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  #1461  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 4:30 AM
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Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
Wynne's approval rating: down to 13%. Despite the social issue backlash, they still look to be headed for oblivion - and the poll numbers show them having a hard time keeping official party status.

http://ipolitics.ca/2016/11/25/ontar...18-poll-finds/
I don't understand why it has taken this long for her record to drop so far, and I still don't understand how she won a majority in 2014. I was looking at some CBC stories from when McGuinty was still premier in late 2012 and the Liberals were in the process of choosing a new leader, and the same topics Ontarians are complaining about today were being complained about then. Same with during the election campaign in 2014. And yet people still voted for her in 2014.

I have always voted PC provincially. While some of their socially conservative base makes me uncomfortable, I still intend on voting for them in 2018.
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  #1462  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 4:57 AM
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I don't understand why it has taken this long for her record to drop so far, and I still don't understand how she won a majority in 2014. I was looking at some CBC stories from when McGuinty was still premier in late 2012 and the Liberals were in the process of choosing a new leader, and the same topics Ontarians are complaining about today were being complained about then. Same with during the election campaign in 2014. And yet people still voted for her in 2014.

I have always voted PC provincially. While some of their socially conservative base makes me uncomfortable, I still intend on voting for them in 2018.
No one thought they would win in 2011 or 2007, either. The PCs just keep running really bad campaigns. Saying you're going to fix unemployment by laying off 100,000 people and complaining that the government cancelled gas plants when your own party just months before demanded that they do so isn't a very effective method of securing victory. Before that you had their hypocrisy over the HST (a PC position until McGuinty implemented it) and John Tory's pandering toward minority religions by saying he would fund schools that taught their religion.

In Northern Ontario, it didn't help that half of their candidates sympathized with neo-nazism and the other half were living in Southern Ontario at the time. In my riding they ran a university professor who was the highest paid civil servant in the city for over a decade, and the only other thing he was known for was being afraid of Wifi. I honestly don't think the PCs even want to win in the north. The neo-nazi woman they ran in 2014 was literally chosen by the president of that riding association calling her while she was about to take a shower, and she said yes because "it sounded fun". If the party's slate of candidates next time is going to include land rights wingnuts, neo-nazis and 20 year old homophobes I don't see them winning in 2018 either.
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  #1463  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 10:51 AM
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The PCs just keep running really bad campaigns.
And that's the key.

As much as I agree with some of the things the Liberals have done, I disagree with many other decisions. But until there's prospect of a substantial, principled alternative that has a realistic platform worthy of trust, nobody else will get my vote. Maybe other Ontarians feel like me?
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  #1464  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 12:46 AM
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No one thought they would win in 2011 or 2007, either. The PCs just keep running really bad campaigns.
The Liberals had a reasonably good shot in 2007; they were still relatively popular back then. 2011, though, was a different story.

It's interesting to note that Nanos put out a poll a few weeks ago. For those unaware, Nanos is by far the most accurate public pollster in Canada as they use much a more effective, but more expensive, methodology. Much of the reason why there are so many "the polls were all wrong!" incidents these days is partly because as the profit margins of media have gone down, most pollsters have cut corners with their techniques, resulting in much less scientifically sound polling techniques. For example, most pollsters now use automated robocalls instead of live questions, which are more likely to be ignored/hung up on, thus skewing the sample. But not Nanos.. they still stick to high quality methodology. For this reason they don't do a lot of mid-term polling (a lot of $$$ to spend when there's little publicity generated).. but this time, they did.

Nanos polls are exciting because they often catch things that other pollsters don't, thanks to the accuracy gap.

And this one was interesting... while like the other pollsters it showed a PC lead and a low approval rating for Wynne, both were far less dramatic. Nanos reported an 8-point lead for the PCs (40-32) and a 34% approval rating for Kathleen Wynne. Bad news for the Liberals, but far less bad than the likes of Forum, Ipsos, Mainstreet, etc. which have all been claiming 15-20 point leads for the PCs and only a 10%-15% approval rating for Kathleen Wynne.

Furthermore, the Nanos poll noted the Liberals are still ahead of the PCs among voters under the age of 40 (in particular, the PCs only had 14% support among those aged 18-29), and the Liberals are tied with the PCs in the GTA (not just Toronto, the whole GTA) and among female voters.

In short, while things are looking bad for the Liberals, they're not looking nearly as bad as you'd think. In particular, the Nanos numbers seem to discount the possibility, now often discussed in the media, of a large PC majority.

That said, the Nanos poll also asked people to rank issues, and in a concerning trend for the Liberals, the issues on which people generally view them positively on (education, the environment, and infrastructure investment) were ranked fairly low in people's priorities, by contrast, health (where the Liberals have taken some beating lately) and hydro were at the top. That doesn't really bode well for Wynne.
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  #1465  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 2:12 AM
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I don't see anything the PCs propose in terms of health or hydro being viewed more positively than the Liberals, though. It was the PCs who significantly changed both systems in the first place.
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  #1466  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 2:53 AM
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I don't see anything the PCs propose in terms of health or hydro being viewed more positively than the Liberals, though. It was the PCs who significantly changed both systems in the first place.
I agree with you, but I'm not sure the general public does.

Hydro is an interesting one because it's a dangerous thing for the PCs (or the NDP, for that matter) to talk about. It's very easy to get people riled about it obviously, but there's very little that can be done to actually meaningfully reduce hydro rates without some pretty radical ideas that are complete non-starters (like subsidizing the cost of the hydro system with the general treasury, or bringing back coal power). Most of what the government can do is simply stop the prices from increasing much further and maybe get some small reductions in place. And most of the measures required to do that.... the Liberals are already doing. And the more the PCs rail on about hydro, the more voters will expect them to do something, and the harder they'll flop in the polls once they get into office and realize they can't.
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  #1467  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 3:52 AM
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What could be setting up is a dangerous divide. If the Liberals win again with almost no support outside the GTA, I think rural areas will start putting up more radical candidates in 2022...and they will actually get elected. You'll see secession become a big topic of discussion.
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  #1468  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 4:28 AM
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In a scenario where the Liberals keep getting re-elected with majorities consisting of almost entirely urban seats--in 2018, again in 2022, again in 2026 and Kathleen Wynne is still Premier in 2030*.. then I can definitely see regional tensions becoming very ugly in the coming years.

I really can't see the Liberals winning that much, though. That said, if the PCs win 2018, it will probably be because Brown succeeded in moderating the party, which could also lead to a regional tensions scenario under an urban-centric PC party.

(*Unlikely because of age; Kathleen Wynne will be almost 80 years old in 2030. If the Liberals do win repeatedly she'll probably retire before then).
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  #1469  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 4:46 AM
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If they're still in power in 2030 and she is still leading the party then she will have lead it for 17 years, that's quite a long time to be a premier. If they get another majority in 2018 I doubt she will run again in 2022.
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  #1470  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 5:03 AM
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No one thought they would win in 2011 or 2007, either. The PCs just keep running really bad campaigns. Saying you're going to fix unemployment by laying off 100,000 people and complaining that the government cancelled gas plants when your own party just months before demanded that they do so isn't a very effective method of securing victory. Before that you had their hypocrisy over the HST (a PC position until McGuinty implemented it) and John Tory's pandering toward minority religions by saying he would fund schools that taught their religion.

In Northern Ontario, it didn't help that half of their candidates sympathized with neo-nazism and the other half were living in Southern Ontario at the time. In my riding they ran a university professor who was the highest paid civil servant in the city for over a decade, and the only other thing he was known for was being afraid of Wifi. I honestly don't think the PCs even want to win in the north. The neo-nazi woman they ran in 2014 was literally chosen by the president of that riding association calling her while she was about to take a shower, and she said yes because "it sounded fun". If the party's slate of candidates next time is going to include land rights wingnuts, neo-nazis and 20 year old homophobes I don't see them winning in 2018 either.
I have to agree with everything. The PCs certainly did have very poor and laughable campaigns. Many voters can't figure out where the PCs stand on many issues and it continues to this day.

I also find that the PCs have had many bizarre candidates and some real wingnuts for sure including some who are current MPPs. Their solution for every issue in Northern Ontario is that they will offer tax breaks or incentives for business and industry. Nobody here buys that. The party seems so out of touch with resources industries and those who work in them.
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  #1471  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 5:06 AM
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Originally Posted by ScreamingViking View Post
And that's the key.

As much as I agree with some of the things the Liberals have done, I disagree with many other decisions. But until there's prospect of a substantial, principled alternative that has a realistic platform worthy of trust, nobody else will get my vote. Maybe other Ontarians feel like me?
I feel pretty much the same way. I do feel that the NDP could be an alternative but sometimes wonder. My MPP is NDP btw.
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  #1472  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 5:19 AM
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The PCs will need to get rid of extremists elements to be taken seriously by swing voters. Mike Harris was successful because he was quite conservative economically but did not move Ontario to the right on moral social issues such as abortion. Harris was pro-choice and very secular. Harris also had a number of urban MPPs who were quite progressive.

The current PC Party seems to be dominated by many rural MPPs who are not appealing to those living in larger cities and in the North.
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  #1473  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 4:27 PM
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The PCs will need to get rid of extremists elements to be taken seriously by swing voters. Mike Harris was successful because he was quite conservative economically but did not move Ontario to the right on moral social issues such as abortion. Harris was pro-choice and very secular. Harris also had a number of urban MPPs who were quite progressive.

The current PC Party seems to be dominated by many rural MPPs who are not appealing to those living in larger cities and in the North.
The PC's have been weak in the North for decades. I can't remember the last time they elected anyone beyond Nipissing.
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  #1474  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 8:05 PM
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In a scenario where the Liberals keep getting re-elected with majorities consisting of almost entirely urban seats--in 2018, again in 2022, again in 2026 and Kathleen Wynne is still Premier in 2030*.. then I can definitely see regional tensions becoming very ugly in the coming years.

I really can't see the Liberals winning that much, though. That said, if the PCs win 2018, it will probably be because Brown succeeded in moderating the party, which could also lead to a regional tensions scenario under an urban-centric PC party.

(*Unlikely because of age; Kathleen Wynne will be almost 80 years old in 2030. If the Liberals do win repeatedly she'll probably retire before then).
Re: the urban-centric PC party scenario, that is just as possible if things flip and they try too hard for GTA voters. They don't like the PC establishment either (which is why Oosterhoff pulled off the mega-upset). Would the rural voters prefer the NDP in that case, or a new party?

These ridings used to be more or less divided - some of them (particularly in the rural SW) were strongly Liberal, while others have been PC bastions for a long time.
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  #1475  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2016, 3:05 AM
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The PC's have been weak in the North for decades. I can't remember the last time they elected anyone beyond Nipissing.
The last time was Alan Pope in 1987 in the former riding of Cochrane South which was mainly Timmins!

The PCs were quite strong in Northern Ontario back when the party was very centrist under John Robarts and Bill Davis. One Mike Harris became party leader, support tumbled because Northerners don't like neo-conservatives.

Since 1990 in Northern Ontario, only Nipissing has voted PC but not in every election. The only other riding I can think of where the PC candidate has even come close in a couple elections is Kenora-Rainy River.
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  #1476  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2016, 4:55 AM
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The last time was Alan Pope in 1987 in the former riding of Cochrane South which was mainly Timmins!
That's interesting, because 1987 was a low point for the PCs.. IMO, it's their worst result ever. They were in third place in 1987 and 1990.
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  #1477  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2016, 5:34 AM
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The last time was Alan Pope in 1987 in the former riding of Cochrane South which was mainly Timmins!

The PCs were quite strong in Northern Ontario back when the party was very centrist under John Robarts and Bill Davis. One Mike Harris became party leader, support tumbled because Northerners don't like neo-conservatives.

Since 1990 in Northern Ontario, only Nipissing has voted PC but not in every election. The only other riding I can think of where the PC candidate has even come close in a couple elections is Kenora-Rainy River.
Once Gilles Bisson retires, that riding might be wide open again and they might have a fighting chance if the NDP pick a weak candidate. But having Patrick Brown push for the establishment is not a benefit at all there. Also the Liberals are hopeless up there these days as well.

Bisson has the seat as long as he wants it though as he is incredibly popular. Just like Charlie Angus probably has the seat as long as he wants it federally.
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  #1478  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2016, 4:41 AM
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Their solution for every issue in Northern Ontario is that they will offer tax breaks or incentives for business and industry. Nobody here buys that. The party seems so out of touch with resources industries and those who work in them.
They're out of touch, period. You could give our industries a –100% tax rate, it still won't make people buy more paper, or raise global demand for minerals. And then they encourage urban sprawl, which is bankrupting our cities. Of all the people the PCs and federal Conservatives have run in NWO, they're either public servants or failed business people. None of them can be described as successful in any real sense of the term.
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  #1479  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2016, 4:09 AM
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I'm going to make a bold prediction: the NDP will form government in 2018 if Wynne remains leader. Premier Andrea Horwath, anyone?

The PC's are self-destructing between the base and the establishment (I wouldn't be surprised if some of their own MPP's break away to form a new party or cross the floor to a party with 0 seats), and Wynne is way too unpopular right now.
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  #1480  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2016, 4:41 AM
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We're only halfway through, who knows what will happen.
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