We've had this discussion plenty of times before, so I'm going to keep my post relatively short (compared to those other threads
). My problems with the Central Subway are:
1. Terrible connection to Market. If we're trying to build a comprehensive system where each piece feeds off of one another, the worst thing that we can do is screw up the connection of our most important trunk line (the Market St tunnel) and another of our most important routes.
2. Terrible scaling potential. The stations at Union Square and in Chinatown are FAAAAR too small if we ever plan to extend this thing to North Beach, Van Ness, or further, or if we start unloading HSR trains at 4th and King (they're about half the size of the Church or Castro stations). If we put huge limitations on capacity now, it's going to cost exponentially more to fix it in the future (think BART and the two track tube built in the late 60's/early 70's instead of the four track tube that was sold to voters years before). The Chinatown and Moscone stations also will only have one street entrance, severely restricting the capacity of people that can enter/exit the station.
3. Every study has shown that it will significantly increase Muni operating costs because it doesn't really "replace" any current service, it simply adds train service to a route that will still need to be heavily serviced by buses and trolleybuses. I wouldn't be opposed to this if there was some indication from the MTA that they would start implementing transit priority on the above ground T segment - and especially at 4th and King. Then, we'd at least have the potential of making this line a trunk line, with fast enough speed for transfers off of buses to be worth it (and thus drawing in increased ridership). As it is, the above ground T is slower than the bus it replaced, and the below ground portion will likely not be much faster if you take into account time to get to and from the train (keep in mind the Union Square station will be 10 stories under ground, as opposed to the Market St Muni/BART levels being two and three stories, respectively - Moscone is about six stories under ground and Chinatown will be about five stories under).
As far as Geary goes, of course it would make more sense to spend large amounts on Geary, but that doesn't mean that Stockton doesn't also need help. Unfortunately, this beast will manage to make overall service everywhere worse, because of the extreme increase in operational costs that it will demand.
There are two arguments often made that I don't really buy:
1. The "free" money argument - don't worry about a bad project in Chinatown because the money couldn't be used for other uses anyway. This is true for the majority of the amount being spent, however, local money still makes up more than a quarter billion dollars of the bill. That's more than the total expected local contribution to BOTH Van Ness BRT and Geary BRT. And again, the increase in operational costs (with no plan on where that money is going to come from - hint - it will come from degrading service on other lines, increasing fares, or increasing taxes in some way) is the real devil in the details of this project.
2. Chinatown merchants support this project while Geary merchants don't support projects on Geary. Again, this is true - but you have to look at the details. Geary has never had a proposal of a deep-bore subway with almost no surface construction. Chinatown has never had a proposal for an entirely surface proposal with extensive construction impacts. I don't agree with the Geary merchants, but I can certainly see some of their concern. If Chinatown was looking at having their streets torn up, I guarantee support wouldn't be there, and if Geary was looking at no surface impacts, I find it hard to believe that support would not be there.