Metro Vancouver 2041 -Draft Plan-

[Metro-One]

Yeah, I was pretty sure they did exist pre-1980, but i was to lazy to research the actual years when those models came out I knew it was the late 70's or earliest of the early 80s.

But I think people get the point. Most of what was listed above was already in motion / foreseeable.

Anyone remember when flat screen wall mounted tvs were only in science fictions? There is something that was easily predicted decades prior.

[jlousa]

And yet video calls are still not standard even though they were envisioned decades ago and the tech definitely exists. Same with flying cars etc etc. If anyone knew for sure what the future would look like in 30yrs they wouldn't tell anyone they would keep quiet and get very very rich.
All those changes that have happened have not changed our civic lives all that much to be honest. We still require garbage service, water, fire, police, parks, community centres. We still need to live in homes, work somewhere and commute in between those places. Will the future change that, perhaps but I doubt things civically will be much different in 30yrs.

[Metro-One]

I agree chances are things will not be very different civically in 30 years.

Save some major disaster, world economic meltdown (to a scale far grander than the one last year) or global war these predictions generally give a good basic idea of future population growth.

But to counter your video calls argument, the do exists, and are somewhat popular, it is called the internet.

I (and many people I know) video call very often using Skype. Especially if it is international calling. In fact video calling has made long distance far easier...

[bils]

I would like to your guys' thoughts on the effects of population growth on the different demographics in various parts of Vancouver. For example.

Richmond's growth = immigration from Asian countries
Surrey's growth = immigration from South Asian countries
Vancouver downtown growth = "immigration" from suburbia

We can assume that suburbia's growth would be fuelled by immigration from other countries, while the growth of downtown is predominantly due to 2nd+ generation GVRD residents moving into the core, almost like a "white flight" into the centre of the city. It seems that very few new immigrants are moving directly into the downtown core.

Do you guys believe any truth in this?

[geoff's two cents]

Interesting point - I hadn't thought of that.

It's worth noting, however, that many suburban neighborhoods are still very white. In my case, I think part of the reason I enjoy downtown so much is the relative scarcity of white, angry, mulletted 4x4 drivers.

[Zassk]

Is downtown really that "white" that one can call the pattern a "white flight to downtown"? This seems a little narrow to me... both in the characterization of those suburbs and of downtown.

[bils]

what i'm saying is the new immigrants are unlikely to move directly into the downtown core, and more likely to move into the burbs (richmond, surrey, burnaby, etc.)

downtown is not 'that white', but it is 'whiter' than vancouver's adjacent suburbs. and the source of the downtown core's population growth is suburbia - not immigration. my observations. i'm not saying there's anything wrong with this. but it seems to be the trend of metro population growth.

[Vancity]

Originally Posted by bils

what i'm saying is the new immigrants are unlikely to move directly into the downtown core, and more likely to move into the burbs (richmond, surrey, burnaby, etc.)

downtown is not 'that white', but it is 'whiter' than vancouver's adjacent suburbs. and the source of the downtown core's population growth is suburbia - not immigration. my observations. i'm not saying there's anything wrong with this. but it seems to be the trend of metro population growth.

I agree that many immigrants will flee to the suburbs, like Richmond, Burnaby, and even places like Abbotsford, etc. Cheaper places to live to begin with, and over a period of time, many of those 'immigrants' will move out to the larger cities. Downtown is too expensive for many people to afford, and that may be another reason why even residents of the country flee to suburbs. They are a cheaper alternative to live, and raise a family.

[SpikePhanta]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

The internet already existed, and anyone with any technological sense by 1980 would have had a hunch about possible future expansions.

Personal computers by 1980 were easily predictable, and I believe a few very weak, large prototypes were already built by then (my family got its first personal computer only 6 years after that)

I am sure cell phones again were on the radar for those working in the tech / communication sector, since pagers already existed.

Peak oil was also on the radar, and the stock market ride? Anyone with half a brain in their head knows that the stock market is going to follow an up and down cycle as it aways has.

So yeah, some things are predictable if you have a little base knowledge.

DEBBIE DOWNER! lolJk

Also I'm pretty sure everyone knew that Britain had only a 99 year lease on HongKong

[SpikePhanta]

Originally Posted by bils

what i'm saying is the new immigrants are unlikely to move directly into the downtown core, and more likely to move into the burbs (richmond, surrey, burnaby, etc.)

downtown is not 'that white', but it is 'whiter' than vancouver's adjacent suburbs. and the source of the downtown core's population growth is suburbia - not immigration. my observations. i'm not saying there's anything wrong with this. but it seems to be the trend of metro population growth.

Well your forgetting about East European imigrants a lot of them first move to Downtown.

Then again that is White.....

[WBC]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

The internet already existed, and anyone with any technological sense by 1980 would have had a hunch about possible future expansions.

Personal computers by 1980 were easily predictable, and I believe a few very weak, large prototypes were already built by then (my family got its first personal computer only 6 years after that)

I am sure cell phones again were on the radar for those working in the tech / communication sector, since pagers already existed.

Peak oil was also on the radar, and the stock market ride? Anyone with half a brain in their head knows that the stock market is going to follow an up and down cycle as it aways has.

So yeah, some things are predictable if you have a little base knowledge.

You are missing the point. The point is that nobody can't predict the extent as to which particular technology or a political event will have impact on our daily lives. Or whether something that is just around the corner will be quickly superseded by something else. For example, in the early 90s Microsoft was betting the house on Exchange server and email as cornerstone technologies and got caught by surprise by popularity of guess what - internet browsers. How many pager companies went out of business as they could not comprehend the change that was coming? I know I few locally. The fact that something exists does not make it a success - I can list you a ton of technologies and ideas in IT that ended up being dead ends.

Same thing today - do you want to bet your house on electric cars? Do you need charge stations around the city? What if somebody makes battery breakthrough that makes all our problems go away. Are the immigrants going to keep coming? What if they stay in China and India as they have no reason to leave due to the booming economy? What if it gets cheaper to produce goods locally in the future? Do you still need to keep expanding the port? What if half the white collar work force works from home by 2040 (I work from home 1-2 days a week nowadays and I was not doing that in early 00s)? What if we have flooding due to the global warming (what if that makes Abbotsford the best place to live)?

[WBC]

Originally Posted by SpikePhanta

DEBBIE DOWNER! lolJk

Also I'm pretty sure everyone knew that Britain had only a 99 year lease on HongKong

Yes, but were you aware that there were negotiations to extend that lease and were you also aware that 99 year lease applies to New Territories only and that if Britain was not reduced to a joke by 80s that handover may have not happened.

Anyhow, I was referring to Hong Kong handover and its impact on Vancouver immigration and real estate.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by WBC

You are missing the point. The point is that nobody can't predict the extent as to which particular technology or a political event will have impact on our daily lives. Or whether something that is just around the corner will be quickly superseded by something else. For example, in the early 90s Microsoft was betting the house on Exchange server and email as cornerstone technologies and got caught by surprise by popularity of guess what - internet browsers. How many pager companies went out of business as they could not comprehend the change that was coming? I know I few locally. The fact that something exists does not make it a success - I can list you a ton of technologies and ideas in IT that ended up being dead ends.

Same thing today - do you want to bet your house on electric cars? Do you need charge stations around the city? What if somebody makes battery breakthrough that makes all our problems go away. Are the immigrants going to keep coming? What if they stay in China and India as they have no reason to leave due to the booming economy? What if it gets cheaper to produce goods locally in the future? Do you still need to keep expanding the port? What if half the white collar work force works from home by 2040 (I work from home 1-2 days a week nowadays and I was not doing that in early 00s)? What if we have flooding due to the global warming (what if that makes Abbotsford the best place to live)?

No one can predict the future. All that can be done is to look in the past and see what has happened and from that take a guess as to what is going to happen. So far there is nothing that looks like people will stop moving here today. So from that we have to assume they will still be coming here in 5 year 10 years etc. But like you said no one can see what the future will hold.

Who knows maybe in 10 years the "BIG ONE" will finally hit. And Vancouver will be destroyed in the most impressive earthquake ever known to mankind

[ozonemania]

Originally Posted by bils

I would like to your guys' thoughts on the effects of population growth on the different demographics in various parts of Vancouver. For example.

Richmond's growth = immigration from Asian countries
Surrey's growth = immigration from South Asian countries
Vancouver downtown growth = "immigration" from suburbia

We can assume that suburbia's growth would be fuelled by immigration from other countries, while the growth of downtown is predominantly due to 2nd+ generation GVRD residents moving into the core, almost like a "white flight" into the centre of the city. It seems that very few new immigrants are moving directly into the downtown core.

Do you guys believe any truth in this?

Once source of immigration these days is due to family reunification and naturally these new immigrants will be moving to where their family and friends are. Over time this doesn't mean they'll stay there. For example, look at the Chinese immigrants from the 60s and 70s, most of them initially moved into Van East and Strathcona. Most of them today have long moved out of the area into all areas of Metro Vancouver. Yes, some to Richmond, but also to Coquitlam, New West, Surrey, Vancouver, North Shore, etc.

The other source of international immigration is investor immigration.

'Suburbia' immigration to Vancouver core is economic. It is not ethnic, or white flight. Immigrants whether be local or international will move into a neighbourhood that reflects their self-perceived economic stature. So international immigration patterns in the city may very well depend on our national immigration policy in the coming decades.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by ozonemania

Once source of immigration these days is due to family reunification and naturally these new immigrants will be moving to where their family and friends are. Over time this doesn't mean they'll stay there. For example, look at the Chinese immigrants from the 60s and 70s, most of them initially moved into Van East and Strathcona. Most of them today have long moved out of the area into all areas of Metro Vancouver. Yes, some to Richmond, but also to Coquitlam, New West, Surrey, Vancouver, North Shore, etc.

I think a more common theme is the kids of those Chinese immigrants have grown up and moved out to a home in other areas. While the parents have stayed behind. Although I realize this isn't the case for everyone. In some cases the kids of stayed with the parents or the parents have moved out with the kids and sold the house.

[jlousa]

Some amendments to the regional growth plan, thought there would be a few people here that would enjoy reading.

http://vancouver.ca/ctyclerk/cclerk/...ndAppendix.pdf

[jlousa]

Surprised this thread doesn't get more action, anyways the COV is again re amending the plan, predicting even more people then before for 2041 in large part due to Oakridge. A few other changes as well proposed. Well worth the read for urbanites, it's under 100 pages.

Source:
http://former.vancouver.ca/ctyclerk/...cuments/p1.pdf

[cornholio]

Interesting, still have more to read but I enjoy looking at the predictions/plans. In my opinion though I believe they increased their growth projections way too soon and they will prove to be overly optimistic. The local real estate market and as a result economy will certainly falter and that will slow things down for a good number of years. I am also certain global oil prices and as a result mobility prices will come down significantly in the very near future and working remotely will continue to increase. I believe a combination of all these will slow the growth in Vancouver down.

Right now imo they are making the projections based on numbers from years that have had inflated growth in the city. Of course I could be wrong, but thats my view and im sticking to it.