firms and what they do?

Chase is easily the strongest bank in the world right now. Dimon is the world's #1 dealmaker. Citi has tons of cash. Morgan Stanley, GS are fine under the circumstances. AIG is saved. Lehman is Barclay's.

More important, the investor returns from financial services have absolutely nothing to to do with this project, which is MEDICAL OFFICE SPACE.

Chase is so strong that there stock is lowest its been in 6 years. If Citigroup doesnt get bailed out it will go bankrupt. I know I'm talking to a genuine idiot when you say Morgan Stanley, AIG, and Lehman is fine, tell this to the thousands of employees they've had to lay off they'll be interested to hear.

Actually, many hedge funds are doing quite fine and have benefitted from the crisis, though I don't know why that's relevant for MEDICAL OFFICE SPACE.

Hedge funds have gone the way of the junkbond brokerages. And the demand for medical office space is so high that Extell doesn't have a single commitment.

It's a spec building. That's the point. Spec buildings rarely have tenants until after they are completed.

Actually that's not true. The last spec building that didn't have a tenant at completion was 2 NY Plaza that spelled doom for its developer.

You do know that Manhattan has the lowest commercial vacancy rate in the U.S., right? If your sage prediction is that no building can be built for 10 years in Manhattan, what's your prediction for the rest of the world? 100 years with nothing built?

Its about 8% which is about 30% more than it was last year and as I predicted things are going to get alot worse, we have not reached the bottom yet. As for the rest of the world, I said nothing about 100 years but yes this economic crisis has effected the whole world and projects throughout the world have been stopped or put on hold because of it.

Yeah, because they paid $125 a foot, when the market is $85 a foot. Tough luck for the owners. Rents go up and they go down. So what?

So we have an empty tower charging about 30% less, and a developer unable to pay its financiers.

Based on your embarassing lack of knowledge of financial markets, your prediction of the market botton is laughable, considering that even William Buffett wouldn't claim to predict the bottom.

Ofcourse not when his company relies mostly on equity capital.

They won't, and remind we when Detroit moved to New York?

Sure the loss of tens of thousands of jobs for one of the last true manufacturing industries in the United States won't have an effect on NYC. And even if the government bails them out like they do with everything else it won't be a solution, rather an option to delay the inevitable, the American auto industry produces a product noone wants, and without a complete overhaul their downfall is inevitable.

The 7 train is 100% financed, and is NOT being built by the MTA. It's a city project. The MTA is a state agency.

Even sillier, you mention the MTA BUDGET which is totally different from the MTA CAPITAL PLAN.

Funds for MTA expansion projects like the Second Avenue Subway are 100% separate from funds for daily operations. The current issue with the MTA is a reliable additional funding source for daily operations, NOT the capital plan.

In my post this was the last of my reasons, but yes these projects are in jeopardy if the MTA can not find funding for its daily operations, they've already taken a stop off 42nd street from the 7 line, now it'll only stop at 34th and 11th, which is retarded, because of it.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by STERNyc

WOW you're an idiot. Pick up a newspaper.

How about today's NY Times?

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/20...er-yes-really/

"Despite a near-constant drumbeat of layoff announcements by big companies, the unemployment rates for New York City and New York State dipped to 5.7 percent last month, according to the State Labor Department."

Oops. Guess you were wrong about that. So nothing gets built for 10 years? What does the NY Times say about the state and nation?

"Still, the city’s job market appears to be healthier than the state’s and the nation’s."

So if NYC has a healthier job market than the state and nation, and (according to you) nothing gets built in NYC for 10 years, what's your prediction for the rest of the country? New construction in the year 2084, give or take a decade?

Originally Posted by STERNyc

I'm willing to bet you have no business education and that your field of work isnt in the real estate industry,

Wrong on both counts. I used to work in Private Placements at Credit Suisse (probably when you were in elementary school) and I currently earn a (very good) living doing site analysis/selection for U.S. firms in Mexico City. I have two Ivy League degrees.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

I'm also willing to bet that other than the WTC no other project over 1000 feet will go forward in NYC for atleast another decade.

Paging Nostradamus: there are already buildings over 1,000 ft u/c, so you already lose that bet.

Please tell me more predictions. You predicted 9/11 in 1991? You predicted the 2008 credit meltdown in 1998?


The fact that you believe you can accurately predict 10 years into the future, when the greatest minds on earth wouldn't claim to predict 10 weeks into the future, is truly hilarious.

[STERNyc]

Stop twisting my words.

I don't understand why you're posting an article that says seasonal employment is the lowest its been since immediately following the September 11 attacks to bolster your point. Reality check, yes NYC is doing better than the rest of the nation so that means NYC is doing good? No. NYC is hurting, read no new construction since the crisis, and the rest of the country is doing even worse. Take it from someone who lives in Manhattan not someone who lives in another Country.

So if NYC has a healthier job market than the state and nation, and (according to you) nothing gets built in NYC for 10 years, what's your prediction for the rest of the country? New construction in the year 2084, give or take a decade?

I said nothing about new construction for the rest of the country until 2084, where'd you pull that number out of your ass? I predict the rest of the country will not see big projects, 500M+ for another decade, give or take a couple of years.

Paging Nostradamus: there are already buildings over 1,000 ft u/c, so you already lose that bet.

You either refuse to read what I write or insist on changing my words. I said there will be no new construction of buildings over 1000 feet, except for the WTC, for the next decade. Basically every building shown here except for the WTC will not get built for another decade:



Once again you have no concept of time, that does not include 1000 footers that began construction before the current economic crisis.

Please tell me more predictions. You predicted 9/11 in 1991? You predicted the 2008 credit meltdown in 1998?

I did not predict 9/11 or the credit meltdown, never said I did.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by STERNyc

You don't have a strong understanding of time. All of which started before the current crisis, construction is a several year process. That's what happens during a bubble. It's popped and since the crisis there has been zero construction on projects over 100 million. 50 West Street was about to start construction and had financing in place, now its impossible to find financing and it won't go forward. Extell's 10th avenue tower, Extell's 57th Street Tower, the Drake, and countless other holes around Manhattan that aren't and won't go forward for awhile.

So you admit that you lied. You said nothing would be built in NYC for 10 years. Now you admit that worldwide financing is currently dried up, and this fluid situation could change at any moment.

Of course none of these buildings will be financed RIGHT NOW. You claimed nothing could be financed or built for 10 YEARS, which is absurd.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

If you read my post I said financing was secondary. Yes financing will open back up but it won't matter because nobody is going to be building in this economy. Financing will no longer be given for big projects without a large prior commitment, there will be a glut of office space and luxury condominiums and no demand and commitments for new ones for awhile. It'll be the late 1970's to early 1980's, and 1989-1999 all over again.

None of these periods had no construction for 10 years, so again, you admit you lied. In all of these periods, there were dozens of towers constructed.

Lower levels of construction do not mean no construction, and there has never been 10 years in any major global city with no construction.

And nobody but you thinks that NYC is 2008 is remotely comparable to these previous periods.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

Chase is so strong that there stock is lowest its been in 6 years.

You know nothing about Chase, the market, or the relationship between the overall market and the relative strength of a company.

Chase is so far ahead this year in the League Tables, it isn't even funny. In terms of dealmaking, they are completely dominant worldwide as of 2008. Jamie Dimon is the world's most powerful banker.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

If Citigroup doesnt get bailed out it will go bankrupt.

Citigroup has TONS of cash reserves. They are over $50 billion over the "well capitalized" threshold. They may get more govt. capital, which is a completely different matter.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

I know I'm talking to a genuine idiot when you say Morgan Stanley, AIG, and Lehman is fine, tell this to the thousands of employees they've had to lay off they'll be interested to hear.

Brilliant. A company has layoffs, so it then follows that the company is (as you claim) "dead". I guess every single company on earth is "dead", because every single company has layoffs in bad economies. Google just had major layoffs, so I guess Google is "dead." Coca-Cola and Pepsi just laid off 8,000 people in MEXICO ALONE, so I guess no more soda for the world...

And the fact that you put Morgan Stanley in the same boat as AIG and Lehman is just... What exactly has changed at Morgan Stanley?

Originally Posted by STERNyc

Truly an idiot. Hedge funds have gone the way of the junkbond brokerages.

I'll tell that to my buddy who lives on Park Ave. in the low 70's, and is making a killing on the last few months.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

And the demand for medical office space is so high that Extell doesn't have a single commitment.

You don't understand logical reasoning, do you? The lack of a signed tenant does not necessarily have any relationship to demand.

Even if it did, the project hasn't even been marketed until this month. Who on earth would sign a lease this quarter? All dealmaking is off till 2009 at the earliest.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

Actually that's not true. The last spec building that didn't have a tenant at completion was 2 NY Plaza that spelled doom for its developer.

There have been dozens of 100% spec buildings built since 2 NY Plaza.

Axel Stawski ONLY builds spec buildings, such as 565 Fifth and 360 Madison. He even built them in the early 1990's, and made a killing.

Macklowe ONLY builds spec buildings, and he did very well at 340 Madison.

Neither Stawski nor Macklowe opened these buildings with a single tenant.

[STERNyc]

Your twisting of my words is tops. Please bump this thread when a 1000 foot project outside of the WTC starts construction in NYC. I promise to bump it in a couple of months when this site is nothing more than a weed garden.


I refuse to continue going back and forth, with someone who not only doesn't know anything about the real estate industry, doesn't even live in NYC or the USA for that matter, and has a general lack of knowledge of business and history. You can attack me all you want, because Im not wasting any more of my time responding to you. I advise people to read both our posts, mine stand by reason. It pains me but NYC will not see the construction of another 1000 footer for about another decade.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by STERNyc

It pains me but NYC will not see the construction of another 1000 footer for about another decade.

Not as much as it pains me to not have your magical powers to see decades into the future.

You let us know when 2018 rolls around, and you give the ok for construction to resume in NYC. And don't forget to roll out your preapproved 21st Century construction schedule for the rest of the planet...

[NYC2ATX]

How about you both shut up and stop bickering. This website is not here for pointless arguements. Yes, the outlook is not good for the economy right now, anyone can see that. However, I refuse to be a complete pessimist and think that NYC will grind to a halt, shut down, CRASH AND BURN due to this! Think about the Great Depression. It was during that period that construction jobs fed the families of New Yorkers, and they churned out the Empire State and Chrysler Buildings (among numerous others), which today are revered as symbols of the progress and perseverance of this country.

Crawford, I admire your optimism and your post giving a less negative outlook about potential future supertalls in our fine city brought my spirits up a lot... but don't delude yourself into thinking that everything is fine, when it's really not. Times are NOT good right now, no matter how you spin it.
STERNyc, it's good that you are realistic about the daunting troubles at hand. Like I said, times are certainly not good. I dislike your doomsday attitude, though. I hear enough of that already, and it's not what anyone needs to get them through this next period in history. Try being more optimistic, you'd be surprised how good it feels.

Remember, no one really knows what the future holds.

P.S. Please don't attack me either guys. I'm not here to fight.

[NYguy]

Yes, let's keep this debate civil, and keep your personal attacks to each other.

Stern, Crawford has answered your initial post, so I won't. Except to say that it is unrealistic to think that Midtown won't resume commercial construction for another decade. I think Larry Silverstein sums it up best with his piece yesterday in the Downtown Express on why Downtown has to build - and it is. But I think it pertains more to Midtown where there is relatively NO major new office construction:

Originally Posted by Silverstein

http://downtownexpress.com/de_290/downtownwillrise.html

...when the economic future of our city, our state and our nation seems less than secure — it is easy to succumb to fear, doubt and cynicism.

It is important, however, to remember back to the period immediately following 9/11 and the dot-com bust — when Downtown lost 50,000 jobs, millions of square feet of office space sat vacant and many so-called experts had written Downtown off for good.

It's at least predicted that we will have a similar problem with vacant space coming back on the market...

Originally Posted by Silverstein

In 2000 Sen. Schumer released his Group of 35 Report, which estimated that the city needed a minimum of 60 million square feet of new office space in the next 25 years just to retain existing office jobs, much less provide space for new ones.

New York needed new office buildings eight years ago — even before tens of millions of feet were lost to the 9/11 attacks and the wave of conversions of older offices to apartment buildings. From 1969 to 1989, Manhattan added almost 100 million square feet of office space — a 36 percent increase. But in the 19 years since, we’ve added only 7 million feet, an increase of under 2 percent. And meanwhile, the city’s office stock is getting older, which makes it less attractive to first class companies who want state-of-the-art technology and environmental standards.

...keep in mind that, through development booms and bust, New York City’s economy has always absorbed every inch of office space that has been constructed. There is no reason to expect this time to be any different.

No, there isn't...

Originally Posted by Silverstein

By building now, even if demand for offices either Downtown or anywhere else in the city softens temporarily, we will be ready when the New York and U.S. economies rebound. And have no doubt — they will. They always do. With 55 years in the business, I’ve lived and worked through many of these cycles.

Building great office towers at a time like this is also the smartest economic decision we could make. It will serve as an economic stimulus as thousands of New Yorkers will be put to work right now, and it will create the capacity for the new jobs that will be created tomorrow.

Silverstein is a smart man, and is in a situation where he is fortunate enough that he can build what amounts to spec towers (towers 2 and 3). His towers will be in the best position when things turn around because he has virtually no competition. Office space coming back on the market now wouldn't really be comparible today - five years from now it will be even less so. But there's still the matter of Downtown vs. Midtown. There are still companies that will never move Downtown, no matter the situation. As far as residential goes, when credit becomes easier, that's less of a problem.

Now, as far as this tower goes, (the WPC), they apparently aren't planning anything before 2010. But they are targeting a very specific market. The success of this project depends on what kind of success they will have in the industry over the next year or two - we certainly won't know that next week.

[NYC4Life]

Wow, an entire page devoted to nonsense. Now i want to see actual news on this tower.

[NYC2ATX]

It's not nonsense.....well the bickering was nonsense, but thanks Crawford for your post (the one with the pics), and thank you NYguy. That's a smart piece you quoted, and like I said, it's OPTIMISM we need.

....and now ladies and gentlemen, back to 55 West 33rd Street.

[Jibba]

Nice, solid design. The slanted set-back conflicts with the diagrid pattern, but will probably look better in its actual inception.

[NYguy]

One of the nice things about this tower, and most of the developments in the area, is the generous plaza that will front it.
The subway entrance adds a nice touch, though the station itself will be deeper than normal for various reasons.

Shown here, the WPC plan:




Compared with some early subway planning for the site, gives an idea of the depth:







Early planning also shows the plaza on what would become the WPC (and the Girasole in the background)









Compared to the final WPC version:




View from the upper offices:

[CMack]

NYguy, those are great elevation diagrams showing the incorporation of the subway and access. Very cool to see!