Ottawa Byelections

[rocketphish]

Byelection for Ottawa-Vanier's federal seat as early as October
Chief Electoral Officer receives notice of vacancy in House of Commons for Ottawa–Vanier

By Michelle Nash Baker
Ottawa East News, Aug 26, 2016

Ottawa-Vanier constituents could go to the polls as early as Oct. 10 to vote for a new federal MP.

The Chief Electoral Officer of Canada, Marc Mayrand, received notice that the federal Ottawa-Vanier seat was vacant on Aug. 23.

According to Elections Canada, at least 11 days and no more than 180 days must pass after the notice before a byelection is called and the election must be held on a Monday.

Ottawa-Vanier’s long-time serving MP Mauril Belanger died on Aug. 16 after nearly a 10 month battle with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

Belanger has held the Ottawa-Vanier seat since he won a byelection in 1995. He was easily re-elected in 2015, with more than 57 per cent of the vote. Upon re-election, he submitted his name for the position of Speaker of the House of Commons, but on Nov. 30 Belanger withdrew his candidacy after he received the ALS diagnosis.

Belanger continued to work, even as the disease progressed rapidly.

“As a Member of Parliament, I intend to raise awareness by sharing this journey with my colleagues and the public so that more Canadians will learn and fight to continue research for a cure to ALS. It is in this spirit that we will continue to take each day as it comes,” Belanger wrote to his constituents in the spring.

Since the date of the election must be at least 36 days after the issue of the writ, the earliest that the byelection in Ottawa–Vanier can be held is on Oct. 10, which is the Thanksgiving holiday. The latest the byelection can be announced is February.

Elections Canada is an independent body set up by Parliament.

As for the provincial seat, vacated by Madeleine Meilleur on June 30, no byelection has yet been called.

Ontario Legislative Assembly Act states a seat must be filled within six months, meaning the latest Ottawa-Vanier’s new provincial representative could known is January.

Meilleur announced her departure from politics on June 9. Having served Ottawa-Vanier for more than 13 years as an MPP, and before that as a municipal councillor, the 67-year-old said she wanted to spend more time with family. She served as Ontario's Attorney General and minister responsible for francophone affairs before deciding to quit politics.

There are two vacant seats in Ontario’s legislature, as Scarborough-Rouge River MPP Bas Balkissoon resigned on March 22.

A byelection was called for Scarborough-Rouge River on Aug. 3.

http://www.ottawacommunitynews.com/n...ly-as-october/

[rocketphish]

The old adage was that you could paint a rock red, run it in Ottawa-Vanier, and it would win.

Does this still hold true? Were Bélanger and Meilleur that good, or were they just very popular francophone Liberals?

[Vanier]

Originally Posted by rocketphish

The old adage was that you could paint a rock red, run it in Ottawa-Vanier, and it would win.

Does this still hold true? Were Bélanger and Meilleur that good, or were they just very popular francophone Liberals?

It is a liberal stronghold. Has been since the beginning.

[1overcosc]

My take:

Federally: Combine Ottawa-Vanier's strong Liberal streak with how popular the federal Liberals are currently.. and it will go massively Liberal, guaranteed. Possibly as much as 70%.

Provincially: It's probably still a pretty safe bet that the Liberals will hang on to it but the NDP might have an outside chance if they run a very good candidate AND if the Liberals run a bad one.

[Capital Shaun]

Originally Posted by rocketphish

The old adage was that you could paint a rock red, run it in Ottawa-Vanier, and it would win.

Does this still hold true? Were Bélanger and Meilleur that good, or were they just very popular francophone Liberals?

The Liberals (federal & provincial) have been winning Ottawa-Vanier with results varying from just bellow 50% to way over 50% since the dawn of time. Only recent result to buck the trend was in 2011 when Bélanger won with only 38% of the vote. It's a pretty safe seat for the Liberals. (Which sucks for me because my vote is essentially meaningless in my own riding.)

[Capital Shaun]

The Ontario NDP has already selected a candidate: Claude Bisson, A retired public servant and brother of NDP MPP Gilles Bisson.
source: (in French)
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-droit/poli...awa-vanier.php

[1overcosc]

If I were you I would take out a Liberal party membership so you can participate in the nomination vote which is the real contest here.

[Capital Shaun]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

If I were you I would take out a Liberal party membership so you can participate in the nomination vote which is the real contest here.

True! It wouldn't be the first time I join a political just to vote in a nomination or leadership contest.

But provincially I'm technically still in Ottawa-Orleans until the new boundaries are in effect for the next general election.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by rocketphish

The old adage was that you could paint a rock red, run it in Ottawa-Vanier, and it would win.

Does this still hold true? Were Bélanger and Meilleur that good, or were they just very popular francophone Liberals?

For several elections, until 2011, there was a squeeze of NDP from the downtown portion of the riding eastward, and the Conservatives from the suburban part westward. If that trend had continued, it could have been anyone's riding in 2015. Given the 2015 results, and the reason for which the seat became vacant, I'd say this is pretty safely in the Liberal camp again now.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by Capital Shaun

The Liberals (federal & provincial) have been winning Ottawa-Vanier with results varying from just bellow 50% to way over 50% since the dawn of time. Only recent result to buck the trend was in 2011 when Bélanger won with only 38% of the vote. It's a pretty safe seat for the Liberals. (Which sucks for me because my vote is essentially meaningless in my own riding.)

A vote for the non-winning candidate/party != meaningless.

[Capital Shaun]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

A vote for the non-winning candidate/party != meaningless.

It does if the MP/MPP does not represent my interests in any way. That's certainly how it felt when Royal Galipeau was my MP. Couldn't even be bothered to reply to concerns with a form letter.

I still vote every election.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by Capital Shaun

It does if the MP/MPP does not represent my interests in any way. That's certainly how it felt when Royal Galipeau was my MP. Couldn't even be bothered to reply to concerns with a form letter.

I still vote every election.

That is a different question from whether or not your vote is meaningless.

[1overcosc]

The PCs are pulling a parachute. They're nominating former ombudsman Andre Marin, who lives in Nepean, for the provincial by election.

My guess is that they're using this as a practice run for him before putting him in Ottawa West Nepean in 2018.

Rather disrespectful to Ottawa Vanier voters but as they had no chance anyway it's kind of a moot point.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The PCs are pulling a parachute. They're nominating former ombudsman Andre Marin, who lives in Nepean, for the provincial by election.

My guess is that they're using this as a practice run for him before putting him in Ottawa West Nepean in 2018.

Rather disrespectful to Ottawa Vanier voters but as they had no chance anyway it's kind of a moot point.

Also, he's a giant douche.

[1overcosc]

Marin's campaign office is now open.. and it's not in the riding! It's located in Ottawa-Orleans. If I lived in O-V I'd be very annoyed now.

[m0nkyman]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Marin's campaign office is now open.. and it's not in the riding! It's located in Ottawa-Orleans. If I lived in O-V I'd be very annoyed now.

It's inside the boundary. Just.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by m0nkyman

It's inside the boundary. Just.

Nope, not provincially. The provincial government is still using the old 2003 borders until the 2018 election, so this by-election will be contested using the old borders, as redistributions don't take effect until the next general election.

So for this by-election, Andre Marin's headquarters are outside of the area he'll be representing for the next 2 years, should he win.

[acottawa]

I live in Ottawa-Vanier I can't see how a candidate having a hq 30 metres outside of the riding boundary is an issue.

I am more annoyed the seat has been vacant for so long, especially while debates on important issues such as the Jim Watson roundabout are under discussion.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I live in Ottawa-Vanier I can't see how a candidate having a hq 30 metres outside of the riding boundary is an issue.

It's more a symbol of how the PCs seem to care more about training their star candidate than actually mounting a campaign for riding residents. I don't really blame them--it's the most logical thing for them to do. I blame the system that results in parties having no motivation when safe seats are contested.

Originally Posted by acottawa

I am more annoyed the seat has been vacant for so long, especially while debates on important issues such as the Jim Watson roundabout are under discussion.

The seat has been vacant since June 21, so about three months. Historically it typically takes about six months for vacant seats to be filled.

Now that all the parties have candidates I expect the call to be issued within a few weeks, so the by-election will probably take place in November; so more or less within the typical timeframe.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Marin's campaign office is now open.. and it's not in the riding! It's located in Ottawa-Orleans. If I lived in O-V I'd be very annoyed now.

Wait, wut?!!!?