Stronger ties -- Mexican-US border cities or Canadian-US border cities?

[10023]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Whereas in the Mexican case, some cities were already there, and when parts of Mexico were taken by the US, essentially the border came to the city rather than the city to the border?

Mexico's biggest cities are even farther from the US border than Canada's. It's just a far more populous country than Canada, so some cities of meaningful size have sprung up near the border as well.

But cities like Tijuana, Juarez and (obviously) Nuevo Laredo are there because of the border. There wasn't much of anything along the US-Mexico border in the early 19th century; it's a pretty inhospitable environment. Nor was there much in Texas when it was annexed, or in California.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Another thing to note is that Canada historically built it's big cities away from the US border. 200 years ago the threat of US invasion was very real. It's why Toronto grew quicker than towns on the Niagara River, why few Canadian cities exist on the shores of Lake Erie, and why Ottawa was viewed as a good location.

Besides it not being either Toronto or Montreal, Ottawa was a safe distance from New York state.

Metro Vancouver is pretty close to the border, but of course it was built much later than the Ontario, Quebec and eastern Canadian cities, in the later 19th century.

The boundary between the US and Canada in the Pacific Northwest was still disputed up until the first half of the 19th century. Around the time that Texas was annexed, and the Mexican American war.

[Capsicum]

From this graph of immigration trends in history, you can compare Canada and Mexico and see easily why more Americans have contemporary cross-border family ties to Mexico than Canada nowadays.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...rica-1820.html

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

I didn't realize that western NY had a lot of people willing to still move to the other side of the border.

Are they there temporarily (working etc.) or are there many who want to stay long term as Canadians?

It's a little of both. It's not a huge number but it's growing. Some may come because of Trump or a desire to be Canadian but they're a small number. Most come for the same reason Canadians go to Silicon Valley, NYC, or Hollywood: opportunity. (Astonishingly there are 300,000 Canadians working in SV).

The larger Toronto gets and the more it booms, the stronger the pull becomes. They come for shopping, entertainment, see friends they've made, and to work. Some become permanent residents. Ontarians go to Buffalo for 2 reasons: cheaper flights out of the Buffalo-Niagara airport and to attend Bills games.

This speaks volumes. It's Buffalo's public television station:

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Whereas in the Mexican case, some cities were already there, and when parts of Mexico were taken by the US, essentially the border came to the city rather than the city to the border?

As has been suggested, I think those large Mexican border towns sprung up because of NAFTA.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Metro Vancouver is pretty close to the border, but of course it was built much later than the Ontario, Quebec and eastern Canadian cities, in the later 19th century.

The boundary between the US and Canada in the Pacific Northwest was still disputed up until the first half of the 19th century. Around the time that Texas was annexed, and the Mexican American war.

Yes, Vancouver is right on the border but there's no sizable metro on the US side. People in Vancouver do feel a close bond to Seattle (and Portland). It's common for Vancouverites to have visited the US but never any place in Canada east of the Rockies. Canada's big eastern cities don't have much sway in BC. They're far more connected to other places on the West coast.

[JManc]

Canadians love to shop in NY (and the US in general) as well. Cheaper I heard. Ontarians are wasting their time catching a game at Orchard Park though...unless they're into the Bills being humiliated on a weekly basis.








I'm a Bills fan...I can bash.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by 10023

It's just a far more populous country than Canada

Interestingly, how much closer the two countries' populations were in the past.

Today Canada has a bit over 36 million, Mexico over 127 million.

Mexico is three and a half times more populous than Canada today.

In 1960, Canada had about 18 million. Mexico had about 36 million. Mexico was twice as populous.

In 1930, Canada had about 10 million, Mexico about 16.5 million. Mexico was about one and two thirds times as populous.

In 1910, Canada had about 7 million, Mexico had 15 million. Mexico was about a bit more than twice as populous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Mexico
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canada

[10023]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Interestingly, how much closer the two countries' populations were in the past.

Today Canada has a bit over 36 million, Mexico over 127 million.

Mexico is three and a half times more populous than Canada today.

In 1960, Canada had about 18 million. Mexico had about 36 million. Mexico was twice as populous.

In 1930, Canada had about 10 million, Mexico about 16.5 million. Mexico was about one and two thirds times as populous.

In 1910, Canada had about 7 million, Mexico had 15 million. Mexico was about a bit more than twice as populous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Mexico
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canada

Yes, Mexico's population boomed in the latter 20th century, but I don't think this would have looked much different relatively speaking:



The main population centers of Mexico have never been close to the US. In fact it's more likely that the Mexican states bordering the US have grown the fastest.

On the other hand, I would expect that Canada's population has shifted west and (in the case of Calgary and Edmonton) north, away from America's population centers, over the past half century.

[isaidso]

^^ The Alberta boom and climate change will steadily move Canadians further north but the 'northern' population is starting from a very small base. Canada added 470,000 people between 2016-2017. Southern Ontario accounted for almost half of the total: 226,000.


http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&id=510005

Originally Posted by JManc

Canadians love to shop in NY (and the US in general) as well. Cheaper I heard. Ontarians are wasting their time catching a game at Orchard Park though...unless they're into the Bills being humiliated on a weekly basis.

I'm a Bills fan...I can bash.

Ontarians shopped in NY when our dollar was strong. Practically no one goes now. Btw, I heard the Bills are in the playoffs.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by JManc

Ontarians are wasting their time catching a game at Orchard Park though...unless they're into the Bills being humiliated on a weekly basis.








I'm a Bills fan...I can bash.

hey, they just made the playoffs for the 1st time in like 20 years.

let the bills have this moment.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Interestingly, how much closer the two countries' populations were in the past.

I like to think of it as similar to the tortoise and the hare story. Mexico zoomed far ahead of us population wise but we'll start to reel them back in. I wouldn't be surprised if it's back to a 1:2 ratio 50 years from now. 80 million vs 160 million?

[10023]

Originally Posted by isaidso

I like to think of it as similar to the tortoise and the hare story. Mexico zoomed far ahead of us population wise but we'll start to reel them back in. I wouldn't be surprised if it's back to a 1:2 ratio 50 years from now.

You think Canada is going to have close to 100 million people in 50 years?

Mexico is supposed to reach 150 million in 15 years.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by isaidso

I like to think of it as similar to the tortoise and the hare story. Mexico zoomed far ahead of us population wise but we'll start to reel them back in. I wouldn't be surprised if it's back to a 1:2 ratio 50 years from now. 80 million vs 160 million?

Probably the result of the baby boom and higher fertility rate? Canada's fertility rate was 3.8 births per woman in 1960, Mexico's was near 6.8 back then. Nowadays, Canada's rate is about 1.6, and Mexico's is 2.2.

Canada and Mexico are currently growing in population at similar rates 1.2- 1.3% but I'd imagine Canada's is due to immigration, Mexico's is due to natural increase.

[Capsicum]

Canada's population growth is supposedly predicted to be pretty much almost all by immigration by the end of the next decade or two (birth rate will not replenish death rate otherwise).

[Capsicum]

Japan and Mexico's population are probably neck and neck if they haven't cross each other yet on the list of top 10 most populous countries (Japan already fell from its peak I think, Mexico's is still growing).

[Capsicum]

Off topic but some other global shifts in population have and will happen in the very near future -- this year I read that Pakistan's population overtook Brazil's to end up as top 5.

India's population is predicted to surpass China's really soon -- some say the earlier part of the next decade.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Japan and Mexico's population are probably neck and neck if they haven't cross each other yet on the list of top 10 most populous countries (Japan already fell from its peak I think, Mexico's is still growing).

yeah, mexico will pass japan to land in the top 10 any day now.

it'll likely pass up russia in the not too terribly distant future as well.

[JManc]

The last time I was in Japan, it was like Florida...but colder and better sushi. Old people EVERYWHERE.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by 10023

Yes, Mexico's population boomed in the latter 20th century, but I don't think this would have looked much different relatively speaking:



The main population centers of Mexico have never been close to the US. In fact it's more likely that the Mexican states bordering the US have grown the fastest.

I think because of the salience of the Mexican border, areas close to the US get much more press and loom much larger in the American imagination than their proportion of the population in real life.

For instance, scenes and imagery set in Mexico often portray the landscape as desert with a saguaro cactus everywhere, even though they grow only in a relatively small range of the US and Mexico in the Sonoran desert.

Areas of Mexico with big bustling cities, not empty desert towns, or mountainous areas don't get enough accurate portrayal in the media.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

yeah, mexico will pass japan to land in the top 10 any day now.

it'll likely pass up russia in the not too terribly distant future as well.

Yeah, they are almost exactlythe same size. I didn't realize this until last week when I was in Japan having a nerdy argument with my friend about country populations. I thought Mexico was less than 100M...