Probably one issue that is pretty underrated in terms of importance in Metro Vancouver is Industrial Land Shortage.
https://www.portvancouver.com/wp-con...nomics-Ltd.pdf
"Consequences of Industrial Land Shortage on Metro Vancouver Region... Massive loss of jobs, in a region with a persistently weak economy and relatively small office employment component"
"Metro Vancouver will clearly run out of industrial land within the next 15 to 20 years It will run out of logistics oriented and required lands in less than 10 years" Note that it's not just warehouses that need Industrial Land, but Film Studios, and tech hubs. And no more land appears to be coming in on the horizon.
https://biv.com/article/2018/04/vanc...-decade-closes
"Metro Vancouver’s industrial vacancy rate is a tight
1.9% , according to Colliers International, well below the five-year average of 3% and one of the lowest in North America."
Densification is NOT realistic http://www.metrovancouver.org/servic...rMarch2013.pdf
"The analysis reveals that this project would be feasible and support current market land values ($1.4 million per acre of serviced industrial land) if
net rents were $22.5 per sq.ft. which is far higher than any industrial market in North America. The land value would have to be much higher than current market and equate to land which is zoned for retail and commercial and much higher value land uses." No, you can't build more levels to Industrial land; it just doesn't make economic sense, and unlike residents, they can move elsewhere if they please; which is happening as industrial land gets more scarce where it is needed (specifically near Transportation lines and Rivers)
New Industrial Land parcels remain in Hazelmere and Golden Ears Park, but are not suitable for logistics use due to their large distance from...everything, really. Meanwhile, more industrial land is being lost- Brentwood and the Ioco Lands are clear examples of this. There's simply not enough incentive for municipalities to zone Industrial; on the short term, condos generate much more money.
Where to build? Obviously zoning into suburban or Urban land is unrealistic. That land is lost forever.
The only remaining parcels of land are out in the Suburbs. This gives us two options:
Zone outside the ALR
http://images.dailyhive.com/20160531...signations.jpg
There is a fair amount of land in Metro Vancouver neither developed nor ALR; most particularly in Langley and Maple Ridge. Willoughby is most likely too late to stop urbanization. Maple Ridge around 256 St, the Silver Valley, and Ruskin is not included within the ALR; however, like the Industrial land in Hazelmere, simply lack any real connections to...anywhere; not good for industrial zoning.
Unless an expressway across Maple Ridge was built, it's not going to happen.
Langley is more promising; the Salmon River Uplands has remained in a Limbo for decades, with its lot sizes not large enough for effective agriculture, but not technically completely out of the ALR. Langley has made numerous proposals to move the area entirely out of the ALR, and Metro Vancouver designates the area as 'rural' (ie out of the ALR, but outside the Urban Containment Boundary).
http://images.dailyhive.com/20160531...signations.jpg
It has great location to the Freeway, and could be a viable location for Industrial logistical uses. However, the area is partially suburbanized already, and an area in the North would likely be reserved for Trinity Western's 'University District'.
The area near 0 Avenue has the same problems and advantages.
Inside ALR
If we include land in the ALR, we have plenty new options. Delta in particular would probably become the prime target; potentially also areas like Barnston Island. This is (understandably) going to not be viewed that well. However, the Tsawwassen First Nations created a precedent for similar treaty processes in the Future. This is a potential threat to the ALR; but is an opportunity for both the industrial land market and the tribal governments themselves. The Katzie could get control of Barnston Island, and develop that area as an industrial park.
Protecting Current Industrial Land
In order to stop the decrease in Industrial Land stock in Metro Vancouver, I also propose an "Industrial Land Reserve". This will preserve Industrial Land, preventing Municipalities from short-sightedly reducing the stock of Industrial land to increase tax revenue- with the sole exception of if the industry is located in a strategic location near rapid Transit (Scott Road, Brentwood- keeping Brentwood industrial is kind of a waste of the Millennium Line- and that's part of the point of Skytrain.)
We need to make sure that Metro Vancouver has a future- and to do that, we need more than just condo towers.
Thoughts below?
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