Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff
roccerfeller, it is neat to compare the lists you have shown. As early as 2008, just 3 years ago Winnipeg was forecasting our CMA population of approximately 760,000 by 2021. This is where we are at today in 2011. We have definitely picked up the pace.
It would be nice to hit the 800,000 CMA mark by 2015 as predicted in this years forecast.
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Yes, 800k by 2015 is very realistic, and I think it will be closer to 810k.
My estimates for Winnipeg CMA is, at the very least 10k-12k per year avg; given hypothetical growth increments in addition to that, I envision something like this:
Current CMA: ~765k
2012 +10k (~775k) / 1.013%
2013 +11.4k (~786.4) / 1.0147%
2014 +12.6k (~799k) / 1.0199%
2015 +13.8k (~812.8k) / 1.0173%
= ~812.8k
(numbers are based on current raw percentages where as of 2008, the population increase was less than 1.01% [1.008% - 1.009%], whereas currently it has grown to 1.011-> 1.0122 - > 1.0126%; I think it will start getting to 1.015%, 1.019%, 1.02+%)
So on the
high end, we could be at even 815-820k; optimistic but the way we are moving right now I predict a growth rate at 1.02% becoming the norm, trending one day towards 1.05-1.06% which would be amazing.
But keep in mind we haven't even entered our "boom" phase yet; its still a progression towards that. Winnipeg's "boom" won't be anything like the Albertan cities or even Saskatoon & Regina's (rates); rather it will be a more steady, consistent pace...which should incrementally go up each and every year. We're progressing towards it but never quite hitting it. Perhaps we'll feel it once we pass the 800k mark? Consider during the same time we stabilized at ~10k per year, cities like Calgary dropped from 32k to 18k. The larger we grow, the more momentum we gain, and the population continues to stabilize at a new mark.
Once we pass the 800k mark, we will be something like a point of no return, if you will. That is when the momentum of the city is such that a "new" bottom line is set. Winnipeg will be in a very good position 30 years from now as a city to live in, with a stable economy; I believe perceptions about the city will be quite different then. The biggest thing Winnipeg has that no other city in this country, outside of the territories, can truly claim is that all the economy is centred around one major city in Manitoba. That will have some very strong long term effects methinks.
I think its going to start going to baseline at 15k per year after that, which in 5 years would be huge - a 5k increase on a baseline? That would be something (for Winnipeg)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman
I think it would be pretty difficult to entice people from southern Ontario to Manitoba.
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True. But some may have no choice; I see it a lot with some people I meet regularly, though it is mainly people relocating from Alberta believe it or not. Alberta and Ontario ex-pats are becoming more common in Winnipeg, and within the French community there are many (about 70 or so /year) from France coming which I find intriguing.
Fact is, Winnipeg is affordable and has job opportunities; a lot of these unemployed individuals are moving here with their hands cuffed out of need. And also to Saskatchewan, where most seem to be going, and is slightly more affordable than Winnipeg.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisallard5454
Yeah, but most people live in there own little worlds. I rarely hear good things about people from down here about Winnipeg, excluding of course the return of the Jets. Most people are ignorant about how Winnipeg is doing. Most people don't pay attention to the influx of amazing things happening outside a city of their own. When I tell people here that I am moving back there, their response always falls on the lines of, "Are you f---ing crazy? Why would you want to move there? It is way to cold up there for me." Most of whom have never been, and will never go to Winnipeg, but hold on to their ignorant bias.
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Its strange how perceptions have changed over time; in the first half of the 1900's, Winnipeg was an "it" place. It had a very strong reputation around the country. Yet by the 1980s and 1990s that had completely changed to being a "cheap" town, where everyone wants a "deal" which is still echoed in many circles today. It will take decades before the perception changes again, but it will change. I don't see Winnipeg or the two main Saskatchewan cities going through the huge slowdown they did during the second half of the 1900's again, because of how their economies are shaping up. The premiers are smart. The leaders know they need to create a strong foundation, as strong foundations are more important than whatever is built on top of it. That will be key for the long term.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dougler306
I never been to the peg, but it looks nice in the pics of seen on here. Im one of those sterotypical why would i live in winnipeg, then again i live in regina, just seems like your goin even further down the ladder if u move to the peg, even tho i do go there for jets games when i can cuz calgary sucks!! I just the think the 3 paraire citys, peg, stoon, and regina all get looked at like that, thats why its hard for our citys to grow consistantly.
Regina's boom is long lasting, i think our city has the potential to catch stoon in population in the next 10years( Just my 2c)
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I agree that Regina will have a long lasting boom, as will Saskatoon, but these cities still have better days in front of them if you can believe it. I also think Regina has a good shot pass Saskatoon in population akin to how Calgary passed Edmonton, just because Regina seems to be the corporate HQ choice in Saskatchewan, but unlike Calgary, Regina is also a provincial capital and thus has the crown corporation focus. So something that played to Edmonton's favor might not play to Saskatoon's. That said, it won't happen for a long time...I'm not sure 10 years from now Regina will be bigger...I think Saskatoon will still be. Maybe in 20-30 years. It took Calgary a long long time to overtake Edmonton. But these two cities will co-exist quite well I think. Saskatoon will always be the more artsy, "cultural" student-oriented city too, just because that is one of its core cultures. Its going to be similar to the Calgary-Edmonton relationship during the 1940's-80's, till now, I feel.
Though your post confused the hell outta me: You've never been to the Peg, but you come here for Jets games when you can?
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I have to laugh at this comment. saskatoon is on pace for 3000 homes this year and a pop. increase of a little over 7000 people. and its not oil and gas driving the economy its potash for the most part. i have to laugh at these comments from winnipegers
- we got enough people to be a city yet?
- nope. what do you suggest we do?
- Well we better get some Morden.
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