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  #1921  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted by emathias View Post
Detroit's finances got so terrible that it had to file for bankruptcy to address them.
LOL where do you think Chicago and the entire state of Illinois is going? Have fun with that.

Despite the dirty bankruptcy word it turned out to be best bankruptcy outcome a city could ask for (favorable judges were helpful), there's an over 60 million budget million surplus today.

Your whole analysis puts more of a negative spin on Detroit's city proper decline compared to Pitt's but the truth is Detroit sits on much more regional wealth, amenities (besides transit) and workforce resources than Pittsburgh ever will. Pittsburgh is more centralized with it's universities, so the numbers are a bit softer but that's about it.

I don't see Pittsburgh's ability to draw talent being much different, in Detroit, there would be limitless family-friendly options in the suburbs for the types that wanted that sort of thing and the urban techies would have multiple neighborhoods around the core to choose from. Educated millennials aren't really raving about Pittsburgh the way homers on here want everybody to believe, I would know since I am one but also the numbers prove that Pittsburgh's regional college retention rate is one of the lowest, about 50%.
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  #1922  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
These are my favorite:

Boston — Basically a bar fight that turned into a city.

Northern Virginia — Too vague.

Philadelphia — Biggest selling point is a cracked bell.

Pittsburgh — Average life expectancy is 14.


Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
I assumed my post would ruffle some feathers, but I was interested in hearing what people from Pittsburgh had to say. I actually like Pittsburgh and think it's a very charming city. The rivers and hills are beautiful.

Pittsburgh has its fair share of blight. Detroit's blight is more pronounced, but its MSA is close to double Pittsburgh's. It also peaked at nearly 2,000,000 whereas Pittsburgh never crossed 700,000. Pittsburgh certainly has beautiful neighborhoods. Squirrel Hill is wonderful. Again, I'm not saying this to belittle Pittsburgh and it's strengths, but I'm genuinely surprised that it is still a consideration for HQ2 and Detroit is not.
I don't think feathers were ruffled. It seems people were just providing you with facts, figuring that you were unaware based on the content of your post.

You're obviously free to remain genuinely surprised... but based on what's been related to you by myself and others, maybe instead you should consider that Pittsburgh just simply has a lot more of what Amazon is seeking in a headquarters city than Detroit does.
     
     
  #1923  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2018, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post

I don't see Pittsburgh's ability to draw talent being much different...
But it's obvious that Amazon does.


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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Educated millennials aren't really raving about Pittsburgh the way homers on here want everybody to believe, I would know since I am one...
Well since you are one then I guess you must be hanging out with all the other "educated millennials" at the Ace Hotel in Detroit a lot..... oops.




Please don't make this about Detroit not getting selected. I'm sure no one really wants to hear it.
     
     
  #1924  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 12:21 AM
JoeMusashi JoeMusashi is offline
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
In many ways, I'd like to see Amazon pick Toronto.

For one, it would be great to see Bezos give a big middle finger to Trump and say publicly to him, "I'm the richest man on the planet, you fat, inherited money, ass pimple, and your stupid immigration policies (among many, many other faults) made me choose to locate in Canada instead of the US".
Amazon planning on hiring people primarily from Sudan, El Salvador, Somalia, Syria, and Haiti?
     
     
  #1925  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 12:21 AM
skyscraperpage17 skyscraperpage17 is offline
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Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
Stay classy Chicago.
     
     
  #1926  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 12:22 AM
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Originally Posted by ScreamShatter View Post
Looking at all the proposals, it seems to me Chicago and Philly are in a league of their own on this one because of location, educated population, research universities, quality of life, housing prices, transportation, culture, potential for Amazon to grow in the area, and proposed locations. This RFP really seems custom created for what these two cities have to offer.

That said, I can see the appeal of areas around DC too, but I still don't think they have all the benefits of Chicago and Philly. My money is on one of these two cities or northern VA, and I feel Philly might have the edge if:

1. The city government builds a strong working relationship with Amazon and
2. If the rumor about Amazon going into pharma is true. Philly has Comcast and Eds and Meds (include higher ed and private companies) as the main industries and that's a unique value proposition to provide to Amazon.
Agee greatly with that sentiment. The primary areas where they diverge is the location. Both have locations the other can't match. Chicago's airlinks with Seattle/S.F./internationally are l a good deal better than Philly.

That said Phillys position between both NYC and DC is a huge advantage Chicago can't match. Both have large regional hinterlands where they can attract regional talent though I would give the edge to Philly in that regard.

Both also have huge swaths of developable areas close to downtown and serviced by transit. An ability for Amazon to build a city within the city without dominating the city at a price that won't be prohibitive for them or their workers.

I would handicap either Phil or Chi have a combined 33% of getting the nod over the field.
     
     
  #1927  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 12:26 AM
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Originally Posted by emathias View Post
Pittsburgh's decline, as bad as it has been, was nothing compared to Detroit's.

Detroit has lost 64% of its population and is still losing people at close to 1% per year and since 1990 has lost over 1% per year on average, with 2000-2010 being especially bad with 2.5% per year leaving. Detroit's finances got so terrible that it had to file for bankruptcy to address them. In 2010 the median family income was about $31,000. Per-capita income was about $14,110. About 1/3 of Detroit families are below the poverty line.

Pittsburgh has lost 55% of its population but while still slightly declining, the population has mostly stabilized now. Since 1990 the average has been less than 1% per year with population since 1990 being much more stable than Detroit. It had some serious financial issues, but has managed its way out of the worst of it without resorting to bankruptcy. In the median family income was $38,795 with per-capita income at $18,816. About 15% of Pittsburgh families are below the poverty line.

Additionally, Pittsburgh has been widely recognized as managing a transition from an industrial economy to a more advanced, modern economy. Detroit has been a poster child for pretty much the opposite of how a city should manage such a transition. It is, finally, gaining some traction is doing that, mainly due to the dedicated work of a few civic-minded corporate leaders who have intentionally focused on locating and expanding in downtown Detroit. But it is way behind what Pittsburgh has done and continues to do. To note something specific to the HQ2 competition, despite Detroit being over double the population of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's transit system carries an average of nearly 2 1/2 times as many riders on an average day, indicating that transit is very much better integrated to local culture in Pittsburgh - for cities outside of the Northeast Corridor, Pittsburgh generally only trails Chicago in transit use per capita.
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Not to be a homer, but have you ever been to Pittsburgh? I've lived in both cities, and besides a shared industrial past and decline they have very little in common.

The biggest difference between the two is that Detroit had the highest white flight out of any major city in the Rust Belt, while Pittsburgh had the smallest. Actually it's the only sizable majority-white U.S. city outside of the Pacific Northwest. Lots of stable middle-class (even rich) areas survived right inside of city through the worst period of industrial decline. Along with a lot of 19th century working-class white neighborhoods which were primed for gentrification.

Pittsburgh has a very different downtown than Detroit as well. Downtown employment has been stable at roughly 100,000 since the 1950s. There was never a decamping of office jobs into the suburbs. Due to to quirks of how the city set up its parking policy, downtown has virtually no surface parking lots, and garages are very expensive, meaning less than half of people drive to work.

Also, the Pittsburgh MSA never had an Ann Arbor. Pittsburgh is only college town of the Pittsburgh MSA unless you consider very small towns way out in the boonies. We have a big public university (Pitt) a private STEM-focused university (CMU) and several smaller private schools (Duquense, Chatham, Carlow, and Point Park University) all within city limits. This has given the city a lot of stability - particularly as enrollment in higher education continued to climb.

Finally, out of the cities on the list, aside from NYC, Chicago, DC, Philly, Boston, and Newark, Pittsburgh has the highest transit utilization by a good deal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
First, let's just get this out of the way. Pittsburgh (particularly Pittsburgh proper... not old steel mill towns 20-40 miles away from Pittsburgh that get lumped in as "Pittsburgh") is nothing like Detroit as far as levels of decline and large-scale abandonment go. Pittsburgh's urban neighborhoods have largely remained intact... much more like one can see on the east coast.

Second, Amazon specifically told Detroit in a call to let them know their bid was not selected because they simply did not have the ability to attract the type of talent that Amazon is looking for (aside from the lack of transit). Pittsburgh does have that ability, and has been attracting the talent that Amazon seeks for a decade now... with major increases in the last 5 years... to places like Google, Uber, Apple, Bosch, SAP, CSC, Duolingo, Argo AI, Facebook, etc, etc.

That strong university/talent pipeline component they were seeking... Pittsburgh has two of the nation's top research universities in the core of the city, one of which is arguably the top school for computer science on the planet, at both the undergrad and grad levels. Throw in the significant tech presence already here (and has been here for over a century... like tech long, long before tech was "tech") some transit as far as light rail and BRT goes, and you certainly have a much more fertile environment than Detroit has.

Though I think the fact that Amazon actually called Detroit is a good sign. Supposedly, they didn't call other cities. At least that's what NPR tells me today... but you know NPR, could be fake news.
Very good posts.

Economic issues aside, the leaders and urban planners in Detroit and Michigan virtually balkanized their city to death. Amazon's rejection of it is simply the chickens coming home to roost.
     
     
  #1928  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 12:32 AM
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Originally Posted by nomarandlee View Post
Both have large regional hinterlands where they can attract regional talent though I would give the edge to Philly in that regard..
I wouldn’t. Philly has many A grade cities nearby that it has to compete with for said talent, and I’m betting that talent would be more expensive.

Chicago is really the alpha dog of its region. And it’s a huge hinterland with a bottomless pit of college grads.
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  #1929  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 12:52 AM
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Why the shortlist of 20 sucks

The shortlist might as well have been the original list.

It really didn’t narrow down the list, or all of the speculative talk, or reduced the mystery—at all. All of the major contenders are in there.

They should've had a shortlist of 10. That would’ve been more interesting.
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  #1930  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 1:10 AM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I wouldn’t. Philly has many A grade cities nearby that it has to compete with for said talent, and I’m betting that talent would be more expensive.

.
Not really. Lots of people are moving from NYC and DC to Philly -- its much more affordable here. You can buy a 2000 sq ft house for $350k - $450k here whereas in those cities, you can't get anything for that amount. So people are willing to have lower salaries for the quality of life improvement. Literally, my entire block is people from DC and NYC.

Companies in Philly have no problem attracting talent. There's no shortage of that here. And the schools in Philly's area are unparalleled except for Boston. But the one thing that Philly can really claim over everyone is simply the best location -- for $10 you can get on a bus and go to NYC or DC in around 2 hours. In 45 minutes, you can be at the ocean. It's been an underrated city for a long time, but its changing so much for the better the past 15 years. I think Philly and Chicago are by far the top 2 candidates, but I really think Philly has a slight edge.
     
     
  #1931  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 1:15 AM
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Originally Posted by nomarandlee View Post
Agee greatly with that sentiment. The primary areas where they diverge is the location. Both have locations the other can't match. Chicago's airlinks with Seattle/S.F./internationally are l a good deal better than Philly.

That said Phillys position between both NYC and DC is a huge advantage Chicago can't match. Both have large regional hinterlands where they can attract regional talent though I would give the edge to Philly in that regard.

Both also have huge swaths of developable areas close to downtown and serviced by transit. An ability for Amazon to build a city within the city without dominating the city at a price that won't be prohibitive for them or their workers.

I would handicap either Phil or Chi have a combined 33% of getting the nod over the field.
Totally agree.

Most of time, I'd say the sunbelt cities or NYC have the advantage, but if the RFP is exactly what Amazon is looking for then Philly and Chicago are literally the only two cities that satisfy almost every facet of the request.

Another interesting point about both Philly and Chicago is they have shipping ports. That's another interesting dynamic for Amazon as they continue to explore logistics too.
     
     
  #1932  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 1:50 AM
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Initially when I heard about this I was kind of hoping they would select Boston as the winner and that definitely could happen especially based on recent moves by Amazon to greatly increase their presence in Boston/Cambridge, but in some ways because of the recent moves over the past several years by Amazon to expand in the area I am not actually that concerned over whether or not Boston is selected for HQ2. The most recent expansions do seem to hint that they are planning on a major expansion starting now and continuing for several years with the first of a series of expansions in Boston with the addition of 900 workers in the Fort Point area of Boston at 253 Summer street and they are in talks to secure an additional 500,000 square feet of new office space in seaport square this coming year with the option for another 500,000 square feet in another building in the future.
     
     
  #1933  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 3:14 AM
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Boston is a possibility, but I just don't see it as a good fit for Amazon.

I know things have changed a bit since I lived there 7 years ago, but the culture there is very resistant to dynamic change - for good reasons and bad. I just can't see an influx of techies mixing well with so many old-money areas where slight building modifications set off a firestorm, let alone the sort of tear downs that techies are so fond of along the West Coast, in Austin, etc.

As for some other favorites, well as a B10 grad (Wisconsin), frankly I don't know that that demographic is as big an asset as Rahm thinks it is for Chicago. Diversity is a huge issue in the big state schools in the midwest, particularly for those that end up drawn to Chicago's north side.

I also see the lack of diversity being an issue for Pittsburgh. Of course, these are minor considerations in the scheme of things, but they would come up with a final 5 list.

I've always said Austin and Dallas are my favorites, but seeing how clustered the final 20 picks are in the northeast, I'll add Philly to my top 3. I think it has the best chance in the east.
     
     
  #1934  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 3:19 AM
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Originally Posted by JoeMusashi View Post
Amazon planning on hiring people primarily from Sudan, El Salvador, Somalia, Syria, and Haiti?
It's not so much what Trump is doing as much as what Trudeau is doing, so to speak. The Global Skills Strategy and Express Entry Programs in Canada are way easier for employers to use to hire global talent than the HB2 program in the USA.

Canada also has a feature called Provincial Nominee programs, in which the federal government essentially gives blocks of work visas to local governments to hand out to foreign nationals as each province sees fit for the economic development strategies. Ontario (the province Toronto is in) could more or less give Amazon visa allocations to hire foreigners as part of an incentives package through this program.
     
     
  #1935  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 5:31 AM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
It's not so much what Trump is doing as much as what Trudeau is doing, so to speak. The Global Skills Strategy and Express Entry Programs in Canada are way easier for employers to use to hire global talent than the HB2 program in the USA.

Canada also has a feature called Provincial Nominee programs, in which the federal government essentially gives blocks of work visas to local governments to hand out to foreign nationals as each province sees fit for the economic development strategies. Ontario (the province Toronto is in) could more or less give Amazon visa allocations to hire foreigners as part of an incentives package through this program.
Not to be a contrarian again, but as others have already mentioned Amazon's planning is much much more long term than that. They have to factor future Harpers and Obamas, as well as Trumps and Trudeaus. Immigration policies are pretty fleeting when judged by the timeframes of Amazon's road map for their future.

You don't make long term plans mostly based on the fact that as of right now, it's relatively easy to enter Country A and relatively hard to enter Country B. Those things can and do basically change / turn around on a dime in democracies. A brand new government with different views can always be at most a few years away. And even the same government can modify their policies on a whim, if they feel they should.
     
     
  #1936  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 5:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
for all the people claiming that transit is SO important to amazon, i really want an explanation for indy.

indy is easily one of the least transit-friendly metro areas over 2 million people in the entire nation, yet they made it to round 2.

something doesn't add up here.

Guys it's not as if every single entrant that makes it to round two scored 100% in every category. Clearly Amazon can't have it all in every city and clearly they aren't going to pick all 20 cities. Obviously this is about which city meets the most of their criteria as much as possible. That means some cities will be lacking in some areas and way over compensating in others. Indy has no transit to speak of but is radically pro business. What it lacks in transit it makes up for in being a total corporate whore. At the end of the day it will be some place like Chicago or Philly which scores good or great in almost every category or a place like Atlanta or Dallas that is poor in on or two categories (like transit) but exceptional in the rest of the categories.
     
     
  #1937  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 6:39 AM
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
In many ways, I'd like to see Amazon pick Toronto.

For one, it would be great to see Bezos give a big middle finger to Trump and say publicly to him, "I'm the richest man on the planet, you fat, inherited money, ass pimple, and your stupid immigration policies (among many, many other faults) made me choose to locate in Canada instead of the US".
Our immigration policies are more lenient than Canada.... Sippin that Vox koolaid a bit too much my friend.
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  #1938  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 6:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
Did steely dan write this? Uncannily similar. Lol
     
     
  #1939  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
The shortlist might as well have been the original list.

It really didn’t narrow down the list, or all of the speculative talk, or reduced the mystery—at all. All of the major contenders are in there.

They should've had a shortlist of 10. That would’ve been more interesting.
Agreed. Every city that ever had a realistic shot has made the "short list", plus others.
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  #1940  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2018, 1:51 PM
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Originally Posted by emathias View Post
Average daily transit ridership in Pittsburgh is nearly 2 1/2 times as high as Detroit, despite Detroit having a population of over double that of Pittsburgh. So for some cities, I think part of the consideration may have been how integral transit is to a city's daily life. Transit is really not part of life in Detroit, but it is pretty integral to Pittsburgh - in some transit stats they only trail Chicago for cities outside of the Northeast corridor.

That doesn't really account for Indy, though, since Indy has average daily ridership of about 1/7th that of Pittsburgh despite being nearly three times the population.
I never questioned why Pittsburgh is being considered. There are other head-scratchers on the list that don't pass the tests that they used to eliminate Detroit.
     
     
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