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  #961  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 5:21 PM
MakeChicagoGreatAgai MakeChicagoGreatAgai is offline
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
Rauner STFU
If we don't talk about the high taxes here, maybe no one will realize!
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  #962  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 6:05 PM
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Steely Dan Steely Dan is offline
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Rauner STFU
rauner is probably right.

his timing is really stupid, but chicago will probably lose out on HQ2, and the biggest nail in the coffin will be our state's grossly mismanaged and fiscally insolvent government.

illinois government is exhibit A of what happens when you let the inmates run an asylum for decades.
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  #963  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 6:21 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
rauner is probably right.

his timing is really stupid, but chicago will probably lose out on HQ2, and the biggest nail in the coffin will be our state's grossly mismanaged and fiscally insolvent government.

illinois government is exhibit A of what happens when you let the inmates run an asylum for decades.
He's mostly right here. IL's finances are trash, but so are like half of all states. Pensions kill us. Obviously those costs will compound faster than most other kinds of liabilities, but I think a lot of people with an understanding of the issue realize the pensions will not be paid out as promised. It's literally mathematically impossible.

That said, I don't think that'll have a major impact on Amazon's decision. They are a massive corporation with the resources to avoid paying any taxes at all. They are above the issue. It's those without means who are SOL.
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  #964  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 6:47 PM
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Chicago's surprising strengths in the Amazon HQ2 race

Quote:
Amazon didn't rank the finalists, but the most significant HQ2 competitors seem to be Washington, Boston, Dallas, Atlanta and perhaps Toronto. To stay in the game and win, Chicago has to play to its strengths, which are the combination of size, affordability and infrastructure. Mayor Rahm Emanuel knows this, summing up his pitch for Chicago as the place with the best “access to talent, transportation, higher education, affordability and quality of life.” Emanuel and others are betting that as technology has come to dominate the economy, the industry giants can no longer find enough talent at affordable prices in San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Seattle, Austin or Boston, and they have no choice but to look elsewhere.

One of Chicago's best selling points may well be a deep bench of versatile corporate talent along with a big pool of tech workers. With its roots in consulting, financial services, risk management, law, accounting, advertising and even retailing, Chicago has a lot to offer a company planning for its next phase of global growth.

“It's assumed, because it's Amazon, the jobs will be highly technical," said Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “If you look at what Amazon is, there are a lot of business managers and people in project management. Those are things Chicago is good at that will be highly relevant, and it has good enough tech. If you read (Amazon's proposal), it doesn't look like this is about artificial intelligence."

...

Although a handful of western cities made Amazon's short list, “I think ultimately this will go east of the Mississippi to give Amazon a new center of gravity for recruiting,” says John Boyd Jr., a principal with Boyd Group, a relocation consulting firm based in Princeton, N.J., who isn't working on the project.

Chicago has the fifth-largest pool of tech workers in North America at 143,190, according to research by real estate firm CBRE, which tracks tech markets. New York is the biggest, at 246,180, followed closely by Washington (243,360) and Toronto (212,500). Chicago is sandwiched between Dallas (161,150) and Atlanta (138,810). Boston isn't far behind at 115,560.

In terms of growth, however, Chicago is in the middle of the pack, with its tech labor pool growing 33 percent between 2011 and 2015, about the same as New York, Dallas and Toronto, according to CBRE. Atlanta grew at a whopping 47 percent, while Washington increased just 10 percent.

Chicago ranks fourth in technical degrees awarded, behind New York, Washington and Los Angeles.

...

Although Amazon's list includes small cities with fast-growing tech populations that are popular with millennials—such as Nashville, Tenn., and Columbus, Ohio—“at the end of the day, they're going to pick a bigger city,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics. “I think it's going to be East Coast. The D.C. region is definitely in the lead. Outside of D.C., I think it would be Atlanta.”

Although big tech companies tend to have deep pockets, costs also will be important to Amazon, says Mark Sweeney, a principal at relocation consultant McCallum Sweeney in Greenville, S.C. “Chicago, like Atlanta and Dallas, can be more competitive on cost of labor and housing,” he said. Chicago has one of the lowest costs of housing among the 20 finalists, based on data from Trulia.com.
Source: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic..._source=NEWS08


A refreshingly positive article from Crain's, for once.
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  #965  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 8:27 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Article is good. Title is ???

In what sense are Chicago's most widely recognized strengths surprising? I'm kind of over Crain's TBH. Wish someone had the time and ambition to dethrone them as the go-to Chicago business magazine.
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  #966  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 10:52 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
Article is good. Title is ???

In what sense are Chicago's most widely recognized strengths surprising? I'm kind of over Crain's TBH. Wish someone had the time and ambition to dethrone them as the go-to Chicago business magazine.
I thought so too. “Surprising” strengths? Inferiority complex, anyone?

Too many old timers at Crains. They need some fresh voices
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  #967  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 6:39 PM
Halsted & Villagio Halsted & Villagio is offline
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Speaking of inferiority complexes.... I have long been a believer that Chicago has lost a bit of its swagger... in fact, I posted that in this forum more than a few times. There is a night and day difference between the Chicago confidence/bravado that I knew as a child versus what I hear and see now. The media has really done a number on us... and I do mean to include myself in that. Why? Well, I had a revelation THIS WEEK....

Upon hearing our new numbers for tourism for our fair city - over 54 Million - a new high for Chicago - I decided to check the Nationwide numbers for tourism. To my surprise Chicago RANKED 2ND IN TOURISM throughout the United States by most reputable sources. I was floored! That is when I knew that I had been infected... by the media.

When I went to check the nationwide tourism numbers I expected to see Chicago at somewhere around 5, or 7, or possibly even 10... or even higher ....based upon the constant bashing of Chicago that we hear. And yes, there were a couple of outliers (haters) out there in the media that put us way down the list... but you could see their obvious bias/agenda. But to see that most reputable sources had us at 2 was astounding to me. At 2 over LA. At 2 over Hollywood. At 2 over DC. At 2 over Miami. At 2 over Las Vegas. At 2 over those Sunbelt cities. At 2 over any city in the South. Simply amazing when you juxtapose that with what the media tells us every day.

And the last kicker - Chicago only had 6 million less visitors than the leader in tourism, NYC - which had like 60 Million. Based upon what the media tells us everyday you would think that gap would be 10/15 million or more. Nope, not the case.

I know this is off topic but I just had to bring this up. It helped put things in perspective for me and I thought I was always one of the positive ones.While we race for Amazon and while negativity abounds, I hope this puts things in little bit better perspective for you too. Chicago is NOT what the media tells us we are. We may or may not get Amazon but Chicago has a legit shot and will be fine with or without Amazon.
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  #968  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 8:03 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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^ Actually, well over 55 million visitors as of 2017
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  #969  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 9:05 PM
Halsted & Villagio Halsted & Villagio is offline
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^ Yep, I originally wrote 55 but went back and changed it because I saw a few estimates of 54point something or another (or maybe that was last years number) and wanted to be conservative with the number. But indeed, you are correct, even those estimates rounded up come out to 55. Or, like I just wrote, I could have gotten that number from the previous year - and the numbers have only gone up since then. Either way, nice catch

I should have known to round up. I guess that's why I am a lawyer and part-time developer (and repressed/would be architect - my dream job)... I didn't make it as aspiring architect because... as I guess you can see... numbers have never been my thing

Thanks TUP

Last edited by Halsted & Villagio; Jan 20, 2018 at 9:30 PM.
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  #970  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 9:16 PM
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I do remember when I was younger (highschool, college) there was an intense pride from Chicagoans about our city, and the boasting was probably to an annoying level for out of town visitors. Two things have given our collective self esteem a big hit: the resurgent murder rate (which is still WELL below previous highs in the 90's, and even lower than the early 00's, when Chicago's bravado was still full steam ahead) and the Illinois pension/budget crisis. Both of these issues have been a problem for the city for some time, but like Halsted&Villagio said, the national media pounced on them like vultures to fresh carrion. Its been a non stop beratement from the like of Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, etc that has caused Chicagoans to shift from prideful boasting to self deprecation, even if it is only jokingly. My hope is that this is a temporary state of affairs, and when both of these problems are abated/reduced, the national media can just f*ck off and allow us to lick our wounds.

I try not to think about it, but by the 2030 Census, Houston will most likely pass us up in city limits population. Never mind the fact that Houston is 3x larger than Chicago (627 sq mi vs 227 sq mi) or that the Chicago metro is 50% larger than that of Houston (9.6 million vs 6.3 million). The media is going to have a field day with that. CHICAGO IS OVER! Blah blah blah... Its going to make the shit storm going on now look like a day in the park.
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  #971  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 9:19 PM
Khantilever Khantilever is offline
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
He's mostly right here. IL's finances are trash, but so are like half of all states. Pensions kill us. Obviously those costs will compound faster than most other kinds of liabilities, but I think a lot of people with an understanding of the issue realize the pensions will not be paid out as promised. It's literally mathematically impossible.

That said, I don't think that'll have a major impact on Amazon's decision. They are a massive corporation with the resources to avoid paying any taxes at all. They are above the issue. It's those without means who are SOL.
And what’s more, the liability is already priced in at this point. While there is still some uncertainty over how much and when we’ll have to pay, there’s no longer any illusion (if there ever was) that there isn’t a huge pension liability. So apart from the uncertainity that’s left it’s kinda irrelevant to Amazon.
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  #972  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 10:16 PM
Halsted & Villagio Halsted & Villagio is offline
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Double post/no message...

Last edited by Halsted & Villagio; Jan 20, 2018 at 10:58 PM.
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  #973  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 10:57 PM
Halsted & Villagio Halsted & Villagio is offline
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Originally Posted by left of center View Post
I do remember when I was younger (highschool, college) there was an intense pride from Chicagoans about our city, and the boasting was probably to an annoying level for out of town visitors. Two things have given our collective self esteem a big hit: the resurgent murder rate (which is still WELL below previous highs in the 90's, and even lower than the early 00's, when Chicago's bravado was still full steam ahead) and the Illinois pension/budget crisis. Both of these issues have been a problem for the city for some time, but like Halsted&Villagio said, the national media pounced on them like vultures to fresh carrion. Its been a non stop beratement from the like of Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, etc that has caused Chicagoans to shift from prideful boasting to self deprecation, even if it is only jokingly. My hope is that this is a temporary state of affairs, and when both of these problems are abated/reduced, the national media can just f*ck off and allow us to lick our wounds.

I try not to think about it, but by the 2030 Census, Houston will most likely pass us up in city limits population. Never mind the fact that Houston is 3x larger than Chicago (627 sq mi vs 227 sq mi) or that the Chicago metro is 50% larger than that of Houston (9.6 million vs 6.3 million). The media is going to have a field day with that. CHICAGO IS OVER! Blah blah blah... Its going to make the shit storm going on now look like a day in the park.
Completely agree with this... and would add it's not just the "news" media... I would add print/tv/movies/radio to that as well.

.

Last edited by Halsted & Villagio; Jan 21, 2018 at 12:33 AM.
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  #974  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2018, 12:32 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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I've written about this a few times before - and yes, it's absolutely true. I grew up as an outsider - but when I grew up, we thought of Chicagoans as kind of arrogant about the city. My mom, being from NYC originally, kind of gave it crap too but had never visited. That continued until she visited and realized it's actually a good city. Today, it's actually annoying to read comments on pretty much every article - people are sometimes insanely negative now. I don't mean to say there's nothing wrong, to fix, etc - but a lot of people have a "grass is greener" mentality and many frankly haven't lived many other places and don't know better about various things.

I don't agree about when it started. This has been going on since at least when Obama got elected in 2008. Not that the homicide rate was really low, but it was MUCH lower in that time period than it was versus the 90s and even very early 2000s, and still lower than the 70s and 80s too - it started to turn around in the mid 2000s. Go back to 2013 or 2014 when Chicago had some of the lowest homicide numbers it had since the 1960s. The rate at the time was lower than that of Miami, Philadelphia, DC, etc yet Chicago was always in the news, even on low years for homicides. It has nothing to do with the uptick of 2016 - that's not when it started. It was around when Obama took office - maybe not right away but soon after.

I honestly don't even think that some people realized number wise how bad some areas were, so when micro news agencies like DNA Info and the open data started picking up a movement and all these negative articles about Chicago came out, people didn't know any better. I can remember people even in 2009 or 2013 or 2014 saying that things were out of control even worse than the 90s - but yet statistically they were MUCH lower than back then in every single crime category. People started reading about every little crime that occurred whereas 10 or 15 years before that, it wouldn't have ever made the news. Only the bigger things would have and they would have been all the less wise. It's both a good and a bad thing to have reporting like this - it depends on who is interpreting and reading it.

Also in 2010, the US Census released its data showing that the city had lost some 200K people since the last Census. People thought that the RECENT projects were that it must have lost so much. As I posted a few weeks ago, the Census estimated that Chicago actually lost most of these people between 2001 and 2004. With the exception of 2009, the US Census estimated from 2005 to 2010 that Chicago had around 2.7 Million to 2.75 Million people which is basically the same as today. However, I don't think this made much news and people were fine in the mid 2000s publicly into the late 2000s. Then this came out and people just assumed that it had lost most of its population at the end of the decade and also due to the recession. The US Census thinks otherwise, but again - this is what people saw - the 2010 Census and that got them down more. Then there was the Olympics thing when they lost in 2010. Making the final vote is amazing as is and maybe it's better the city lost it (not going to get into that now), but again - people start latching onto negative news.

Obama's term continued until not too long ago - the negative articles about Chicago continued and very rarely were they positive maybe outside of food scene things. It didn't help one bit that in 2016 the city's homicide count increased over 300 from the previous year - this kicked things into gear again, but in no way was that the beginning of this. It's been going on since at least 2009 or 2010 in my opinion.

People have these crazy stereotypes about the city until they visit it. I can't tell you how many people I've shown around from all over the world who had this dissonance because what they saw in real life was nothing like what they saw in the media. I do honestly think there is something that SOME of the media is doing to screw with the image of the city. I don't think it's all unwarranted, but at the same time they spin it in a way that makes people believe the city is worse off now than it has been which I think is a load of BS for most things. People even in the city bought it hook line and sinker.
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  #975  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2018, 3:52 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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This almost makes me feel better about the chances of Chicago - only slightly but this is actually almost positive. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but the richest real estate developer pitched Amazon on Irvine, CA by saying if they built it there, they would finance the entirety of HQ2. Irvine is no slouch - it is a suburb of LA, has over 250K people and one of the highest rates of college degree attainment of anywhere in the US. Amazon just turned down $5B - of course maybe the terms were that they wouldn't own it and that was a deal breaker. Who knows.

It'll be interesting to see who Amazon chooses - a lot of people are kind of jaded saying they'll choose whoever gives them the best incentive, but I'm kind of thinking that's not the case, though I do think incentives do matter somewhat here

http://www.businessinsider.com/amazo...irvine-2017-10
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  #976  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2018, 5:28 AM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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I guess I'm kinda annoyed by the whole HQ2 thing, and at the fact that so many people are putting so much hope into what is such a statistically unlikely, all or nothing affair.

I guess I just don't get it. There is no second place here. This is winner take all, like the Olympics. So even Chicago though could win, it's still not even remotely close to guaranteed, and probably not even a very high likelihood. And even if Chicago comes very close and Bezos chooses another city over it by a thin margin, we get nada. Zilch.

But instead of debating Chicago's chances, answer me this--how do some of you even get excited about this? How do you make plans like "if Chicago gets HQ2, we're gonna do such and such and see x, y, and z happening" with all that contained excitement, only to be set up for MASSIVE disappointment when it doesn't happen? Hell, I don't even get excited about a single highrise project until I'm confident it will get built.

Sorry, but I'm out of touch with so many of my fellow Forumers on the HQ2 thing. Not sure how you can salivate over something that has the potential to be such a huge disappointment.
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  #977  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2018, 6:32 AM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Guys you just need to accept the facts:

Chicago will land HQ2

Chicago will have a new 5,000 employee Google expansion

Chicago will have a new Apple Campus



Eventually the Coasts will become so expensive that people and businesses will start fleeing them like a warzone. There is only one serious city in the US off the coasts and that's Chicago. Oh and soon enough global warming will destroy all other cities as people flee to Chicago for our source of fresh water and Lake Michigan will be 80F all year round.
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  #978  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2018, 5:17 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I guess I'm kinda annoyed by the whole HQ2 thing, and at the fact that so many people are putting so much hope into what is such a statistically unlikely, all or nothing affair.

I guess I just don't get it. There is no second place here. This is winner take all, like the Olympics. So even Chicago though could win, it's still not even remotely close to guaranteed, and probably not even a very high likelihood. And even if Chicago comes very close and Bezos chooses another city over it by a thin margin, we get nada. Zilch.

But instead of debating Chicago's chances, answer me this--how do some of you even get excited about this? How do you make plans like "if Chicago gets HQ2, we're gonna do such and such and see x, y, and z happening" with all that contained excitement, only to be set up for MASSIVE disappointment when it doesn't happen? Hell, I don't even get excited about a single highrise project until I'm confident it will get built.

Sorry, but I'm out of touch with so many of my fellow Forumers on the HQ2 thing. Not sure how you can salivate over something that has the potential to be such a huge disappointment.
I don't think people are putting so much hope into it. It's a wish that people hope comes true, but most people maybe outside of the public side of the mayor, are realistic in some way about it.

I would say that you aren't any different than most people - out of touch is a good way to put it, but maybe not in the sense that you are talking about. Issue is that most people don't really understand this industry in reality and what it takes to staff up, get resources, what types of people and talent are needed, and where they are. There's a ton of articles out there that show this - anybody who's ever managed, had to hire, etc for a tech company or tech department of a company can see this. A lot of them just really don't know what they're talking about. A lot of the articles also talk as if fully tech workers are the only thing that need to be hired. That's non sense - with 50,000 employees, you are going to be having a lot of different areas covered in your hiring from software developers to marketing to managers to business analysts to purely financial people etc. Amongst everything, you are going to need management and while hiring someone with tech experience is a definite plus, depending on the structure and level of management, it may not be necessary.

The above reason is why I think Chicago has a good chance to land in the top 5 or 6 of this. My money is on the following in the top 5:

NYC, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Boston, and Chicago. I think that Atlanta has a decent outside shot due to the increase of the city and it being a little more urban than somewhere like Dallas, which I predict will lose major points on their lack of walkable areas, public transit, and urbanity. Miami may have an outside shot like Atlanta too, but I think their lower higher-education level will shoot them in the foot. Pittsburgh could be a shoe-in too. It will basically come down to urban areas with walkable parts, public transit that have a very varied economy and are able to attract people to move there. No matter what you think, Chicago does continue to attract people. The issue there in the numbers you see is that there's almost as many people leaving as coming in. Believe me, if the number of people coming in halved, you'd see some pretty big population loss. This isn't happening - the city continues to attract people and the types of people who are coming play more into Amazon's hands, considering that Chicago now has the highest educational attainment of any city in the top 5 largest - and even just 3 or 4 years ago it wasn't #1.

I don't know if you read those or are just like "How can Chicago compete with the big guns!?" - but I think that's pretty much misguided and almost plays hand in hand with what we were just talking about with the media. Not to say that Chicago is the top or top 3 when it comes to this stuff, but it's a lot stronger than most people realize.

I also disagree about if you come in 2nd you "lose." Sure, you lose out on a potential good economic prize - but coming in the top 5 or 10 for something as big as this - especially if you are top 5 - will make people take your city much more seriously in this industry and business in general. I guarantee you if Chicago didn't win but Amazon released their top 5 or whatever and Chicago was in it, you'd see a lot more interest from companies looking to open offices in Chicago. I will put a lot of money on that.
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  #979  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2018, 9:31 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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I'd rather come in second across the board than first in some areas and downright atrocious in others. Seriously, I'd rather have the second highest number of tech jobs and be the second most affordable big city than be first in tech jobs and the least affordable city in the country which is where the Bay Area is headed.
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  #980  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2018, 10:37 PM
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Yes, being really good but not necessarily #1 in a lot of different things can be better than being #1 in one thing but not near the top 3 in anything else. Of course, the Amazon thing and coming in 2nd place isn't going to right away bring any jobs. However, indirectly companies will start to say "We should look into why this place was ranked so highly" when they're looking to expand or move. There is no doubt about this.
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