YVR And Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[LeftCoaster]

Good news, glad to hear about AUS. Took it down to USGP and it was jammed, so busy we had to fly out of IAH to get back.

Here's how I see S24 Transborder at this point. Still changes to come I'm sure.

Also, not totally sure what's going on with CX and their flight to JFK. It was on at one point post covid but I'm thinking they are not doing it anymore?

[nname]

CX to JFK won't be back

Some correction here:

AC- BOS 6, HNL 7, OGG 0, KOA 0, EWR 7 (789), SAN 21 (CR9), SEA 35
UA- LAX 14 (320), DEN 28
AS- SEA 42 (35 E75 + 7 737), PDX 7
AA- DFW 18
DL- SLC 14 (E75)
F8- LAS 4, SFO 7
B6- BOS 7 (320)
SY- MSP 4 (737)
WS- ATL 14, SNA 4, SAN 4, MCO 2

WS haven't update their summer schedule yet, the above is best guess based on June schedule, which was already updated. Also based on June schedule, both LAX/LAS should be around 12-14, OGG 4-7, PHX 0-4, ...

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Also, not totally sure what's going on with CX and their flight to JFK. It was on at one point post covid but I'm thinking they are not doing it anymore?

CX announced in September 2019 that YVR-JFK would be cut by April 2020. And that’s exactly what happened. The route was losing money for years. And that came directly from a CX senior VP at the time.

The possible return was hinted at last year, and was COVID related (similar to why SQ returned to YVR). The main difference was there wouldn’t be 5th freedom rights on YVR-JFK.

We know how SQ’s Canadian venture 2.0. unfolded, and since there are no more COVID related policies that provide the motive for such flights, it’s highly unlikely CX returns either.

[jollyburger]

Assume this never happened? February 2023

Sounds like it might have been due to Russian air space restrictions.

The coming summer could see unusual traffic patterns for Cathay Pacific‘s traffic to and from the United States. In a regulatory filing with the US Department of Transportation the carrier suggests it may operate flights via Taipei, as well as a Vancouver option, to move travelers between the US and Hong Kong in the coming summer.

The Vancouver routing to JFK Airport in New York City is not entirely new, though the proposed approach is very different from before. In the past the carrier operated the flight on a schedule that allowed passengers to easily fly on same-plane service via Vancouver or to take either leg individually. The proposed times on the new schedule see the aircraft sit for 12-20 hours.

That is not a schedule conducive to carrying passengers via Vancouver for the full trip. It may, however, work better for crew timings to operate the flights on that schedule.

It is also worth noting that the carrier applied to operate via Vancouver during part of the 2022 summer. That never materialized as filed. And there are no guarantees this one does, either. One significant difference is that Cathay appears keen to carry local traffic between Vancouver and New York with the proposed timings.

https://paxex.aero/cathay-pacific-vancouver-taipei-usa/

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Good news, glad to hear about AUS. Took it down to USGP and it was jammed, so busy we had to fly out of IAH to get back.

Here's how I see S24 Transborder at this point. Still changes to come I'm sure.

Also, not totally sure what's going on with CX and their flight to JFK. It was on at one point post covid but I'm thinking they are not doing it anymore?

another correction >> https://biv.com/article/2023/11/flai...couver-service

Flair Airlines announces increases to Vancouver service
Airline plans to launch Vancouver's first non-stop route to Guadalajara since 2004
November 1, 2023, 12:24pm

Flair Airlines plans to increase service from YVR to Las Vegas, Puerto Vallarta and San Francisco. It will then launch a new route between YVR and Guadalajara, Mexico, twice weekly starting May 31.

Flair flights between YVR and Las Vegas are also increasing: to four-to-seven times per week until May 4, which is up from three-to-five times per week in the 2022-2023 winter season. Those flights in summer 2024 are set to be four-to-seven times per week, up from two-to-three times per week this past summer.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

Assume this never happened? February 2023

Sounds like it might have been due to Russian air space restrictions.



https://paxex.aero/cathay-pacific-vancouver-taipei-usa/

HKG-JFK is only around 500nm (~1h10min) longer with the detour around Russia. Same thing for the flight to BOS. It's not a big deal, and perfectly doable non stop. There might be slight payload restrictions westbound, depending on winds aloft and aircraft type used, but CX clearly feels the non stops to JFK/BOS are still worth it.

Similar story with YYZ/YUL-DEL.

The 787s, A350s and 77Ws are beasts. It's amazing how far they can fly with a meaningful payload.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

Assume this never happened? February 2023

Sounds like it might have been due to Russian air space restrictions.



https://paxex.aero/cathay-pacific-vancouver-taipei-usa/

Yeah that's why I had it on my list, at one point I thought it was going, but I guess not.

nname thanks for all the updates, didn't know about the dreamliner change for EWR, I just flew the route a month ago and got a max

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

another correction >> https://biv.com/article/2023/11/flai...couver-service

Flair Airlines announces increases to Vancouver service
Airline plans to launch Vancouver's first non-stop route to Guadalajara since 2004
November 1, 2023, 12:24pm

Flair Airlines plans to increase service from YVR to Las Vegas, Puerto Vallarta and San Francisco. It will then launch a new route between YVR and Guadalajara, Mexico, twice weekly starting May 31.

Flair flights between YVR and Las Vegas are also increasing: to four-to-seven times per week until May 4, which is up from three-to-five times per week in the 2022-2023 winter season. Those flights in summer 2024 are set to be four-to-seven times per week, up from two-to-three times per week this past summer.

Thanks, I couldn't figure out why you were correcting me, but then I realized I accidentally crossed out Las Vegas and left in Los Angeles, whoops!

[owenf]

any update on the ZIPAIR NRT-YVR flight? they said the exact date/time of the route would be specified in early December but nothing has been announced further yet.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Good news, glad to hear about AUS. Took it down to USGP and it was jammed, so busy we had to fly out of IAH to get back.

Here's how I see S24 Transborder at this point. Still changes to come I'm sure.

Also, not totally sure what's going on with CX and their flight to JFK. It was on at one point post covid but I'm thinking they are not doing it anymore?

Again, thank you for the Transborder chart. Got one for overseas destinations? That might be interesting, too.
(I wonder if Air India will ever start its new A350 flights to YVR? We're their seventh largest market, apparently.)


https://simpleflying.com/air-india-d...s-summer-2023/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScacRANKXn4

[nname]

Originally Posted by nname

CX to JFK won't be back

Some correction here:

AC- BOS 6, HNL 7, OGG 0, KOA 0, EWR 7 (789), SAN 21 (CR9), SEA 35
UA- LAX 14 (320), DEN 28
AS- SEA 42 (35 E75 + 7 737), PDX 7
AA- DFW 18
DL- SLC 14 (E75)
F8- LAS 4, SFO 7
B6- BOS 7 (320)
SY- MSP 4 (737)
WS- ATL 14, SNA 4, SAN 4, MCO 2

WS haven't update their summer schedule yet, the above is best guess based on June schedule, which was already updated. Also based on June schedule, both LAX/LAS should be around 12-14, OGG 4-7, PHX 0-4, ...

And... AC always update schedule when there is some discussion...

Latest transborder changes:
BOS cancelled
EWR back to 2x daily 7M8
DEN upgauge to 2x daily 320
ANC season run reduced to from mid-May and extend to end by end of Sept
SFO reduce to 28x weekly (14x 7M8 + 14x 320)
PHX downgauge to 2x daily CR9
ORD upgauge to 1x daily 7M8

Domestic changes:
YQB becomes mainline 7M8 3x weekly, increase to 4x by mid-June
YOW once again operate with 789 for 1 of 3 daily

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

And... AC always update schedule when there is some discussion...

Latest transborder changes:
BOS cancelled

Clearly as a result of B6 entering the market. Too bad.

The westbound flights had similar timings on both carriers, but AC's departure time to BOS was better for YVR originating passengers. B6 is a redeye.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Clearly as a result of B6 entering the market. Too bad.

The westbound flights had similar timings on both carriers, but AC's departure time to BOS was better for YVR originating passengers. B6 is a redeye.

I think YVR-BOS wasn't performing well even before B6 joined, as they were keep reducing the season. Last year AC switch to similar red-eye timing as B6, but with awful arrival time at BOS at 4am. Either they were trying something new to save the route, or already giving up on it? But yeah, it's not surprising for them to cancel BOS and move resource to IAD, as it is a much better performer.

Anyways, with update on YQB and AUS, now the combined morning 7M8 departure of YQB/AUS/MIA/PVR/CUN still shows some slacks:
May: days 57, and 2357
Jun-Oct: days 7, days 23567

Clearly the June increase of AUS at day 4 and YQB at day 1 means AC will be putting an extra plane at YVR. So likely there's something new in the work? What could it be...

Alternatively they could remove day 14 from MIA and reduce it back to 2x weekly, as the increase is not mentioned in the PR:
https://media.aircanada.com/2023-12-...Network-Growth

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

I think YVR-BOS wasn't performing well even before B6 joined, as they were keep reducing the season. Last year AC switch to similar red-eye timing as B6, but with awful arrival time at BOS at 4am. Either they were trying something new to save the route, or already giving up on it? But yeah, it's not surprising for them to cancel BOS and move resource to IAD, as it is a much better performer.

Anyways, with update on YQB and AUS, now the combined morning 7M8 departure of YQB/AUS/MIA/PVR/CUN still shows some slacks:
May: days 57, and 2357
Jun-Oct: days 7, days 23567

Clearly the June increase of AUS at day 4 and YQB at day 1 means AC will be putting an extra plane at YVR. So likely there's something new in the work? What could it be...

Alternatively they could remove day 14 from MIA and reduce it back to 2x weekly, as the increase is not mentioned in the PR:
https://media.aircanada.com/2023-12-...Network-Growth

UA no doubts helps on YVR-IAD. AC had no one at BOS. Still surprised the route didn't work. O&D well over 85,000 + all the TPAC connections available. You'd think the Max would make it viable. B6 definitely didn't help.

The slack in the 7M8 fleet could be AC keeping it's options open to resume YVR-KOA/OGG in the summer perhaps? (don't even know if they did that in the past). What else could it be in the US? If BOS struggled with O&D over 85,000, and they're having a hard time upping frequency on MIA, I fail to see what else they can launch on the eastern seabord. Definitely not PHL. Can't see FLL either. It would eat into MIA, plus that's more a winter seasonal route anyways for YVR. Could be more domestic perhaps, or west coast US/Hawaii.

It is indeed weird the YVR-MIA increase wasn't mentioned in today's PR.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

UA no doubts helps on YVR-IAD. AC had no one at BOS. Still surprised the route didn't work. O&D well over 85,000 + all the TPAC connections available. You'd think the Max would make it viable. B6 definitely didn't help.

The slack in the 7M8 fleet could be AC keeping it's options open to resume YVR-KOA/OGG in the summer perhaps? (don't even know if they did that in the past). What else could it be in the US? If BOS struggled with O&D over 85,000, and they're having a hard time upping frequency on MIA, I fail to see what else they can launch on the eastern seabord. Definitely not PHL. Can't see FLL either. It would eat into MIA, plus that's more a winter seasonal route anyways for YVR. Could be more domestic perhaps, or west coast US/Hawaii.

It is indeed weird the YVR-MIA increase wasn't mentioned in today's PR.

OGG is normally done with red-eye evening departure during summer.
Westcoast US probably better to use Express to start?
FLL/MCO is not the right season to launch.
Any sun route like KOA is too much with 4-5x weekly during summer, but perhaps it can use the other slot on day 57? Maybe AC is waiting to see how TQO performs from YYZ and YUL first...

Given YQB is 4x weekly, the only route I can think of that's worthy of 4-5x weekly at launch is probably domestic route like YXU or YYT.

On the other hand, noticed AC just moved the KIX operating days from mid-June. Perhaps something is brewing on the long-haul front. Maybe AC will increasing PVG to 6x weekly, since the free slot on day 35 now lines up with the PVG schedule. Since Chinese airlines are operating 6x weekly to Canada, I always wonder who's holding the other 2x weekly that prevents AC from operating 6x weekly to PVG...

For non-AC news.. PD is increasing YVR-YOW to 2x daily starting May 4, among with other YOW increases.

[Chikinlittle]

Anybody know anything about Egypt Air being at YVR this morning?

Aircraft SU-GDL, arrived in from CAI and scheduled out shortly.

Doesn’t show on the airport arrival/departure boards, nor on Egypt Air’s website.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Chikinlittle

Anybody know anything about Egypt Air being at YVR this morning?

Aircraft SU-GDL, arrived in from CAI and scheduled out shortly.

Doesn’t show on the airport arrival/departure boards, nor on Egypt Air’s website.

They’re charter flights. Inbound migrants.

https://portail-portal.otc-cta.gc.ca...-agency/434056

I think they had one last August as well, according to aeroroutes. To YYC and YEG as well. All using the same flight number.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/230814-msaug23ca

They had one to YHZ last month as well.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/231120-msnov23yhz

[osirisboy]

Ok but shouldn’t charter flights still show up on the arrival/departure boards?

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

Ok but shouldn’t charter flights still show up on the arrival/departure boards?

Usually they don't. Think of all the sports charter flights as well. NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, MLS, etc. Usually they don't show up on the boards either.

[zahav]

Maybe AC will launch a GDL route with the spare 737, it would be a good route to use that aircraft type on, and not need a fully 7x weekly. Knock Flair out when they start theirs? Or maybe OGG will be back, I think things are picking up there.

Just noticed Alaska has added a mainline flight to SEA, which they have done here and there over the years. 737 with a 2pm departure. Horizon Air has fully assumed the Alaska livery, has been the case for some time. They used to have a totally different livery from Alaska, nothing really linked them visually. They are all branded as Alaska now, so we do see a lot of Alaska planes, they are just regional jets instead of full jets.

AC/UA combined will only operate full mainline jets on SFO, LAX, DEN, and IAH now (regional jets on express don't count). There had usually been the odd UA Express flight or Jazz flight for at least one of the locations. UA will only operate 737 at YVR for the summer (not sure the specific 737 variants used, just that they'll all be 737). Used to be a huge mix of 319/320/737/CRA, but now all 737. Air Canada swapped the PHX mainline jets over to DEN, and then gave PHX the CRAs just shows that DEN is a bigger draw, even with four UA mainline flights. I thought after AA pulled out, AC would need to put a lot of capacity there. But I guess the tourism market drops off a cliff in the summer, and they aren't a connecting base whatsoever, so two CRAs is all it can absorb.

Double daily to EWR is a good add, even if it came at the expense of BOS. BOS was always going to be weaker for the reasons people already mentioned, so let B6 have it and put more capacity on EWR.