Calgary as the next Detroit - Page 3

itom 987 · #41 Posted **Apr 23, 2017, 10:59 PM**

Calgary needs Edmonton, and Fort McMurray. Unfortunately Edmonton and Fort McMurray don't need Calgary. A large part of Calgary's success comes from the corporate welfare Calgary received from the Alberta Government.

itom 987 · #42 Posted **Apr 23, 2017, 11:01 PM**

Fort McMurray's 'road to nowhere' should eventually go up to Wood Buffalo National Park, and towards Yellowknife in the future.

balletomane · #43 Posted **Apr 23, 2017, 11:14 PM**

According to this website Calgary is home to two-thirds of Canada's coal producers and 87% of oil and gas producers. I thought coal was more of an eastern industry.

https://web.archive.org/web/20071013...ack/20366.html

wave46 · #44 Posted **Apr 23, 2017, 11:23 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by balletomane

According to this website Calgary is home to two-thirds of Canada's coal producers and 87% of oil and gas producers. I thought coal was more of an eastern industry.

https://web.archive.org/web/20071013...ack/20366.html

The only notable source of coal in Eastern Canada was Nova Scotia and that's pretty much all finished now. It's pretty much Saskatchewan westwards where the coal industry is located.

240glt · #45 Posted **Apr 23, 2017, 11:32 PM**

Deleted. T'was a little rude

esquire · #46 Posted **Apr 23, 2017, 11:37 PM**

It's almost impossible to imagine a scenario that plays out where Calgary turns out like Detroit that would be specific to that city... I mean, if Canada as a whole implodes I guess Calgary could become a mess too, but short of that I think they're in pretty good shape with their highly educated workforce and impressive range of corporate offices and HQs.

balletomane · #47 Posted **Apr 23, 2017, 11:42 PM**

I wonder what a Detroiter in 1940 would've thought if you told them that in a little over 10 years time, your city is going to begin a multi-decade decline, and half your city will be abandoned. The social factors at play in that city were different from Calgary's today, but I'm sure being the "arsenal of democracy", they would've felt that their city was an economic engine and would continue to be for as long as America lived.

This thread will be interesting to visit in a few years time, when it has long been lost in the nether regions of Skyscraperpage.

speedog · #48 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:08 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hackslack

There will always be demand for oil and natural gas. Do alternative energy sources create all the by products used in the world, every single day? So long as all these by-products are in demand, heavy oil from Canada's oil sands will be produced.

With the more and more demand for electric vehicles, what will power the ever increasing demand for electricity? I'd bet NG power generation will become more and more in demand. It's a cheap, clean source of power generation.

The only way I see calgary become a Detroit is if the Canadian government totally turns its back to one of the nations most important industry. But while manufacturing jobs, automotive industry and aerospace industry get government bail outs in their respective hard times, the O&G industry still deals to persevere, without the same support.

The exciting part about these downturns in Alberta is the technology that gets developed to make the extraction and transport of the O&G more cost effective, and environmentally friendly.

Oil and natural gas by products? Where do people think all their plastics come from, components for pavement, solvents, thinners, lubricants, sulphur that comes from sour gas us used in many things. Our current world would cease to operate if we all of a sudden stopped pulling oil and natural gas out of the ground.

mistercorporate · #49 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:21 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46

If I had to compare Calgary to an analogous US city, I'd suggest Dallas-Fort Worth or Houston.

Dallas (huge tech sector, military) and Houston (medical research, aerospace, tech, oil, numerous consumer products headquarters) are highly diversified cities, not an apt comparison.

O-tacular · #50 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:30 AM**

This doesn't sound like a bad idea for a thread at all....

Drybrain · #51 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:45 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by speedog

Oil and natural gas by products? Where do people think all their plastics come from, components for pavement, solvents, thinners, lubricants, sulphur that comes from sour gas us used in many things. Our current world would cease to operate if we all of a sudden stopped pulling oil and natural gas out of the ground.

There is no question that there will be demand for oil and gas products for a long time. The question is how much demand, and whether Canada's oil sector will be competitive in a world of reduced demand, once electrical-supply and transportation needs are met to a much greater degree by renewables.

O-tacular · #52 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:48 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by balletomane

My biggest fear for Calgary with a long-term decline in oil prices and reliance on oil are its many, brand new office towers. Some of those office towers are filled by single companies, petroleum companies, and if those companies go bankrupt or need to downsize, what will become of all that space?

That cheap new office space combined with a highly educated workforce is the reason a silicon valley tech company (waiting for the announcement of which company) is said to be moving here. Nenshi announced it a couple weeks back. Apparently it is their first foray into Canada.

lio45 · #53 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:49 AM**

The comparison makes sense, at the level of the metro area.

Of course, you won't see a donut effect for wealth like you did in the 1950s with white flight to the suburbs anymore... but that had nothing to do with the main industry slowing down: it happened in many cities during that period. You might want to note the Big Three were still booming while the City of Detroit had already started to lose population (to its suburbs).

The two phenomena were pretty independent, so the one of the two you're actually talking about (overreliance on one industry, which then starts to run into trouble, so the metro area experiences a relative decline compared to other cities) could probably end up happening to Calgary even more than it did to Detroit (because I believe oil's decline will be more drastic than the auto industry's).

O-tacular · #54 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:49 AM**

Double post.

lio45 · #55 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:53 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drybrain

There is no question that there will be demand for oil and gas products for a long time. The question is how much demand, and whether Canada's oil sector will be competitive in a world of reduced demand, once electrical-supply and transportation needs are met to a much greater degree by renewables.

Thing is, there are generally two types of use for petroleum products: the type that can't be recycled but can be replaced by renewable energy, and the type that can't be replaced by renewable energy but can be recycled.

speedog · #56 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:58 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

The comparison makes sense, at the level of the metro area.

Of course, you won't see a donut effect for wealth like you did in the 1950s with white flight to the suburbs anymore... but that had nothing to do with the main industry slowing down: it happened in many cities during that period. You might want to note the Big Three were still booming while the City of Detroit had already started to lose population (to its suburbs).

The two phenomena were pretty independent, so the one of the two you're actually talking about (overreliance on one industry, which then starts to run into trouble, so the metro area experiences a relative decline compared to other cities) could probably end up happening to Calgary even more than it did to Detroit (because I believe oil's decline will be more drastic than the auto industry's).

So what suburbs do you see as having the potential to gain population from Calgarians seeking to flee the city of Calgary?

balletomane · #57 Posted **Apr 24, 2017, 12:59 AM**

Calgary is not the only Canadian city that has been compared to Detroit.

http://www.troymedia.com/2014/11/20/...risome-future/

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...nidetroit.html

http://www.newgeography.com/content/...l-save-detroit

I think the first article raises a very important point, a city does die once the people stop believing in it. Times are changing for the better it seems, but Winnipeg seems focused on improving downtown and the suburbs, what about the in between? We could bring a new definition to the "donut-hole" city.

As much as hate to say it because I love Winnipeg, I still fear it could go the way of Detroit sometimes. It won't seem like it is declining, because our downtown will continue to improve and our suburbs will continue to grow. But, income inequality will continue to grow, and those neighborhoods in between the downtown area and the ~post-1970 suburbs will continue to decline, not necessarily in population, but overall quality of life. The life expectancy in Winnipeg's North End is 67, and in some suburbs as high as 83. Race tensions are also an issue, and as much as I hate that MacLeans had to sensationalize Winnipeg being "Canada's Most Racist City", which is also not quantifiable, its an issue nonetheless and not improving.

Calgary should it not learn the mistakes of single-industry cities, or attempt to further diversify its economy during times of "bust" will struggle if oil becomes a much less significant industry or if the Canadian oil industry fails to remain competitive.