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  #1021  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 3:53 AM
geotag277 geotag277 is offline
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I misread that.
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  #1022  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 12:26 PM
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The Trudeau administration has done it and abolished the LIFO policy. This took a lot of strength - it's reversing an unfair policy inflicted on us, and doing so at the expense of the Maritimes. We generally lose in these situations because we matter so little in federal politics. But this time they did what's right, and honored international fishing norms such as adjacency (those living closest to a resource should be its primary beneficiaries). Thanks, Trudeau! We're swift running out of glaring, grievous injustices of federal policy. Half the people here will have to form an entirely new opinion of what it means to be ruled from Ottawa.



It's still bad news overall - the shrimp stock is in freefall, partially due to overfishing. The offshore fleet harvests year-round, even during spawning season, so it's no surprise really. The hope now is that the stocks will have a chance to recover with the offshore fleet losing half of its quota, but overfishing is never the only factor so we'll have to see. The commercial cod fishery will almost certainly be returning in a limited capacity in the next several years - and fishermen are hoping shrimp can tide them over until then. Provincially, the big thing now is working to prepare the inshore fleet for a return to cod fishing, but with more modern practices (e.g. gill nets need to go). There's an inaccurate assumption in Newfoundland that our cod is famous and respected. In reality, it's always had a poor reputation - in the past because it only ever reached major markets dried and salted, and in the 1900s because of its poor quality (much of the fish was so mangled by our harvesting methods that it could be used for little other than fish sticks). Yet the quality of the fish here, if harvested correctly, is objectively among the best in the world. So the government, and fishery marketers, etc., are all very keen to get fishermen using modern harvesting methods, and designing a new market for the fish. We have a chance to establish a brand, and a rich history to build upon for that purpose, especially in Portugal and Spain where there is often knowledge of and affinity for Newfoundland cod. Jamaica, on the other hand, uses our salted cod in its traditional dishes so they'll want something like we used to provide. A good example is the partnership between cod fishermen on Fogo Island and restaurants in Toronto:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfou...fish-1.3371146

So there's some limited hope for certain regions of rural Newfoundland in the relatively near future.
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Last edited by SignalHillHiker; Jul 22, 2016 at 12:52 PM.
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  #1023  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 3:08 PM
eternallyme eternallyme is offline
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
Lest one get too excited about a bit of good news re Ontario:

Ontario’s financial watchdog warns the province’s net debt will grow by another $50 billion to $350 billion in the next four years.

The Financial Accountability Office says the net debt will keep growing largely because of the Liberal government’s $160-billion, 12-year plan to invest in infrastructure and public transit projects.

The FAO says the debt will also grow because it predicts a return to annual budget deficits in 2018-19, even though the Liberals promise to balance the books next year.
...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle30980508/
The provincial government had better hope that the interest rate doesn't rise. Because if it gets back to normal from these historic lows, Ontario will either need to make enormous service cuts or risk default. At a 5% interest rate, that is $18 billion (at least) paying interest on the debt. For every percentage point increase, another $3.5 to $4 billion that only goes to bankers in China.
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  #1024  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 3:20 PM
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Governments don't necessarily pay market interest.
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  #1025  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 4:07 PM
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Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
The provincial government had better hope that the interest rate doesn't rise. Because if it gets back to normal from these historic lows, Ontario will either need to make enormous service cuts or risk default. At a 5% interest rate, that is $18 billion (at least) paying interest on the debt. For every percentage point increase, another $3.5 to $4 billion that only goes to bankers in China.
New rates only apply to new debt; existing debt won't be affected by any rate increase. This is because governments buy debt with fixed interest rate with very long terms (20-30+ years).

With so many countries going into actual debt crises, those jurisdictions that can make good on their bonds--like Ontario--can negotiate even better interest rates.
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  #1026  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 8:33 PM
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That massive increase in the BC budget also only tells half the storey.

The BC government also rakes in billions in PST and other taxes that are the direct result of the building frenzy. Remember huge numbers of the very expensive houses in Vancouver are tear downs by foreigners who won't live there...........monster houses require totally new construction from building supplies to refrigerators all subject to PST. Everywhere else in Canada a used home only gets PST from a reno but in BC from demolition and total new construction.

As reported earlier this year, the BC economy is now more reliant on real estate and housing construction than Alberta is on oil and natural gas. This is why the province will do everything in it's power to keep the frenzy going regardless of selling off the province to the highest bidder regardless of it's long term economic impact, quality of life, or lost dreams of the province's young people.
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  #1027  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 8:42 PM
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That's very sad. :/
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  #1028  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 9:35 PM
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The whole country will be in rough shape if real estate goes poof. That's sad.
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  #1029  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 9:52 PM
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Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
The whole country will be in rough shape if real estate goes poof. That's sad.
I wonder what the spillover effects will be in those parts of the country where real estate has not "bubbled"?
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  #1030  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I wonder what the spillover effects will be in those parts of the country where real estate has not "bubbled"?
Depends on how badly financial companies, consumer goods and
domestic services companies get hit, we'd probably get dragged into a recession coast to coast.
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  #1031  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 10:04 PM
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There's just so much personal wealth/investments being directed towards real estate right now that I don't think anyone won't feel the effects. Comes down to the severity of such an event.

The forum tends to centre around the end user of condos such as a Chinese person buying 5 condos or building a mansion while the billions of your savings being funneled through real estate capital managers who finance developers to purchase land, construct buildings and, also generate income through ownership to flip at a later date.

Last edited by WhipperSnapper; Jul 22, 2016 at 10:15 PM.
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  #1032  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 10:18 PM
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N.L. credit rating downgraded to lowest in Canada by bond rating agency Moody's

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A international credit ratings agency is painting a grim picture of Newfoundland and Labrador's finances, downgrading the province's credit rating to the make it the lowest in Canada, and keeping its outlook as negative.

Moody's announced Thursday it had downgraded the rating from Aa2 to Aa3, noting the amount it expects the province to spend on financing its debt will reach 12 per cent of total revenue by 2020, a level not seen in the province since 2004.

​Additionally, the province's net direct and indirect debt will reach 240 per cent, the highest forecast in the country, and internationally notable.

"It's in the upper portion of what we see for regional governments. There's very few regional governments that we rate around the world that have debt levels 200 per cent or above," said Michael Yake, a vice-president and senior analyst with Moody's.

Yake added Ontario had similar levels, but has taken steps to bring that under control.

"For a relatively small province such as Newfoundland and Labrador, a province that doesn't necessarily have the same economic diversity as Ontario or Quebec... 240 per cent [debt] to revenue is what we consider an exceptionally high level for the province."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfou...aded-1.3690848

"Relatively small" - compared to what? We're second smallest in population, it's not all that relative. Just small works. All of ye go out and buy a hummer FFS. lol
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  #1033  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 11:38 PM
eternallyme eternallyme is offline
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
N.L. credit rating downgraded to lowest in Canada by bond rating agency Moody's



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfou...aded-1.3690848

"Relatively small" - compared to what? We're second smallest in population, it's not all that relative. Just small works. All of ye go out and buy a hummer FFS. lol
It sounds like Newfoundland and Labrador is even more dependent on resource revenue and the resource economy than Alberta is...
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  #1034  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2016, 11:39 PM
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Yeah. We put all our eggs in one basket, but fuck, we only have one egg.
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  #1035  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2016, 1:47 AM
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Well, there's always Muskrat Falls.....
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  #1036  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2016, 2:12 AM
geotag277 geotag277 is offline
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In keeping with the conversation earlier:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...nada-1.3689450

I recommend to skip the rather vacuous realtor section gloating about selling 8 million condos which is irrelevant. A few choice quotes from later in the article:

Quote:
"In many ways we are still the strongest economy in the country, we have a higher fraction of our population employed than any other province — our earnings are much higher than any other province even today, so it is important not to lose that perspective."
Quote:
"Service sectors, health care, education — professional and scientific services — these are areas that are increasing their employment, so it is in areas like that where we are seeing a lot of the growth."
I don't think the average Albertan should be too concerned with the drop in GDP, which is obstinately partially a measure of how much oil and gas dominates our economy. We should be more focused on ensuring general employment can keep up. Unemployment numbers are bad in Alberta, but not too far off Canadian averages. We are reaching the point where oil and gas has been cut to the bone in many places and we might start to see alternative industries pick up the slack. Even now, despite unemployment rates, with our high participation rates Alberta has the highest % of population employed in Canada two years into the downturn.
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  #1037  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2016, 3:44 AM
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That's the reality I keep telling people when they talk about how Alberta still isn't getting equalization. It's far above the average, and will be for years, no matter what happens. The same is true of doomed Newfoundland and Labrador.
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  #1038  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2016, 5:40 AM
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Erstwhile Vancouver city council candidate, Sandy Garossino, calls out those who seek to play the race card in minimizing the effect of Mainland Chinese money on real estate:

....Anyone feeling chirpy about the rosy state of BC's economy should take a long hard look at Alberta, and never say "Never."

If you think the foundation of BC's economy is the resource sector of forestry, mining and oil and gas, give your head a shake. According to Business in Vancouver Metro Vancouver's residential real estate is by far the largest industry in the province, clocking in at $38.6 billion revenues in 2015. That's more than three times the size of mining, forestry and oil and gas, which have a combined value of $12.7 billion.
That's a lot of money, and it's a lot of risk.

China matters in Metro Vancouver's housing debate in the same way Saudi Arabia matters to Alberta. If Beijing sneezes, Vancouver will catch pneumonia, just as Alberta did when Saudi Arabia cut its oil prices by more than half.

Everyone who understands international finance knows of China's titanic struggle to contain its unprecedented capital outflow crisis, estimated by Bloomberg at $1 trillion US in 2015 alone. That's seven times larger than 2014.

By remarkable coincidence, 2015 was also the year that a mysterious wave drove Metro Vancouver's housing market into Ludicrous Mode™, with home prices rising 37 per cent year over year from May 2015 to 2016.

If the Chinese government ever throttles that gusher, Vancouver's real estate party will sober up overnight....

...When China cracked down on cash flowing through Macau's casino VIP rooms in 2015, that economy contracted 20 per cent in a single year. $46 billion evaporated from the market value of the casino industry....


http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016...-elephant-room
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  #1039  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2016, 7:19 AM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Yeah. We put all our eggs in one basket, but fuck, we only have one egg.
Newfoundland has strength in hydro, forest products, oceanography/deep water science, and tourism. Your tourism commercials are, by far, the best that come out of Canada. The NYC tourism ads are the only ones I've seen globally that pack as big of a punch. Cold water tech is something your province could dominate over time. This would be a good time to grow these other segments of your economy. Newfoundland has been too focused on energy but you do have more than one egg.
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  #1040  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2016, 9:15 AM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
That massive increase in the BC budget also only tells half the storey.

The BC government also rakes in billions in PST and other taxes that are the direct result of the building frenzy. Remember huge numbers of the very expensive houses in Vancouver are tear downs by foreigners who won't live there...........monster houses require totally new construction from building supplies to refrigerators all subject to PST. Everywhere else in Canada a used home only gets PST from a reno but in BC from demolition and total new construction.

As reported earlier this year, the BC economy is now more reliant on real estate and housing construction than Alberta is on oil and natural gas. This is why the province will do everything in it's power to keep the frenzy going regardless of selling off the province to the highest bidder regardless of it's long term economic impact, quality of life, or lost dreams of the province's young people.
Like Chadillaccc said, that's sad. More-over, its sadly not even political. I'm no Christy Clark fan, but almost any government party would prove incapable of limiting this kind of thing. It's almost genetic to the species to never turn down income, or give its people a necessary dose of hard reality, no matter the risk.

In fact, I feel a version of this on a personal level. I, like other Vancouver home owners find it incredibly difficult to think of what future scenerio is desirable. How can one get their head around losing a couple million in their assets? Most I talk to prefer to dream that everything will just somehow work its way around so that a)the market doesn't collapse, b) affordability is achieved, c) income/housing ratios become reasonable, and d) all our houses continue to be worth millions. It's utter nonsense,
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