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Originally Posted by Whalleyboy
Thats not a good argument point there cause if you go down fraser your making people in newton and south surrey miss out which alone(going by the numbers on the cities site) is 201320. Thats not including people in north delta and white rock.
Plus if you look at the cities plans there aren't really any plans to really grow the fleetwood area. But newton and south surrey are huge growing areas and only set to expand rapidly for a while. If you look at the future numbers the city is projecting the top three in order for population are newton first, whalley second, south surrey third. Skytrain would better suit this route going to newton while LRT would suit going out to langley
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A station at Fraser Highway and 152 St would actually improve transit services (marginally) for many residents in East Newton.
But perhaps one of the major points of my argument was lost, and that is not just the number of people who are helped by RRT expansion, but the magnitude of the change they receive. Think of it as an equation, people helped multiplied by the average time saved. And translink does think of this (as it is a pretty standard measure of utility), with the RRT down Fraser having the largest total time savings per year for the people of Metro Vancouver.
For almost all residents of Newton, the time savings of RRT down King George would be mere minutes at best, while everyone in the rest of Surrey experiences no change at all. By going down Fraser some in Newton do experience some change still, but the change for the entire population of Fleetwood is significant. Buses have an OK time on King George as the traffic is light. Buses on Fraser Highway have a much longer distance to travel and frequently get stuck in bad traffic.
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Originally Posted by invisibleairwaves
You know, I used to feel pretty strongly about the Fraser Highway vs. King George debate, but honestly at this point I've given up on RRT expansion in Surrey being a worthwhile issue at all. Until the city smartens up and stops allowing or building idiotic, anti-pedestrian, transit-unfriendly projects along its major corridors, neither route should even be considered for rapid transit. And judging by the sheer number of brand-new strip malls and subdivisions along both corridors, it's fairly obvious that this change isn't going to happen any time soon.
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I'm sorry, but I have to say "so what?"
Skytrain is an integrated, inter-regional transit system. We have one of the most effective bus feeder systems in the world. If everyone walked to Skytrain today, it would have horrible ridership. Therefore Skytrain is not 100% dependent on high density town centers to work.
Today, trains leave Surrey full. That's 4 stations that pack trains at the peak hours. That ridership isn't 100% people that live at the stations. Most of the ridership takes buses to get there. And that is not just a Surrey phenomenon. Look at how busy the bus loops are at stations like Metrotown, Edmonds, Lougheed, 22nd St and others. Even Nanaimo and 29th Ave are busy stations, yet I don't see many towers around them.
And how many towers surround Commercial Drive, Sapperton, Braid, Production Way, Lake City Way, Sperling, and even Holdem or Renfrew or Rupert? High Rise towers are not the only way to achieve density around stations and ridership. Metrotown isn't a busy station because of the rich people towers along Kingsway, but because of the lowrise, low income apartment blocks to the south.
Also, you don't need the development in place first. How many towers were along the Millennium line before it was built? Gilmore was nonexistent. Lougheed was a fraction of what it is today. And what was New Westminster and Joyce before 1985?
Yes, Coquitlam is built up in anticipation of Evergreen, but don't put the cart before the horse. They have been promised the Evergreen line for decades. DECADES! They have been told exactly where it will be (or at least that it will pass the Coquitlam Center area 100% for sure). They have built up density based on the promise that the Evergreen line was going to be FINISHED 10 years ago. As well, that hasn't stopped Coquitlam from it's own suburban sprawl. SFH climb the freaking mountain as far as the eye can see! All in the last 20 years. Yet, those homes, as suburban as they are, will still feed the Evergreen line with ridership.
Now look at Surrey. We can't even say for sure that Surrey will get further Rapid Transit, let alone where it might go. How is Surrey supposed to plan for that? "Hey Surrey, here is our Rapid Transit plan for you: meh. Now get ready for it." So what were they supposed to do? Housing developments are driven by the market, and who in this market (even at the height) is going to drop $300,000+ on a condo out in the suburbs, miles from the freeway, where there are no official transit plans. Profits were maximzed by townhomes and SFH. But even so, the newer developments from the past 10 years are significantly higher density than the Surrey specials from the 90's. Even monster homes have at least 2 suites in them, and are typically shared by a large family.
Richmond wasn't built on it's transit plans, it was built on market demand. There was empty land that alot of people wanted, and the best way for developers to maximize profits was condo towers. And because it is significantly closer to Downtown (and has a strong Asian community feel for residents looking for that) it was an easier sell, even without 100% guaranteed transit plans. Since the Canada Line (RAV) was announced as happening, development skyrocketed.
So without an official transit plan from the province, it is hard to focus development and demand (and thus the prices required to fuel the construction costs) on specific centers. In this reality, Surrey has done a good job recently of mixed use development. Clayton, while sprawlish, is more dense than many parts of Vancouver and Burnaby proper. Fraser Highway is lined almost exclusively with lowrise condos or town/row homes.
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Originally Posted by Whalleyboy
I'd would actually bet on it being fast for much of N.Delta to travel to skytrain from 96 onwards since they would just have to take a bus down to king george and not all the way to scott road like what current buses do.
Also why do you only think about people from white rock going to Downtown. What if people want to go to new west or metrotown or even maybe broadway? After all we don't live in place where dt is the only destination.
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But still, you then have to subtract the number of people in South Surrey who wouldn't benefit from RT expansion from the total. Not everyone goes downtown, but a huge number do (enough to clog 6 lanes worth of crossings over the Fraser). The buses bound for the Canada Line are easily as busy as buses bound for Surrey. Therefore you have split demand.
In Fleetwood and Cloverdale, everyone would interested by Skytrain. There are not other significant commute paterns that Skytrain down Fraser doesn't meet in some capacity and improve over what exists today.
In SS, many existing transit riders will KEEP riding the buses to Canada Line and never touch an extension to Newton. Meanwhile almost every single existing transit rider today in Fleetwood and Cloverdale (and Langley) would benefit and ride Skytrain down Fraser (at least a few stations) as almost every bus rider travels down Fraser today at some point.
Skytrain down Fraser Hwy fullfills everyone's needs. Skytrain to Newton fulfills a specific market (smaller subset of society).
I'm not saying Skytrain to Newton would be a lost cause and waste of money. But in a world where one is likely to be built instead of the other (or at least decades before) then my feeling is that going down the Fraser Highway would be a bigger benefit to Metro Vancouver as a whole.
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Originally Posted by twoNeurons
Something to be considered.
RRT down Fraser Highway is essentially Surrey's Expo Line. The SkyTrain Expo line is successful because it was built through largely industrial areas and TOD was built around it. The less successful areas were already established. Fraser Hwy has a lot of space for TOD. More space than Newtown and Guildford.
In addition, Newton is close the to the highway into Richmond (Alex Fraser) and Guildford is close the the #1 highway. A Fraser Highway extension would have less competition with cars.
Although I like the idea of traversing along 104th, I'm warming up to a straight shot down Fraser Highway. Excellent post, BCPhil.
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And not just with TOD around the stations, but it provides a high speed backbone through the region that bisects the bus grid, much like the Expo Line in Vancouver and Burnaby. There are a lot of areas that are just a short bus ride away from Fraser Highway that can be developed higher density.
And yes, there is much less competition from highways along the corridor. Traffic is horrible on Fraser, and the number lights really slows down riding long distances on the bus. At least today, King George flows comparatively well to most roads in the Metro. Skytrain down Fraser would have the biggest time savings over driving or riding the bus compared to other routes. And thus you are more likely to win over current drivers as they see Skytrain fly by at 80km/h while they crawl along at 30km/h, and waiting at lights. Many people avoid transit because it is a crazy long, crowded bus ride with a lot of passups; most would rather go broke driving that live that hellish life. Replace it with 5 to 10 minute bus rides to high speed inter city metro that connects to every other point in the region: problem solved.